Search Results (9,844)

A shallow quaternary sedimentary aquifer within the river alluvial deposits of eastern Uzbekistan is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite its essential role in supplying water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, the aquifer system remains poorly understood. This study employed a three-dimensional MODFLOW-based groundwater flow model to assess climate change impacts on water budget components under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2020–2099. Model calibration yielded RMSE values between 0.25 and 0.51 m, indicating satisfactory performance. Simulations revealed that lateral inflows from upstream and side-valley alluvial deposits contribute over 84% of total inflow, while direct recharge from precipitation (averaging 120 mm/year, 24.7% of annual rainfall) and riverbed leakage together account for only 11.4%. Recharge occurs predominantly from November to April, with no recharge from June to August. Under future scenarios, winter recharge may increase by up to 22.7%, while summer recharge could decline by up to 100%. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease by 7.3% to 58.3% compared to 2010–2020, indicating the aquifer’s vulnerability to prolonged dry periods. These findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and long-term monitoring to ensure sustainable groundwater use under changing climate conditions. Full article

Understanding alpine plants’ survival and reproduction is crucial for their conservation in climate change. Based on 423 valid distribution points, this study utilizes the MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitat and distribution dynamics of Leontopodium nanum under both current and future climate scenarios, while clarifying the key factors that influence its distribution. The primary ecological drivers of distribution are altitude (2886.08 m–5576.14 m) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (−6.60–1.55 °C). Currently, the suitable habitat area is approximately 520.28 × 10⁴ km², covering about 3.5% of the global land area, concentrated mainly in the Tibetan Plateau, with smaller regions across East and South Asia. Under future climate scenarios, low-emission (SSP126), suitable areas are projected to expand during the 2050s and 2070s. High-emission (SSP585), suitable areas may decrease by 50%, with a 66.07% reduction in highly suitable areas by the 2070s. The greatest losses are expected in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Regarding dynamic habitat changes, by the 2050s, newly suitable areas will account for 51.09% of the current habitat, while 68.26% of existing habitat will become unsuitable. By the 2070s, newly suitable areas will rise to 71.86% of the current total, but the loss of existing areas will exceed these gains, particularly under the high-emission scenario. The centroid of suitable habitats is expected to shift northward, with migration distances ranging from 23.94 km to 342.42 km. The most significant shift is anticipated under the SSP126 scenario by the 2070s. This study offers valuable insights into the distribution dynamics of L. nanum and other alpine species under the context of climate change. From a conservation perspective, it is recommended to prioritize the protection and restoration of vegetation in key habitat patches or potential migration corridors, restrict overgrazing and infrastructure development, and maintain genetic diversity and dispersal capacity through assisted migration and population genetic monitoring when necessary. These measures aim to provide a robust scientific foundation for the comprehensive conservation and sustainable management of the grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Full article

As global climate change accelerates, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become increasingly pronounced, posing significant challenges to urban energy balance, atmospheric processes, and public health. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale two CMIP6 scenarios—moderate forcing (SSP245) and high forcing (SSP585)—focusing on Zhengzhou, a rapidly urbanizing city in central China. High-resolution simulations captured fine-scale intra-urban temperature patterns and analyze the spatial and seasonal variations in UHI intensity in 2030 and 2060. The results demonstrated significant seasonal variations in UHI effects in Zhengzhou for both 2030 and 2060 under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, with the most pronounced warming in summer. Notably, under the SSP245 scenario, elevated autumn temperatures in suburban areas reduced the urban–rural temperature gradient, while intensified rural cooling during winter enhanced the UHI effect. These findings underscore the importance of integrating high-resolution climate modeling into urban planning and developing targeted adaptation strategies based on future UHI patterns to address climate challenges. Full article

Understanding the impacts of climate change on species’ geographic distributions is fundamental for biodiversity conservation and resource management. As a key plant group for ecological restoration and windbreak and sand fixation in arid and semi-arid ares in China’s Three Northern Regions (Northeast, North, and Northwest China), Caragana spp. exhibit distribution patterns whose regulatory mechanisms by environmental factors remain unclear, with a long-term lack of climatic explanations influencing their spatial distribution. This study integrated 2373 occurrence records of 44 Caragana species in China’s Three Northern Regions with four major environmental variable categories. Using the Biomod2 ensemble model, current and future climate scenario-based suitable habitats for Caragana spp. were predicted. This study innovatively combined quantitative analyses with Kira’s thermal indexes (warmth index, coldness index) and Wenduo Xu’s humidity index (HI) to elucidate species-specific relationships between distribution patterns and hydrothermal climatic constraints. The main results showed that (1) compared to other environmental factors, climate is the key factor affecting the distribution of Caragana spp. (2) The current distribution centroid of Caragana spp. is located in Alxa Left Banner, Inner Mongolia. In future scenarios, the majority of centroids will shift toward lower latitudes. (3) The suitable habitats for Caragana spp. will expand overall under future climate scenarios. High-stress scenarios exhibit greater spatial changes than low-stress scenarios. (4) Hydrothermal requirements varied significantly among species in China’s Three Northern Regions, and 44 Caragana species can be classified into five distinct types based on warmth index (WI) and humidity index (HI). The research findings will provide critical practical guidance for ecological initiatives such as the Three-North Shelterbelt Program and the restoration and management of degraded ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions under global climate change. Full article

This study investigates the foundational causes of unsustainability that obstruct efforts to address global challenges such as climate change, environmental degradation, water crises, and public health deterioration. Using qualitative research with in-depth expert interviews from education, environmental studies, and business, it finds that these global challenges, while visible on the surface, are deeply rooted in worldviews that shape human behavior, societal structures, and policies. Building on this insight, the thematic analysis manifests three interrelated systemic paradigms as the fundamental drivers of unsustainability: a crisis of wholeness, reflected in fragmented identities and collective disorientation; a disconnection from nature, shaped by human-centered perspectives; and the influence of dominant political-economic systems which prioritize growth logics over ecological and social concerns. These paradigms underlie both structural and cognitive barriers to systemic transformation, which influence the design and implementation of education for sustainability. By clarifying a body of knowledge and systemic paradigms regarding unsustainability, this paper calls for transformative education that promotes a holistic, value-based approach, eco-empathy, and critical thinking, aiming to equip future generations with the tools to challenge and transform unsustainable systems. Full article

Corydalis yanhusuo W. T. Wang, commonly known as Yanhusuo, is an important and rare medicinal plant resource in China. Its habitat integrity is facing severe challenges due to climate change and human activities. Establishing an integrative quality zoning system for this species is of significant practical importance for resource conservation and adaptive management. This study integrates multiple data sources, including 121 valid distribution points, 37 environmental factors, future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585 pathways for the 2050s and 2090s), and measured content of tetrahydropalmatine (THP) from 22 sampling sites. A predictive framework for habitat suitability and spatial distribution of effective components was constructed using a multi-model coupling approach (MaxEnt, ArcGIS spatial analysis, and co-kriging method). The results indicate that the MaxEnt model exhibits high prediction accuracy (AUC > 0.9), with the dominant environmental factors being the precipitation of the wettest quarter (404.8~654.5 mm) and the annual average temperature (11.8~17.4 °C). Under current climatic conditions, areas of high suitability are concentrated in parts of Central and Eastern China, including the Sichuan Basin, the middle–lower Yangtze plains, and coastal areas of Shandong and Liaoning. In future climate scenarios, the center of suitable areas is predicted to shift northwestward. The content of THP is significantly correlated with the mean diurnal temperature range, temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (p < 0.01). A comprehensive assessment identifies the Yangtze River Delta region, Central China, and parts of the Loess Plateau as the optimal integrative quality zones. This research provides a scientific basis and decision-making support for the sustainable utilization of C. yanhusuo and other rare medicinal plants in China. Full article

Global marine coastal aquaculture increased by 6.7 million tons in 2024, with whiteleg shrimp (Penaeus vannamei) dominating crustacean production. However, reliance on a single species raises sustainability concerns, particularly in the face of climate change. Diversifying shrimp farming by cultivating native species, such as the European brown shrimp (Crangon crangon), presents an opportunity to develop a sustainable blue bioeconomy in Europe. C. crangon holds significant commercial value, yet overexploitation has led to population declines. Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) offers a viable solution by utilizing fish farm wastewater as a nutrient source, reducing both costs and environmental impact. Research efforts in Germany and other European nations are exploring IMTA’s potential by co-culturing shrimp with species like sea bream, sea bass, and salmon. The physiological adaptability and omnivorous diet of C. crangon further support its viability in aquaculture. However, critical knowledge gaps remain regarding its lipid metabolism, early ontogeny, and reproductive biology—factors essential for optimizing captive breeding. Future interdisciplinary research should refine larval culture techniques and develop sustainable co-culture models. Expanding C. crangon aquaculture aligns with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals by enhancing food security, ecosystem resilience, and economic stability while reducing Europe’s reliance on seafood imports. Full article

Traditional Chinese villages, which have long supported villagers’ comfort level of daily activities, are increasingly affected by global climate change and rural reconstruction, prompting growing research interest in their outdoor microclimate design. This systematic review aims to synthesize and evaluate the outdoor microclimate spatial design mechanism studies in traditional Chinese villages noted for their uniqueness and complexity. Following the PRISMA method, this study was carried out on November 27, 2024, by retrieving studies from the Scopus and CNKI databases and applying predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria; 42 empirical studies were systematically reviewed. It identifies current research trends, summarizes concepts, frameworks, indicators, and methodologies with a focus on the design mechanisms considering scales, contexts, and user groups, and outlines directions for future research. The findings reveal a growing number of publications, with case studies predominantly concentrated on three concepts: physical microclimates, human comfort, and behavioral responses, characterized as distributed in south-east areas. Based on these concepts and their correlations, this study proposes a classification framework based on multiple scales, contexts, and user groups. Within this framework, the study found that relative humidity and PET (physiological equivalent temperature) emerge as the most commonly used indicators, while field measurements, simulations, surveys, and observations are identified as the primary methods. The review further reveals that unique outdoor spatial design characteristics shape physical microclimates, human comfort, and behavior indicators influenced by contexts and users from the macro to the micro scale. Future research should advance existing studies by enriching the current contextual framework and explore more microclimatic factors. This review offers a comprehensive overview and actionable insights for outdoor microclimate design, policymaking, and the promotion of climate adaptation and villagers’ public health in different traditional rural settings. Full article

To date, few studies have been published for cities in Germany that take into account climate change and changing hydrologic patterns due to increases in building density. This study investigates the efficiency of LID for past and future climate in the polycentric agglomeration area Frankfurt, Main (Central Germany) using observed and projected climate (model) data for a standard reference period (1961–1990) and a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) as well as a climate protection scenario (RCP 2.6), under 40 to 75 percent building density. LID elements included green roofs, permeable pavement and bioretention cells. SWMM₅ was used as model for simulation purposes. A holistic evaluation of simulation results showed that effectiveness increases incrementally with LID implementation percentage and inverse to building density if implemented onto at least 50 percent of available impervious area. Building density had a higher adverse effect on LID efficiency than climate change. The results contribute to the understanding of localized effects of climate change and the implementation of adaption strategies to that end. The results of this study can be helpful for the scientific community regarding future investigations of LID implementation efficiency in dense residential areas and used by local governments to provide suggestions for urban water balance revaluation. Full article

Purpose: Exercise is recommended for survivors of breast cancer to alleviate adverse reactions and reduce the psychological burden. In recent years, however, environmental factors (e.g., pandemics and climate change) have made it difficult to exercise outdoors. Therefore, this study focused on the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan and evaluated the relationship between changes in physical activity (PA) and mental and physical health in breast cancer survivors. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted among 345 outpatient female breast cancer survivors aged between 29 and 69 years. The questionnaire was based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire, and the Fear of COVID-19 Scale and included patient characteristics, changes in PA during pandemic restrictions, and needs for exercise support. The analysis categorized PA changes into two groups according to activity levels. The relationship between changes in PA and physical and mental health was evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Results: Patients with decreased PA accounted for 65.5% of the study population. Regardless of their activity level, these patients were aware of an increased susceptibility to COVID-19, showed a fear of the disease and a tendency for depression, and reported low life satisfaction and declined physical function. Of the patients who stopped exercising, 82.9% reported a decline in PA. Compared with those who had never exercised, those who stopped exercising saw their risk of depression increase by 15.6%. There was a high demand for personalized exercise support from healthcare professionals. Conclusions: Regardless of their activity level, decreasing PA during the pandemic decreased mental health and physical function in breast cancer survivors. There was a higher risk of depression among patients who stopped exercising. Because it is possible that similar situations may occur in the future, interventions by healthcare professionals must be considered in order to continue exercise. Full article

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and its underlying market structure play a central role in the EU’s climate policy. This study analyses how the network of trading relationships within the EU ETS has evolved from a hub-dominated architecture to one marked by structural change and the emergence of new trading dynamics. Using transaction data from Phases I–IV, we apply complex network analysis to assess changes in connectivity, centrality, and community structure. We then construct a Digital Twin of the EU ETS, integrating graph neural networks and logistic regression models to simulate the entry of new participants and predict future trading links. The results indicate shifts in network composition and connectivity, especially in Phase IV, where regulatory innovations and institutional mechanisms appear to play a key role. While our analysis focuses on structural dynamics, these patterns may have broader implications for market performance and policy effectiveness. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring the evolving trading network alongside price signals to support a resilient, efficient, and environmentally credible carbon market. Full article

The Arctic Ocean is turning blue. Abrupt Arctic warming and amplification is driving rapid sea ice decline and irreversible deglaciation of Greenland. The already emerging, substantial consequences for the planet and society are intensifying and yet, model-based projections lack validatory consensus. To date, we cannot anticipate how a blue Arctic will respond to and amplify an increasingly warmer future climate, nor how it will impact the wider planet and society. Climate projections are inconclusive as we critically lack key Arctic geological archives that preserved the answers. This “Arctic Challenge” of global significance can only be addressed by investigating the processes, consequences, and impacts of past “greenhouse” (warmer-than-present) climate states. To address this challenge, the ERC Synergy Grant project Into the Blue (i2B) is undertaking a program of research focused on retrieving new Arctic geological archives of past warmth and key breakthroughs in climate model performance to deliver a ground-breaking, synergistic framework to answer the central question: “Why and what were the global ramifications of a “blue” (ice-free) Arctic during past warmer-than-present climates?” Here, we present the proposed research plan that will be conducted as part of this program. Into the Blue will quantify cryosphere (sea ice and land ice) change in a warmer world that will form the scientific basis for understanding the dynamics of Arctic cryosphere and ocean changes to enable the quantitative assessment of the impact of Arctic change on ocean biosphere, climate extremes, and society that will underpin future cryosphere-inclusive IPCC assessments. Full article

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

Agriculture is the foundational industry for human survival, profoundly impacting economic, ecological, and social dimensions. In the face of global challenges such as rapid population growth, resource scarcity, and climate change, achieving technological innovation in agriculture and advancing smart farming have become increasingly critical. In recent years, deep learning and computer vision have developed rapidly. Key areas in computer vision—such as deep learning-based image processing, object detection, and multimodal fusion—are rapidly transforming traditional agricultural practices. Processes in agriculture, including planting planning, growth management, harvesting, and post-harvest handling, are shifting from experience-driven methods to digital and intelligent approaches. This paper systematically reviews applications of deep learning and computer vision in agricultural growth management over the past decade, categorizing them into four key areas: crop identification, grading and classification, disease monitoring, and weed detection. Additionally, we introduce classic methods and models in computer vision and deep learning, discussing approaches that utilize different types of visual information. Finally, we summarize current challenges and limitations of existing methods, providing insights for future research and promoting technological innovation in agriculture. Full article

The rubber industry is facing major socio-economic and environmental constraints. Rubber-based agroforestry systems represent a more sustainable solution through the diversification of income and the provision of greater ecosystem services than monoculture plantations. Participative approaches are known for their ability to co-construct solutions with stakeholders and to promote a positive impact on smallholders. This study therefore implemented a participatory research process with stakeholders in the natural rubber sector for the purpose of improving inclusion, relevance and impact. Facilitation training sessions were first organised with academic actors to prepare participatory workshops. A working group of stakeholder representatives was set up and participated in these workshops to share a common representation of the value chain and to identify problems and solutions for the sector in Indonesia. By fostering collective intelligence and systems thinking, the process is aimed at enabling the development of adaptive technical solutions and building capacity across the sector for future government replanting programmes. The resulting adaptive technical packages were then detailed and objectified by the academic consortium and are part of a participatory plant breeding approach adapted to the natural rubber industry. On-station and on-farm experimental plans have been set up to facilitate the drafting of projects for setting up field trials based on these outcomes. Research played a dual role as both knowledge provider and facilitator, guiding a co-learning process rooted in social inclusion, equity and ecological resilience. The initiative highlighted the potential of rubber cultivation to contribute to climate change mitigation and food sovereignty, provided that it can adapt through sustainable practices like agroforestry. Continued political and financial support is essential to sustain and scale these innovations. Full article