Search Results (6,259)

Background: price dynamics in financial markets exhibit scale-invariant volatility, quantized liquidity and collective behaviour that resist single-paradigm models; Multiscale Relativistic Quantum Finance (MRQF) reconciles these facets on an energy–entropy $(E,S)$ plane, but its translation into a deployable decision system has remained open. Methods: we propose MRQF-MAS, a cooperative multi-agent system (MAS) in which institutional, commercial and retail operators become first-class agents, each decomposed into signal, energy, entropy, risk and execution sub-agents that share beliefs through a horizontal cooperation layer and a shared knowledge base (SKB) of $(E,S)$ trajectories. The framework is benchmarked as a high-volatility regime classifier on 6978 daily EUR/USD reference rates published by the European Central Bank (ECB) over 1999–2026 against four baselines including Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH)(1,1). Results: on the full official ECB EUR/USD series, MRQF-MAS attains 83.0% accuracy, precision 0.552 and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) 0.479 with 95% bootstrap CI [0.46, 0.51] and a one-day median detection latency, improving slightly on a rolling-volatility baseline while remaining below a GARCH(1,1) reference. Conclusions: MRQF-MAS delivers a structurally interpretable, agent-traceable regime decomposition complementary to scalar volatility estimators. Full article

We re-conceptualize corporate debt default risk (EDF) as an emergent state variable of a coupled financial system and ask how capital-market opening reshapes its equilibrium. Extending the structural credit-risk framework with three interacting subsystem channels—external financing, investment efficiency, and information disclosure—we derive a closed-form result showing that an exogenous increase in liberalization strictly reduces the system-level corporate debt default probability through three complementary channels. We then exploit the staggered roll-out of China’s Shanghai–Hong Kong and Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect (HSGT) programs as a quasi-natural experiment on a panel of 21,351 firm-year observations over 2011–2023. A difference-in-differences (DID) estimator confirms a significant stabilizing effect on the firm’s market-implied default probability that is robust to an extensive battery of identification and specification checks; mechanism regressions confirm all three model-implied channels. The stabilizing effect is further amplified in firms facing greater environmental uncertainty and greater customer concentration—precisely the regimes in which our model predicts the underlying subsystem coupling to be most fragile. Our findings recast capital-market opening as a system-level intervention that simultaneously re-balances financing, investment, and information subsystems of the financial system, with implications for financial-stability policy in emerging economies. Full article

Against the background of China’s “dual carbon” goals and the continued advancement of the green and low-carbon transformation of resource-based industries, resource-based enterprises urgently need to rely on green innovation to overcome development constraints characterized by high resource dependence, strong environmental pressures, and mounting transformation challenges. Patient capital, with its long-term orientation, stable support, and risk-sharing characteristics, can provide sustained financial backing and governance support for green innovation in resource-based enterprises; however, its underlying mechanism remains to be further explored. Drawing on patient capital theory, this study constructs a “capital–ESG–innovation” analytical framework to examine the impact of patient capital on green innovation in resource-based enterprises and its mechanism of action. Using Chinese A-share listed resource-based enterprises from 2014 to 2023 as the research sample, this study measures patient capital from two dimensions, namely stable equity and relational debt, and conducts empirical analysis through panel regression and multiple robustness tests. The results show that patient capital significantly promotes green innovation in resource-based enterprises, with both relational debt and stable equity playing positive roles. Mechanism tests reveal that ESG performance serves as an important mediating channel through which patient capital promotes green innovation. Further analysis indicates that the level of regional marketization strengthens the green innovation effect of patient capital, and this effect is more pronounced in large enterprises, enterprises subject to stronger media supervision, and enterprises whose executives have higher green cognition. This study enriches the literature on the relationship between patient capital and green innovation and provides empirical evidence for cultivating long-term capital and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of resource-based enterprises. Full article

Carbon pricing is central to China’s low-carbon transition, and its effectiveness is tied to the carbon market’s links with commodities. This paper examines state-dependent return connectedness between China’s national carbon emission allowance (CEA) market and 20 representative commodity futures. Using daily data from July 2021 to February 2026, we combined quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) connectedness, the Baruník–Křehlík frequency decomposition, and wavelet-based coherence and quantile-based correlation methods to characterize return transmission across market states and frequencies. We obtained four findings. First, total connectedness is almost identical at the lower and upper tails (around 92%) and far higher than at the median (around 59%)—tail symmetry with median heterogeneity—and is dominated by the short-term band. Second, the CEA is largely decoupled from the commodity system under normal conditions and is drawn in only at the tails as a net receiver. Third, the two tails exhibit distinct event contexts, with downside episodes associated with external financial shocks and upside episodes associated with domestic policy expectations. Fourth, the CEA tends to precede high-emission commodities at long horizons. These results suggest that institutional and policy factors continue to play an important role in shaping CEA price dynamics, with implications for carbon market regulation and cross-market hedging. Full article

The post-COVID-19 tourism recovery exposes a structural divergence between economic resilience and environmental sustainability. Traditional tourism planning metrics consistently fail to diagnose how macroeconomic growth dynamics decouple from environmental pressures, leaving policymakers without empirical tools to identify structural vulnerabilities or prevent carbon-intensive recoupling during post-crisis transitions. This study integrates macroeconomic, environmental, and digital data across a global panel to map actionable pathways for sustainable tourism transitions. Employing a multi-stage methodology, the analysis first utilizes K-Means clustering (n = 80) to isolate the structural fixed effects of baseline destination archetypes driving a K-shaped recovery. Second, using a synchronized environmental panel (n = 41), a Decoupling Index evaluates eco-efficiency elasticity to test the alignment between tourism value recovery and aviation-induced CO₂ emissions. Third, regression analysis of an elite digital cohort (n = 18) measures dynamic exogenous catalysts, revealing that digital attractiveness, proxied by the global digital nomad market share, is a significantly stronger accelerator of recovery (β = 55.59, p = 0.019) than traditional physical air connectivity (β = −46.48, p = 0.036). Synthesizing these insights, a 2 × 2 Strategic Decision Matrix (n = 41) classifies destinations into Sustainable Leaders, Mass-Market Traps, Value Pivoters, and Vulnerable Laggards. The empirical results demonstrate that pre-pandemic structures do not deterministically dictate recovery (p > 0.05, Partial η² ≤ 0.077), yet rapid financial recovery often masks deep atmospheric vulnerabilities, with specific absolute decoupling leaders achieving exceptional value expansion alongside strict carbon contraction (e.g., Saudi Arabia, DE = −0.35; El Salvador, DE = −0.26). This framework provides a data-driven roadmap for policymakers to utilize “soft” digital infrastructure to transition from carbon-intensive, volume-dependent models toward value-optimized, low-emission ecosystems. Full article

Under the background of the steady advancement of the dual-carbon goal and the increasing improvement of the green financial system, green supply chain finance is like a bridge that closely links the capital of the financial market and the low-carbon transformation of the real economy. The following article chooses A-shares traded enterprises from 2014 to 2024 as the study sample, adopts multi-dimensional empirical methods to study the association in green supply chain finance along with corporate emission levels, and analyzes its transmission mechanisms and heterogeneity. The findings demonstrate that green supply chain finance has a substantial inhibitory impact with enterprise emission levels, a finding that remains robust across a series of tests, including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and propensity score matching (PSM). Mechanism analysis demonstrates that green supply chain finance can indirectly reduce carbon emission intensity by improving both financing levels and supply chain stability. Looking at heterogeneity, we find that the emission-reducing effect tends to be stronger among state-owned firms, non-heavy polluters, enterprises with higher total factor productivity, and enterprises that are more financially oriented. Our theoretical value lies in clarifying the direct relationship between green supply chain finance and micro-enterprise carbon emissions, identifying two differentiated intermediary transmission paths, and defining the boundary conditions of the policy role across multiple dimensions, thereby better coordinating and promoting the digital and low-carbon transformation of enterprises. Full article

Marine ecosystem degradation may reduce state revenues, increase recovery spending, and weaken fiscal sustainability, yet Indonesia does not yet have a routine governance mechanism that links marine natural capital valuation to fiscal-risk assessment in the State Budget Financial Note. This article develops a governance design, Blue Natural Capital Value at Risk (BNC-VaR), to translate changes in marine ecosystem conditions into fiscal-exposure signals for Indonesian public finance. Ecological condition indicators, such as fish-stock status, coral-reef condition, and mangrove extent, are converted into traceable valuation parameters and then into structured outputs, including fiscal-exposure scenarios, budget-relevance notes, and medium-term fiscal-sustainability readings across revenue, expenditure, deficit, and financing channels. The design treats ecological change as affecting the fiscal position through mediated and disclosable pathways rather than automatic causal effects. It adapts Value at Risk as a risk logic for public fiscal governance rather than as a conventional market-based probabilistic measure. Using theory synthesis and a model-paper approach across six analytical stages, the study produces five design principles, four formal propositions, and a five-component institutional architecture, with the Directorate General of State Assets Management positioned as a valuation custodian. As a conceptual contribution, BNC-VaR offers an operational architecture and implementation roadmap for future empirical testing in Indonesia and other archipelagic or marine-resource-dependent fiscal systems. Full article

This study examines whether stablecoin and Bitcoin transaction volumes in Brazil are associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. Using monthly data from August 2019 to December 2025, the analysis compares the association of domestic economic activity, proxied by the IBCBr, and the BRLUSD exchange rate with the transaction volumes of stablecoins and Bitcoin reported in the open data records of the Receita Federal do Brasil, the Brazilian Tax Administration. The empirical strategy distinguishes between long-run relationships in log levels and short-run dynamics in log differences, applies Johansen cointegration and ARDL bounds testing, and estimates an error correction model for stablecoins. Global crypto market controls are used as complementary measures to assess the contrast between the two assets. The results show that stablecoin transaction volume is positively and significantly associated with Brazilian economic activity in both long-run and short-run specifications and that this association is not explained by global stablecoin activity. The exchange rate is associated with stablecoin volume mainly through a structural long-run channel rather than immediate monthly effects. In contrast, Bitcoin transaction volume does not exhibit a robust association with domestic economic activity and is instead more strongly associated with global Bitcoin volume. The findings suggest that stablecoins may act as a domestically embedded macro-financial instrument in Brazil. This finding reflects transactional demand, liquidity management, or demand for dollar-linked assets, whereas Bitcoin behaves as a more globally oriented and comparatively detached digital asset. This distinction has important implications for policy, as stablecoins may have stronger implications for monetary transmission, digital dollarisation, and financial intermediation than Bitcoin-focused analyses indicate. Full article

Nickel has become a strategic mineral for the energy transition, yet its supply chain is increasingly shaped by a compound risk regime involving resource nationalism, processing concentration, geopolitical compliance rules, carbon-footprint requirements, and commodity-market volatility. This study develops NiChain-LLM-ABM, a large-language-model-empowered agent-based model for simulating nickel supply chain resilience under semantically rich policy shocks. The framework uses a policy semantic parsing module to transform official policy texts into structured shock parameters, a multi-agent strategy generation module to represent adaptive decisions by seven agent classes, a calibrated supply chain network module to simulate material, financial, and information flows, and a four-dimensional resilience assessment module. The model is anchored in observed nickel production, price, trade, and technology data from USGS, IEA, UN Comtrade, LME, and official legal sources, and its scenario outputs are generated through 100 Monte Carlo replications over 2025–2035. Results show that the baseline Comprehensive Resilience Index (CRI) declines from 0.620 in 2025 to 0.547 in 2035. Indonesian policy tightening causes the sharpest near-term deterioration, with CRI falling to 0.445 in 2028 and the simulated supply deficit reaching 24.5 kt Ni equivalent. A geopolitical compliance shock produces the lowest terminal resilience (CRI = 0.472 in 2035). A green-compliance scenario is disruptive in the short run but exceeds the baseline by 2035, while a coordinated policy portfolio raises the terminal CRI to 0.744, a 36.0% improvement over the baseline. Compared with a conventional rule-based ABM, the LLM-ABM reduces extreme-event backcasting error by 57%, improves policy-response fidelity by 53%, and more than doubles agent heterogeneity differentiation. The results support portfolio-based critical-mineral governance combining strategic reserves, overseas equity investment, recycling, technology substitution, and international cooperation. Full article

This study examines the impact of corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices on corporate stock prices, with a particular focus on the mediating role of board gender diversity (BGD). Using a dataset of 9543 firm-year observations from non-financial companies across 15 countries in the S&P 1200 global index between 2012 and 2020, the analysis evaluates ESG performance through the Refinitiv ESG Combined Score, which incorporates disclosures across ESG pillars and an overlay for ESG controversies. BGD is measured as the proportion of female directors on corporate boards, while stock prices are assessed using annual closing prices. The findings reveal a positive relationship between ESG performance and corporate stock prices, both at the aggregate level and across individual ESG pillars. Additionally, BGD is shown to enhance stock price performance and serves as a mediator in the ESG-stock price relationship. These results highlight the critical role of board diversity in amplifying the financial benefits of ESG practices. Further analysis suggests that the value relevance of ESG performance varies across institutional settings, with stronger effects observed in emerging/offshore markets and in the North American and European regions. The study offers important implications for companies, investors, and policymakers, emphasizing the need to integrate ESG strategies and promote gender diversity at the board level to enhance corporate valuation and long-term sustainability. Full article

This study provides a structured operational-to-financial roadmap for soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in mineral soils as a specific carbon-farming pathway. It integrates SOC management; Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) execution; financial recognition; and farmer adoption barriers. A comparison of carbon farming pathways is first presented to investigate their strengths and limitations, highlighting the specific importance of SOC management in mineral soils. For high-integrity carbon accounting, SOC gains should be assessed not only for quantity, but also for additionality, permanence, uncertainty, leakage, lifecycle emissions, and transparent verification. Credible MRV frameworks operationalize this logic: monitoring quantifies SOC changes, reporting ensures transparency, and verification provides independent assurance for carbon credit issuance and financial recognition. However, MRV execution faces several challenges, including high spatial variability of SOC, slow accumulation rates, methodological uncertainty, and high costs that limit scalability and reduce trust among stakeholders. Financial incentives are available from both public and private sources, supporting long-term soil carbon stabilization, verified carbon removals, and corporate insetting projects. Yet, adoption remains constrained by uncertain payments, poor transparency, contract and permanence concerns, as well as learning and operational costs for farmers. Addressing these bottlenecks is essential for transforming mineral-soil SOC sequestration into a scalable, high-integrity climate and economic opportunity. Full article

We examine the measurement of country-level institutions in international accounting research. Despite a large body of literature linking national institutions to financial reporting outcomes, the construct validity and reliability of the institutional measures used in cross-country studies have rarely been assessed. We show that widely cited measures of investor protection, legal quality, and equity market development have been adopted without validity or reliability assessment and used inconsistently across published studies, with the same indicator labelled as a measure of different constructs in different papers. Using forty-eight candidate indicators from six international databases for seventy countries, we conduct an exploratory factor analysis followed by a confirmatory factor analysis and identify three latent constructs that pass conventional thresholds for convergent reliability and discriminant validity. The constructs are empirically distinct, indicating that measures routinely treated as interchangeable in published work measure different latent dimensions. We offer a validated three-factor measurement model that researchers can use to operationalise country-level institutions in future cross-country studies and discuss the implications for the interpretation of existing studies. Full article

This study investigates whether the March 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) coincided with changes in market-risk exposure, abnormal returns, and return connectedness among five major Chinese financial institutions. Using daily data from January 2022 to December 2023, we apply CAPM and market-model regressions, structural-break tests, event-study methods, and generalized forecast-error variance decompositions. The revised design distinguishes 10 March from the first subsequent Chinese trading day, 13 March, and adds symmetric event windows, placebo tests, an alternative risk-free rate, return-series audits, significance tests, and VAR diagnostics. Full-sample Chow tests identify breaks for ICBC and CITIC Securities, but only ICBC remains significant within the ±60-day window, and none are significant within ±30 days. Only ICBC records a significant positive CAR over [−3, +3]. Overall connectedness falls from 55.53% to 47.98%, while CITIC Securities becomes the largest post-event net transmitter. The evidence therefore indicates selective repricing and reconfigured linkages rather than a system-wide effect, and does not support unique causal attribution to SVB. Full article

This study investigates the long-run and short-run relationships between capital market development, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and real GDP per capita in Romania over 2003–2024, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach, complemented by lag-augmented VAR Granger-causality analysis and a comprehensive set of diagnostic and stability tests. The bounds tests strongly reject the null of no cointegration, confirming a long-run relationship that remains robust under finite-sample critical values. The causality analysis demonstrates a supply-leading mechanism from the equity market to real economic activity, while economic growth in turn Granger-causes both market liquidity and trade openness, pointing to demand-following dynamics for these channels. The analysis shows that foreign direct investment, market liquidity, and trade openness exert positive and significant short-run effects; yet their long-run coefficients are negative, significantly for FDI (foreign direct investments), capturing an asymmetry between immediate output gains and durable structural contribution that is characteristic of emerging European economies. The error-correction term is positive, demonstrating that real GDP (gross domestic product) per capita does not adjust back toward the long-run relationship in the conventional sense, but, instead, it behaves as a forcing variable that leads the financial and trade channels rather than being led by them. All in all, the findings describe an economy with functional short-run transmission channels, but limited long-run structural anchoring, with direct relevance for Sustainable Development Goals 8 and 17 and Romania’s ongoing OECD accession. Full article

This paper examines how Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the construction industry approach Building Information Modeling (BIM) adoption in a context marked by slow uptake and market fragmentation, with reflections on the Portuguese context. BIM is internationally recognized as a technology that can improve project coordination, productivity, and information management, but its level and patterns of use vary widely. Based on a structured exploratory literature review and an interpretive scoring framework, this paper identifies challenges and enabling factors associated with BIM adoption in SMEs. The findings suggest that BIM adoption should not be understood as a simple technological change; rather, it can be interpreted as a complex socio-technical process shaped by interdependence among technical, financial, organizational, and human dimensions. This study conceptualizes fragmentation in the construction industry as a reinforcing condition that may amplify barriers and help explain why many implementation approaches have limited effectiveness. Given this context, SME progression may require incremental, context-adapted approaches based on collaboration, information management, and capacity-building initiatives. This article contributes an exploratory conceptual framework for understanding BIM adoption in economically constrained and difficult-to-transform environments. It provides a basis for future empirical studies and SME-oriented strategies, including potential applications within the Portuguese construction sector. Full article