Search Results (43)

Accurate lightning data are critical for disaster warning and climate research. This study systematically compares the Fengyun-4A Lightning Mapping Imager (FY-4A LMI) satellite and the Advanced Time-of-arrival and Direction (ADTD) lightning location network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region (April–August, 2020–2023) using coefficient of variation (CV) analysis, Welch’s independent samples t-test, Pearson correlation analysis, and inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. Key results: (1) A significant systematic discrepancy exists between the two datasets, with an annual mean ratio of 0.0636 (t = −5.1758, p < 0.01); FY-4A LMI shows higher observational stability (CV = 5.46%), while ADTD excels in capturing intense lightning events (CV = 28.01%). (2) Both datasets exhibit a consistent unimodal monthly pattern peaking in July (moderately strong positive correlation, r = 0.7354, p < 0.01) but differ distinctly in diurnal distribution. (3) High-density lightning areas of both datasets concentrate south of the Yanshan Mountains and east of the Taihang Mountains, shaped by topography and water vapor transport. This study reveals the three-factor (climatic background, topographic forcing, technical characteristics) coupled regulatory mechanism of data discrepancies and highlights the complementarity of the two datasets, providing a solid scientific basis for satellite-ground data fusion and regional lightning disaster defense. Full article

With the rapid development of the Internet of Things (IOT), 5G, and modern power systems, demand-side loads are becoming increasingly observable and remotely controllable, which enables demand-side flexibility to participate more actively in grid dispatch and emergency support. Under extreme rainstorm conditions, however, component failure risk rises and the availability and dispatchability of demand-side flexibility can change rapidly. This paper proposes a risk-aware emergency regulation framework that translates rainstorm information into actionable multi-load aggregation decisions for urban power systems. First, demand-side resources are quantified using four response attributes, including response speed, response capacity, maximum response duration, and response reliability, to enable a consistent characterization of heterogeneous flexibility. Second, a backpropagation (BP) neural network is trained on long-term real-world meteorological observations and corresponding reliability outcomes to estimate regional- or line-level fault probabilities from four rainstorm drivers: wind speed, rainfall intensity, lightning warning level, and ambient temperature. The inferred probabilities are mapped onto the IEEE 30-bus benchmark to identify high-risk areas or lines and define spatial priorities for emergency response. Third, guided by these risk signals, a two-level coordination model is formulated for a load aggregator (LA) to schedule building air conditioning loads, distributed photovoltaics, and electric vehicles through incentive-based participation, and the resulting optimization problem is solved using an adaptive genetic algorithm. Case studies verify that the proposed strategy can coordinate heterogeneous resources to meet emergency regulation requirements and improve the aggregator–user economic trade-off compared with single-resource participation. The proposed method provides a practical pathway for risk-informed emergency regulation under rainstorm conditions. Full article

Lightning is the primary natural cause of wildfires in mid- to high-latitude forests, and it is increasing in frequency under climate change. Traditional fire danger forecasts, reliant on standard meteorological data, often fail to capture extreme events and future risk. To address this issue, we integrate extreme climate indices with meteorological, vegetation, soil, and topographic data, and apply four machine learning methods to build probabilistic models for lightning fire occurrence. The results show that incorporating extreme climate indices significantly improves model performance. Among the models, XGBoost achieved the highest accuracy (87.4%) and AUC (0.903), clearly outperforming traditional fire weather indices (accuracy 60%–71%). Model interpretation with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) further revealed the driving mechanisms and interaction effects of extreme factors. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices contributed nearly 60% to fire occurrence, with growing season length (GSL), minimum of daily maximum temperature (TXn), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and warm spell duration index (WSDI) identified as key drivers. In contrast, heavy precipitation indices exerted a suppressing effect. Compound hot and dry conditions amplified fuel aridity and markedly increased ignition probability. This interpretable framework improves short-term lightning fire prediction and offers quantitative support for risk warning and resource allocation in a warming climate. Full article

Lightning-ignited wildfires represent a dominant natural disturbance agent in the Greater Khingan Mountains of northeastern China; however, the relationship between their occurrence and lightning characteristics remains insufficiently quantified. This study analyzed cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data (2019–2024) and 417 lightning-ignited wildfires (2019–2024) using a full-waveform lightning detection network and spatial matching based on the Minimum Distance Method. Lightning activity shows pronounced spatiotemporal clustering, with more than 93% of flashes occurring in summer and a diurnal peak at 15:00. About 74.6% of wildfires ignited within 1 km of a lightning strike, and the holdover time exhibited clear seasonality, peaking in August (≈317 h). Negative CG (−CG) flashes dominated ignition events (56.5% multiple-stroke, average multiplicity = 2.60), and igniting flashes were concentrated within the −10 to −30 kA peak-current range, suggesting a key threshold for ignition. Vegetation type strongly influenced ignition efficiency: cold temperate and temperate coniferous forests recorded the highest lightning and fire counts, while alpine grasslands and sedge meadows showed the highest lightning ignition efficiency (LIE). These findings clarify how lightning electrical properties and vegetation conditions jointly determine ignition probability and provide a scientific basis for improving lightning-ignited wildfire risk monitoring and early-warning systems in boreal forest regions. Full article

This study investigates lightning activity and evaluates a near-real-time lightning warning system for the inner Hanoi area, using data collected during 2020–2024 from the Strike Guard (SG) and EFM-100C instruments located in Chuong My, Hanoi, Vietnam. Lightning detection data were incorporated with rainfall and lightning location information from the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VNMHA) for quality checking. The SG data over the research area revealed clear diurnal and seasonal variations, with lightning most frequent in the late afternoon and two major peaks in June and September corresponding to the summer monsoon. A combined warning method using EFM-100C electric field measurements and SG alert states achieved an average lead time of 15 min, a Probability of Detection (POD) of 82.22%, a Critical Success Index (CSI) of 76.55%, an F1 score of 86.72%, and a False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 8.26%. These results demonstrate that integrating electric field and optical–electromagnetic measurements can provide effective localized lightning warnings for the urban areas. The approach is cost-efficient, operationally feasible, and particularly valuable for protecting critical infrastructure regions, supporting enhanced lightning safety and disaster mitigation in northern Vietnam. Full article

Due to the difficulty of achieving absolutely precise coaxial installation of measurement components, a coaxial error will occur between the measurement axis of the sensor and that of the electronic compass when conducting the measurement of the airborne atmospheric electric field intensity based on the geographic coordinate system under the airborne mode of unmanned aerial vehicles. This error leads to less satisfactory measurement accuracy of the atmospheric electric field intensity components based on the geographic coordinate system. In this study, the angle between the measurement axis of the sensor and that of the compass is set as the parameter to be identified, and a modified model for three-dimensional electric field orientation decomposition based on geographic coordinates is constructed. In view of the characteristics of the nonlinear equations of this model, an algorithm based on tansig–Nonlinear Dynamic Inertia Weight Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (NDIWAPSO) is proposed to solve the modified model, successfully addressing the problem of insufficient measurement accuracy of the electric field intensity components in the geographic coordinate system caused by the coaxial error. The experimental results show that the parameters of the three-dimensional electric field orientation decomposition modified model can be accurately identified by the algorithm proposed in this paper, improving the measurement accuracy of the atmospheric electric field intensity components based on the geographic coordinate system and laying a necessary foundation for lightning warning. Full article

Lightning nowcasting is crucial for ensuring safety and operational continuity in weather-exposed industries such as mining. This study evaluates three machine learning (ML)-based approaches for predicting lightning using dual-polarimetric weather radar data collected in the eastern Amazon, Brazil. The strategies propose advances in literature in three ways by involving (i) grouping radar variables by temperature layers, (ii) statistical summaries at key altitudes, and (iii) analyzing all the 18 levels of reflectivity data combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dimensionality reduction and ensemble models. For each approach, models such as Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost were trained and tested using data from 2021–2022 with class balancing and feature engineering techniques. Among the approaches, the PCA-based ensemble achieved the best generalization (recall = 0.89, F1 = 0.77), while the layer-based method had the highest recall (0.97), and the altitude-based strategy offered a computationally efficient alternative with competitive results. These findings confirm the predictive value of radar-derived features and emphasize the role of feature representation in model performance. Additionally, the best model was integrated into the operational LEWAIS alert system, and four integration strategies were tested. The strategy that combined alerts from both ML and LEWAIS systems reduced the failure-to-warn rate to 0.0531 and increased the lead time to 10.18 min, making it ideal for safety-critical applications. Overall, the results show that ML models based solely on radar inputs can achieve robust lightning nowcasting, supporting both scientific advancement and industrial risk mitigation. Full article

A single-station lightning location has the obvious advantages of low cost and convenience in lightning monitoring and warning. To address the critical challenge of distance estimation accuracy in this technology, we propose a novel physical time-reversal (PTR) method to utilize the full wave information of both the ground wave and the sky wave in the detected signal. First, we improved the numerical model for accurately calculating the lightning sferics signals in the complex propagation environment of the Earth–ionosphere waveguide using the measured International Reference Ionosphere 2020. Subsequently, the sferics signal with multipath effect is transformed by time reversal and back propagated in the numerical model. Furthermore, a broadening factor reflecting the waveform dispersion in the back propagation is defined as the single-station focusing criterion to determine the optimal lightning propagation distance, considering the multipath effect and the focus of the PTR process. The experimental results demonstrate that the average root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean relative error (MRE) of the PTR method for the lightning distance estimation in the numerical simulation within the range of 100–1200 km are 5.517 km and 1.21%, respectively, and the average RMSE and the MRE for the natural lightning strikes to the Canton Tower from the measured data in the range of 181.643–1152.834 km are 9.251 km and 2.07%, respectively. Moreover, the correlation coefficients of the detection results are all as high as 0.999. These results indicate that the PTR method significantly outperforms the traditional ionospheric reflection method, demonstrating that it is able to perform a more accurate single-station lightning distance estimation by utilizing the compensation mechanism of the multipath effect on the sferics. The implementation of the proposed method has significant application value for improving the accuracy of single-station lightning location. Full article

Coastal areas are prone to thunderstorms. Lightning strikes can damage power facilities and communication systems, thereby leading to serious consequences. The lightning location network achieves lightning location through data fusion from multiple lightning locator nodes and can detect the location and intensity of lightning in real time. It is an important facility for thunderstorm warning and protection in coastal areas. However, when a sensor node in a lightning location network experiences a soft fault, it causes distortion in the lightning location. To achieve fault diagnosis of lightning locator nodes in a multi-node data fusion mode, this study proposes a new lightning location mode: the observer pattern. This paper first analyzes the main factors contributing to the error of the lightning location algorithm under this mode, proposes an observer pattern estimation algorithm (OPE) for lightning location, and defines the proportion of improvement in lightning positioning accuracy (PI) caused by the OPE algorithm. By analyzing the changes in PI in the process of lightning location, this study further proposes a diagnostic algorithm (OPSFD) for soft-fault nodes in a lightning location network. The simulation experiments in the paper demonstrate that the OPE algorithm can effectively improve the positioning accuracy of existing lightning location networks. Therefore, the OPE algorithm is also a low-cost and efficient method for improving the accuracy of existing lightning location networks, and it is suitable for the actual deployment and upgrading of current lightning locators. Meanwhile, the experimental results show that when a soft fault causes the observation error of the node to exceed the normal range, the OPSFD algorithm proposed in this study can effectively diagnose the faulty node. Full article

Aiming at the issues that the field mill type electric field sensor lacks an accurate and complete mathematical model, and its signal is weak and contains a large amount of harmonic noise, on the basis of establishing the mathematical model of the sensor’s induction electrode, the finite element method was adopted to analyze the influence laws of parameters such as the thickness of the shielding electrode and the distance between the induction electrode and the shielding electrode on the sensor sensitivity. On this basis, the above parameters were optimized. A signal processing circuit incorporating a pre-integral transformation circuit, a differential amplification circuit, and a bias circuit was investigated, and a completed mathematical model of the input and output of the field mill type electric field sensor was established. An improved harmonic detection method combining fast Fourier transform and back propagation neural network (FFT-BP) was proposed, the learning rate, momentum factor, and excitation function jointly participated in the adjustment of the network, and the iterative search range of the algorithm was limited by the threshold interval, further improving the accuracy and rapidity of the sensor measurement. Experimental results indicate that within the simulated electric field intensity range of 0–20 kV/m in the laboratory, the measurement resolution of this system can reach 18.7 V/m, and the measurement linearity is more than 99%. The designed system is capable of measuring the atmospheric electric field intensity in real time, providing necessary data support for lightning monitoring and early warning. Full article

Lightning strikes are a major hazard in tropical regions, especially in northern Brazil, where open-area industries such as mining are highly exposed. This study proposes an octant-based multi-objective optimization approach for spatial lightning alert systems, focusing on minimizing both false alarm rate (FAR) and failure-to-warn (FTW). The method uses NSGA-III to optimize a configuration vector consisting of directional radii and alert thresholds, based solely on historical lightning location data. Experiments were conducted using four years of cloud-to-ground lightning data from a mining area in Pará, Brazil. Fifteen independent runs were executed, each with 96 individuals and up to 150 generations. The results showed a clear trade-off between FAR and FTW, with optimal solutions achieving up to 16% reduction in FAR and 50% reduction in FTW when compared to a quadrant-based baseline. The use of the hypervolume metric confirmed consistent convergence across runs. Sensitivity analysis revealed spatial patterns in optimal configurations, supporting the use of directional tuning. The proposed approach provides a flexible and interpretable model for risk-based alert strategies, compliant with safety regulations such as NBR 5419/2015 and NR-22. It offers a viable solution for automated alert generation in high-risk environments, especially where detailed meteorological data is unavailable. Full article

Lightning is one of the most severe natural disasters, characterized by its sudden onset, short duration, and significant damage. Existing quality control (QC) schemes for millisecond-level lightning observation data from a single source are primarily limited by the instrument and equipment, leading to inadequate monitoring, forecasting, and early warning accuracy in severe convective weather. This study proposes a comprehensive QC scheme for lightning location data from the China Meteorological Administration ground-based National Lightning Detection Network (CMA-LDN). The scheme integrates radar composite reflectivity (CREF) and FY-4A cloud-top brightness temperature (TBB), exploring the coupled relationship between lightning activity and severe weather processes. Through experimental analysis of convective processes over different time periods, QC thresholds are established based on the CREF, TBB, and area ratio. In this research, CREF ≥ 10 dBZ, TBB ≤ 270 K, and an 80% area ratio are tuned to filter false signals. Based on the regional threshold and area ratio results, gross error elimination and spatiotemporal clustering are combined to achieve an overall QC rate of 28.7%. The most effective quality control (QC) method is spatial-temporal clustering, achieving a QC efficiency of 20.9%. The processed lightning data are further merged with CREF and generated a 1 km and 6 min resolution lightning location dataset, which significantly improves the accuracy of ground-based lightning detection and supports operational forecasting of severe convective weather. Full article

This study addresses the issue of resistance plate deterioration in ultra-high voltage energy devices by proposing an improved symplectic geometric mode decomposition-wavelet packet (ISGMD-WP) algorithm that effectively extracts the component characteristics of leakage currents. The extracted features are subsequently input into the I-Informer network, allowing for the prediction of future trends and the provision of early short-term warnings. First, we enhance the symplectic geometric mode decomposition (SGMD) algorithm and introduce wavelet packet decomposition reconstruction before recombination, successfully isolating the prominent harmonics of leakage current. Second, we develop an advanced I-Informer prediction network featuring improvements in both the embedding and distillation layers to accurately forecast future changes in DC characteristics. Finally, leveraging the prediction results from multiple adjacent columns mitigates the impact of power grid fluctuations. By integrating these data with the deterioration interval, we can issue timely warnings regarding the condition of lightning arresters across each column. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed ISGMD-WP effectively decomposes leakage current, achieving a decomposition ability evaluation index (EIDC) 1.95 under intense noise. Furthermore, in long-term prediction, the I-Informer network yields mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) indices of 0.02538 and 0.03175, respectively, enabling the accurate prediction of the energy device’s fault. Full article

The study of the ground tip corona discharge is an important part of the lightning strike mechanism and lightning warning research. Because the characteristics of the corona charge distribution are difficult to observe directly, simulation research is indispensable. However, most of the previous models have been unipolar models, which cannot reflect the characteristics of the tip corona discharge under electric field reversal during real thunderstorms. Therefore, the development of three-dimensional positive and negative corona discharge models is of great significance. In this study, a three-dimensional corona discharge numerical model considering the polarity reversal process of the electric field was developed with or without a wind field and simulated the tip corona discharge characteristics under this reversal. The reliability of the model was verified by comparing the observed results. Compared with the unipolar corona discharge model, this model could effectively evaluate the impact of the first half-cycle corona discharge on the second half-cycle opposite-polarity corona discharge and invert the spatial separation distribution characteristics of different polar corona charges released in both cycles under the influence of wind and the spatial electric field distribution characteristics generated by the corresponding corona charges. Comparing unipolar corona discharges under the same wave pattern and amplitude of the background electric field, it was assumed that the unipolar corona discharge occurred in the half cycle after the polarity reversal of an electric field, and there was also an opposite-polarity corona discharge process before it. Due to the influence of the first half cycle, the background electric field required for a corona discharge was smaller, and the corona current was generated earlier, but the end time was equivalent. At the same time, due to the neutralization effect of positive and negative corona charges, the peak value of the total corona charge in the second half cycle was significantly smaller than that of the unipolar model. At different building heights, the peak difference in the corona current and the peak difference in the corona charge between the two models increased linearly with an increase in height. It could be seen that this model had better simulation results and wider application value. Full article

To overcome the limitations of spatiotemporal feature extraction that are inherent in conventional lightning warning algorithms relying solely on temporal analysis, we propose a novel prediction framework integrating a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture, and a multi-head attention mechanism. The methodology innovatively constructs station adjacency matrices based on geographical distances between meteorological monitoring stations in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, where GCN layers capture inter-station spatial dependencies while LSTM units extract localized temporal dynamics. A dedicated multi-head attention module was developed to enable adaptive fusion of global spatiotemporal patterns, significantly enhancing lightning warning level prediction accuracy at target locations. The GCN-LSTM model achieved 93% accuracy, 59% precision, 64% recall, and a 59% F1 score. Experimental evaluation on operational meteorological data demonstrated the model’s superior performance: it achieved statistically significant accuracy improvements of 6% (p = 0.019), 3% (p = 0.026), and 2% (p = 0.03) over conventional LSTM, TGCN, and CNN-RNN baselines, respectively. Comprehensive assessments through precision–recall analysis, confusion matrix decomposition, and spatial generalizability tests confirmed the framework’s robustness. The key theoretical advancement introduced by this study lies in the synergistic coupling of graph-based spatial modeling with deep temporal sequence learning, augmented by attention-driven feature fusion—an architectural innovation addressing critical gaps in existing single-modality approaches. This methodology establishes a new paradigm for extreme weather prediction with direct applications in lightning hazard mitigation. Full article