Search Results (4,316)

Amid China’s national strategic prioritization of the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle and accelerated territorial spatial planning, this study deciphered the synergistic evolution of Land Use Intensity (LUI) and Balance Degree of Land Use Structure (BDLUS) during rapid urbanization. Leveraging 1 km grid units and integrating emerging spatiotemporal hotspot analysis, BFAST, and geographic detectors, we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of LUI, BDLUS, and their Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) from 2000 to 2022. Key findings: (1) LUI strongly correlated with economic growth, with core areas reaching high-intensity development (average > 2.96) versus ecologically constrained marginal zones (<2.42), marked by abrupt changes during 2011–2014; (2) BDLUS improvements covered 82.22% of the study area, driven by the Yangtze River Economic Belt strategy (21.96% hotspot concentration), yet structural imbalance persisted in transitional zones (18.81% cold spots); (3) CCD exhibited center-edge dichotomy, contrasting high-value cores (CCD > 0.68) with ecologically sensitive edges (9.80% cold spots), peaking in regulatory shifts around 2010; (4) terrain constraints and intensified human activities (the interaction effect between nighttime lighting and population density increased by 219.49% after 2020) jointly governed coupling mechanisms, with urbanization and industrial transition becoming dominant drivers. This research advances an “intensity–structure–coordination” framework and elucidates “dual-core resonance” dynamics, offering theoretical foundations for spatial optimization and ecological civilization. Full article

In this study, we consider monthly load forecasting, which is an essential decision for energy infrastructure planning and investment. This study focuses on the Texas power grid, where electricity consumption has surged due to rising industrial activity and the increased construction of data centers driven by growing demand for AI. Based on an extensive exploratory data analysis, we identify key characteristics of monthly electricity demand in Texas, including an accelerating upward trend, strong seasonality, and temperature sensitivity. In response, we propose a regression-based forecasting model that incorporates a carefully designed set of input features, including a nonlinear trend, lagged demand variables, a seasonality-adjusted month variable, average temperature of a representative area, and calendar-based proxies for industrial activity. We adopt a rolling forecasting approach, generating 12-month-ahead forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 using monthly data from 2013 onward. Comparative experiments against benchmarks including Holt–Winters, SARIMA, Prophet, RNN, LSTM, Transformer, Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost show that the proposed model achieves superior performance with a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 2%. The results indicate that a well-designed regression approach can effectively outperform even the latest machine learning methods in monthly load forecasting. Full article

Accurate evaluation of the operational status of smart meters, as the critical interface between the power grid and its users, is essential for ensuring fairness in power transactions. This highlights the importance of implementing rotation management practices based on meter status. However, the traditional expiration-based rotation method has become inadequate due to the extended service life of modern smart meters, necessitating a shift toward status-driven targeted management. Existing multifactor comprehensive assessment methods often face challenges in balancing accuracy and interpretability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel method for analyzing the status of smart meter groups using an interpretable random forest model. The approach incorporates an expert-knowledge-guided grouping assessment strategy, develops a multi-source heterogeneous feature set with strong correlations to meter status, and enhances the random forest model with the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) interpretability framework. Compared to conventional methods, the proposed approach demonstrates superior efficiency and reliability in predicting the failure rates of smart meter groups within distribution network areas, offering robust support for the maintenance and management of smart meters. Full article

As a discontinuous deformation method, the block element method (BEM) characterizes a material’s elastoplastic behavior through the constitutive relation of thin-layer elements between adjacent blocks. To realistically simulate rock damage paths, this work improves the traditional BEM by using random Voronoi polygonal grids for discrete modeling. This approach mitigates the distortion of damage paths caused by regular grids through the randomness of the Voronoi grids. As the innovation of this work, the iterative algorithm is combined with polygonal geometric features so that the area–perimeter fractal dimension can be introduced to optimize random Voronoi grids. The iterative control index can effectively improve the geometric characteristics of the grid while maintaining the necessary randomness. On this basis, a constitutive relation model that considers both normal and tangential damage is proposed. The entire process from damage initiation to macroscopic fracture failure in rocks is described using two independent damage surfaces and a damage relationship based on geometric mapping relationships. The analysis results are in good agreement with existing experimental data. Furthermore, the sensitivity method is used to analyze the influence of key mechanical parameters in the constitutive model. Full article

Accurate forecasting of river siltation is essential for ensuring inland waterway navigability and guiding sustainable sediment management. This study investigates the downstream reach of the Shihutang navigation power hub along the Ganjiang River in Jiangxi Province, China, an area characterized by pronounced seasonal sedimentation and hydrological variability. To enable fine-scale prediction, we developed a data-driven framework using a random forest regression model that integrates high-resolution bathymetric surveys with hydrological and meteorological observations. Based on the field data from April to July 2024, the model was trained to forecast monthly siltation volumes at a 30 m grid scale over a six-month horizon (July–December 2024). The results revealed a marked increase in siltation from July to September, followed by a decline during the winter months. The accumulation of sediment, combined with falling water levels, was found to significantly reduce the channel depth and width, particularly in the upstream sections, posing a potential risk to navigation safety. This study presents an initial, yet promising attempt to apply machine learning for spatially explicit siltation prediction in data-constrained river systems. The proposed framework provides a practical tool for early warning, targeted dredging, and adaptive channel management. Full article

Accurate prediction of airport delays under convective weather conditions is essential for effective traffic coordination and improving overall airport efficiency. Traditional methods mainly rely on numerical weather and traffic indicators, but they often fail to capture the spatial distribution of traffic flows within the terminal area. To address this limitation, we propose a novel image-based representation named Multi-Channel Traffic and Weather Scene Image (MTWSI), which maps both meteorological and traffic information onto a two-dimensional airspace grid, thereby preserving spatial relationships. Based on the MTWSI, we develop a delay prediction model named ADLCNN. This model first uses a convolutional neural network to extract deep spatial features from the scene images and then classifies each sample into a delay level. Using real operational data from Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, this paper shows that ADLCNN achieves significantly higher prediction accuracy compared to traditional machine learning methods. The results confirm that MTWSI provides a more accurate representation of real traffic conditions under convective weather. Full article

Floating solar technology has gained significant attention as part of the global expansion of renewable energy due to its potential for installation in underutilized water bodies. Several countries, including the Netherlands, have initiated efforts to extend this technology from inland freshwater applications to open offshore environments, particularly within offshore wind farm areas. This development is motivated by the synergistic benefits of increasing site energy density and leveraging the existing offshore grid infrastructure. The deployment of offshore floating photovoltaic (OFPV) systems involves assembling multiple modular units in a marine environment, introducing operational risks that may give rise to safety concerns. To mitigate these risks, weather windows must be considered prior to the task execution to ensure continuity between weather-sensitive activities, which can also lead to additional time delays and increased costs. Consequently, optimizing marine logistics becomes crucial to achieving the cost reductions necessary for making OFPV technology economically viable. This study employs a simulation-based approach to estimate the installation duration of a 5 MWp OFPV plant at a Dutch offshore wind farm site, started in different months and under three distinct risk management scenarios. Based on 20 years of hindcast wave data, the results reveal the impacts of campaign start months and risk management policies on installation duration. Across all the scenarios, the installation duration during the autumn and winter period is 160% longer than the one in the spring and summer period. The average installation durations, based on results from 12 campaign start months, are 70, 80, and 130 days for the three risk management policies analyzed. The result variation highlights the additional time required to mitigate operational risks arising from potential discontinuity between highly interdependent tasks (e.g., offshore platform assembly and mooring). Additionally, it is found that the weather-induced delays are mainly associated with the campaigns of pre-laying anchors and platform and mooring line installation compared with the other campaigns. In conclusion, this study presents a logistics modeling methodology for OFPV systems, demonstrated through a representative case study based on a state-of-the-art truss-type design. The primary contribution lies in providing a framework to quantify the performance of OFPV installation strategies at an early design stage. The findings of this case study further highlight that marine installation logistics are highly sensitive to local marine conditions and the chosen installation strategy, and should be integrated early in the OFPV design process to help reduce the levelized cost of electricity. Full article

Identifying habitat characteristics is essential for conserving critically endangered species. When quantifying species habitat characteristics, ignoring data types may lead to misunderstandings about species’ specific habitat requirements. This study focused on the critically endangered Chinese pangolin in Guangdong Province, China, and divided the study area into 600 m × 600 m grids based on its average home range. The burrow number within each grid was obtained through line transect surveys, with burrow numbers/line transect lengths used as direct indicators of habitat utilization intensity. The relationships with sixteen environmental variables, which could be divided into three categories, including topographic, human disturbance and land cover composition, were quantified using the GAM method. We also converted continuous data into binary data (0, 1), constructed GAMs and compared them with habitat utilization intensity models. Our results indicate that the habitat utilization intensity model identified profile curvature and slope as primary factors, showing a nonlinear response to profile curvature (Edf = 5.610, p = 0.014) and a positive relationship with slope (Edf = 1.000, p = 0.006). The presence–absence model emphasized distance to water (Edf = 1.000, p = 0.014), slope (Edf = 1.709, p = 0.043) and aspect (Edf = 2.000, p = 0.026). The intensity model explained significantly more deviance, captured complex nonlinear relationships and supported higher model complexity without overfitting. This study demonstrates that habitat utilization intensity data provides a more ecologically informative basis for in situ conservation (e.g., identifying core habitats), and the process from habitat selection to habitat utilization should be integrated to reveal species’ habitat characteristics. Full article

In this study, we evaluated the spatial variability in droplet deposition in herbicide applications using a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) in pasture areas. The investigation was conducted in a square grid (50.0 m × 50.0 m), with 121 sampling points, at two operational flight heights (3.0 and 4.0 m). Droplet deposition was quantified using the fluorescent dye rhodamine B, and the droplet spectrum was characterised using water-sensitive paper tags. Geostatistical analysis was implemented to characterise spatial dependence, complemented by multivariate statistical analysis. Droplet deposition ranged from 1.01 to 9.02 and 1.10–6.10 μL cm⁻² at 3.0 and 4.0 m flight heights, respectively, with the coefficients of variation between 19.72 and 23.06% for droplet spectrum parameters. All droplet spectrum parameters exhibited a moderate to strong spatial dependence (relative nugget effect ≤75%) and a predominance of adjustment to the exponential model, with spatial dependence indices ranging from 12.55 to 47.49% between the two flight heights. Significant positive correlations were observed between droplet deposition and droplet spectrum parameters (r = 0.60–0.79 at 3.0 m; r = 0.37–0.66 at 4.0 m), with the correlation magnitude decreasing as the operational flight height increased. Cross-validation indices demonstrated acceptable accuracy in spatial prediction, with a mean estimation error ranging from −0.030 to 0.044 and a root mean square error ranging from 0.81 to 2.25 across parameters and flight heights. Principal component analysis explained 99.14 and 85.72% of the total variation at 3.0 and 4.0 m flight heights, respectively. The methodological integration of geostatistics and multivariate statistics provides a comprehensive understanding of the spatial variability in droplet deposition, with relevant implications for the optimisation of phytosanitary applications performed using RPAs. Full article

The increasing demand for electricity in multi-tenanted residential areas has placed unforeseen strain on sub-transformers, particularly in dense urban environments. This strain compromises overall grid performance and challenges utilities with shifting and rising peak demand periods. This study presents a novel approach to enhance the operation of a virtual power plant (VPP) comprising a microgrid (MG) integrated with renewable energy sources (RESs) and energy storage systems (ESSs). By employing an advanced monitoring and control system, the proposed topology enables efficient energy management and demand-side control within apartment complexes. The system supports controlled electricity distribution, reducing the likelihood of unpredictable demand spikes and alleviating stress on local infrastructure during peak periods. Additionally, the model capitalizes on the large number of tenancies to distribute electricity effectively, leveraging locally available RESs and ESSs behind the sub-transformer. The proposed research provides a systematic framework for managing electricity demand and optimizing resource utilization, contributing to grid reliability and a transition toward a more sustainable, decentralized energy system. Full article

Accurate accounting of residual film recovery operation areas is essential for supporting targeted implementation of white pollution control policies in cotton fields and serves as a critical foundation for data-driven prevention and control of soil contamination. To address the reliance on manual screening during preprocessing in traditional residual film recovery area calculation methods, this study proposes a DBSCAN-MFI field-road trajectory segmentation method. This approach combines DBSCAN density clustering with multi-feature inference. Building on DBSCAN clustering, the method incorporates a convex hull completion strategy and multi-feature inference rules utilizing speed-direction feature filtering to automatically identify and segment field and road areas, enabling precise operation area calculation. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to DBSCAN, OPTICS, the Grid-Based Method, and the DBSCAN-FR algorithm, the proposed algorithm improves the F1-Score by 7.01%, 7.13%, 7.28%, and 4.27%, respectively. Regarding the impact on operation area calculation, segmentation accuracy increased by 23.61%, 25.14%, 20.71%, and 6.87%, respectively. This study provides an effective solution for accurate field-road segmentation during mechanical residual film recovery operations to facilitate subsequent calculation of the recovered area. Full article

Background: Unlike most cancers, breast cancer poses a persistent risk of distant recurrence—often years after initial treatment—making long-term risk stratification uniquely challenging. Current tools fall short in predicting late metastatic events, particularly for early-stage patients. Methods: We present an interpretable machine learning (ML) pipeline to predict distant recurrence-free survival at 5, 10, and 15 years, integrating Bayesian network-based causal feature selection, deep feed-forward neural network models (DNMs), and SHAP-based interpretation. Using electronic health record (EHR)-based clinical data from over 6000 patients, we first applied the Markov blanket and interactive risk factor learner (MBIL) to identify minimally sufficient predictor subsets. These were then used to train optimized DNM classifiers, with hyperparameters tuned via grid search and benchmarked against models from 10 traditional ML methods and models trained using all predictors. Results: Our best models achieved area under the curve (AUC) scores of 0.79, 0.83, and 0.89 for 5-, 10-, and 15-year predictions, respectively—substantially outperforming baselines. MBIL reduced input dimensionality by over 80% without sacrificing accuracy. Importantly, MBIL-selected features (e.g., nodal status, hormone receptor expression, tumor size) overlapped strongly with top SHAP contributors, reinforcing interpretability. Calibration plots further demonstrated close agreement between predicted probabilities and observed recurrence rates. The percentage performance improvement due to grid search ranged from 25.3% to 60%. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that combining causal selection, deep learning, and grid search improves prediction accuracy, transparency, and calibration for long-horizon breast cancer recurrence risk. The proposed framework is well-positioned for clinical use, especially to guide long-term follow-up and therapy decisions in early-stage patients. Full article

Small towns in mountainous regions face significant challenges in formulating effective landscape zoning strategies due to pronounced landscape fragmentation, which is driven by both the dominance of large-scale forest resources and the lack of coordination between administrative planning departments. To tackle this problem, this study focused on Yuqian, a quintessential small mountainous town in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. The town’s layout was divided into a grid network measuring 70 m × 70 m. A two-step cluster process was employed using ArcGIS and SPSS software to analyze five landscape variables: altitude, slope, land use, heritage density, and visual visibility. Further, eCognition software’s semi-automated segmentation technique, complemented by manual adjustments, helped delineate landscape character types and areas. The overlay analysis integrated these areas with administrative village units, identifying four landscape character types across 35 character areas, which were recategorized into four planning and management zones: urban comprehensive service areas, agricultural and cultural tourism development areas, industrial development growth areas, and mountain forest ecological conservation areas. This result optimizes the current zoning types. These zones closely match governmental sustainable development zoning requirements. Based on these findings, we propose integrated landscape management and conservation strategies, including the cautious expansion of urban areas, leveraging agricultural and cultural tourism, ensuring industrial activities do not impact the natural and village environment adversely, and prioritizing ecological conservation in sensitive areas. This approach integrates spatial and administrative dimensions to enhance landscape connectivity and resource sustainability, providing key guidance for small town development in mountainous regions with unique environmental and cultural contexts. Full article

Access to clean cooking remains a major challenge in rural and off-grid areas where traditional fuels are costly, harmful, or scarce. Solar cooking offers a sustainable solution, but many existing systems suffer from fixed positioning and low efficiency. This study presents a low-cost, dual-axis solar tracking parabolic dish cooker designed for such regions, featuring adjustable pot holder height and portability for ease of use. The system uses an Arduino UNO, LDR sensors, and a DC gear motor to automate sun tracking, ensuring optimal alignment throughout the day. A 0.61 m parabolic dish with ≥97% reflective silver-coated mirrors concentrates sunlight to temperatures exceeding 300 °C. Performance tests in April, June, and November showed boiling times as low as 3.37 min in high-irradiance conditions (7.66 kWh/m²/day) and 6.63 min under lower-irradiance conditions (3.86 kWh/m²/day). Compared to fixed or single-axis systems, this design achieved higher thermal efficiency and reliability, even under partially cloudy skies. Built with locally available materials, the system offers an affordable, clean, and effective cooking solution that supports energy access, health, and sustainability in underserved communities. Full article

Wave deformation and sediment transport nearest the shoreside are among the main reasons for sand erosion and beach profile changes. In particular, identifying the areas of incident-wave breaking and longshore current generation parallel to the shoreline is important for understanding the morphological changes of coastal beaches. In this study, a two-phase incompressible flow model along with a sandy sloping topography was employed to investigate the wave deformation and longshore current generation areas in a circular wave basin model. The finite volume method (FVM) was implemented to discretize the governing equations in cylindrical coordinates, the volume-of-fluid method (VOF) was adopted to differentiate the air–water interfaces in the control cells, and the zonal embedded grid technique was employed for grid generation in the cylindrical computational domain. The water surface elevations and velocity profiles were measured in different wave conditions, and the measurements showed that the maximum water levels per wave were high and varied between cases, as well as between cross-sections in a single case. Additionally, the mean water levels were lower in the adjacent positions of the approximated wave-breaking zones. The wave-breaking positions varied between cross-sections in a single case, with the incident-wave height, mean water level, and wave-breaking position measurements indicating the influence of downstream flow variation in each cross-section on the sloping topography. The cross-shore velocity profiles became relatively stable over time, while the longshore velocity profiles predominantly moved in the alongshore direction, with smaller fluctuations, particularly during the same time period and in measurement positions near the wave-breaking zone. The computed velocity profiles also varied between cross-sections, and for the velocity profiles along the cross-shore and longshore directions nearest the wave-breaking areas where the downstream flow had minimal influence, it was presumed that there was longshore-current generation in the sloping topography nearest the shoreside. The computed results were compared with the experimental results and we observed similar characteristics for wave profiles in the same wave period case in both models. In the future, further investigations can be conducted using the presented circular wave basin model to investigate the oblique wave deformation and longshore current generation in different sloping and wave conditions. Full article