Search Results (659)

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article

This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to explore their unique cyclical and macroeconomic sensitivities. This study looks at the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in relation to more general REIT indexes and the S&P 500 Index. The study reveals that monthly returns of Hospitality REITs increasingly move in tandem with the stock markets during financial crises, which reduces their historical function as portfolio diversifiers. Investing in Hospitality REITs exposes one to the hospitality sector; however, these investments carry notable risks and provide little protection, particularly during economic upheavals. Furthermore, the study reveals that Hospitality REITs underperform on a risk-adjusted basis relative to benchmark indexes. The monthly returns of REITs show significant volatility during the post-COVID-19 era, which causes return-to-risk ratios to be below those of benchmark indexes. Estimates from multi-factor models indicate negative alpha values across conditional models, indicating that macroeconomic variables cause unremunerated risks. This industry shows great sensitivity to market beta and size and value determinants. Hospitality REITs’ susceptibility comes from their showing the most possibility for exceptional losses across asset classes under Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CvaR) downside risk assessments. The findings have implications for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that Hospitality REITs may not offer consistent diversification benefits during downturns but can serve a tactical role in procyclical investment strategies. Full article

Despite growing recognition of the role that social determinants of health (SDOHs) and health-related social needs (HRSNs) play in chronic disease, limited research has examined their associations with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in population-based studies. This cross-sectional study analyzed 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 37 U.S. states and territories to determine how financial hardship, food insecurity, employment loss, healthcare access barriers, and psychosocial stressors influence the prevalence of COPD. Weighted logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between COPD and specific SDOHs and HRSNs. Several individual SDOH and HRSN factors were significantly associated with COPD prevalence, with financial strain emerging as a particularly strong predictor. In models examining specific SDOH factors, economic hardships like inability to afford medical care were strongly linked to higher COPD odds. Psychosocial HRSN risks, such as experiencing mental stress, also showed moderate associations with increased COPD prevalence. These findings suggest that addressing both structural and individual-level social risks may be critical for reducing the prevalence of COPD in populations experiencing financial challenges. Full article

Dark skies, a vital natural and cultural resource, have been increasingly threatened by light pollution due to rapid urbanization, leading to ecological degradation and biodiversity loss. As a key strategy for sustainable regional development, dark sky parks (DSPs) not only preserve nocturnal environments but also enhance livability by balancing urban expansion and ecological conservation. This study develops a novel framework for evaluating DSP suitability, integrating ecological and socio-economic dimensions, including the resource base (e.g., nighttime light levels, meteorological conditions, and air quality) and development conditions (e.g., population density, transportation accessibility, and tourism infrastructure). Using the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as a case study, we employ Delphi expert consultation, GIS spatial analysis, and multi-criteria decision-making to identify optimal DSP locations and prioritize conservation zones. Our key findings reveal the following: (1) spatial heterogeneity in suitability, with high-potential zones being concentrated in the GBA’s northeastern, central–western, and southern regions; (2) ecosystem advantages of forests, wetlands, and high-elevation areas for minimizing light pollution; (3) coastal and island regions as ideal DSP sites due to the low light interference and high ecotourism potential. By bridging environmental assessments and spatial planning, this study provides a replicable model for DSP site selection, offering policymakers actionable insights to integrate dark sky preservation into sustainable urban–regional development strategies. Our results underscore the importance of DSPs in fostering ecological resilience, nighttime tourism, and regional livability, contributing to the broader discourse on sustainable landscape planning in high-urbanization contexts. Full article

The efficiency decline of Francis turbines, a key component of hydroelectric power generation, presents a multifaceted challenge influenced by interconnected factors such as water quality, incidence angle, erosion, and runner wear. This paper is structured into two main sections to address these issues. The first section applies the Buckingham π theorem to establish a dimensional analysis (DA) framework, providing insights into the relationships among the operational variables and their impact on turbine wear and efficiency loss. Dimensional analysis offers a theoretical basis for understanding the relationships among operational variables and efficiency within the scope of this study. This understanding, in turn, informs the selection and interpretation of features for machine learning (ML) models aimed at the predictive maintenance of the target variable and important features for the next stage. The second section analyzes an extensive dataset collected from a Francis turbine in Colombia, a country that is heavily reliant on hydroelectric power. The dataset consisted of 60,501 samples recorded over 15 days, offering a robust basis for assessing turbine behavior under real-world operating conditions. An exploratory data analysis (EDA) was conducted by integrating linear regression and a time-series analysis to investigate efficiency dynamics. Key variables, including power output, water flow rate, and operational time, were extracted and analyzed to identify patterns and correlations affecting turbine performance. This study seeks to develop a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving Francis turbine efficiency loss and to propose strategies for mitigating wear-induced performance degradation. The synergy lies in DA’s ability to reduce dimensionality and identify meaningful features, which enhances the ML models’ interpretability, while ML leverages these features to model non-linear and time-dependent patterns that DA alone cannot address. This integrated approach results in a linear regression model with a performance (R²-Test = 0.994) and a time series using ARIMA with a performance (R²-Test = 0.999) that allows for the identification of better generalization, demonstrating the power of combining physical principles with advanced data analysis. The preliminary findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interplay of operational parameters, contributing to the optimization of turbine operation, efficiency enhancement, and lifespan extension. Ultimately, this study supports the sustainability and economic viability of hydroelectric power generation by advancing tools for predictive maintenance and performance optimization. Full article

Accurate estimation of available rooftop areas for PV power generation at the city scale is critical for sustainable energy planning and policy development. In this study, using publicly available high-resolution satellite imagery, rooftop solar energy potential in urban, rural, and industrial areas is estimated using deep learning models. In order to identify roof areas, high-resolution open-source images were manually labeled, and the training dataset was trained with DeepLabv3+ architecture. The developed model performed roof area detection with high accuracy. Model outputs are integrated with a user-friendly interface for economic analysis such as cost, profitability, and amortization period. This interface automatically detects roof regions in the bird’s-eye -view images uploaded by users, calculates the total roof area, and classifies according to the potential of the area. The system, which is applied in 81 provinces of Turkey, provides sustainable energy projections such as PV installed capacity, installation cost, annual energy production, energy sales revenue, and amortization period depending on the panel type and region selection. This integrated system consists of a deep learning model that can extract the rooftop area with high accuracy and a user interface that automatically calculates all parameters related to PV installation for energy users. The results show that the DeepLabv3+ architecture and the Adam optimization algorithm provide superior performance in roof area estimation with accuracy between 67.21% and 99.27% and loss rates between 0.6% and 0.025%. Tests on 100 different regions yielded a maximum roof estimation accuracy IoU of 84.84% and an average of 77.11%. In the economic analysis, the amortization period reaches the lowest value of 4.5 years in high-density roof regions where polycrystalline panels are used, while this period increases up to 7.8 years for thin-film panels. In conclusion, this study presents an interactive user interface integrated with a deep learning model capable of high-accuracy rooftop area detection, enabling the assessment of sustainable PV energy potential at the city scale and easy economic analysis. This approach is a valuable tool for planning and decision support systems in the integration of renewable energy sources. Full article

In October 2024, a DANA (Isolated Depression at High Levels) triggered torrential rains across the Valencian Community, causing 227 deaths, severe infrastructure damage, and economic losses estimated at €17.8 billion. In this context of crisis, startups, despite having fewer resources and less experience than large corporations, played a significant role in crisis communication, shaping public perception and operational continuity. This study explores the communication strategies adopted by startups during and after the disaster, focusing on their activity on Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook between October 2024 and January 2025. Using a mixed-methods approach, we conducted a quantitative analysis of digital discourse through the Fanpage Karma tool, assessing metrics such as engagement, reach, and posting frequency. Sentiment analysis was performed using GPT-4, an advanced natural language processing model, and in-depth interviews with startup representatives provided qualitative insights into reputational impacts. The findings reveal that startups which aligned their discourse with the social context, prioritizing transparency and emotional proximity, enhanced their visibility and credibility. These results underscore how effective crisis communication not only mitigates reputational risk but also strengthens the local entrepreneurial ecosystem through trust-building and social responsibility. Full article

Hydrogen is being increasingly integrated into the international trade system as a clean and flexible energy carrier, motivated by the global energy transition and carbon neutrality objectives. The rapid expansion of the global hydrogen trade network has simultaneously exposed several sustainability challenges, including a centralized structure, overdependence on key countries, and limited resilience to external disruptions. Based on this, we develop a risk propagation model that incorporates the absorption capacity of nodes to simulate the propagation of supply shortage risks within the global hydrogen trade network. Furthermore, we propose a composite sustainability index constructed from structural, economic, and environmental resilience indicators, enabling a systematic assessment of the network’s sustainable development capacity under external shock scenarios. Findings indicate the following: (1) The global hydrogen trade network is undergoing a structural shift from a Western Europe-dominated unipolar configuration to a more polycentric pattern. Countries such as China and Singapore are emerging as key hubs linking Eurasian regions, with trade relationships among nations becoming increasingly dense and diversified. (2) Although supply shortage shocks trigger structural disturbances, economic losses, and risks of carbon rebound, their impacts are largely concentrated in a limited number of hub countries, with relatively limited disruption to the overall sustainability of the system. (3) Countries exhibit significant heterogeneity in structural, economic, and environmental resilience. Risk propagation demonstrates an uneven pattern characterized by hub-induced disruptions, chain-like transmission, and localized clustering. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed, including the establishment of a polycentric coordination mechanism, the enhancement of regional emergency coordination mechanisms, and the advancement of differentiated capacity-building efforts. Full article

Modeling mainshock–aftershock ground motions is essential for seismic risk assessment, especially in regions experiencing frequent earthquakes. Recent studies have often employed Copula-based joint distributions or machine learning techniques to simulate the statistical dependency between mainshock and aftershock parameters. While effective at capturing nonlinear correlations, these methods are typically black box in nature, data-dependent, and difficult to generalize across tectonic settings. More importantly, they tend to focus solely on marginal or joint parameter correlations, which implicitly treat mainshocks and aftershocks as independent stochastic processes, thereby overlooking their inherent spectral interaction. To address these limitations, this study proposes an explicit and parameterized modeling framework based on the evolutionary power spectral density (EPSD) of random ground motions. Using the magnitude difference between a mainshock and an aftershock as the control variable, we derive attenuation relationships for the amplitude, frequency content, and duration. A coherence function model is further developed from real seismic records, treating the mainshock–aftershock pair as a vector-valued stochastic process and thus enabling a more accurate representation of their spectral dependence. Coherence analysis shows that the function remains relatively stable between 0.3 and 0.6 across the 0–30 Rad/s frequency range. Validation results indicate that the simulated response spectra align closely with recorded spectra, achieving R² values exceeding 0.90 and 0.91. To demonstrate the model’s applicability, a case study is conducted on a representative frame structure to evaluate seismic vulnerability and economic loss. As the mainshock PGA increases from 0.2 g to 1.2 g, the structure progresses from slight damage to complete collapse, with loss rates saturating near 1.0 g. These findings underscore the engineering importance of incorporating mainshock–aftershock spectral interaction in seismic damage and risk modeling, offering a transparent and transferable tool for future seismic resilience assessments. Full article

Obesity is a global epidemic with substantial health and economic impacts, making scalable weight management strategies essential. A comprehensive synthesis of eHealth interventions for weight management is needed to guide clinical practice. This umbrella review evaluated mobile and web-based interventions for weight loss in adults with overweight or obesity, compared to conventional or non-intervention controls. Systematic reviews were identified across five electronic databases from inception to February 2025. Two reviewers independently selected studies and assessed methodological quality using AMSTAR 2. Pooled estimates were calculated using random-effects models. Eleven systematic reviews (261 primary studies, 62,407 participants) were included. Mobile app interventions yielded a significant reduction in body weight (MD = −1.32 kg; I² = 82%), as did long-term eHealth interventions (MD = −1.13 kg; I² = 76%). Most meta-analyses showed high heterogeneity. Web-based interventions showed no significant effect. In conclusion, mobile apps and long-term eHealth interventions resulted in modest but statistically significant reductions in body weight, body mass index, and waist circumference. The evidence for web-based approaches remains inconclusive. Further research should focus on low-resource settings, primary care, and the integration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. (PROSPERO CRD42025644218). Full article

Quality and mechanical resilience are crucial for reducing losses in fruit production and for supporting food chains. Indeed, integrating empirical data with rheological models bridges gaps in fruit processing equipment design. Therefore, the objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between the mechanical and physical properties of seven economically important fruits—nectarine, kiwi, cherry, apple, peach, pear, and apricot—to assess their mechanical behavior and post-harvest quality. Standardized compression, creep, and puncture tests were conducted to establish mechanical parameters, such as rupture force, elasticity, and deformation energy. Physical characteristics including size, weight, density, and moisture content were also measured. The results indicated significant differences among the various categories of fruits; apples and pears were most suitable for mechanical harvesting and long storage periods, whereas cherries and apricots were least resistant and susceptible to injury. Correlations were high among the physical measurements, tissue firmness, and viscoelastic properties, thereby confirming structural properties’ contribution in influencing fruit quality and handling efficiency. The originality of this research is in its holistic examination of physical and mechanical properties under standardized testing conditions, thus offering an integrated framework for enhancing post-harvest operations. These findings offer practical insights for optimizing harvesting, packaging, transportation, and quality monitoring strategies based on fruit-specific mechanical profiles. Full article

Corrosion can accelerate the deterioration of the mechanical properties of steel structures. However, few studies have systematically evaluated its impact on seismic performance, particularly with respect to seismic economic losses. In this paper, the seismic fragility and loss assessment of a multi-story steel frame with viscous dampers (SFVD) building are investigated through experimental and numerical analysis. Based on corrosion and tensile test results, OpenSees software 3.3.0 was used to model the SFVD, and the effect of corrosion on the seismic fragility was evaluated via incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). Then, the economic losses of the SFVD during different seismic intensities were assessed at various corrosion times based on fragility analysis. The results show that as the corrosion time increases, the mass and cross-section loss rate of steel increase, causing a decrease in mechanical property indices, and theprobability of exceedance of the SFVD in the limit state increases gradually with increasing corrosion time, with an especially significant impact on the collapse prevention (CP) state. Furthermore, the economic loss assessment based on fragility curves indicates that the economic loss increases with corrosion time. Thus, the aim of this paper is to provide guidance for the seismic design and risk management of steel frame buildings in coastal regions throughout their life cycle. Full article

Necrotic enteritis, caused by Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) is a disease present worldwide and causes major economic losses. The re-emergence of the disease, in recent years, is mainly due to the ban of the usage of antibiotics as growth promoters in the EU. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable, robust challenge model. Ross hybrid broilers were divided into randomized groups: a positive and a negative control group, a group receiving antibiotic treatment and three groups fed with assorted feed supplements, all receiving the same basal diet. The birds in the treatment groups were vaccinated twice using a 10-times dose of an Infectious Bursitis live vaccine and the animals were challenged four times with a NetB toxin producing C. perfringens strain. The presence of clinical signs and body weight gain were monitored. At the end of the study necropsy was performed and the gut lesions were scored. During the experiment, clinical signs were absent in the negative control group and in the antibiotic treated group. The other animals displayed diarrhea and feather loss. These symptoms were the most pronounced in the positive control group. The gut lesion scores showed significant differences between the negative and positive control groups, with the former scoring the lowest. Based on these results, the challenge model establishment was successful and in this setup the assessment of the potency of feed additives is also possible. Full article

X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD) is an inherited metabolic disorder that can cause adrenal insufficiency and cerebral ALD (cALD) in childhood. Early detection prevents adverse health outcomes and can be achieved by newborn screening (NBS) followed by monitoring disease progression. However, monitoring is associated with high costs. This study evaluates the cost–effectiveness of NBS for ALD in The Netherlands compared to no screening using a health economic model. A decision tree combined with a Markov model was developed to estimate societal costs, including screening costs, healthcare costs, and productivity losses of parents, and health outcomes over an 18-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from the literature and expert opinion. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed to assess uncertainty. The screening costs of detecting one ALD case by NBS was EUR 40,630. Until the age of 18 years, the total societal cost per ALD case was EUR 120,779 for screening and EUR 62,914 for no screening. Screening gained an average of 1.7 QALYs compared with no screening. This resulted in an incremental cost–effectiveness ratio (ICER) of EUR 34,084 per QALY gained for screening compared to no screening. Although the results are sensitive to uncertainty surrounding costs and effectiveness due to limited data, NBS for ALD is likely to be cost–effective using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of EUR 50,000– EUR 80,000 per QALY gained. Full article