Land Use and Land Cover Change Dynamics in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria from 1986 to 2024

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCCs) shapes catchment dynamics and is a key driver of hydrological risks, affecting hydrological responses as vegetated land is replaced with urban developments and cultivated land. The resultant hydrological risks are likely to become more critical in the future as the climate changes and becomes increasingly variable. Understanding the effects of LULCC is vital for developing land management strategies and reducing adverse effects on the hydrological cycle and the environment. This study examines LULCC dynamics in the Niger Delta Region (NDR) of Nigeria from 1986 to 2024. A supervised maximum likelihood classification was applied to Landsat 5 TM and 8 OLI images from 1986, 2015, and 2024. Five land use classes were classified: Water bodies, Rainforest, Built-up, Agriculture, and Mangrove. The overall accuracy of the land use classification and Kappa coefficients were 93% and 0.90, 91% and 0.87, 84% and 0.79 for 1986, 2015, and 2024, respectively. Between 1986 and 2024, built-up and agriculture areas substantially increased by about 8229 and 6727 km² (561% and 79%), respectively, with a concomitant decrease in mangrove and vegetation areas of about 14,350 and 10,844 km² (−54% and −42%), respectively. The spatial distribution of changes across the NDR states varied, with Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Rivers States experiencing the highest decrease in rainforest, with losses of 64%, 55, 44%, and 44% (5711 km², 3554 km², 2250 km², and 1297 km²), respectively. The NDR’s mangroves are evidently under serious threat. This has important implications, particularly given the important role played by mangrove forests in regulating hydrological hazards. The dramatic decrease in the NDR mangrove and rainforest could exacerbate climate-related impacts. The study provides quantitative information on LULCC dynamics that could be used to support planning on land management practices in the NDR as well as sustainable development.