Search Results (1,025)

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the combined effects of progressive urbanization and changes in precipitation patterns (PPs) on the urban water cycle. The primary objective was to evaluate historical (1940–2024) and projected (to 2060) changes in total annual surface runoff (TSR) and retention capacity (RC) in the highly urbanized catchment of the Dłubnia River in Cracow, Poland. Simulations were performed using the EPA SWMM hydrodynamic model, supported by digitized historical land-use maps and long-term meteorological records. The results demonstrate that the dominant driver of the observed 6.4-fold increase in TSR and 6.8-fold loss of retention capacity (LRC) over the study period was the progressive increase in impervious surfaces. Although inter-annual variability in the amount and structure of annual precipitation (AP) strongly correlates with annual TSR (r = 0.97), its contribution to the long-term upward trend in TSR is marginal (r = 0.19). Land use and land cover change (LULC) exhibits an extremely strong correlation with the long-term TSR trend (r = 0.998). The study also highlights the high effectiveness of nature-based solutions (NbSs), particularly bioretention cells (BCs)/rain gardens, in mitigating the adverse hydrological effects of excessive surface sealing. Implementation of BCs covering just 3–4% of the total drained roof and road area is sufficient to fully offset the projected combined negative impacts of further urbanization and climate change (CC) in scope Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projections on catchment retention capacity by 2060. These findings position strategically targeted, relatively small-scale bioretention as one of the most effective and feasible urban adaptation measures in mature, densely developed cities. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive geospatial framework for assessing coastal vulnerability and ecosystem service distribution along the Greek coastline, one of the longest and most diverse in Europe. The framework integrates two complementary components: a Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index applied to all identified beach units, and Coastal Flood Risk Indexes focused on low-lying and urbanized coastal segments. Both indices draw on harmonized, open-access European datasets to represent environmental, geomorphological, and socio-economic dimensions of risk. The Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index is developed through a multi-criteria approach that combines indicators of physical erodibility, such as historical shoreline retreat, projected erosion under climate change, offshore wave power, and the cover of seagrass meadows, with socio-economic exposure metrics, including land use composition, population density, and beach-based recreational values. Inclusive accessibility for wheelchair users is also integrated to highlight equity-relevant aspects of coastal services. The Coastal Flood Risk Indexes identify flood-prone areas by simulating inundation through a novel point-based, computationally efficient geospatial method, which propagates water inland from coastal entry points using Extreme Sea Level (ESL) projections for future scenarios, overcoming the limitations of static ‘bathtub’ approaches. Together, the indices offer a spatially explicit, scalable framework to inform coastal zone management, climate adaptation planning, and the prioritization of nature-based solutions. By integrating vulnerability mapping with ecosystem service valuation, the framework supports evidence-based decision-making while aligning with key European policy goals for resilience and sustainable coastal development. Full article

Coastal settlements worldwide face increasing threats from erosion, and the Monrovia coastline in Liberia is no exception. This study investigates shoreline dynamics along a 20.5 km stretch of Monrovia’s coast, which is characterized by low-lying elevations, gentle slopes, and sandy beaches. Using Landsat satellite imagery (1986–2025), supported by Sentinel-2 MSI and qualitative validation drone data, we analyzed historical shoreline change with remote sensing and GIS techniques. Shorelines were extracted using a band-ratio thresholding method and quantified with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS 5.0), applying end-point rate (EPR), linear regression rate (LRR), and net shoreline movement (NSM). Exploratory projections for 2036 and 2046 were generated using a Kalman Filter model integrated into DSAS. Results show maximum historical erosion rates of up to 3.8 m/yr and accretion rates of up to 5.9 m/yr, with shoreline retreat reaching 150 m and advance up to 194 m. Erosion hotspots are projected for Hotel Africa, Westpoint, New Kru Town, and the JFK–ELWA corridor, while areas near the St. Paul and Mesurado estuaries are expected to accrete. These findings confirm historical trends and suggest that Monrovia will continue to face significant shoreline change, with implications for natural habitats, infrastructure, land loss, and population displacement. Full article

Soil erosion remains a critical global concern, yet long-term catchment-scale assessments that explicitly link historical land-use transitions with erosion responses remain limited. This study evaluates how ±240 years record of historical and projected land-use changes influence soil erosion in the Myjava Basin by integrating parcel-level land-use reconstructions from 1787 to 2030 into a distributed USLE-2D framework. R, K, and parcel-based C and P factors were temporally standardized, and LS was derived using an ensemble of four widely applied algorithms. A PCA was applied to quantify the relative contribution of RUSLE factors across time, and all analyses were performed within a reproducible geospatial modelling environment. The results indicated a long-term decline in total erosion of ±78% at the landscape scale and ±60% within arable land from the 19th century to the present, driven mainly by a major reduction in arable land (from ±62% to ±37%) and expansion of forest and shrub vegetation. Despite this decline, persistent hotspots remain concentrated on steep upland slopes with high LS (>10%), while agricultural parcels experienced erosion rates 10–20 times higher than the basin-wide mean across all periods. PCA shows that LS and rainfall erosivity dominate erosion variability (PC loadings ±0.78–0.84), while C and P factors increase in influence in recent and projected periods, contributing up to ±40% of total explained variance. These findings demonstrate that long-term land-use transitions have substantially reduced basin-scale erosion risk. Full article

Historical cropland reconstruction is crucial for modeling long-term agricultural dynamics and assessing their climatic and ecosystem impacts, while also providing critical regional benchmarks for improving global land-use datasets. This study presents a millennium-long reconstruction of cropland area at the provincial level for the Korean Peninsula by integrating multi-source historical cropland records, land surveys, and modern statistical and remote-sensing-based data. Then, a land suitability model for cultivation and a spatial allocation model were developed by incorporating topographic, climatic, and soil variables to generate 10 km resolution gridded cropland data over the past millennium. Our analysis revealed a long-term increasing trend in cropland area at the provincial level over the past millennium, with significant spatial and temporal variations. Spatially, cropland was primarily distributed in western coastal areas, with historical southward expansion. After the peninsula’s division, trends diverged, with continued growth in the north Korea but a decrease in the south Korea by 2000. The spatial allocation model validation results show strong spatial and quantitative agreement between the reconstructed historical cropland and the remote-sensing-based data, with 72.12% of grids differing by less than ±20%. This high consistency confirms the feasibility of the applied reconstruction method. Full article

Urban lakes, as critical components of urban ecosystems, provide essential ecological services but face water quality deterioration due to rapid urbanization and associated land use changes. This study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics and evolution mechanisms of water quality in Wuhan city lakes, with a focus on the Great East Lake basin (GELB), a typical urban lake cluster in the middle Yangtze River basin. By integrating monthly water quality monitoring data (2017–2023) with high-resolution land use data (2020), we employed the Water Quality Index (WQI), Spearman correlation analysis, and Redundancy Analysis (RDA) to assess water quality and the impact of land use on major pollutants. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity: Sha Lake (SL) exhibited the best water quality, while Yangchun Lake (YCL) and North Lake (NL) showed the worst conditions. Seasonal variations in water quality were observed, influenced by the ecological functions of lakes and surrounding land use. Notably, understanding these seasonal dynamics provides insights into nutrient cycle operations and their effective management under varying climatic conditions. In addition, the correlation between chlorophyll-a concentration and nutrient elements in urban lakes was not consistent, with some lakes showing significant negative correlations. The water quality of urban lakes is influenced by both land use and human management. Land use analysis indicated high impervious surfaces in East Lake (EL), SL, and YCL exacerbated runoff-driven nutrient loads, the nitrogen elevation from agricultural runoff of Yan East Lake (YEL) and NL’s pollution from historical industrial discharge. This study highlights the urgent need for targeted water management strategies to mitigate the impact of urbanization on water quality and provide a scientific basis for effective governance and ecological restoration in rapidly urbanizing areas around the world. By adopting an integrated approach combining water quality assessments with land use data, this research offers valuable insights for sustainable urban lake management. Full article

The Balaton region is Hungary’s most important recreational area, known for Central Europe’s largest freshwater lake and its traditional vineyard and horticultural landscapes. Since 1990, vineyard and orchard abandonment and intensified shoreline urbanization have increasingly threatened both landscape character and ecological balance. This study analyses land-use changes in the Balaton hinterland and evaluates the effectiveness of regional land-use regulation between 1990 and 2018, with a focus on the 2000 Balaton Law (BKÜRT), which sought to preserve traditional land uses by permitting construction only where at least 80% of vineyard parcels remained cultivated. Spatial–temporal analysis was based on CORINE Land Cover (CLC) data from 1990 to 2018, supplemented by change layers from the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service. The CORINE Land Cover classification is a three-level hierarchical system (5 Level-1 groups, 15 Level-2 classes, and 44 Level-3 classes) developed by the EEA to provide standardized, satellite-based land cover information across Europe. Land cover was aggregated into major categories (using Level-1 and Level-2 classes) relevant to the Hungarian landscape. To address CLC limitations related to representing vineyards as relatively homogeneous units despite substantial differences in the density and scale of built structures, detailed case studies were conducted in three C1 vineyard zones—Alsóörs, Paloznak, and Szentantalfa—using historical aerial photographs, Google Earth imagery, and the Hungarian Ecosystem Map (NÖSZTÉP). Despite the restrictive regulatory framework, the CLC database showed that the share of vineyards in the vineyard regulation zone (C-1, C-2) decreased between 1990 and 2018 from 45.4% to 35.8% (the share of gardens and fruit plantations had changed from 9.7% to 15.5%). In the whole Balaton region, there was an approximately 18% decline in vineyard areas. Considering the M-2 horticultural zone, the garden coverage increased from 18.9% in 1990 (17.7% in 2000) to 30.5% (share of vineyards changed from 54.3% (54.6% in 2000) to 38.8%). At the regional level, gardens and fruit plantations had a smaller decrease (3.2%). Although overall trends were more favorable than at the national level, regulatory measures proved insufficient to prevent the conversion of vineyards and orchards in sensitive areas, particularly on slopes overlooking the lake, in proximity to tourist hubs, and in areas exposed to strong development pressure. By 2018, the C1 zone had expanded spatially but became less targeted, as the proportion of vineyards within it decreased. Boundary refinements failed to substantially improve regulatory precision or effectiveness. The case studies reveal a gradient of regulatory strictness reflecting differing landscape protection priorities and stages of vineyard transformation, with Alsóörs responding to long-standing, partly irreversible changes while attempting to slow further landscape alteration. To counter ongoing negative trends, more targeted and enforceable regulations are required, including a clearer separation of cultivated and recreational land uses, a maximum building size of 80 m² for recreational properties, and a reassessment of vineyard zone boundaries to better reflect active cultivation and protect sensitive landscapes. Full article

The effects of global change on the planet are undeniable, especially in terms of climate change, which is alarming in regions with water resource deficiencies, such as arid and semi-arid territories. One such territory is the Region of Murcia (Spain), in the southeast of which lies the Campo de Cartagena region. It is place where rainwater has historically been essential for settlement and traditional agricultural and livestock farming, giving rise to a valuable, now-forgotten water heritage. Through historical, spatial, climatic, and statistical analysis, we aim to demonstrate the significant implementation of these infrastructures in the study area and identify the causes of their abandonment, despite the continued increase in demand for water by all economic sectors, especially the agricultural, urban and tourism sectors. The results demonstrate the existence of five traditional runoff management infrastructures (cisterns, dams, runoff water channels, terracing and benching), and that the effects of global change have been decisive in their neglect, especially those related to climate change and land use modifications, in addition to increased demographic and socioeconomic pressure. Full article

(1) Background: Rubus geoides Sm., a native species of southern Patagonia, faces increasing threats due to climate change and anthropogenic land-use changes. Historically widespread, its distribution has become restricted by overgrazing, urban expansion, extractive industries, and direct harvesting from natural populations driven by interest in its nutraceutical potential since the first European settlements. (2) Methods: To assess its resilience and conservation prospects, we analyzed the morphological variability, genetic diversity, and population structure, complemented by species distribution modeling under past and future climate scenarios. (3) Results: Our findings reveal moderate genetic differentiation and private alleles in specific populations, alongside significant variation in flowering phenology. Paternity analysis indicates a tendency toward self-pollination, although this conclusion is constrained by the limited number of microsatellite markers employed. These results suggest post-glacial dispersal patterns and highlight the species’ potential for expansion under certain climate scenarios. (4) Conclusions: This study provides critical insights for biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management, directly aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals SDG 15 (Life on Land). Indirectly, this study contributes to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by highlighting the importance of threatened species that hold value for human consumption and food security. Land-use changes, particularly mining and green hydrogen industry settlements, may represent stronger limitations to species expansion than climate change itself. Full article

Urban flooding has become a critical environmental challenge under global climate change and rapid urbanization. This study develops a multi-indicator hazard mechanism framework for flood hazard assessment in Rizhao, a coastal city in China, by integrating three fundamental hydrological processes: runoff generation, flow convergence, and drainage. Based on geospatial data—including DEM, road networks, land cover, and soil characteristics—six key indicators were evaluated using the TOPSIS method: runoff curve number, impervious surface percentage, topographic wetness index, time of concentration, pipeline density, and distance to rivers. The results show that extreme-hazard zones, covering 6.41% of the central urban area, are primarily clustered in northern sectors, where flood susceptibility is driven by the synergistic effects of high imperviousness, short concentration time, and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Independent validation using historical flood records confirmed the model’s reliability, with 83.72% of documented waterlogging points located in predicted high-hazard zones and an AUC value of 0.737 indicating good discriminatory performance. Based on spatial hazard patterns and causal mechanisms, an integrated mitigation strategy system of “source reduction, process regulation, and terminal enhancement” is proposed. This strategy provides practical guidance for pipeline rehabilitation and sponge city implementation in Rizhao’s resilience planning, while the developed hazard mechanism framework of “runoff–convergence–drainage” provides a transferable methodology for flood hazard assessment in large-scale urban environments. Full article

Urbanization has accelerated globally, with the proportion of people living in cities increasing from 43% in 1990 to 56% today. This rapid urban growth profoundly affects Earth’s surface climate by altering land surface characteristics and energy fluxes. Using Landsat–MODIS data fusion to characterize land use in a biophysical model, this study assesses the global thermal impact of urbanization through two complementary metrics: the Urban Heat Island (UHI), measuring the temperature contrast between urban and adjacent vegetated areas, and an Urban Impact Metric (UIM), quantifying the net warming effect of urban land relative to a fully vegetated baseline. Results indicate that although urban areas cover only 0.31% of global land, they contribute disproportionately to surface warming, particularly in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where impervious surface cover is dense. While the UHI captures localized thermal contrasts, UIM provides a spatially integrated, scalable indicator of urban-induced warming. Globally, the annual mean UHI is 1.21 °C while the urban-induced warming is 0.77 °C. This result is striking, given the limited areal extent of urbanization, and exceeds the net historical effect of land use change, underscoring the disproportionate impact of urbanization on surface temperature. These results highlight urbanization’s outsized role in shaping surface temperature patterns across regions and seasons. Full article

Dry climate regions face heightened risks of flooding and infrastructure damage even with minimal rainfall. Climate change is intensifying this vulnerability by increasing the duration, frequency, and intensity of precipitation events in areas that have historically experienced arid conditions. As a result, accurate precipitation estimation in these regions is critical for effective planning, risk mitigation, and infrastructure resilience. This study evaluates the performance of five satellite- and model-based precipitation products by comparing them against in situ rain gauge observations in a dry-climate region: The fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) (analyzing maximum and minimum precipitation rates separately), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2), the Western Land Data Assimilation System (WLDAS), and the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG). The analysis focuses on both average daily rainfall and extreme precipitation events, with particular attention to precipitation magnitude and the accuracy of event detection, using a combination of statistical metrics—including bias ratio, mean error, and correlation coefficient—as well as contingency statistics such as probability of detection, false alarm rate, missed precipitation fraction, and false precipitation fraction. The study area is Palm Desert, a mountainous, arid, and urban region in Southern California, which exemplifies the challenges faced by dry regions under changing climate conditions. Among the products assessed, WLDAS ranked highest in measuring total precipitation and extreme rainfall amounts but performed the worst in detecting the occurrence of both average and extreme rainfall events. In contrast, IMERG and ERA5-MIN demonstrated the strongest ability to detect the timing of precipitation, though they were less accurate in estimating the magnitude of rainfall per event. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the reliability and limitations of different precipitation estimation products in dry regions, where even small amounts of rainfall can have disproportionately large impacts on infrastructure and public safety. Full article

The study examines the recent transformation of traditional agricultural landscapes in the transition zone between Sierra de las Nieves and the Western Costa del Sol (Andalusia, Spain), one of the European regions where urban development pressure has reached its peak in replacing agricultural land with residential and tourism uses. Through a diachronic analysis of historical orthophotos (1956–2025), statistical sources (Agricultural Census, SIGPAC), and fieldwork, land-use changes and their impact on ecological functionality and territorial resilience are quantified. Results reveal a widespread loss of agricultural land—exceeding 68% overall—particularly severe in Benahavís, where more than 70% of farmland has disappeared, largely converted to urban areas. In contrast, in Istán and Ojén, the predominant trend is the renaturalization of abandoned agricultural land. These dynamics illustrate a coastal–inland territorial model that epitomizes the Mediterranean “territorial consumption” process, in which tourism-driven urbanization fragments traditional agroforestry mosaics. The study concludes that, despite their regression, traditional agricultural landscapes continue to play a key role in water regulation, soil conservation, and wildfire risk mitigation. Their restoration and maintenance are proposed as a replicable strategy for climate change adaptation and for reconciling territorial sustainability with economic development in other Mediterranean regions under intense urban pressure. Full article

In line with UNESCO’s Historic Urban Landscape approach, this study highlights the need for integrative tools that connect heritage conservation with broader urban development dynamics, balancing preservation and growth. While several machine-learning models have been applied to analyse the drivers of urban change, there remains a need for comparative analyses that assess their strengths, limitations, and potential for combined applications tailored to specific contexts. This study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of three land-use change models (Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Recursive Partitioning Regression Trees) in estimating the probability of land-use transitions, as well as their interpretative capacity to identify the main factors driving these changes. Using data from the Bellavista neighborhood in Tomé, Chile, the models were assessed through prediction and performance metrics, probability maps, and an analysis of key driving factors. The results underscore the potential of integrating predictive (Random Forest) and interpretative (Logistic Regression and Recursive Partitioning Regression Trees) approaches to support heritage planning. Specifically, the research demonstrates how these models can be effectively combined by leveraging their respective strengths: employing Random Forest for spatial simulations, Logistic Regression for identifying associative factors, and Recursive Partitioning Regression Trees for generating intuitive decision rules. Overall, the study shows that land-use change models constitute valuable tools for managing urban transformation in heritage urban areas of intermediate cities. Full article

Historical cropland cover change reconstruction is essential for understanding long-term agricultural reclamation dynamics, particularly for modeling carbon and nitrogen cycles and assessing their climatic impacts. Such reconstructions also provide critical regional benchmarks for improving global land-use datasets. In this study, we integrated historical documents and land survey records spanning the Heian period (794–1185 CE) to the present with modern remote sensing data to develop a spatially explicit methodology for reconstructing Japan’s cropland extent over the past millennium. Our analysis revealed four distinct phases of cropland area change, (1) slow expansion (800–1338 CE), (2) gradual decline (1338–1598 CE), (3) rapid growth (1598–1940 CE), and (4) sharp contraction (1940–2000 CE), with significant regional variations. Spatially, cropland progressively expanded from the core Kansai and Kantō regions toward the southwestern and northeastern frontiers. Cropland cover changes in Japan over the past millennium were driven by a combination of socio-political factors—such as technological innovations in agriculture, feudal conflicts, demographic shifts, agricultural industrialization, and urbanization—as well as natural conditions, including topography, climate, and soil texture. Validation against year-2000 remote sensing data demonstrated high accuracy, with 69.12% of grid cells showing ≤20% absolute difference and only 0.15% exceeding ±80% deviation. Full article