Search Results (421)

Aerosols play an important role in global meteorology and climate, as well as in air transport and human health, but there are still many unknowns on their effects and importance, in particular for the coarser (giant and ultragiant) aerosol particles. In this study, we aim to exploit the synergy between Raman lidar and Ka-band cloud radar to enlarge the size range in which aerosols can be observed and characterized. To this end, we developed an inversion technique that retrieves the aerosol microphysical properties based on cloud radar reflectivity and linear depolarization ratio. We applied this technique to a 6-year-long dataset, which was created using a recently developed methodology for the identification of giant aerosols in cloud radar measurements, with measurements from Potenza in Italy. Similarly, using collocated and concurrent lidar profiles, a dataset of aerosol microphysical properties using a widely used inversion technique complements the radar-retrieved dataset. Hence, we demonstrate that the combined use of lidar- and radar-derived aerosol properties enables the inclusion of particles with radii up to 12 µm, which is twice the size typically observed using atmospheric lidar alone. Full article

An EF1 tornado struck Nansha District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, on 28 July 2024. To explore the dynamic and thermodynamic changes during the tornado’s life cycle, high-resolution spatiotemporal data from Foshan’s X-band phased-array radar and the direct wind field synthesis algorithm were used to reconstruct the 3D wind field. The dynamics and 3D structure of the tornado were analysed, with a new parameter, vorticity volume (VV), introduced to study its variation. The observation results indicate that the tornado moved roughly from south to north. During the tornado’s early stage (00:10–00:20 UTC), arc-shaped and annular echoes emerged and positive vorticity increased (peaking at 0.042 s⁻¹). Based on the tornado’s movement direction, the right side of the vortex centre was divergent, while the left side was convergent, whereas the vorticity area and volume continued to grow centrally. During the mature stage (00:23–00:25 UTC), the echo intensity weakened and, at 00:24, the vorticity reached its peak and touched the ground, with the vorticity area and volume also reaching their peaks at the same time. During the dissipation stage (00:25–00:30 UTC), the vorticity and echo features faded and the vorticity area and volume also declined rapidly. The analysis showed that the vorticity volume effectively reflects the tornado’s life cycle, enhancing the understanding of the dynamic and thermodynamic processes during the tornado’s development. Full article

High-resolution numerical weather prediction requires accurate cloud microphysical initial conditions to enhance forecasting capabilities for high-impact severe weather events such as convective storms. This study integrated Fengyun-2 (FY-2) geostationary satellite data (equivalent blackbody temperature and total cloud cover) and next-generation 3D weather radar reflectivity from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to construct cloud microphysical initial fields and evaluate their impact on the CMA-MESO 3 km regional model. An analysis of the catastrophic rainfall event in Henan on 20 July 2021, and a 92-day continuous experiment (May–July 2024) revealed that assimilating cloud microphysical variables significantly improved precipitation forecasting: the equitable threat scores (ETSs) for 1 h forecasts of light, moderate, and heavy rain increased from 0.083, 0.043, and 0.007 to 0.41, 0.36, and 0.217, respectively, with average hourly ETS improvements of 21–71% for 2–6 h forecasts and increases in ETSs for light, moderate, and heavy rain of 7.5%, 9.8%, and 24.9% at 7–12 h, with limited improvement beyond 12 h. Furthermore, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the 2 m temperature forecasts decreased across all 1–72 h lead times, with a 4.2% reduction during the 1–9 h period, while the geopotential height RMSE reductions reached 5.8%, 3.3%, and 2.0% at 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. Additionally, synchronized enhancements were observed in 10 m wind prediction accuracy. These findings underscore the critical role of cloud microphysical initialization in advancing mesoscale numerical weather prediction systems. Full article

With the wide application of airdrop technology in rescue activities in civil and aerospace fields, the importance of accurate airdrop is increasing. This work comprehensively analyzes the interactive mechanisms among multiple models affecting airdrops, including wind field distribution, drag force effect, and the parachute opening process. By integrating key parameters across various dimensions of these models, a multidimensional parameter dynamic evolution (MPDE) target prediction method for aerial delivery parachutes in radar-detected wind fields is proposed, and the Runge–Kutta method is applied to dynamically solve for the final landing point of the target. In order to verify the performance of the method, this work carries out field airdrop experiments based on the radar-measured meteorological data. To evaluate the impact of model input errors on prediction methods, this work analyzes the influence mechanism of the wind field detection error on the airdrop prediction method via the Relative Gain Array (RGA) and verifies the analytical results using the numerical simulation method. The experimental results indicate that the optimized MPDE method exhibits higher accuracy than the widely used linear airdrop target prediction method, with the accuracy improved by 52.03%. Additionally, under wind field detection errors, the linear prediction method demonstrates stronger robustness. The airdrop error shows a trigonometric relationship with the angle between the synthetic wind direction and the heading, and the phase of the function will shift according to the difference in errors. The sensitivity of the MPDE method to wind field errors is positively correlated with the size of its object parachute area. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article

Radar echo extrapolation is a critical forecasting tool in the field of meteorology, playing an especially vital role in nowcasting and weather modification operations. In recent years, spatiotemporal sequence prediction models based on deep learning have garnered significant attention and achieved notable progress in radar echo extrapolation. However, most of these extrapolation network architectures are built upon convolutional neural networks, using radar echo images as input. Typically, radar echo intensity values ranging from −5 to 70 dBZ with a resolution of 5 dBZ are converted into 0–255 grayscale images from pseudo-color representations, which inevitably results in the loss of important echo details. Furthermore, as the extrapolation time increases, the smoothing effect inherent to convolution operations leads to increasingly blurred predictions. To address the algorithmic limitations of deep learning-based echo extrapolation models, this study introduces three major improvements: (1) A Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network (DCGAN) is integrated into the ConvLSTM-based extrapolation model to construct a DCGAN-enhanced architecture, significantly improving the quality of radar echo extrapolation; (2) Considering that the evolution of radar echoes is closely related to the surrounding meteorological environment, the study incorporates specific physical variable products from the initial zero-hour field of RMAPS-NOW (the Rapid-update Multiscale Analysis and Prediction System—NOWcasting subsystem), developed by the Institute of Urban Meteorology, China. These variables are encoded jointly with high-resolution (0.5 dB) radar mosaic data to form multiple radar cells as input. A multi-channel radar echo extrapolation network architecture (MR-DCGAN) is then designed based on the DCGAN framework; (3) Since radar echo decay becomes more prominent over longer extrapolation horizons, this study departs from previous approaches that use a single model to extrapolate 120 min. Instead, it customizes time-specific loss functions for spatiotemporal attenuation correction and independently trains 20 separate models to achieve the full 120 min extrapolation. The dataset consists of radar composite reflectivity mosaics over North China within the range of 116.10–117.50°E and 37.77–38.77°N, collected from June to September during 2018–2022. A total of 39,000 data samples were matched with the initial zero-hour fields from RMAPS-NOW, with 80% (31,200 samples) used for training and 20% (7800 samples) for testing. Based on the ConvLSTM and the proposed MR-DCGAN architecture, 20 extrapolation models were trained using four different input encoding strategies. The models were evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), and False Alarm Ratio (FAR). Compared to the baseline ConvLSTM-based extrapolation model without physical variables, the models trained with the MR-DCGAN architecture achieved, on average, 18.59%, 8.76%, and 11.28% higher CSI values, 19.46%, 19.21%, and 19.18% higher POD values, and 19.85%, 11.48%, and 9.88% lower FAR values under the 20 dBZ, 30 dBZ, and 35 dBZ reflectivity thresholds, respectively. Among all tested configurations, the model that incorporated three physical variables—relative humidity (rh), u-wind, and v-wind—demonstrated the best overall performance across various thresholds, with CSI and POD values improving by an average of 16.75% and 24.75%, respectively, and FAR reduced by 15.36%. Moreover, the SSIM of the MR-DCGAN models demonstrates a more gradual decline and maintains higher overall values, indicating superior capability in preserving echo structural features. Meanwhile, the comparative experiments demonstrate that the MR-DCGAN (u, v + rh) model outperforms the MR-ConvLSTM (u, v + rh) model in terms of evaluation metrics. In summary, the model trained with the MR-DCGAN architecture effectively enhances the accuracy of radar echo extrapolation. Full article

Short-term precipitation forecasting is a core task in meteorological science, aiming to achieve accurate predictions by modeling the spatiotemporal evolution of radar echo sequences, thereby supporting meteorological services and disaster warning systems. However, existing spatiotemporal sequence prediction methods still struggle to disentangle complex spatiotemporal dependencies effectively and fail to capture the nonlinear chaotic characteristics of precipitation systems. This often results in ambiguous predictions, attenuation of echo intensity, and spatial localization errors. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a unified spatiotemporal sequence prediction framework based on spatiotemporal masking, which comprises two stages: self-supervised pre-training and task-oriented fine-tuning. During pre-training, the model learns global structural features of meteorological systems from sparse contexts by randomly masking local spatiotemporal regions of radar images. In the fine-tuning stage, considering the importance of the temporal dimension in short-term precipitation forecasting and the complex long-range dependencies in spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation systems, we design an RNN-based cyclic temporal mask self-encoder model (MAE-RNN) and a transformer-based spatiotemporal attention model (STMT). The former focuses on capturing short-term temporal dynamics, while the latter simultaneously models long-range dependencies across space and time via a self-attention mechanism, thereby avoiding the smoothing effects on high-frequency details that are typical of conventional convolutional or recurrent structures. The experimental results show that STMT improves 3.73% and 2.39% in CSI and HSS key indexes compared with the existing advanced models, and generates radar echo sequences that are closer to the real data in terms of air mass morphology evolution and reflection intensity grading. Full article

In this study, the relationship between radar reflectivity and rain rate (Z–R) was investigated. The analysis was conducted using data collected by the OTT Parsivel¹ disdrometer during the periods 2012–2014 and 2019–2025 in Warsaw, Poland. As a first step, the parameters a and b of the power-law Z–R relationship were estimated separately for three precipitation types: rain, sleet (rain with snow), and snow. Subsequently, observational data from all 12 months of the annual cycle were used to derive Z–R relationships for 118 individual precipitation events. To date, only a few studies of this kind have been conducted in Poland. In the analysis limited to rain events, the estimated parameters (a = 265, b = 1.48) showed relatively minor deviations from the classical Z–R function for convective rainfall, Z = 300R^1.4. However, the parameter a deviated more noticeably from the Z = 200R^1.6 relationship proposed by Marshall and Palmer, which is commonly used to convert radar reflectivity into rainfall estimates, including in the Polish POLRAD radar system. The dataset used in this study included rainfall events of varying types, both stratiform and convective, which contributed to the averaging of Z–R parameters. The values for the parameter a in the Z–R relationship estimated for the other two categories of precipitation types, sleet and snow, were significantly higher than those determined for rain events alone. The a values calculated for individual events demonstrated considerable variability, ranging from 80 to 751, while the b values presented a more predictable range, from 1.10 to 1.77. The highest parameter a values were observed during the summer months: June, July, and August. The variability in the Z–R relationship for individual events assessed in this study indicates the need for further research under diverse meteorological conditions, particularly for stratiform and convective precipitation. Full article

Rapid rises in water levels due to heavy rainfall can lead to the accumulation of floating debris, posing significant challenges for both water quality and resource management. However, real-time monitoring of floating debris remains difficult due to the discrepancy between meteorological conditions and the timing of debris accumulation. To address this limitation, this study proposes an amplitude change detection (ACD) model based on time-series synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, which is less affected by weather conditions. The model statistically distinguishes floating debris from open water based on their differing scattering characteristics. The ACD approach was applied to 18 pairs of Sentinel-1 SAR images acquired over Daecheong Reservoir from June to September 2024. A stringent type I error threshold (α < 1 × 10⁻⁸) was employed to ensure reliable detection. The results revealed a distinct cumulative effect, whereby the detected debris area increased immediately following rainfall events. A positive correlation was observed between 10-day cumulative precipitation and the debris-covered area. For instance, on 12 July, a floating debris area of 0.3828 km² was detected, which subsequently expanded to 0.4504 km² by 24 July. In contrast, on 22 August, when rainfall was negligible, no debris was detected (0 km²), indicating that precipitation was a key factor influencing the detection sensitivity. Comparative analysis with optical imagery further confirmed that floating debris tended to accumulate near artificial barriers and narrow channel regions. Overall, this study demonstrates that this spatial pattern suggests the potential to use detection results to estimate debris transport pathways and inform retrieval strategies. Full article

Radar echo extrapolation based on real-world data is a fundamental problem in meteorological forecasting. Existing extrapolation models typically assume complete radar echo sequences, but in practice, data loss frequently occurs due to equipment failures and communication disruptions. Although traditional solutions can handle missing values through a interpolation-then-prediction pipeline, they suffer from a major limitation: interpolating the missing data and then extrapolating will introduce a cumulative error. To address these issues, we propose MissPred, a radar echo extrapolation model specifically designed for missing data patterns. MissPred employs a dual encoder–decoder architecture. Specifically, the training process involves the sequential execution of interpolation and extrapolation as two distinct serial tasks. In order to circumvent the occurrence of cumulative errors, interpolation and extrapolation are required to share encoder parameters. Furthermore, a missing spatiotemporal feature fusion module (MSTF) that is absent has been designed for the purpose of extracting fine-grained complete spatiotemporal features. Finally, the incorporation of adversarial training is introduced to enhance the authenticity of the prediction results. In order to evaluate the proposed model, case studies are conducted on real radar datasets. Our dataset covers missing rates ranging from 10% to 50%. The experimental results show that the model outperforms the baseline model with the prior interpolation of missing data in the missing mode with stable robustness. Full article

Lightning is one of the most severe natural disasters, characterized by its sudden onset, short duration, and significant damage. Existing quality control (QC) schemes for millisecond-level lightning observation data from a single source are primarily limited by the instrument and equipment, leading to inadequate monitoring, forecasting, and early warning accuracy in severe convective weather. This study proposes a comprehensive QC scheme for lightning location data from the China Meteorological Administration ground-based National Lightning Detection Network (CMA-LDN). The scheme integrates radar composite reflectivity (CREF) and FY-4A cloud-top brightness temperature (TBB), exploring the coupled relationship between lightning activity and severe weather processes. Through experimental analysis of convective processes over different time periods, QC thresholds are established based on the CREF, TBB, and area ratio. In this research, CREF ≥ 10 dBZ, TBB ≤ 270 K, and an 80% area ratio are tuned to filter false signals. Based on the regional threshold and area ratio results, gross error elimination and spatiotemporal clustering are combined to achieve an overall QC rate of 28.7%. The most effective quality control (QC) method is spatial-temporal clustering, achieving a QC efficiency of 20.9%. The processed lightning data are further merged with CREF and generated a 1 km and 6 min resolution lightning location dataset, which significantly improves the accuracy of ground-based lightning detection and supports operational forecasting of severe convective weather. Full article

Between 14 and 16 June 2023, an extratropical cyclone affected the south-southeastern coast of Brazil, causing significant damage and loss of life. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Civil Defense authorities reported at least 16 fatalities. Although numerical models can simulate the general characteristics of extratropical cyclones, they often struggle to accurately represent the intensity and timing of strong winds and heavy precipitation. One approach to improving such simulations is the use of convective-permitting models (CPMs), in which convection is explicitly resolved. In this context, the main objective of this study is to assess the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in CP mode, nested in the ERA5 reanalysis, in representing both the synoptic and mesoscale structures of the cyclone, as well as its associated strong winds and precipitation. The WRF-CP successfully simulated the cyclone’s track, though with some discrepancies in the cyclone location during the first 12 h. Comparisons with radar-based precipitation estimates indicated that the WRF-CP captured the location of the observed precipitation bands. During the cyclone’s occlusion phase—when precipitation was particularly intense—hourly simulated precipitation and 10 m wind (speed, zonal, and meridional components) were evaluated against observations from meteorological stations. WRF-CP demonstrated strong skill in simulating both the timing and intensity of precipitation, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.4 and biases below 0.5 mm h⁻¹. Some limitations were observed in the simulation of 10 m wind speed, which tended to be overestimated. However, the model performed well in simulating the wind components, particularly the zonal component, as indicated by predominantly high correlation values (most above 0.4), suggesting a good representation of wind direction, which is a function of the zonal and meridional components. Overall, the simulation highlights the potential of WRF-CP for studying extreme weather events, including the small-scale structures embedded within synoptic-scale cyclones responsible for producing adverse weather. Full article

Weather forecasting is essential for agriculture, yet current methods often lack the localized accuracy required to manage extreme weather events and optimize irrigation. The MAGDA Horizon Europe/EUSPA project addresses this gap by developing a modular system that integrates novel European space-based, airborne, and ground-based technologies. Unlike conventional forecasting systems, MAGDA enables precise, field-level predictions through the integration of cutting-edge technologies: Meteodrones provide vertical atmospheric profiles where traditional data are sparse; GNSS-reflectometry offers real-time soil moisture insights; and all observations feed into convection-permitting models for accurate nowcasting of extreme events. By combining satellite data, GNSS, Meteodrones, and high-resolution meteorological models, MAGDA enhances agricultural and water management with precise, tailored forecasts. Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, hail, and droughts, threatening both crop yields and water resources. Improving forecast reliability requires better observational data to refine initial atmospheric conditions. Recent advancements in assimilating reflectivity and in situ observations into high-resolution NWMs show promise, particularly for convective weather. Experiments using Sentinel and GNSS-derived data have further improved severe weather prediction. MAGDA employs a high-resolution cloud-resolving model and integrates GNSS, radar, weather stations, and Meteodrones to provide comprehensive atmospheric insights. These enhanced forecasts support both irrigation management and extreme weather warnings, delivered through a Farm Management System to assist farmers. As climate change increases the frequency of floods and droughts, MAGDA’s integration of high-resolution, multi-source observational technologies, including GNSS-reflectometry and drone-based atmospheric profiling, is crucial for ensuring sustainable agriculture and efficient water resource management. Full article

Weather radars are essential in the Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) but are susceptible to calibration errors. Previous work demonstrated that observations from the Ku-band Dual Polarization Radar (DPR) radar on board the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Dual-Precipitation Radar (GPM) are suitable for ground radar calibration. Several studies volume-matched ground radar and GPM DPR Ku-band reflectivities for the absolute calibration of ground radars, by applying different constraints and filters in the volume-matching procedure. This study compares and evaluates volume-matching thresholds and data filtering schemes for the Rizoelia, Larnaca (LCA) and Nata, Pafos (PFO) radars of the Cyprus weather radar network from October 2017 till May 2023. Excluding reflectivities below and within the melting layer with a 250 m buffer yielded consistent results for both ground radars. The selected calibration schemes were combined, and the resulting offsets were compared to stable radar parameters to identify stable calibration periods. The consistency of the wet hydrological year October 2019 to September 2020 suggests that radar calibration results are prone to differences in meteorological conditions, as scarce rainfall can result in insufficient data for reliable calibration. Future work will incorporate disdrometer measurements and extend the analysis to quantitative precipitation estimation. Full article

The evaluation of raindrop size distribution (DSD) is a crucial subject in radar meteorology, as it determines the relationship between radar reflectivity (Z) and rainfall rate (R). The coefficients (a and b) of the Z-R relationship vary significantly due to several factors (e.g., climate and rainfall intensity), rendering the characterization of local DSD essential for improving radar quantitative precipitation estimation. This study used a unique network of 21 disdrometers with high spatio-temporal resolution in Mexico City to investigate changes in the local drop size distribution (DSD) resulting from seasonal fluctuations, rain rates, and topographical regions (flat urban and mountainous). The results indicate that the DSD modeling utilizing the normalized gamma distribution provides an adequate fit in Mexico City, regardless of geographical location and season. Regional variation in DSD’s slope, shape, and parameters was detected in flat urban and mountainous areas, indicating that distinct precipitation mechanisms govern rainfall in each season. Severe rain intensities (R > 20 mm/h) exhibited a more uniform and flatter DSD shape, accompanied by increased dispersion of DSD parameter values among disdrometer locations, particularly for intensities exceeding R > 60 mm/h. The coefficients a and b of the Z-R relationship exhibit significant geographic variability, dependent on the city’s topographic gradient, underscoring the necessity for regionalization of both coefficients within the metropolis. Full article