Search Results (63)

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of runoff and its driving mechanisms is of great significance for water resources development, utilization, and sustainable management in mid- to high-latitude river basins under climate change. However, runoff variability is jointly influenced by multiple meteorological factors, and a comprehensive understanding of its multi-scale response characteristics and the relative contributions of different drivers remains limited. In this study, runoff data from three hydrological stations in the Songhua River Basin during 1980–2022 were analyzed. A set of statistical and time-series methods, including the Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt change-point test, Hurst exponent, wavelet analysis, and wavelet coherence, was applied, and a random forest model was used to quantify the influence of key climatic factors such as precipitation, air temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results show that air temperature exhibits significant increasing trends in all four seasons, with the strongest warming occurring in spring (Sen’s slope ≈ 0.06 °C a⁻¹). Precipitation displays pronounced spatial heterogeneity and interannual variability, while evapotranspiration shows an overall increasing trend. Both runoff and major meteorological variables exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across the basin. Hydro-meteorological variables also show distinct periodic variations among seasons, with temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration exhibiting stronger seasonal fluctuations during summer. Wavelet coherence analysis indicates that short-term runoff variability is mainly driven by temperature and precipitation. Temperature exhibits significant coherence with runoff across multiple time scales ranging from approximately 2 to 20 years, whereas precipitation shows stronger coherence at medium- to long-term scales (approximately 10–35 years), with evident seasonal differences. Random forest results indicate that evapotranspiration is the most important contributor to runoff variability at all three stations, accounting for 33.5%, 28.6%, and 26.2% of the total importance at Jiamusi, Fuyu, and Jiangqiao stations, respectively. Temperature and sunshine duration rank second, while precipitation and relative humidity contribute comparatively less. These findings indicate that evapotranspiration plays a key regulatory role in long-term water balance. In addition, runoff exhibits multi-scale variability and a transition from gradual changes to stage-like abrupt shifts. The findings provide a scientific basis for water resources management, flood mitigation, and climate change adaptation in the Songhua River Basin. Full article

Shallow-buried coal seams in western China are commonly overlain by deeply incised gully terrain, where mining is often accompanied by coal-wall spalling and abnormal increases in support resistance, which affect safe and efficient production. To investigate overburden failure during shallow-buried coal seam mining under gully terrain and to clarify the support–resistance mechanism, a typical working face was selected as the engineering background. Physical similarity simulation, 3DEC numerical simulation, and theoretical analysis were used to analyze overburden failure characteristics and the coupled evolution of the stress, displacement, and fracture fields. Mechanical models of key-stratum fracture and a support–resistance estimation model were established to reveal the influence of overburden-thickness variation on key-stratum fracture and support resistance. The results show that overburden failure in gully areas exhibits pronounced stage-dependent and asymmetric characteristics. In the similarity simulation, the initial fracture intervals of the key stratum in the downhill section were 32 m and 36 m, indicating an asymmetric fracture pattern with a shorter span on the left side and a longer span on the right side. In the uphill section, the periodic fracture interval of the key stratum decreased from 30 m to 24 m as the overburden thickness increased. During overburden failure in gully areas, the three fields exhibited a coupled relationship: stress concentration at the working face caused overburden failure and subsidence, which promoted fracture propagation, whereas stress redistribution in the goaf compacted the fractured overburden and promoted fracture closure. The overburden failure characteristics differed significantly between mining stages. During downhill mining, the key stratum behaved as a fixed-ended beam with a relatively large fracture interval, whereas during uphill mining, it formed a cantilever beam, and its fracture interval decreased with increasing overburden thickness. The loading mechanism of support resistance was shown to be jointly controlled by variations in gully overburden thickness and key-stratum fracture. During downhill mining, support loading increased gradually under the support of the fixed-ended beam key stratum. During uphill mining, support loading exhibited periodic abrupt increases under the combined effects of increasing overburden thickness and periodic fracture of the cantilever-beam key stratum. These findings provide a theoretical basis for strata pressure control at working faces in gully areas. Full article

This study examines the multi-scale relationships between extreme climate indices and maize yield from a hydrothermal perspective, across both temporal (long-term trends, interannual anomalies, and abrupt changes) and spatial (regional and grid) scales in the Chengdu–Chongqing region, using long-term meteorological (1985–2025) and crop yield (1982–2015) datasets. Results reveal pronounced warming and drying trends, characterized by increasing warm-related temperature extremes and consecutive dry days, along with a decline in cold extremes. A shift toward drier conditions occurred around 2005, while temperature extremes have exhibited stepwise changes since the late 1990s. Maize yield shows a significant upward trend with an abrupt increase around 1997, closely linked to reduced cold stress. Scale-dependent analyses reveal that climate-yield relationships are primarily expressed through long-term hydrothermal changes rather than short-term variability, with maize yield showing positive responses to warm conditions and prolonged dry spell duration, and negative responses to cold extremes and excessive precipitation. In contrast, relationships based on interannual anomalies are weak and spatially inconsistent, suggesting limited sensitivity of yield to short-term climate variability due to system buffering and agricultural adaptation. Spatially, climate–yield relationships exhibit marked heterogeneity, with temperature constraints dominating in the western region and moisture-related effects being more pronounced in the central–eastern basin. Mechanistically, abrupt change analysis indicates two distinct controls: cold extremes act as threshold constraints associated with rapid yield shifts, whereas warming and drying exert gradual cumulative effects on productivity. Overall, maize yield dynamics are more strongly associated with long-term hydrothermal evolution than interannual variability, highlighting the importance of distinguishing temporal scales, hydrothermal regimes and long-term agricultural system evolution in climate–crop assessments under ongoing climate change. Full article

Industry 4.0 requires IoT ontologies that are interoperable, scalable, and adaptive in non-stationary industrial environments. This study combines methodological ontology optimization with a hybrid elastic framework for dynamic semantic updates and feedback-driven refinement. The methodological component systematizes literature and industrial practices to identify structural gaps and derive practical requirements. The engineering component integrates truth-table-based data structuring, vector–matrix automata for real-time classification and clustering, and in-memory event processing for low-latency operation. Experimental evaluation across no-drift, abrupt-drift, gradual-drift, and cyclic-drift scenarios shows a trade-off between semantic proximity and operational robustness: the rule-based approach reaches lower semantic distance in drift regimes, while the hybrid approach delivers higher stability and fewer false alarms in cyclic dynamics. All tested configurations preserve sub-millisecond processing latency, supporting edge/fog deployment. The results indicate that combining methodological analysis with elastic architecture is a practical pathway from static to adaptive IoT ontologies and a relevant step toward human-centric Industry 5.0 systems. Full article

During freeway reconstruction and expansion, median crossover sections where traffic is maintained during construction are vulnerable to changes in lane configuration, abrupt geometric changes, and construction interference. These factors may lead to safety risks and operational efficiency losses. Existing studies have mainly relied on microscopic traffic simulation to evaluate speed limit schemes, while engineering costs, environmental impacts, driver responses, and policy constraints have rarely been considered in an integrated manner. This study proposes a two-stage evaluation framework that integrates VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation, the Entropy Weight Method–Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (EWM–TOPSIS), and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). A four to eight-lane freeway expansion project in a plain area of northern China is used as the case study. Field speed data from a representative median crossover section are used for model calibration and speed-pattern analysis. A total of 27 simulation scenarios is then constructed by combining three bottleneck types, three traffic saturation levels, and three speed limit schemes. The EWM–TOPSIS results show that the 80→70 km/h scheme achieves the highest relative closeness in all scenarios. The FAHP evaluation, based on six criteria and 21 indicators, also ranks this scheme first. Its ranking remains unchanged under ±10% criteria weight perturbations. Field speed comparison indicates that vehicles exhibit a deceleration–recovery pattern when passing through the crossover opening. Overall, the 80→70 km/h gradual speed reduction scheme can be regarded as a candidate scheme for work zones with similar median crossover configurations. Under localized calibration conditions, it can provide decision-making support for reducing operational disturbances, fuel consumption, and external impacts associated with crash risk. Full article

This article examines Bahçeşehir as an originally planned satellite town whose spatial and social fabric has been reshaped through incremental transformations rather than formal urban renewal. While urban change in Türkiye is predominantly discussed through state-led regeneration and large-scale interventions, comparatively little attention has been paid to how gradual, everyday modifications within planned residential environments accumulate over time and affect residents’ lived experience. Addressing this gap, the study investigates how incremental changes in residential open spaces reshape everyday practices and residents’ perceptions of urban quality of life. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork, including in-depth interviews, field observations, and visual–spatial documentation, the analysis employs a systematic thematic coding process using MAXQDA to trace the evolving relationships between planning ideals, governance arrangements, and everyday spatial practices. The findings reveal three interrelated dynamics. First, the gradual fragmentation and partial privatization of open spaces undermined their collective functions. Second, incremental densification and infrastructural pressures reshaped mobility patterns and everyday accessibility. Third, governance ambiguities weakened residents’ sense of ownership, institutional trust, and neighbourhood cohesion. By conceptualizing governance-driven incremental transformation, the study demonstrates how the erosion of planning principles unfolds not through abrupt interventions but through cumulative spatial, institutional, and social shifts. The case of Bahçeşehir contributes to debates on suburban development, open space governance, and urban quality of life by highlighting how governance restructuring operates as a critical yet often overlooked driver of long-term urban transformation in planned residential environments. Full article

During a period of intense solar activity and highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions, a large Forbush decrease began on 10 May 2024 accompanied by a historic geomagnetic storm that lasted for four days. This extreme geomagnetic disturbance classified as G5 according to “NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms” is referred to in the literature as the Mother’s Day Storm. This resulted from multiple, at least seven, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that had been occurring since 7 May. In addition, on 11 May, a powerful X5.8 class solar flare, reaching its maximum at 01:32 UT, was followed by an abrupt increase in proton flux with energies > 100 MeV (with onset on 11 May at 01:45 UT and peaking at 02:45 UT), as recorded by GOES satellites. This resulted in a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE), identified as GLE74, occurring on 11 May 2024 during the recovery phase of the deep Forbush decrease (~15%). This Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event consisted of both impulsive and gradual components, where the high-energy tail of the gradual component was recorded by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. Approximately 15 minutes after the onset of the SEP event and 40 minutes prior to its peak, an alert was issued by the GLE Alert++ system of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), available as a federated product on the ESA SWE Portal under the Space Radiation Expert Service Centre. In this paper, a description of the solar activity, i.e., solar flares and CMEs, occurring during this time period is given. Moreover, recordings of cosmic ray data obtained by ground-based neutron monitors are used to perform a detailed analysis of GLE74. Finally, the response of the NKUA GLE Alert++ system to GLE74 is thoroughly presented. Full article

This study aimed to assess the impact of gradual versus abrupt light–dark transitions on the pectoral muscle, heart, tibia, and eye tissues of broilers, focusing on rearing disorders. A total of 270 male broiler chicks (ROSS-308) were divided into three groups according to the type of light transition: abrupt, 30-min gradual, and 1-h gradual changes in light intensity. The broilers were reared for six weeks, after which samples were collected for gross examination, morphometric and histomorphometric measurements, and histopathological analysis of the pectoral muscle, heart, tibia, and eye. White striping incidence in the pectoral muscle was not significantly affected by light–dark transition type. Results indicated that broilers in the 30-min gradual transition group had a higher relative heart weight than those in the abrupt-transition group (p < 0.05), although the RV/TV ratio did not differ. Tibial measurements, including weight, length, and cortical index, showed no differences across groups. Broilers exposed to a 1-h gradual transition between light and dark periods showed significantly greater eye weights compared to both the birds in the abrupt transition group and the birds in the 30-min transition group (p < 0.01). Overall, gradual light transitions did not substantially affect pectoral muscle or bone health but had minor effects on heart and eye weights in broilers reared under intensive production systems. Full article

This study investigates the complex dynamics of public discourse surrounding Confucius Institutes (CIs) across the hybrid social networks of mainstream news and social platforms from 2010 to 2023. Employing a longitudinal, multi-platform design, we analyzed news articles and tweets using a computational framework combining topic modeling and sentiment analysis. Our results reveal a shared cross-platform narrative evolution from a “culture-first” to a “politics-central” orientation. However, the trajectory differed significantly: mainstream media underwent a gradual, policy-oriented shift, while social media exhibited an abrupt, nonlinear transition. Crucially, we identify an asymmetric interdependence: Twitter sentiment reliably Granger-causes mainstream media sentiment, establishing its role as a leading indicator, and systematic asymmetries in thematic framing reflect the divergent logics of each platform. The study demonstrates that public discourse on contested, state-linked institutions operates as a complex adaptive system, where bottom-up affective reactions and top-down editorial processes continuously interact in a dynamic equilibrium, ultimately co-constructing a fragmented public understanding. Full article

Although greenhouse microclimates typically exhibit gradual and near-linear transitions, abrupt fluctuations in external weather conditions and actuator operations introduce nonlinear dynamics that complicate accurate interpretation and prediction. Predicting greenhouse microclimate is a key element for achieving stable and energy efficient crop production, particularly in strawberry greenhouse. However, existing greenhouse microclimate deterministic prediction models do not adequately reflect the nonlinear, time-varying characteristics of greenhouses and the inherent uncertainty in data, limiting probabilistic decision-making. In this study, we developed a probabilistic deep learning framework to estimate and interpret uncertainty while simultaneously predicting greenhouse microclimate quantitatively. The proposed one-dimensional convolutional neural network model learned the time-series characteristics of greenhouse internal and external environmental information and control data, predicting a total of nine parameters, including three-dimensional predicted values 3 h later and six-dimensional covariance elements. The model demonstrated high sharpness and calibration performance, with an average R² of 0.93, a negative log likelihood of 2.08, and a Coverage 90% of 0.901 for three microclimates. In addition, the estimated covariance matrix was used to interpret the time-varying correlations between microclimate variables, confirming local simultaneous variability not captured by global correlation analysis. These results suggest that the model in this study can provide greenhouse operators with explainable uncertainty interpretation and robust control decision support information. Full article

Self-oscillating systems convert steady external stimuli into sustained motion, enabling diverse applications in robotics, energy absorption, optics, and logic. Inspired by the adhesion–detachment behavior of climbing plants, we propose a novel light-powered self-adhesion oscillator comprising an elastic strip–substrate structure and a weight suspended by a photo-responsive liquid crystal elastomer fiber. By integrating a nonlinear beam deformation model with Dugdale’s cohesive model, we develop a nonlinear dynamic framework to describe the self-adhesion behavior of the elastic strip. Quasi-static analysis reveals two distinct operating modes: a static mode and a self-adhesion mode. Under constant light exposure, the liquid crystal elastomer fiber undergoes light-induced contraction, increasing peeling force and triggering a sudden transition from adhesion-on to adhesion-off. Upon entering the adhesion-off state, the fiber recovers its contraction, leading to a sharp return to the adhesion-on state. This cycle sustains a four-stage oscillation: gradual peeling, abrupt adhesion-off, gradual adhering, and abrupt adhesion-on. Furthermore, we identify the critical conditions for initiating self-adhesion and demonstrate effective control over the oscillation period. The system exhibits key advantages including amplitude controllable oscillation, widely tunable frequency, well-defined motion trajectories, and structural simplicity. These characteristics suggest promising potential for applications in self-healing adhesion systems, rescue devices, military engineering, and beyond. Full article

This study examines the influence of religious socialization on the crises of faith among Turkish youth in Türkiye. Drawing on qualitative interviews with 20 participants, it adopts a process-oriented approach, conceptualizing a crisis of faith not merely as an abrupt disruption but as a gradual process shaped by the complex and sometimes conflicting dynamics within religious socialization. Young individuals are not simply passive agents in the traditionally one-way transmission of faith; instead, they become more autonomous and dynamic as they encounter negative attitudes and behaviors, often leading to a crisis of faith. The analysis highlights the roles of authoritarian parenting, perceived inconsistencies in religious teachings, peer and social media influence, and gender inequalities within patriarchal contexts. The findings suggest that while religious socialization provides an initial framework for faith, it also poses challenges that prompt Turkish youth to re-evaluate or distance themselves critically from traditional religion. Full article

In July 2024, bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) was first detected in southern Belgium, marking the onset of a major epidemic wave. This study documents, for the first time in Belgium, the ability of BTV-3 to cross the placental barrier in cattle, causing abortions and congenital central nervous system malformations. Abortion cases from January to December 2024 were monitored through the national abortion protocol, which mandates reporting and laboratory investigation (i.e., the year of emergence and the three previous years as the baseline data set). Among 5,751 reported abortions, 903 foetuses were tested by PCR, revealing widespread BTV-3 circulation. The first malformed PCR-positive foetus was recorded in mid-August, four weeks after a sharp increase in abortion rates. Lesions such as hydranencephaly were confirmed in PCR-positive foetuses, with a malformation rate of 32.24% in affected herds from weeks 36 to 52 (i.e., 22 times higher than in previous years). Gestational stage analysis indicated that congenital lesions were most frequent following infection between 70 and 130 days of gestation. Based on the observed gross lesions and the timing of abortion, it was deduced that the earliest maternal infections likely occurred in February–March 2024, implying low-level winter BTV-3 circulation before the official detection of the epidemic wave. These findings highlight the epidemiological value of systematic abortion monitoring as an early warning system tool and highlight the inadequacy of relying solely on clinical surveillance in adult ruminants. The abrupt emergence of BTV-3 across the territory without a gradual spatial spread underscores the need for anticipatory control strategies. Strategic, multivalent vaccination campaigns and enhanced abortion surveillance are critical to mitigate similar reproductive and economic losses in future bluetongue outbreaks. Full article

To reveal the influence mechanism of shear creep behavior of the weak interlayer (carbonaceous mud shale) from a microscopic perspective, acoustic emission (AE) technology was introduced to conduct shear creep tests to capture micro-fracture acoustic signals and analyze the microscopic damage evolution laws. The results indicate that, as normal stress increased, shear creep strain decayed exponentially, while the steady state creep rate increased gradually. Additionally, the peak value and cumulative value of the AE ringing count rate also increased gradually. The AE b-value had a staged pattern of “fluctuation adjustment → stable increase → abrupt decline”. The sudden drop in the b-value could serve as a precursor feature of creep failure. The higher the normal stress, the earlier the sudden drop in b-value and the larger the Δb value. The damage variable was defined based on the AE ringing count rate, and a new creep damage model was constructed by combining fractional-order theory. The model can uniformly describe the creep damage law of carbonaceous mud shale under different normal stresses. The reliability of the model was verified through experimental data. The research results provide a theoretical basis for long-term stability analysis of mine slopes containing weak interlayers. Full article

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of runoff and its drivers is essential for water resources management in mid–high latitude basins. This study investigates runoff changes in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China, during 1980–2022 using the Budyko framework, combined with Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Pettitt tests, Hurst index, and wavelet analysis. Results indicate significant climatic shifts, with basin-wide warming, heterogeneous precipitation changes, and declining relative humidity, leading to intensified cold-season drying. Temperature and evapotranspiration showed strong persistence, while precipitation exhibited high variability and periodicities linked to ENSO and East Asian monsoon anomalies. Runoff increased significantly in the mainstream Songhua and Nenjiang basins, especially in autumn, with abrupt changes clustered between 2009 and 2015. The Second Songhua Basin displayed weaker variability, largely influenced by reservoir regulation and land-use change. Attribution analysis confirmed precipitation as a primary driver, with elasticity coefficients exceeding 3 in the Nenjiang Basin during some summers, indicating extreme sensitivity. Evapotranspiration suppressed runoff under high temperatures, while freeze–thaw processes and human interventions became critical in spring and autumn. The aridity index revealed persistent winter deficits and rising spring–autumn drying trends after 2000, posing risks for snowmelt runoff and baseflow sustainability. Overall, runoff evolution reflects a shift from gradual to threshold-triggered regime changes driven by both climate variability and human regulation. These findings provide a basis for adaptive, basin-specific water management and climate resilience strategies in Northeast China. Full article