Search Results (228)

Changes in habitat suitability are critical indicators of the ecological impacts of climate change. Syndiclis Hook. f., a rare and endangered genus endemic to montane limestone and cloud forest ecosystems in China, holds considerable ecological and economic value. However, knowledge of its current distribution and the key environmental factors influencing its habitat suitability remains limited. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model, integrated with geographic information systems (ArcGIS), to predict the potential distribution of Syndiclis under current and future climate scenarios, identify dominant bioclimatic drivers, and assess temporal and spatial shifts in habitat patterns. We also analyzed spatial displacement of habitat centroids to explore potential migration pathways. The model demonstrated excellent performance (AUC = 0.988), with current suitable habitats primarily located in Hainan, Taiwan, Southeastern Yunnan, and along the Yunnan–Guangxi border. Temperature seasonality (bio7) emerged as the most important predictor (67.00%), followed by precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17, 14.90%), while soil factors played a relatively minor role. Under future climate projections, Hainan and Taiwan are expected to serve as stable climatic refugia, whereas the overall suitable habitat area is projected to decline significantly. Combined with topographic constraints, population decline, and limited dispersal ability, these changes elevate the risk of extinction for Syndiclis in the wild. Landscape pattern analysis revealed increased habitat fragmentation under warming conditions, with only 4.08% of suitable areas currently under effective protection. We recommend prioritizing conservation efforts in regions with habitat contraction (e.g., Guangxi and Yunnan) and stable refugia (e.g., Hainan and Taiwan). Conservation strategies should integrate targeted in situ and ex situ actions, guided by dominant environmental variables and projected migration routes, to ensure the long-term persistence of Syndiclis populations and support evidence-based conservation planning. Full article

Although treeline ecotones are significant components of vulnerable mountain ecosystems and key indicators of climate change, treelines of the Southern Hemisphere remain largely outside of research focus. In this study, we investigate, for the first time, the current and future distribution of the treeline species Nothofagus pumilio in the Southern Andes using a Species Distribution Modelling approach. The lack of modelling studies in this region can be contributed to missing occurrence data for the species. In a preliminary study, both point and raster data were generated using a novel Instagram ground truthing approach and remote sensing. Here we tested the performance of the two datasets: a typical binary species dataset consisting of occurrence points and pseudo-absence points and a continuous dataset where species occurrence was determined by supervised classification. We used a Random Forest (RF) classification and a RF regression approach. RF is applicable for both datasets, has a very good performance, handles multicollinearity and remains largely interpretable. We used bioclimatic variables from CHELSA as predictors. The two models differ in terms of variable importance and spatial prediction. While a temperature variable is the most important variable in the RF classification, the RF regression model was mainly modelled by precipitation variables. Heat deficiency is the most important limiting factor for tree growth at treelines. It is evident, however, that water availability and drought stress will play an increasingly important role for the future competitiveness of treeline species and their distribution. Modelling with binary presence–absence point data in the RF classification model led to an overprediction of the potential distribution of the species in summit regions and in glacier areas, while the RF regression model, trained with continuous raster data, led to a spatial prediction with small-scale details. The time-consuming and costly acquisition of complex species information should be accepted in order to provide better predictions and insights into the potential current and future distribution of a species. Full article

Solanum aculeatissimum is a herbaceous to semi-woody perennial plant native to the Brazilian ecosystem. It has naturalized extensively in southwestern China, posing significant threats to local biodiversity. This study systematically screened and integrated 100 distribution records from authoritative databases, including the Chinese Virtual Plant Specimen Database, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and Chinese Natural Museums. Additionally, 23 environmental variables were incorporated, comprising 19 bioclimatic factors from the World Climate Dataset, 3 topographic indicators, and the Human Footprint Index. The objectives of this research are as follows: (1) to simulate the plant’s current and future distribution (2050s/2070s) under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5); (2) to quantify changes in the distribution range; and (3) to determine the migration trajectory using MaxEnt 3.4.4 software. The findings reveal that human pressure (contributing 79.7%) and isothermality (bioclimatic factor 3: 10.1%) are the primary driving forces shaping its distribution. The core suitable habitats are predominantly concentrated in the provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. By 2070, the distribution center shifts northeastward to Qujing City. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the invasion front extends into southern Tibet, while retreat occurs in the lowlands of Honghe Prefecture. This study underscores the synergistic effects of socioeconomic development pathways and bioclimatic thresholds on invasive species’ biogeographical patterns, providing a robust predictive framework for adaptive management strategies. Full article

This study investigates the variations in the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) calculated based on meteorological data from six synoptic stations across the Central Region of Poland from 2001 to 2024, focusing on spatial and temporal trends in thermal stress. The average annual UTCI was found to be 7.7 °C, indicating “slight cold stress,” with regional differences. Higher values were recorded in the west and northwest compared to lower values in the southeast. Maximum UTCI values associated with “very strong heat stress” exceeded 40.0 °C, while minimum values denoting “extreme cold stress” occurred in eastern cities more often. A linear trend analysis revealed a general increase in UTCI values across all stations, varying from 0.6 °C to 1.8 °C per decade, and showed distinct positive trends for heat stress categories, particularly “strong heat stress.” In contrast, a decrease in “strong cold stress” was observed. Favorable bioclimatic conditions, defined as “comfort”, predominated during most months, especially from April to October, while extreme thermal conditions were infrequently recorded. This research shows significant changes in thermal comfort and stress patterns, highlighting regional disparities and the implications for public health and urban planning in response to evolving bioclimatic conditions. Full article

Desert plants in arid regions are facing escalating challenges from global warming, underscoring the urgent need to predict shifts in the distribution and habitats of dominant species under future climate scenarios. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to project changes in the potential suitable habitats of three keystone desert species in Xinjiang—Halostachys capsica (M. Bieb.) C. A. Mey (Caryophyllales: Amaranthaceae), Haloxylon ammodendron (C. A. Mey.) Bunge (Caryophyllales: Amaranthaceae), and Karelinia caspia (Pall.) Less (Asterales: Asteraceae)—under varying climatic conditions. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) exceeded 0.9 for all three species training datasets, indicating high predictive accuracy. Currently, Halos. caspica predominantly occupies mid-to-low elevation alluvial plains along the Tarim Basin and Tianshan Mountains, with a suitable area of 145.88 × 10⁴ km², while Halox. ammodendrum is primarily distributed across the Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and mid-elevation alluvial plains and aeolian landforms at the convergence zones of the Altai, Tianshan, and Kunlun Mountains, covering 109.55 × 10⁴ km². K. caspia thrives in mid-to-low elevation alluvial plains and low-elevation alluvial fans in the Tarim Basin, western Taklamakan Desert, and Junggar–Tianshan transition regions, with a suitable area of 95.75 × 10⁴ km². Among the key bioclimatic drivers, annual mean temperature was the most critical factor for Halos. caspica, precipitation of the coldest quarter for Halox. ammodendrum, and precipitation of the wettest month for K. caspia. Future projections revealed that under climate warming and increased humidity, suitable habitats for Halos. caspica would expand in all of the 2050s scenarios but decline by the 2070s, whereas Halox. ammodendrum habitats would decrease consistently across all scenarios over the next 40 years. In contrast, the suitable habitat area of K. caspia would remain nearly stable. These projections provide critical insights for formulating climate adaptation strategies to enhance soil–water conservation and sustainable desertification control in Xinjiang. Full article

The Grapholita dimorpha is one of the significant borer pests that primarily damage plum, pear, and apple trees, often resulting in substantial economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest remains poorly understood. In this study, we simulated an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. dimorpha and identified its underlying driving factors. The results indicate that suitable habitats, under current bioclimatic conditions, are mainly distributed in eastern China, northeastern China, Korea, and Japan, covering a total of 273.5 × 10⁴ km². The highly suitable habitats are primarily located in Korea and parts of central Japan, with a total area of 19.8 × 10⁴ km². In future projections, the suitable area is expected to increase by 17.74% to 62.10%, and the suitable habitats are predicted to shift northward overall. In particular, there are more highly suitable habitats for G. dimorpha in China and Japan compared to their predominance in Korea under current climatic conditions. The bio9 and bio18 contribute 51.9% and 20.7% to the modeling, respectively, indicating that the distribution of G. dimorpha may be shaped mainly by the mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter. In summary, the distribution range predicted, particularly for regions with highly suitable habitats, poses a high risk of G. dimorpha outbreaks, emphasizing the priority of pest monitoring and management. Furthermore, the key bioclimatic variables identified could also provide crucial reference for pest monitoring. Full article

Understanding the variations in the potential suitable habitats of different populations of the same species is crucial for targeted biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management in specific regions. For widely distributed species, the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of different populations may vary. However, research in this area is currently insufficient. Hippuris vulgaris is an aquatic species widely distributed across the Northern Hemisphere, with an altitudinal range from 0 to 5000 m, known for its high ecological and medicinal significance. In this study, we employed a MaxEnt model to simulate the current and future suitable habitats of H. vulgaris through constructing high-altitude, low-altitude, and integrated distribution models. The results indicated that bio3 (isothermality), bio1 (annual mean temperature), and bio19 (precipitation of coldest quarter) significantly influenced the distribution of high-altitude populations of H. vulgaris, whereas in low-altitude areas, bio3, bio9 (mean temperature of driest quarter), and bio13 (precipitation of wettest month) were the main influencing factors, and for integrated distribution populations, bio1, bio13, and bio19 were the main factors. The suitable habitat area for high-altitude populations of H. vulgaris will be increased by 19.66% in the 2050s but decrease by 47.75% in the 2070s. The suitable habitat area for low-altitude populations will be increased by 99.71% in the 2050s and by 13.29% in the 2070s. Our findings showed that the key bioclimatic variables and suitable values influencing the distribution of H. vulgaris populations in high- and low-altitude regions differed, and changes in the suitable habitats for high- and low-altitude populations showed completely opposite trends under climate change, with migration directions extending towards higher altitudes and higher latitudes, respectively. Full article

To build climate-resilient livestock systems, public policies must be informed by bioclimatic zoning, enabling region-specific interventions and more efficient resource allocation. This study aimed to conduct bioclimatic zoning for dairy cattle farming in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. Big data analysis techniques and predictive geostatistical modeling were applied to historical (2012–2023) and future climate scenarios under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high-intensity (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions. Kriging maps of THI revealed a decreasing north–south thermal gradient, with values exceeding 80 during critical years. Milk yield losses were more pronounced in high-producing cows, reaching up to 5 kg/cow/day under extreme heat. Areas identified as drought-prone exhibited spatial patterns consistent with THI distributions. The projections indicate that, under the RCP 4.5 scenario, over 60% of Maranhão will exhibit average THI values between 78 and 81 by the end of the century. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, large areas of the state are expected to reach THI values above 86. Under these conditions, estimated milk production losses may exceed 4 kg/cow/day for moderate-yielding animals and 9 kg/cow/day for high-yielding ones, respectively. The results reinforce the importance of bioclimatic zoning to support informed policymaking in the context of climate change. Full article

Climate change poses a significant threat to the persistence of rear-edge populations, which are located at the margins of a species’ distribution range and are particularly vulnerable to environmental shifts. This study focuses on Yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Iberian Peninsula, representing the southernmost extent of its range, where warming temperatures and decreasing moisture may compromise its survival. Our research aims to assess the climate sensitivity and habitat variability of Yew, addressing the hypothesis that future climate scenarios will significantly reduce the species’ climatic suitability, particularly in southern and low-altitude regions, and that this reduction will negatively impact individual growth performance. We used species distribution models (SDMs) based on ecological niche modeling (ENM) to project the current and future distribution of suitable habitats for Yew under two climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585). The models were calibrated using bioclimatic variables, and the resulting suitability maps were integrated with field data on individual growth performance, measured as basal area increment over the last five years (BAI5). The ensemble model showed high predictive performance, highlighting precipitation seasonality and annual mean temperature as the most influential variables explaining the climatic suitability distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Our results indicate a substantial reduction in suitable habitats for Yew, especially under the high-emission scenario (SSP585), with southern populations experiencing the greatest losses. Furthermore, individual growth was positively correlated with climatic suitability, confirming that populations in favorable habitats exhibit better performance. These findings highlight the vulnerability of rear-edge populations of Yew to climate change and underscore the need for targeted conservation strategies, including the identification of climatic refugia and the potential use of assisted migration. Full article

Viticulture represents an important agricultural sector in Oltenia, which is one of the Romanian regions most affected by temperature increases. The main purpose of the present study was to analyze the changes in climate suitability for grapevine and wine production against this climate context in the region. Two specific bioclimatic indices were applied, namely the bioclimatic index and the oenoclimate aptitude index, both reflecting the cumulated influence of temperature, actual sunshine duration, and precipitation amounts on the grapevine during the growing season (1 April–30 September). The indices were calculated as average values for the period 1961–2020. In order to emphasize potential shifts in suitability, the mean, maximum, and minimum values were calculated for two distinct periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. The results of the analysis underlined three distinct suitability changes: the area suitable for quality red wines shifting northwards (on average, about 30′ of latitude or 55.5 km), including the eastern part of the Getic Subcarpathians, which is not currently part of any winegrowing region; the emerging new areas suitable for quality white wine (the western part of the Subcarpathians); and a potentially overly hot climate developing in Southern Oltenia where grapevine varieties are currently grown. Thus, the development of adequate adaptation strategies for viticulture to climate change in the region should be considered in the near future. Full article

Enclosed courtyards with partially ground floor pilotis represent a prevalent architectural spatial configuration in hot-humid regions, where the shaded outdoor areas serve as frequently utilized spaces for heat avoidance and rest. This study employed a combined approach of ENVI-met simulations and field measurements to investigate the wind and thermal environment in the shaded areas of courtyards under 40 different pilotis width configurations. The Comfortable Wind Zone Ratio (CWZR) and Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) were used as primary evaluation metrics to systematically investigate the influence of varying inlet/outlet width ratios in building pilotis on the wind-thermal environment within courtyard-shaded zones. The results demonstrate that: (1) Under a fixed outlet size, enlarging the inlet significantly enhances the CWZR in the shaded area, with a 28.66% difference observed between inlet sizes of L/4 and L. In contrast, under a fixed inlet size, expanding the outlet has a negligible effect on CWZR improvement. (2) Under a fixed outlet size, increasing the inlet width substantially reduces PET in the shaded zone, showing a 2.46 °C difference between inlet sizes of L/4 and L. Conversely, under a fixed inlet size, widening the outlet has a minimal impact on PET reduction. (3) A negative correlation exists between CWZR and PET in the shaded area, indicating that an increase in CWZR leads to a decrease in PET values. The findings provide bioclimatically quantified guidelines for the spatial design of courtyard pilotis in hot-humid regions, offering practical insights for optimizing thermal comfort in shaded outdoor environments. Full article

Aboveground biomass models are useful for assessing vegetation conditions and providing valuable information on the availability of ecosystem goods and services, including carbon stock and forest/rangeland products. This study aimed to develop aboveground biomass estimation models for the common woody species found in Borana woodland. Multispecies and species-specific models for aboveground biomass were developed using 114 destructively sampled trees representing five species. The dendrometric variables selected as predictors of the trees’ aboveground dry biomass for both multispecies and species-specific models were diameter at breast height, tree height, wood basic density (ρ), crown area (ca) and crown diameter (cd). The distribution of biomass across trees’ aboveground components was estimated using destructively sampled trees. Most tree biomass is allocated to branches, followed by the stems. The tree diameter, wood basic density, and crown diameter were significant predictors in generic and species-specific biomass models across all tree components. Incorporating wood basic density into the model significantly improved prediction accuracy, while tree height had a minimal effect on biomass estimation. The stem and twig biomasses were the highest and least predictable plant parts, respectively. Compared with the existing models, our newly developed models significantly reduced prediction errors, reinforcing the importance of location-specific models for accurate biomass estimation. Hence, this study fills the geographic and ecological gaps by developing models tailored with the unique conditions of the Borana lowland forest. The accuracy of species-specific biomass models varied among tree species, indicating the need for species-specific models that account for variations in growth architecture, ecological factors, and bioclimatic conditions. Full article

Nitraria tangutorum (Zygophyllaceae) is an ecologically and economically valuable shrub, locally dominant in the arid and semi-arid deserts of northwest China owing to its exceptional drought resistance and salt tolerance. In this study, environmental variable importance was evaluated within the MaxEnt model using percent-contribution metrics, based on 154 distribution records of N. tangutorum and 14 bioclimatic and soil-related environmental variables. We identified the five key variables of N. tangutorum distribution as follows: Precipitation of the Wettest Quarter (Bio16), Topsoil Sodicity (T_esp), Topsoil Electroconductibility (T_ece), Topsoil Car-bonate or lime content (T_CACO₃), and Precipitation of the Driest Month (Bio14). The constructed MaxEnt model was then used to project the potential distribution areas of N. tangutorum under the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for both current climate conditions and future climate conditions (2050s and 2090s). The results indicate that, under present-day conditions, high-suitability areas occur primarily in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia; in future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for N. tangutorum is anticipated to shrink by the 2050s but is expected to gradually recover by the 2090s. As time progresses, the suitable habitat areas will generally expand towards higher latitude regions. These findings demonstrate N. tangutorum’s strong adaptive potential to climate change and provide a scientific basis for its targeted introduction, cultivation, and long-term management in desert restoration and ecological rehabilitation projects. Full article

Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite the seriousness of dengue fever, and the expanding range of Ae. aegypti, future distributions of the vector and disease in the context of climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic and topographic variables to model both the present and future distribution of the Ae. aegypti mosquito using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 10.23% (132,053.96 km²) and 23.65% (305,253.82 km²) of Peru’s surface area possess regions with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, predominantly located in the departments of San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, and Cusco. Moreover, based on projected future climate scenarios, it is anticipated that areas with a high probability of Ae. aegypti distribution will undergo expansion; specifically, the extent of these areas is estimated to increase by 4.47% and 2.99% by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 in the HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given the increasing dengue epidemic in Peru in recent years, our study seeks to identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, this research serves as a foundational framework for assessing areas with the highest likelihood of Ae. aegypti distribution in response to projected climate change in the second half of the 21st century. Full article

Climate conditions in combination with the concentration of pollutants increase the human health stress and exacerbate systemic diseases. The city of Rhodes is a desirable tourist destination that is located in a sensitive climate region of the southeastern Aegean Sea in the Mediterranean region. In this work, hourly recordings from a mobile air quality monitoring system, which is located in an urban area of Rhodes city, are employed in order to measure the concentration of regulated pollutants (${\mathrm{S}\mathrm{O}}_2,{\mathrm{N}\mathrm{O}}_2,{\mathrm{O}}_3,{\mathrm{P}\mathrm{M}}_{10} \mathrm{a}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{d} {\mathrm{P}\mathrm{M}}_{2.5})$ and meteorological factors (pressure, temperature, and relative humidity). The air quality health index (AQHI) and the discomfort index (DI) are calculated to study the impact of air quality and meteorological conditions on human health. The analysis is conducted during a hot summer period, from 29 June to 14 July 2024. During the second half of the studied period, a heatwave episode occurred that affected the bioclimatic conditions over the city. The results show that despite the fact that the concentration of pollutants is lower than the pollutant thresholds (according to Directive 2008/50/EC), the AQHI and DI conditions degrade significantly over the heatwave days. In particular, the AQHI is classified in the “Moderate” class, and the DI indicates that most of the population suffers discomfort. The AQHI and DI simultaneously increase during the days of the heat episode, showing a possible negative synergy for the health risk. Finally, both the day maximum and night minimum temperature are increased (about 0.8 and 0.6 °C, respectively) during the heatwave days as compared to the whole studied period. Full article