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Keywords = carbon peak and neutrality

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14 pages, 1536 KiB  
Article
Control Strategy of Multiple Battery Energy Storage Stations for Power Grid Peak Shaving
by Peiyu Chen, Wenqing Cui, Jingan Shang, Bin Xu, Chao Li and Danyang Lun
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(15), 8656; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158656 (registering DOI) - 5 Aug 2025
Abstract
In order to achieve the goals of carbon neutrality, large-scale storage of renewable energy sources has been integrated into the power grid. Under these circumstances, the power grid faces the challenge of peak shaving. Therefore, this paper proposes a coordinated variable-power control strategy [...] Read more.
In order to achieve the goals of carbon neutrality, large-scale storage of renewable energy sources has been integrated into the power grid. Under these circumstances, the power grid faces the challenge of peak shaving. Therefore, this paper proposes a coordinated variable-power control strategy for multiple battery energy storage stations (BESSs), improving the performance of peak shaving. Firstly, the strategy involves constructing an optimization model incorporating load forecasting, capacity constraints, and security indices to design a coordination mechanism tracking the target load band with the equivalent power. Secondly, it establishes a quantitative evaluation system using metrics such as peak–valley difference and load standard deviation. Comparison based on typical daily cases shows that, compared with the constant power strategy, the coordinated variable-power control strategy has a more obvious and comprehensive improvement in overall peak-shaving effects. Furthermore, it employs a “dynamic dispatch of multiple BESS” mode, effectively mitigating the risks and flexibility issues associated with single BESSs. This strategy provides a reliable new approach for large-scale energy storage to participate in high-precision peaking. Full article
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21 pages, 7111 KiB  
Article
Seasonal Variation in Energy Balance, Evapotranspiration and Net Ecosystem Production in a Desert Ecosystem of Dengkou, Inner Mongolia, China
by Muhammad Zain Ul Abidin, Huijie Xiao, Sanaullah Magsi, Fang Hongxin, Komal Muskan, Phuocthoi Hoang and Muhammad Azher Hassan
Water 2025, 17(15), 2307; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152307 - 3 Aug 2025
Viewed by 70
Abstract
This study investigates the seasonal dynamics of energy balance, evapotranspiration (ET), and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) in the Dengkou desert ecosystem of Inner Mongolia, China. Using eddy covariance and meteorological data from 2019 to 2022, the research focuses on understanding how these processes [...] Read more.
This study investigates the seasonal dynamics of energy balance, evapotranspiration (ET), and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) in the Dengkou desert ecosystem of Inner Mongolia, China. Using eddy covariance and meteorological data from 2019 to 2022, the research focuses on understanding how these processes interact in one of the world’s most water-limited environments. This arid research area received an average of 109.35 mm per annum precipitation over the studied period, classifying the region as a typical arid ecosystem. Seasonal patterns were observed in daily air temperature, with extremes ranging from −20.6 °C to 29.6 °C. Temporal variations in sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), and net radiation (Rn) peaked during summer season. The average ground heat flux (G) was mostly positive throughout the observation period, indicating heat transmission from atmosphere to soil, but showed negative values during the winter season. The energy balance ratio for the studied period was in the range of 0.61 to 0.80, indicating challenges in achieving energy closure and ecological shifts. ET exhibited two annual peaks influenced by vegetation growth and climate change, with annual ET exceeding annual precipitation, except in 2021. Net ecosystem production (NEP) from 2019 to 2020 revealed that the Dengkou desert were a net source of carbon, indicating the carbon loss from the ecosystem. In 2021, the Dengkou ecosystem shifted to become a net carbon sink, effectively sequestrating carbon. However, this was sharply reversed in 2022, resulting in a significant net release of carbon. The study findings highlight the complex interactions between energy balance components, ET, and NEP in desert ecosystems, providing insights into sustainable water management and carbon neutrality strategies in arid regions under climate change effect. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Observation and Modeling of Surface Air Hydrological Factors)
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16 pages, 1541 KiB  
Article
Economic Dispatch Strategy for Power Grids Considering Waste Heat Utilization in High-Energy-Consuming Enterprises
by Lei Zhou, Ping He, Siru Wang, Cailian Ma, Yiming Zhou, Can Cai and Hongbo Zou
Processes 2025, 13(8), 2450; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13082450 - 2 Aug 2025
Viewed by 203
Abstract
Under the construction background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, high-energy-consuming enterprises, represented by the electrolytic aluminum industry, have become important carriers for energy conservation and emission reduction. These enterprises are characterized by significant energy consumption and high carbon emissions, greatly impacting the [...] Read more.
Under the construction background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, high-energy-consuming enterprises, represented by the electrolytic aluminum industry, have become important carriers for energy conservation and emission reduction. These enterprises are characterized by significant energy consumption and high carbon emissions, greatly impacting the economic and environmental benefits of regional power grids. Existing research often focuses on grid revenue, leaving high-energy-consuming enterprises in a passive regulatory position. To address this, this paper constructs an economic dispatch strategy for power grids that considers waste heat utilization in high-energy-consuming enterprises. A typical representative, electrolytic aluminum load and its waste heat utilization model, for the entire production process of high-energy-consuming loads, is established. Using a tiered carbon trading calculation formula, a low-carbon production scheme for high-energy-consuming enterprises is developed. On the grid side, considering local load levels, the uncertainty of wind power output, and the energy demands of aluminum production, a robust day-ahead economic dispatch model is established. Case analysis based on the modified IEEE-30 node system demonstrates that the proposed method balances economic efficiency and low-carbon performance while reducing the conservatism of traditional optimization approaches. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Systems)
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27 pages, 6094 KiB  
Article
National Multi-Scenario Simulation of Low-Carbon Land Use to Achieve the Carbon-Neutrality Target in China
by Junjun Zhi, Chenxu Han, Qiuchen Yan, Wangbing Liu, Likang Zhang, Zuyuan Wang, Xinwu Fu and Haoshan Zhao
Earth 2025, 6(3), 85; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030085 (registering DOI) - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 142
Abstract
Refining the land use structure can boost land utilization efficiency and curtail regional carbon emissions. Nevertheless, prior research has predominantly concentrated on static linear planning analysis. It has failed to account for how future dynamic alterations in driving factors (such as GDP and [...] Read more.
Refining the land use structure can boost land utilization efficiency and curtail regional carbon emissions. Nevertheless, prior research has predominantly concentrated on static linear planning analysis. It has failed to account for how future dynamic alterations in driving factors (such as GDP and population) affect simulation outcomes and how the land use spatial configuration impacts the attainment of the carbon-neutrality goal. In this research, 1 km spatial resolution LULC products were employed to meticulously simulate multiple land use scenarios across China at the national level from 2030 to 2060. This was performed by taking into account the dynamic changes in driving factors. Subsequently, an analysis was carried out on the low-carbon land use spatial structure required to reach the carbon-neutrality target. The findings are as follows: (1) When employing the PLUS (Patch—based Land Use Simulation) model to conduct simulations of various land use scenarios in China by taking into account the dynamic alterations in driving factors, a high degree of precision was attained across diverse scenarios. The sustainable development scenario demonstrated the best performance, with kappa, OA, and FoM values of 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. This implies that the simulation approach based on dynamic factors is highly suitable for national-scale applications. (2) The simulation accuracy of the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS (Systems for Geographical Modeling and Optimization, Simulation of Future Land Utilization) models was validated for six scenarios by extrapolating the trends of influencing factors. Moreover, a set of scenarios was added to each model as a control group without extrapolation. The present research demonstrated that projecting the trends of factors having an impact notably improved the simulation precision of both the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS models. When contrasted with the GeoSOS-FLUS model, the PLUS model attained superior simulation accuracy across all six scenarios. The highest precision indicators were observed in the sustainable development scenario, with kappa, OA, and FoM values reaching 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. The precise simulation method of the PLUS model, which considers the dynamic changes in influencing factors, is highly applicable at the national scale. (3) Under the sustainable development scenario, it is anticipated that China’s land use carbon emissions will reach their peak in 2030 and achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2060. Net carbon emissions are expected to decline by 14.36% compared to the 2020 levels. From the perspective of dynamic changes in influencing factors, the PLUS model was used to accurately simulate China’s future land use. Based on these simulations, multi-scenario predictions of future carbon emissions were made, and the results uncover the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China’s carbon emissions. This study aims to offer a solid scientific basis for policy-making related to China’s low-carbon economy and high-quality development. It also intends to present Chinese solutions and key paths for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Full article
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14 pages, 4979 KiB  
Article
Oxygen Vacancy-Engineered Ni:Co3O4/Attapulgite Photothermal Catalyst from Recycled Spent Lithium-Ion Batteries for Efficient CO2 Reduction
by Jian Shi, Yao Xiao, Menghan Yu and Xiazhang Li
Catalysts 2025, 15(8), 732; https://doi.org/10.3390/catal15080732 (registering DOI) - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 211
Abstract
Accelerated industrialization and surging energy demands have led to continuously rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Developing sustainable methods to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. Concurrently, the rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven a significant increase [...] Read more.
Accelerated industrialization and surging energy demands have led to continuously rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Developing sustainable methods to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. Concurrently, the rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven a significant increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), which are now approaching an end-of-life peak. Efficient recycling of valuable metals from spent LIBs represents a critical challenge. This study employs conventional hydrometallurgical processing to recover valuable metals from spent LIBs. Subsequently, Ni-doped Co3O4 (Ni:Co3O4) supported on the natural mineral attapulgite (ATP) was synthesized via a sol–gel method. The incorporation of a small amount of Ni into the Co3O4 lattice generates oxygen vacancies, inducing a localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) effect, which significantly enhances charge carrier transport and separation efficiency. During the photocatalytic reduction of CO2, the primary product CO generated by the Ni:Co3O4/ATP composite achieved a high production rate of 30.1 μmol·g−1·h−1. Furthermore, the composite maintains robust catalytic activity even after five consecutive reaction cycles. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Heterogeneous Catalysis in Air Pollution Control)
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14 pages, 996 KiB  
Article
CO2 Emissions and Scenario Analysis of Transportation Sector Based on STIRPAT Model: A Case Study of Xuzhou in Northern Jiangsu
by Jinxian He, Meng Wu, Wenjie Cao, Wenqiang Wang, Peilin Sun, Bin Luo, Xuejuan Song, Zhiwei Peng and Xiaoli Zhang
Eng 2025, 6(8), 175; https://doi.org/10.3390/eng6080175 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 126
Abstract
To support carbon peaking and neutrality goals in the city transportation sector, this paper accounts for CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Xuzhou City, North Jiangsu Province, from 1995 to 2023. This study explores the relationship between transport-related carbon emissions and [...] Read more.
To support carbon peaking and neutrality goals in the city transportation sector, this paper accounts for CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Xuzhou City, North Jiangsu Province, from 1995 to 2023. This study explores the relationship between transport-related carbon emissions and economic growth, using the TAPIO decoupling index. Meanwhile, a carbon emission prediction model based on the STIRPAT framework is constructed, with scenario analysis applied to forecast future emissions. Results show three decoupling stages: the first, dominated by weak and expansive negative decoupling, reflects extensive economic growth; the second features weak decoupling with expansive coupling, indicating a more environmentally coordinated phase; the third transitions from expansive negative decoupling and weak decoupling to strong decoupling and expansive coupling, suggesting a shift in development patterns. Under the baseline, low-carbon, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, by 2030, the CO2 emissions of the transportation industry in Xuzhou will be 10,154,700 tons, 9,072,500 tons, and 8,835,000 tons, respectively, and the CO2 emissions under the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario will be reduced by 10.66% and 13.00%, respectively. Based on these findings, the study proposes carbon reduction strategies for Xuzhou’s transport sector, focusing on policy regulation, energy use, and structural adjustments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Decarbonisation Technologies for Industrial Processes)
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19 pages, 6898 KiB  
Article
Integrated Application of Radon Measurement and Conventional Electrical Prospecting in Geothermal Exploration: A Case Study of Lantian Section, Ningdu, Jiangxi Province
by Yingying Zhang, Gongxin Chen, Hailong Ye and Ximin Bai
Geosciences 2025, 15(8), 286; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15080286 - 31 Jul 2025
Viewed by 195
Abstract
As a pivotal clean energy source with considerable reserves, geothermal water plays an indispensable role in diminishing reliance on fossil fuels and accomplishing carbon neutrality. This study employed conventional electrical prospecting and radon gas surveys in the Lantian area of Ningdu, aimed at [...] Read more.
As a pivotal clean energy source with considerable reserves, geothermal water plays an indispensable role in diminishing reliance on fossil fuels and accomplishing carbon neutrality. This study employed conventional electrical prospecting and radon gas surveys in the Lantian area of Ningdu, aimed at curtailing geothermal development costs by precise targeting of resource locations. The investigations successfully delineated fracture structures within the Lantian region. Distinct anomalies were identified in the electrical profiling along Survey Lines 1, 2, and 4, with the most pronounced features observed on Line 4. Accordingly, characteristic peak anomalies were exhibited by the radon gas measurement profiles S1, S2, and S4 corresponding to Lines 1, 2, and 4, respectively. The synergistic interpretation of resistivity and radon survey data recognized two primary fracture zones: the NE-trending zone F1 and the NEE-trending zone F2. This integrated approach not only ascertained the efficacy of the radon gas measurement, but also lays a robust basis for future geothermal water exploration targeting. Full article
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39 pages, 9517 KiB  
Article
Multidimensional Evaluation Framework and Classification Strategy for Low-Carbon Technologies in Office Buildings
by Hongjiang Liu, Yuan Song, Yawei Du, Tao Feng and Zhihou Yang
Buildings 2025, 15(15), 2689; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings15152689 - 30 Jul 2025
Viewed by 131
Abstract
The global climate crisis has driven unprecedented agreements among nations on carbon mitigation. With China’s commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, the building sector has emerged as a critical focus for emission reduction, particularly because office buildings account for over 30% [...] Read more.
The global climate crisis has driven unprecedented agreements among nations on carbon mitigation. With China’s commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, the building sector has emerged as a critical focus for emission reduction, particularly because office buildings account for over 30% of building energy consumption. However, a systematic and regionally adaptive low-carbon technology evaluation framework is lacking. To address this gap, this study develops a multidimensional decision-making system to quantify and rank low-carbon technologies for office buildings in Beijing. The method includes four core components: (1) establishing three archetypal models—low-rise (H ≤ 24 m), mid-rise (24 m < H ≤ 50 m), and high-rise (50 m < H ≤ 100 m) office buildings—based on 99 office buildings in Beijing; (2) classifying 19 key technologies into three clusters—Envelope Structure Optimization, Equipment Efficiency Enhancement, and Renewable Energy Utilization—using bibliometric analysis and policy norm screening; (3) developing a four-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing Carbon Reduction Degree (CRD), Economic Viability Degree (EVD), Technical Applicability Degree (TAD), and Carbon Intensity Degree (CID); and (4) conducting a comprehensive quantitative evaluation using the AHP-entropy-TOPSIS algorithm. The results indicate distinct priority patterns across the building types: low-rise buildings prioritize roof-mounted photovoltaic (PV) systems, LED lighting, and thermal-break aluminum frames with low-E double-glazed laminated glass. Mid- and high-rise buildings emphasize integrated PV-LED-T8 lighting solutions and optimized building envelope structures. Ranking analysis further highlights LED lighting, T8 high-efficiency fluorescent lamps, and rooftop PV systems as the top-recommended technologies for Beijing. Additionally, four policy recommendations are proposed to facilitate the large-scale implementation of the program. This study presents a holistic technical integration strategy that simultaneously enhances the technological performance, economic viability, and carbon reduction outcomes of architectural design and renovation. It also establishes a replicable decision-support framework for decarbonizing office and public buildings in cities, thereby supporting China’s “dual carbon” goals and contributing to global carbon mitigation efforts in the building sector. Full article
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25 pages, 2277 KiB  
Article
The Influence Mechanism of the Digital Economy on Carbon Intensity Across Chinese Provinces
by Jiazhen Duan, Zhuowen Zhang, Haoran Zhao, Chunhua Jin and Sen Guo
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6877; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156877 - 29 Jul 2025
Viewed by 189
Abstract
The accelerating growth of the digital economy (DE) offers fresh momentum towards reaching carbon emissions’ peak and neutrality. Nevertheless, the impact mechanism of the DE on carbon emissions intensity (CEI) is insufficiently characterized. Our study first constructs an expanded comprehensive indicator system to [...] Read more.
The accelerating growth of the digital economy (DE) offers fresh momentum towards reaching carbon emissions’ peak and neutrality. Nevertheless, the impact mechanism of the DE on carbon emissions intensity (CEI) is insufficiently characterized. Our study first constructs an expanded comprehensive indicator system to evaluate DE development level from five dimensions containing 17 indicators. Panel data from 30 Chinese provincial regions (2013–2023) were analyzed using fixed effects, mediating effects, and spatial Durbin models to empirically examine the relationship and mechanisms between DE and CEI. Considering the existence of indirect effects of DE on CEs, the mechanism associated with the effect of the DE on CEs from the perspectives of economic growth, industrial structure upgrading, and scientific and technology innovation has been explored. The findings indicate notable regional disparities in the DE level across various provincial regions of China. China’s DE development significantly inhibits CEI. Furthermore, the DE’s development has successfully curtailed CE growth via three mediating mechanisms. And the DE exhibits a critical spatial spillover effect on CEI, and that effect also exhibits regional heterogeneity. Our findings can aid in regional DE development and the creation of policies to reduce CEs. Full article
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25 pages, 1658 KiB  
Article
Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Mega City in Developing Country: Patterns and Determinants Revealed by Hong Kong
by Fei Wang, Changlong Sun, Si Chen, Qiang Zhou and Changjian Wang
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6854; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156854 - 28 Jul 2025
Viewed by 215
Abstract
Cities serve as the primary arenas for achieving the strategic objectives of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. This study employed the LMDI method to systematically analyze the evolution trend of energy-related carbon emissions in Hong Kong and their influencing factors from 1980 to [...] Read more.
Cities serve as the primary arenas for achieving the strategic objectives of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. This study employed the LMDI method to systematically analyze the evolution trend of energy-related carbon emissions in Hong Kong and their influencing factors from 1980 to 2023. The main findings are as follows: (1) Hong Kong’s energy consumption structure remains dominated by coal and oil. Influenced by energy prices, significant shifts in this structure occurred across different periods. Imported electricity from mainland China, in particular, has exerted a promoting effect on the optimization of its energy consumption mix. (2) Economic output and population concentration are the primary drivers of increased carbon emissions. However, the contribution of economic growth to carbon emissions has gradually weakened in recent years due to a lack of new growth drivers. (3) Energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure, and carbon intensity are the primary influencing factors in curbing carbon emissions. Among these, the carbon reduction impact of energy consumption intensity is the most significant. Hong Kong should continue to adopt a robust strategy for controlling total energy consumption to effectively mitigate carbon emissions. Additionally, it should remain vigilant regarding the potential implications of future energy price fluctuations. It is also essential to sustain cross-border energy cooperation, primarily based on electricity imports from the Pearl River Delta, while simultaneously expanding international and domestic supply channels for natural gas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Low Carbon Energy and Sustainability—2nd Edition)
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17 pages, 26388 KiB  
Article
City-Level Road Traffic CO2 Emission Modeling with a Spatial Random Forest Method
by Hansheng Jin, Dongyu Wu and Yingheng Zhang
Systems 2025, 13(8), 632; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080632 - 28 Jul 2025
Viewed by 266
Abstract
In the era of “carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality”, low-carbon development of road traffic and transportation has now become a rigid demand in China. Considering the fact that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics vary significantly across Chinese cities, proper city-level transportation development strategies [...] Read more.
In the era of “carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality”, low-carbon development of road traffic and transportation has now become a rigid demand in China. Considering the fact that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics vary significantly across Chinese cities, proper city-level transportation development strategies should be established. Using detailed data from cities at prefecture level and above in China, this study investigates the spatially heterogeneous effects of various factors on road traffic CO2 emissions. Another theoretical issue is concerned with the analytic method for zonal CO2 emission modeling. We combine the concepts of geographically weighted regression (GWR) and machine learning for nonparametric regression, proposing a modified random forest (RF) algorithm, named “geographically weighted random forest” (GWRF). Our empirical analysis indicates that, when an appropriate weight parameter is applied, GWRF is able to achieve significantly superior performance compared to both the traditional RF and GWR methods. Moreover, the influences of various explanatory variables on CO2 emissions differ across cities. These findings suggest that low-carbon transportation strategies should be customized to reflect regional heterogeneity, rather than relying on a unified national policy. Full article
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35 pages, 3995 KiB  
Review
Recent Advancements in Latent Thermal Energy Storage and Their Applications for HVAC Systems in Commercial and Residential Buildings in Europe—Analysis of Different EU Countries’ Scenarios
by Belayneh Semahegn Ayalew and Rafał Andrzejczyk
Energies 2025, 18(15), 4000; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18154000 - 27 Jul 2025
Viewed by 593
Abstract
Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the largest share of energy consumption in European Union (EU) buildings, representing approximately 40% of the final energy use and contributing significantly to carbon emissions. Latent thermal energy storage (LTES) using phase change materials (PCMs) [...] Read more.
Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the largest share of energy consumption in European Union (EU) buildings, representing approximately 40% of the final energy use and contributing significantly to carbon emissions. Latent thermal energy storage (LTES) using phase change materials (PCMs) has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance HVAC efficiency. This review systematically examines the role of latent thermal energy storage using phase change materials (PCMs) in optimizing HVAC performance to align with EU climate targets, including the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). By analyzing advancements in PCM-enhanced HVAC systems across residential and commercial sectors, this study identifies critical pathways for reducing energy demand, enhancing grid flexibility, and accelerating the transition to nearly zero-energy buildings (NZEBs). The review categorizes PCM technologies into organic, inorganic, and eutectic systems, evaluating their integration into thermal storage tanks, airside free cooling units, heat pumps, and building envelopes. Empirical data from case studies demonstrate consistent energy savings of 10–30% and peak load reductions of 20–50%, with Mediterranean climates achieving superior cooling load management through paraffin-based PCMs (melting range: 18–28 °C) compared to continental regions. Policy-driven initiatives, such as Germany’s renewable integration mandates for public buildings, are shown to amplify PCM adoption rates by 40% compared to regions lacking regulatory incentives. Despite these benefits, barriers persist, including fragmented EU standards, life cycle cost uncertainties, and insufficient training. This work bridges critical gaps between PCM research and EU policy implementation, offering a roadmap for scalable deployment. By contextualizing technical improvement within regulatory and economic landscapes, the review provides strategic recommendations to achieve the EU’s 2030 emissions reduction targets and 2050 climate neutrality goals. Full article
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25 pages, 1583 KiB  
Article
Predicting China’s Provincial Carbon Peak: An Integrated Approach Using Extended STIRPAT and GA-BiLSTM Models
by Lian Chen, Hailan Chen and Yao Guo
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6819; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156819 - 27 Jul 2025
Viewed by 406
Abstract
As China commits to reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, accurately predicting the provincial carbon peak year is vital for designing effective, region-specific policies. This study proposes an integrated approach based on extended STIRPAT and GA-BiLSTM models to predict China’s provincial [...] Read more.
As China commits to reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, accurately predicting the provincial carbon peak year is vital for designing effective, region-specific policies. This study proposes an integrated approach based on extended STIRPAT and GA-BiLSTM models to predict China’s provincial carbon peak year. First, based on panel data across 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2023, we construct a multidimensional indicator system that encompasses socioeconomic factors, energy consumption dynamics, and technological innovation using the extended STIRPAT model, which explains 87.42% of the variation in carbon emissions. Second, to improve prediction accuracy, a hybrid model combining GA-optimized BiLSTM networks is proposed, capturing temporal dynamics and optimizing parameters to address issues like overfitting. The GA-BiLSTM model achieves an R2 of 0.9415, significantly outperforming benchmark models with lower error metrics. Third, based on the model constructed above, the peak years are projected for baseline, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios. In the low-carbon scenario, 19 provinces are projected to peak before 2030, which is 8 more than in the baseline scenario. Meanwhile, under the high-carbon scenario, some provinces such as Jiangsu and Hebei may fail to peak by 2040. Finally, based on the predicted carbon peak year, provinces are categorized into four pathways—early, recent, later, and non-peaking—to provide targeted policy recommendations. This integrated framework significantly enhances prediction precision and captures regional disparities, enabling tailored decarbonization strategies that support China’s dual carbon goals of balancing economic growth with environmental protection. The approach provides critical insights for region-specific low-carbon transitions and advances sustainable climate policy modeling. Full article
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26 pages, 3489 KiB  
Article
Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Hybrid Vehicles
by Dapai Shi, Jiaheng Wang, Kangjie Liu, Chengwei Sun, Zhenghong Wang and Xiaoqing Liu
World Electr. Veh. J. 2025, 16(8), 418; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj16080418 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 229
Abstract
Driven by carbon neutrality and peak carbon policies, hydrogen energy, due to its zero-emission and renewable properties, is increasingly being used in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (H-FCVs). However, the high cost and limited durability of H-FCVs hinder large-scale deployment. Hydrogen internal combustion engine [...] Read more.
Driven by carbon neutrality and peak carbon policies, hydrogen energy, due to its zero-emission and renewable properties, is increasingly being used in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (H-FCVs). However, the high cost and limited durability of H-FCVs hinder large-scale deployment. Hydrogen internal combustion engine hybrid electric vehicles (H-HEVs) are emerging as a viable alternative. Research on the techno-economics of H-HEVs remains limited, particularly in systematic comparisons with H-FCVs. This paper provides a comprehensive comparison of H-FCVs and H-HEVs in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO) and hydrogen consumption while proposing a multi-objective powertrain parameter optimization model. First, a quantitative model evaluates TCO from vehicle purchase to disposal. Second, a global dynamic programming method optimizes hydrogen consumption by incorporating cumulative energy costs into the TCO model. Finally, a genetic algorithm co-optimizes key design parameters to minimize TCO. Results show that with a battery capacity of 20.5 Ah and an H-FC peak power of 55 kW, H-FCV can achieve optimal fuel economy and hydrogen consumption. However, even with advanced technology, their TCO remains higher than that of H-HEVs. H-FCVs can only become cost-competitive if the unit power price of the fuel cell system is less than 4.6 times that of the hydrogen engine system, assuming negligible fuel cell degradation. In the short term, H-HEVs should be prioritized. Their adoption can also support the long-term development of H-FCVs through a complementary relationship. Full article
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21 pages, 1616 KiB  
Article
Optimization Design and Operation Analysis of Integrated Energy System for Rural Active Net-Zero Energy Buildings
by Jingshuai Pang, Yi Guo, Ruiqi Wang, Hongyin Chen, Zheng Wu, Manzheng Zhang and Yuanfu Li
Energies 2025, 18(15), 3924; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18153924 - 23 Jul 2025
Viewed by 216
Abstract
To address energy shortages and achieve carbon peaking/neutrality, this study develops a distributed renewable-based integrated energy system (IES) for rural active zero-energy buildings (ZEBs). Energy consumption patterns of typical rural houses are analyzed, guiding the design of a resource-tailored IES that balances economy [...] Read more.
To address energy shortages and achieve carbon peaking/neutrality, this study develops a distributed renewable-based integrated energy system (IES) for rural active zero-energy buildings (ZEBs). Energy consumption patterns of typical rural houses are analyzed, guiding the design of a resource-tailored IES that balances economy and sustainability. Key equipment capacities are optimized to achieve net-zero/zero energy consumption targets. For typical daily cooling/heating/power loads, equipment output is scheduled using a dual-objective optimization model minimizing operating costs and CO2 emissions. Results demonstrate that: (1) Net-zero-energy IES outperforms separated production (SP) and full electrification systems (FES) in economic-environmental benefits; (2) Zero-energy IES significantly reduces rural building carbon emissions. The proposed system offers substantial practical value for China’s rural energy transition. Full article
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