Search Results (1,881)

Flash floods, exacerbated by climate change and land use alterations, are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, leading to significant damage and loss of life. In this context, the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), which is a terrain and land surface-based model, and Google Earth Engine (GEE) were used to assess flood-prone zones across North Macedonia’s watersheds. The presented GEE-based assessment was accomplished by a custom script that automates the FFPI calculation process by integrating key factors derived from publicly available sources. These factors, which define susceptibility to torrential floods, include slope (Copernicus GLO-30 DEM), land cover (Copernicus GLO-30 DEM), soil type (SoilGrids), vegetation (ESA World Cover), and erodibility (CHIRPS). The spatial distribution of average FFPI values across 1396 small catchments (10–100 km²) revealed that a total of 45.4% of the area exhibited high to very high susceptibility, with notable spatial variability. The CHIRPS rainfall data (2000–2024) that combines satellite imagery and in situ measurements was used to estimate peak 24 h runoff and discharge. To improve the accuracy of CHIRPS, the data were adjusted by 30–50% to align with meteorological station records, along with normalized FFPI values as runoff coefficients. Validation against 328 historical river flood and flash flood records confirmed that 73.2% of events aligned with moderate to very high flash flood susceptibility catchments, underscoring the model’s reliability. Thus, the presented cloud-based scenario highlights the potential of the GEE’s efficacy in scalability and robustness for flash flood modeling and regional risk management at national scale. Full article

The berth allocation and crane assignment problem (BACAP) is a key challenge in port logistics, particularly under dynamic and uncertain vessel arrival conditions. To address the limitations of existing methods in handling large-scale and high-disturbance scenarios, this paper proposes a novel optimization framework: Ternary Historical Memory-based Robust Clustered Particle Swarm Optimization (THM-RCPSO). In this method, the initial particle swarm is divided into multiple clusters, each conducting local searches to identify regional optima. These clusters then exchange information to iteratively refine the global best solution. A ternary historical memory mechanism further enhances the optimization by recording and comparing the best solutions from three different strategies, ensuring guidance from historical performance during exploration. Experimental evaluations on 25 dynamic BACAP benchmark instances show that THM-RCPSO achieves the lowest average vessel dwell time in 22 out of 25 cases, with the lowest overall average rank among five tested algorithms. Specifically, it demonstrates significant advantages on large-scale instances with 150 vessels, where it consistently outperforms competing methods such as HRBA, ACO, and GAMCS in both solution quality and robustness. These results confirm THM-RCPSO’s strong capability in solving dynamic and large-scale DBACAP scenarios with high disturbance levels. Full article

With the in-depth application of digital transformation in the oil industry, data-driven methods provide a new technical path for drilling engineering safety evaluation. In this paper, a data-driven drilling safety level evaluation system is proposed. By integrating the three-dimensional visualization technology of wellbore trajectory and the prediction model of friction torque, a dynamic and intelligent drilling risk evaluation framework is constructed. The Python platform is used to integrate geomechanical parameters, real-time drilling data, and historical working condition records, and the machine learning algorithm is used to train the friction torque prediction model to improve prediction accuracy. Based on the K-means clustering evaluation method, a three-tier drilling safety classification standard is established: Grade I (low risk) for friction (0–100 kN) and torque (0–10 kN·m), Grade II (medium risk) for friction (100–200 kN) and torque (10–20 kN·m), and Grade III (high risk) for friction (>200 kN) and torque (>20 kN·m). This enables intelligent quantitative evaluation of drilling difficulty. The system not only dynamically optimizes bottom-hole assembly (BHA) and drilling parameters but also continuously refines the evaluation model’s accuracy through a data backtracking mechanism. This provides a reliable theoretical foundation and technical support for risk early warning, parameter optimization, and intelligent decision-making in drilling engineering. Full article

Next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation is aimed at predicting users’ future visits based on their current status and historical check-in records, providing convenience to users and potential profits to businesses. The Graph Neural Network (GNN) has become a common approach for this task due to the capabilities of modeling relations between nodes in a global perspective. However, most existing studies overlook the more prevalent heterogeneous relations in real-world scenarios, and manually constructed graphs may suffer from inaccuracies. To address these limitations, we propose a model called Heterogeneous Graph Structure Learning for Next POI Recommendation (HGSL-POI), which integrates three key components: heterogeneous graph contrastive learning, graph structure learning, and sequence modeling. The model first employs meta-path-based subgraphs and the user–POI interaction graph to obtain initial representations of users and POIs. Based on these representations, it reconstructs the subgraphs through graph structure learning. Finally, based on the embeddings from the reconstructed graphs, sequence modeling incorporating graph neural networks captures users’ sequential preferences to make recommendations. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Additional studies confirm its robustness and superior performance across diverse recommendation tasks. Full article

Aquatic macrophytes are a vital component of lake ecosystems, profoundly influencing ecosystem structure and function. Under future scenarios of more frequent extreme floods and intensified lake eutrophication, aquatic macrophytes will face increasing challenges. Therefore, understanding aquatic macrophyte responses to flood disturbances and nutrient enrichment is crucial for predicting future vegetation dynamics in lake ecosystems. This study focuses on Huangmaotan Lake, a Yangtze River floodplain lake, where we reconstructed 200-year successional trajectories of macrophyte communities and their driving mechanisms. With a multiproxy approach we analyzed a well-dated sediment core incorporating plant macrofossils, grain size, nutrient elements, heavy metals, and historical flood records from the watershed. The results demonstrate a significant shift in the macrophyte community, from species that existed before 1914 to species that existed by 2020. Unlike the widespread macrophyte degradation seen in most regional lakes, this lake has maintained clear-water plant dominance and experienced continuous vegetation expansion over the past 50 years. We attribute this to the interrelated effects of floods and the enrichment of ecosystems with nutrients. Specifically, our findings suggest that nutrient enrichment can mitigate the stress effects of floods on aquatic macrophytes, while flood disturbances help reduce excess nutrient concentrations in the water column. These findings offer applicable insights for aquatic vegetation restoration in the Yangtze River floodplain and other comparable lake systems worldwide. Full article

Main roads are usually equipped with traffic flow monitoring devices in the road network to record the traffic flow data of the main roads in real time. Three complex scenarios, i.e., Y-junctions, multi-lane merging, and signalized intersections, are considered in this paper by developing a novel modeling system that leverages only historical main-road data to reconstruct branch-road volumes and identify pivotal time points where instantaneous observations enable robust inference of period-aggregate traffic volumes. Four mathematical models (I–IV) are built using the data given in appendix, with performance quantified via error metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE) and stability indices (perturbation sensitivity index, structure similarity score). Finally, the significant traffic flow change points are further identified by the PELT algorithm. Full article

This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations produce non-exceedance probability profiles, which indicate the likelihood of various flood levels occurring due to ice jams. The flood levels associated with specific return periods were validated using historical gauge records. The empirical equations require input parameters such as channel width, slope, and thalweg elevation, which were obtained from bathymetric surveys. This approach is applied to assess ice-jam flood hazards by extrapolating data from a gauged reach at Fort Simpson to an ungauged reach at Jean Marie River along the Mackenzie River in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The analysis further suggests that climate change is likely to increase the severity of ice-jam flood hazards in both reaches by the end of the century. This methodology is applicable to other cold-region rivers in Canada and northern Europe, provided similar fluvial geomorphological and hydro-meteorological data are available, making it a valuable tool for ice-jam flood risk assessment in other ungauged areas. Full article

Preserving historical porous materials requires careful monitoring of surface humidity to mitigate deterioration processes like salt crystallization, mold growth, and material decay. While microclimate monitoring is a recognized preventive conservation tool, its role in detecting surface-specific moisture risks remains underexplored. This study evaluates the relationship between indoor microclimate fluctuations and surface moisture dynamics across 13 historical sites in Northern Italy (Lake Como, Valtellina, Valposchiavo), encompassing diverse masonry typologies and environmental conditions. High-resolution sensors recorded temperature and relative humidity for a minimum of 13 months, and eight indicators—including dew point depression, critical temperature–humidity zones, and damp effect indices—were analyzed to assess the moisture risks. The results demonstrate that multivariate microclimate data could effectively predict humidity accumulation. The key findings reveal the impact of seasonal ventilation, thermal inertia, and localized air stagnation on moisture distribution, with unheated alpine sites showing the highest condensation risk. The study highlights the need for integrated monitoring approaches, combining dew point analysis, mixing ratio stability, and buffering performance, to enable early risk detection and targeted conservation strategies. These insights bridge the gap between environmental monitoring and surface moisture diagnostics in porous heritage materials. Full article

Background/Objectives: The Plague of Justinian marked the beginning of the First Pandemic (541–750 CE), yet no genomic evidence of Yersinia pestis has previously been recovered from the Eastern Mediterranean, where the outbreak was first recorded. This study aimed to determine whether Y. pestis was present in a mid-6th to early 7th century mass grave in Jerash, Jordan, and to characterize its genome within the broader context of First Pandemic strains. Methods: We analyzed samples from multiple individuals recovered from the Jerash mass grave. Initial screening for potential pathogen presence was conducted using proteomics. Select samples were subjected to ancient DNA extraction and whole genome sequencing. Comparative genomic and phylogenetic analyses were conducted to assess strain identity and evolutionary placement. Results: Genomic sequencing recovered Y. pestis DNA from five individuals, revealing highly similar genomes. All strains clustered tightly with other First Pandemic lineages but were notably recovered from a region geographically close to the pandemic’s historical epicenter for the first time. The near-identical genomes across diverse individuals suggest an outbreak of a single circulating lineage at the time of this outbreak. Conclusions: This study provides the first genomic evidence of Y. pestis in the Eastern Mediterranean during the First Pandemic, linking archaeological findings with pathogen genomics near the origin point of the Plague of Justinian. Summary Sentence: Genomic evidence links Y. pestis to the First Pandemic in an ancient city. Full article

Through a systematic review of sustainable rural dwelling recovery, this study offers a broader reflection on retrofitting practices, viewing eco-efficiency as a means to enhance both cultural heritage and agricultural landscapes. The work is based on the assumption that vernacular architecture in rural contexts embodies historical, cultural, and typological values worthy of preservation, while remaining adaptable to reuse through eco-efficient solutions and technological innovation. Using the PRISMA protocol, 115 scientific contributions were selected from 1711 initial records and classified into four macro-groups: landscape relationships; seismic and energy retrofitting; construction techniques and innovative materials; and morphological–typological analysis. Results show a predominance (over 50%) of passive design strategies, compatible materials, and low-impact techniques, while active systems are applied more selectively to protect cultural integrity. The study identifies replicable methodological models combining sustainability, cultural continuity, and functional adaptation, offering recommendations for future operational guidelines. Conscious eco-efficient retrofitting thus emerges as a strategic tool for the integrated valorization of rural landscapes and heritage. Full article

The paper provides an analysis of the causes of accidents in oil and gas pipeline systems. As part of a comprehensive overview of the topic, it also presents the historical development of pipeline systems, from the first commercial oil pipelines in the United States to modern infrastructure projects, with a particular focus on the role of regulatory requirements and measures (prevention, detection, and mitigation) to improve transport efficiency and pipeline safety. The research uses historical accident data from various databases to identify the main causes of accidents and analyse trends. The focus is on factors such as corrosion, third-party interference, and natural disasters that can lead to accidents. A comparison of the various accident databases shows that there are different practises and approaches to operation and reporting. As each database differs in terms of inclusion criteria, the categories are divided into five main groups to allow systematic interpretation of the data and cross-comparison of accident causes. Regional differences in the causes of accidents involving oil and gas pipelines in Europe, the USA, and Canada are visible. However, an integrated analysis shows that the number of accidents is declining in almost all categories. The majority of all recorded accidents are in the “Human factors and Operational disruption” and “Corrosion and Material damage” groups. It is recommended to use the database as required, as each category has its own specifics. Full article

On 20 April 2024, an extreme rainfall event occurred in Jiangwan Town Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province, China, where a historic 24 h precipitation of 206 mm was recorded. This triggered extensive landslides that destroyed residential buildings, severed roads, and drew significant societal attention. Rapid acquisition of landslide inventories, distribution patterns, and key controlling factors is critical for post-disaster emergency response and reconstruction. Based on high-resolution Planet satellite imagery, landslide areas in Jiangwan Town were automatically extracted using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) differential method, and a detailed landslide inventory was compiled. Combined with terrain, rainfall, and geological environmental factors, the spatial distribution and causes of landslides were analyzed. Results indicate that the extreme rainfall induced 1426 landslides with a total area of 4.56 km², predominantly small-to-medium scale. Landslides exhibited pronounced clustering and linear distribution along river valleys in a NE–SW orientation. Spatial analysis revealed concentrations on slopes between 200–300 m elevation with gradients of 20–30°. Four machine learning models—Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were employed to assess landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) accuracy. RF and XGBoost demonstrated superior performance, identifying high-susceptibility zones primarily on valley-side slopes in Jiangwan Town. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) value analysis quantified key drivers, highlighting elevation, rainfall intensity, profile curvature, and topographic wetness index as dominant controlling factors. This study provides an effective methodology and data support for rapid rainfall-induced landslide identification and deep learning-based susceptibility assessment. Full article

Obsidian was a key toolstone for the development of maritime lifeways in the western archipelago of southernmost South America. This area is a fragmented landscape where the major north–south movement of people along the Pacific was only possible by navigation because it is constrained by major biogeographic barriers. Two obsidian sources have been recorded, each one located on the extremes of the archipelago, and each has played a key role in the canoe-adapted societies that used them. As indicated by repeated inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses, obsidian from Chaitén Volcano to the north was distributed between 38°26′ S and 45°20′ S, and obsidian from Seno Otway to the south was distributed between 50° and 55° S, although it mainly occurred in sites close to the Strait of Magellan and within constrained time periods. This study explores the distribution of these two types of obsidians, their chronology, their frequencies in the archaeological record, the main artifact classes that are represented, and the technological processes in which they were involved. This examination indicates common aspects in the selection of high-quality toolstones for highly mobile maritime groups and discusses the different historical trajectories of two obsidians that appear decoupled across the Holocene. Full article

The application of artificial intelligence through the brain–computer interface (BCI) is proving to be one of the great advances in neuroscience today. The development of surface electrodes over the cortex and very fine electrodes that can be stereotactically implanted in the brain have moved the science forward to the extent that paralyzed people can play chess and blind people can read letters. However, the introduction of foreign bodies into deeper parts of the central nervous system results in foreign body reaction, scarring, apoptosis, and decreased signaling. Implanted electrodes activate microglia, causing the release of inflammatory factors, the recruitment of systemic inflammatory cells to the site of injury, and ultimately glial scarring and the encapsulation of the electrode. Recordings historically fail between 6 months and 1 year; the longest BCI in use has been 7 years. This article proposes a biomolecular strategy provided by angiogenic cell precursors (ACPs) and nerve cell precursors (NCPs), administered intrathecally. This combination of cells is anticipated to sustain and promote learning across the BCI. Together, through the downstream activation of neurotrophic factors, they may exert a salutary immunomodulatory suppression of inflammation, anti-apoptosis, homeostasis, angiogenesis, differentiation, synaptogenesis, neuritogenesis, and learning-associated plasticity. Full article

Vessel trajectory prediction is fundamental to maritime navigation, safety, and operational efficiency, particularly as the industry increasingly relies on digital solutions and real-time data analytics. This study addresses the challenge of forecasting vessel movements using historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, with a focus on understanding the temporal behavior of deep learning models under different input and prediction horizons. To this end, a robust data pre-processing pipeline was developed to ensure temporal consistency, filter anomalous records, and segment continuous vessel trajectories. Using a curated dataset from the eastern Mediterranean, three deep recurrent neural network architectures, namely LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and Bi-GRU, were evaluated for short- and long-term trajectory prediction. Empirical results demonstrate that Bi-LSTM consistently achieves higher accuracy across both horizons, with performance gradually degrading under extended forecast windows. The analysis also reveals key insights into the trade-offs between model complexity, horizon-specific robustness, and predictive stability. This work contributes to maritime informatics by offering a comparative evaluation of recurrent architectures and providing a structured and empirical foundation for selecting and deploying trajectory forecasting models in operational contexts. Full article