Search Results (138)

African hydrological systems are incredibly complex and highly sensitive to climate variability. This review synthesizes observational data, remote sensing, and climate modeling to understand the interactions between fluvial processes, water cycle dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures. Currently, these systems are experiencing accelerating warming (+0.3 °C/decade), leading to more intense hydrological extremes and regionally varied responses. For example, East Africa has shown reversed temperature–moisture correlations since the Holocene onset, while West African rivers demonstrate nonlinear runoff sensitivity (a threefold reduction per unit decline in rainfall). Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) are as impactful as climate change, with analysis from 1959–2014 revealing extensive conversion of primary non-forest land and a more than sixfold increase in the intensity of pastureland expansion by the early 21st century. Future projections, exemplified by studies in basins like Ethiopia’s Gilgel Gibe and Ghana’s Vea, indicate escalating aridity with significant reductions in surface runoff and groundwater recharge, increasing aquifer stress. These findings underscore the need for integrated adaptation strategies that leverage remote sensing, nature-based solutions, and transboundary governance to build resilient water futures across Africa’s diverse basins. Full article

Understanding forest-cover change and its drivers is vital for global forest management and policy development. This study analyzed perceptions of historical drivers behind land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) and forest change in gazetted forests from 1966 to 2022 to evaluate the impact of human activities around the gazetted forest reserves, comparing three forests in Nasarawa State, North Central Nigeria. Data were collected through questionnaires, interviews, and focus group discussions. Three gazetted forests (Doma, Risha, and Odu) were sampled to represent the three geopolitical zones of the state. SPSS IBM version 29, NVivo 1.7, and Python 3 were used for data analyses to generate statistics and identify coherent themes across the forests. Results show that changes were perceived to be triggered by sixteen drivers (direct and indirect) related to social, economic, environmental, policy/institutional, and technological elements. Agricultural expansion, lumbering, and charcoal production were the most reported direct drivers, while population growth, poverty, and government policies were the most perceived indirect drivers. The results showed variations in human activities across forest sites. For example, agricultural expansion, lumbering, and grazing were more widespread, while construction and settlement activities differed between forests. The Risha forest community saw agriculture expansion ahead of other drivers, Doma forest people saw population growth above other drivers, and the Odu forest community saw lumbering aiding other drivers that led to change. Implementation of policies focusing on these key drivers must match local perceptions and priorities to engage people in forest conservation. These efforts could ensure effective forest protection that is vital for achieving global biodiversity and climate targets and safeguarding local livelihoods. The specific drivers of changes in each forest need to be targeted in conservation efforts. Full article

Carbon emissions from land use account for a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. As an important policy instrument for regulating land use, spatial planning can shape future land patterns, thereby influencing human activities and associated carbon emissions. This review presents a scientometric analysis of important articles between 2000 and 2024 on the impacts of land use and spatial planning on carbon emissions, and it summarizes the key research topics, methods, and main consensus. Scientometric and qualitative analysis methods were used. The results showed the following: (1) The number of articles published reveals an increasing trend, especially after 2009, with China, the USA, and England paying more attention to it. (2) Studies mainly focus on four key research topics: the impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on carbon stocks, the relationship between land use structure/spatial form and carbon emissions, and the paths and schemes for low-carbon spatial planning. (3) Studies usually use upscale, homoscale, and downscale routes to correlate carbon emissions to land and then use comparative analysis, regression analysis, spatial analysis, and scenario simulation methods to conduct further analyses. (4) Studies have yielded some consensus: human land use can influence carbon emissions through LULCC, land use structure and spatial form, and spatial planning can reduce carbon emissions. In conclusion, this paper proposes that future research could be deepened in the following aspects: introducing land property rights and spatial planning management systems as research preconditions; exploring the sensitivity of carbon emissions from human activities to land space; strengthening research on low-carbon planning at medium- and long-term time scales and micro- and meso-spatial scales. Full article

Increasing forest destruction from land use and land cover change (LULCC) has altered catchment hydrological processes worldwide. This trend is also endemic to the Belize River Watershed (BRW), a significant source of land and water resources for Belize. This study aims to understand LULCC impacts on BRW hydrological responses from 2000 to 2020 by applying the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This study identified historical trends in LULCC in the BRW and explored an alternative 2020 land cover scenario to elucidate the role of protected forests for hydrological response regulation. A SWAT model for the BRW was developed at the monthly timescale and calibrated on in situ streamflow using SWAT Calibrations and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP). The results showed that the BRW SWAT model performed satisfactorily for streamflow simulation at the Benque Viejo (BV) gauge station but performed variably at the Double Run (DR) gauge station. Overall, the findings revealed watershed-level increases in monthly average sediment yield (34.40%), surface runoff (24.95%), streamflow (16.86%), water yield (16.02%), baseflow (11.58%), and percolation (3.40%), and decreases in monthly average evapotranspiration (ET) (3.52%). In conclusion, the BRW SWAT model is promising for uncovering the hydrological impacts of LULCCs with opportunities for further model improvement. Full article

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) can influence giant panda distributions by altering landscape structure and configuration. However, the spatial impacts and potential time lag effects of landscape pattern changes on giant pandas remain underexplored. In this study, we applied a random forest classification method to analyze LULCC in 1990, 2000, and 2010, alongside calculating a set of landscape metrics to assess changes in landscape fragmentation, connectivity, and diversity. Random forest regression models were then used to evaluate the spatial relationships between landscape metrics and giant panda density, with the aim of identifying whether a time lag effect exists. The results revealed the following: (1) The random forest classification achieved high land use classification accuracy. Forests remained the dominant land cover, occupying approximately 97% of the study area throughout the period, with only minor fluctuations observed among other land use types. (2) Landscape metrics indicated increasing landscape fragmentation, connectivity, and diversity. While increased landscape fragmentation can negatively impact giant panda habitat, improvements in landscape connectivity and diversity could mitigate these effects by preserving movement corridors and enhancing habitat accessibility. (3) The strongest correlations between giant panda density and landscape metrics were observed when the time points aligned. Landscape metrics from 2010 showed the highest correlation with the 4th NGPS (around 2010), and landscape metrics from 2000 had the highest correlation with the 3rd NGPS (around 2000). The results revealed that giant panda density responded most strongly to contemporary landscape pattern changes, suggesting an immediate response. However, correlations with earlier landscape metrics also suggest that a relatively weak time lag effect may be present. All landscape metrics were derived from remote sensing data, enabling scalable and repeatable GIS-based analysis. These findings highlight the utility of spatial landscape indicators for monitoring species distribution patterns and underscore the importance of maintaining and enhancing habitat connectivity within giant panda conservation efforts. Full article

Land use and land cover (LULC) in coastal areas is critical in shaping the ecological systems, regional economy, and livelihood of indigenous communities. This study analyzes LULC changes (LULCC) in Soc Trang Province, Vietnam Mekong Delta, from 2010 to 2020 and simulates future LULC for 2030 under four scenarios: natural growth (business as usual, BAU), climate change challenges, profit optimization, and adaptation strategies. Satellite-based LULC maps and geospatial datasets were integrated into a LULC simulation model based on a Markov Chain and Cellular Automata to predict LULC in 2030 under disparate scenarios. Simultaneously, this study also estimates economic values and ecosystem service values as proxies to evaluate benefits and trade-offs between the scenarios. The research findings reveal that the critical LULCC observed during 2010–2020 are transitions from triple rice crops to double rice crops, rice–shrimp to brackish aquaculture, and expansion of perennial plantations. These transitional trends will persist at a modest rate under the BAU scenario in 2030. The climate change challenge scenario will intervene up to 24.2% of the total area, with double rice crops reaching the most extensive area compared to other scenarios, about 106,047 ha. The profit optimization scenario will affect 16.03% of the total area, focusing on aquaculture expansion to the maximum shared proportion of 34% (approximately 57,000 ha). Adaptive solutions will emphasize reducing triple rice crops while expanding double rice crops and reviving rice–shrimp to different extents depending on development pathways. Economic evaluations show a growth trend across scenarios, with maximum returns under profit optimization. Yet, ecosystem service values notably highlight ecological trade-offs, raising concerns about balancing economic benefits and ecological trade-offs in land use planning. The research findings recommend a comprehensive and multitarget approach to land use planning that integrates ecosystem services into initial assessments to balance benefits and trade-offs in coastal areas commonly affected by LULCC. By adopting well-informed and strategic land use plans that minimize ecological and social impacts, local sustainability and resilience to climate change can be significantly enhanced. Full article

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a key driver of carbon storage changes, especially in complex coastal ecosystems such as the Yellow River Delta (YRD), which is jointly influenced by climate change and resource development. The compounded effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence (LS) are particularly prominent. This study is the first to integrate the dual impacts of SLR and LS into a unified framework, using three climate scenarios (SSP1–26, SSP2–45, SSP5–85) provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), along with LS monitoring data, to comprehensively assess future inundation risks. Building on this, and taking into account land use and ecological protection policies in the YRD, three strategic scenarios—Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), Natural Development Scenario (NDS), and Economic Growth Scenario (EGS)—are established. The PLUS and InVEST models are used to jointly simulate LULCC and carbon storage changes across these scenarios. Unlike previous studies focusing on single driving factors, this research innovatively develops a dynamic simulation system for LULCC and carbon storage driven by the SLR-LS compound effects, providing scientific guidance for land space development and coastal zone planning in vulnerable coastal areas, while enhancing carbon sink potential. The results of the study show the following: (1) Over the past 30 years, the land use pattern of the YRD has generally extended toward the sea, with land use transitions mainly from grasslands (the largest reduction: 1096.20 km²), wetlands, reservoirs and ponds, and paddy fields to drylands, culture areas, construction lands, salt pans, and tidal flats. (2) Carbon storage in the YRD exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity. Low-carbon storage areas are primarily concentrated in the coastal regions, while high-carbon storage areas are mainly found in grasslands, paddy fields, and woodlands. LULCC, especially the conversion of high carbon storage ecosystems to low carbon storage uses, has resulted in an overall net regional carbon loss of 2.22 × 10⁶ t since 1990. (3) The risk of seawater inundation in the YRD is closely related to LS, particularly under low sea-level scenarios, with LS playing a dominant role in exacerbating this risk. Under the EGS, the region is projected to face severe seawater inundation and carbon storage losses by 2030 and 2060. Full article

Farmland covers present diverse characteristics, methods, and techniques to monitor and evaluate crops in other geographic areas. This study systematically reviews Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) in agricultural land in Chile through a systematic review of the scientific literature. Using the PRISMA 2020 method, the Web of Science (WOS) database was consulted using the keywords “Landuse”, “Landcover”, “Agriculture”, and “Chile”. We applied six exclusions criteria and constructed a matrix to select relevant aspects, such as title, year of publication, study area and period, methods used, and principal results. In our review, we identified four studies that focused specifically on agricultural land dynamics, mainly in south-central Chile. Chile was selected as the study area due to its geographical diversity, which poses significant challenges for decision-making in land use regulation. These results underscore the need for more spatially informed data on farmland dynamics to inform decision-making, particularly during the alternatives evaluation stage. In this phase, it is essential to assess the impacts on and potential of the territory in order to define suitable economic activities. Although there are numerous studies on LULCC, most emphasize changes in native forests, underscoring the need to address LULCC more comprehensively by considering other land categories, such as agricultural land, shrublands, grasslands, and others. This evidence is crucial for designing practical land management tools and identifying areas that have been extensively studied but lack sufficient research. Full article

Free trade zones are key regions experiencing rapid economic growth, urbanization, and a sharp increase in population density. During the development of free trade zones, these areas undergo drastic transformations in landscape types, large-scale urban construction, heightened resource consumption, and other associated challenges. These factors have led to severe landscape ecological risk (LER). Therefore, conducting comprehensive assessments and implementing effective management strategies for LER is crucial in advancing ecological civilization and ensuring high-quality development. This study takes Hainan Island (HI), China, as a case study and utilizes multi-source data to quantitatively evaluate land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the evolution of the LER in the study area from 2015 to 2023. Additionally, it examines the spatial patterns of LER under three future scenarios projected for 2033: a natural development scenario (NDS), an economic priority scenario (EPS), and an ecological conservation scenario (ECS). Adopting a spatiotemporal dynamic perspective framed by the “historical–present–future” approach, this research constructs a zoning framework for LER management to examine the temporal and spatial processes of risk evolution, its characteristics, future trends, and corresponding management strategies. The results indicate that, over an eight-year period, the area of built-up land expanded by 40.31% (504.85 km²). Specifically, between 2015 and 2018, built-up land increased by 95.85 km², while, from 2018 to 2023, the growth was significantly larger at 409.00 km², highlighting the widespread conversion of cropland into built-up land. From 2015 to 2023, the spatial distribution of LER in the study area exhibited a pattern of high-risk peripheries (central mountainous areas) and low-risk central regions (coastal areas). Compared to 2023, projections for 2033 under different scenarios indicate a decline in cropland (by approximately 17.8–19.45%) and grassland (by approximately 24.06–24.22%), alongside an increase in forestland (by approximately 4.5–5.35%) and built-up land (by approximately 23.5–41.35%). Under all three projected scenarios, high-risk areas expand notably, accounting for 4.52% (NDS), 3.33% (ECS), and 5.75% (EPS) of the total area. The LER maintenance area (65.25%) accounts for the largest proportion, primarily distributed in coastal economic development areas and urban–rural transition areas. In contrast, the LER mitigation area (7.57%) has the smallest proportion. Among the driving factors, the GDP (q = 0.1245) and year-end resident population (q = 0.123) were identified as the dominant factors regarding the spatial differentiation of LER. Furthermore, the interaction between economic factors and energy consumption further amplifies LER. This study proposes a policy-driven dynamic risk assessment framework, providing decision-making support and scientific guidance for LER management in tropical islands and the optimization of regional land spatial planning. Full article

Water-Regulating Ecosystem Services (WRES) play a crucial role in maintaining water quality and preventing soil erosion, particularly in watershed areas that are vulnerable to Land Use Land Cover Changes (LULCC) and climate change. This study focuses on the Upper Beht Watershed, the most ecologically significant basin of the Ifrane National Park (INP). The main objective is to understand how WRES values respond to the challenges posed by grasslands degradation, agricultural intensification, and urban expansion before and after the park’s creation. In this research, we first analyzed historical Land Use Land Cover (LULC) data from 1992 to 2022 using Google Earth Engine platform. We then employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST 3.10.2) models to quantify and map the impacts of ongoing LULCC on the watershed’s capacity to retain sediments and nutrients. Finally, we used the damage costs avoided method for economic assessment of WRES. Our findings demonstrate a notable improvement in the economic value of WRES following the establishment of the park, reaching USD 10,000 per year. In contrast, prior to its creation, this service experienced a decline of USD −7000 per year. This positive trend can be attributed to the expansion of forest cover in areas prioritized for reforestation and conservation interventions. The study highlights the critical importance of continuous WRES monitoring, providing park managers with robust data to advocate for sustained conservation efforts and increased investment in restoration initiatives within protected areas. Moreover, the findings can be used to raise awareness among local communities and encourage their active engagement in sustainable development initiatives. Full article

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCCs) shapes catchment dynamics and is a key driver of hydrological risks, affecting hydrological responses as vegetated land is replaced with urban developments and cultivated land. The resultant hydrological risks are likely to become more critical in the future as the climate changes and becomes increasingly variable. Understanding the effects of LULCC is vital for developing land management strategies and reducing adverse effects on the hydrological cycle and the environment. This study examines LULCC dynamics in the Niger Delta Region (NDR) of Nigeria from 1986 to 2024. A supervised maximum likelihood classification was applied to Landsat 5 TM and 8 OLI images from 1986, 2015, and 2024. Five land use classes were classified: Water bodies, Rainforest, Built-up, Agriculture, and Mangrove. The overall accuracy of the land use classification and Kappa coefficients were 93% and 0.90, 91% and 0.87, 84% and 0.79 for 1986, 2015, and 2024, respectively. Between 1986 and 2024, built-up and agriculture areas substantially increased by about 8229 and 6727 km² (561% and 79%), respectively, with a concomitant decrease in mangrove and vegetation areas of about 14,350 and 10,844 km² (−54% and −42%), respectively. The spatial distribution of changes across the NDR states varied, with Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Rivers States experiencing the highest decrease in rainforest, with losses of 64%, 55, 44%, and 44% (5711 km², 3554 km², 2250 km², and 1297 km²), respectively. The NDR’s mangroves are evidently under serious threat. This has important implications, particularly given the important role played by mangrove forests in regulating hydrological hazards. The dramatic decrease in the NDR mangrove and rainforest could exacerbate climate-related impacts. The study provides quantitative information on LULCC dynamics that could be used to support planning on land management practices in the NDR as well as sustainable development. Full article

Rapid urbanization and climate impacts have raised concerns about the emergence and aggravation of urban heat island effects. In Africa, studies have focused more on big cities due to their growing populations and high climate impact, while mid-sized cities remain under-studied, with limited comparative insights into their distinct characteristics. This study therefore provided a spatiotemporal analysis of land use land cover change (LULCC) and surface urban heat islands (SUHI) effects in the Nigerian mid-sized cities of Akure and Osogbo from 2014 to 2023. This study used Landsat 8 and 9 imagery (2014 and 2023) and analyzed data via Google Earth Engine and ArcGIS Pro 3.4. Results showed that Akure’s built areas increased significantly from 164.026 km² to 224.191 km² while Osogbo witnessed a smaller expansion from 41.808 km² to 58.315 km² in built areas. This study identified Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and emissivity patterns associated with vegetation and thermal emissions and a positive association between LST and urbanization. The findings across Akure and Osogbo cities established that LULCC has different impacts on SUHI effects. As a result, evidence from a mid-sized city might not be extended to other cities of similar size and socioeconomic characteristics without caution. Full article

Anthropogenic activities significantly threaten aquatic ecosystems, accelerating water quality deterioration through pollution, overexploitation, and habitat disturbance. Roodeplaat Dam in South Africa exemplifies these challenges, experiencing nutrient overload driven by malfunctioning wastewater treatment works (WWTWs), urban runoff, and agricultural activities. This study investigates the spatio–temporal dynamics of flow patterns and nutrient loads in Roodeplaat Dam, focusing on the interplay between nutrient pollution, land use, and land cover change (LULCC). A multi-site sampling approach was employed to assess total phosphorus (TP) and nitrate–nitrite (NO₃ + NO₂) loading, complemented by geospatial analysis of LULCC impacts over two decades. The study revealed that TP and NO₃ + NO₂ concentrations surpassed permissible limits at certain monitoring sites, particularly downstream of WWTWs during low-flow periods, demonstrating their substantial role in elevating nutrient levels. The study further revealed that extensive human-driven changes in the catchment area were key contributors to nutrient dynamics. These changes included a reduction in vegetation cover from 65% to 45.17%, an increase in soil exposure from 10.25% to 22.01%, and urban expansion from 26.56% to 32.32%. These alterations disrupt natural nutrient cycles, leading to increased runoff and potential eutrophication of water bodies. Thus, to address these challenges, this study underscores the need for an integrated strategy that combines nature-based solutions, enhanced wastewater treatment, stricter regulatory compliance, and adaptive management to mitigate pollution and improve water resource sustainability. The insights gained from this case study provide valuable guidance for managing similar systems in developing regions under increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures. Full article

Connectivity is crucial for species conservation, but most assessments define connectivity solely in terms of protected or natural areas and land covers without regard for the underlying thermal environment. As climate change accelerates, it is becoming increasingly important to not only assess land use and land cover changes (LULCC) but also how surface temperatures are evolving and creating more fragmented thermal refuges over time. This research investigates how the surface thermal environment has changed over time in Phoenix, Arizona, USA, a desert city in the southwestern United States, and how the spatial patterns of cooler refuges within the heat landscape, or “heatscape,” may be affecting wildlife habitat availability alongside LULCC. We quantify the structural and functional connectivity of thermal refuges using a suite of connectivity metrics from landscape ecology to demonstrate how the spatial distribution and configuration of these critical areas has changed over the last 35 years and what the implications are for the many wildlife species living in this desert environment. Results show that thermal refuge patches have been shrinking and becoming more fragmented over the past 35 years, with connectivity also declining over the same period. A key inflection point was identified in 2000, when the probability that cooler refuges patches were connected dropped to nearly zero, and it has remained at that low level ever since. These shifts in connectivity are tightly coupled with LULCC in the study area, particularly the loss of irrigated agriculture as it has been replaced by residential and other developed land uses over time. Decreasing water security in the region also threatens to reduce the availability of cooler patches and, simultaneously, the connectivity of those refuges. Introducing cooler patches through engineered materials or artificial shade may help offset some of the losses from irrigated lands. The findings offer a perspective for conservation research with implications for advancing a more formal thermal landscape ecology for understanding and improving the relationship between spatial thermal patterns and ecological processes. Full article

Climate change (CC) and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are significant drivers of hydrological change, and an effective watershed management requires a detailed understanding of their individual and the combined impact. This study focused on the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), Canada, and investigated how the basin responded to their changes using the MIKE SHE-MIKE Hydro River. Our findings revealed novel insights into ARB hydrological changes, including increment in non-vegetated lands (0.26%), savannas (1.28%), forests (0.53%), and urban areas (0.02%) while grasslands (2.07%) and shrublands (0.03%) decreased. Moreover, the basin experienced rising annual minimum (1.01 °C) and maximum (0.85 °C) temperatures but declining precipitation (6.2%). The findings suggested a significant impact of CC compared to LULCC as CC caused annual reduction in streamflow (7.9%), evapotranspiration (4.8%), and recharge (6.9%). Meanwhile, LULCC reduced streamflow (0.2%) and recharge (0.4%) but increased evapotranspiration (0.1%). The study revealed spatiotemporal variability across the ARB, with temperature impacts stronger in winter and precipitation influencing other seasons. Full article