Search Results (271)

Rising temperatures within the urban context, as a result of climate change and the Urban Heat Island effect, have deteriorated thermal comfort conditions in outdoor urban spaces, especially during hot, Mediterranean summer days. This study investigates the potential cooling effects of integrating individual urban green spaces into a connected network, with the aim of improving thermal conditions in public areas. Thermal conditions of an 800 m² urban area in the city of Athens, Greece, were evaluated for a typical summer day using the environmental model ENVI-met. Based on an assessment of the current microclimatic conditions, a potential thermal adaptation strategy was developed, aiming to redesign the study area as a network of green-blue infrastructure. This includes a 1.5 km walking route connecting various spaces, such as squares, parks, and schools. Air temperature (Tair) and the bioclimatic index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) were used to evaluate the thermal conditions of the study area. In addition, a new function of the ENVI-met model, Dynamic Comfort, has been implemented to calculate the dynamic Physiological Equivalent Temperature (dPET) index for the selected route. The results revealed significant Tair and PET reductions compared to the current layout, indicating that the integration of open spaces into a network of green-blue infrastructure can improve thermal conditions and reduce the hazardous effects of thermal stress on people. Some notable results include the spatial and temporal decrease of the Tair of up to 6 °C, mainly in the proximity of buildings and fountains. Similarly, PET values decreased mainly by 3 to 5 °C. The Dynamic PET showed a slight reduction during the hours of maximum temperature and a higher decrease during the evening, ranging from 1 to 2 °C. Full article

Despite the growing threat of Pythium helicoides to forest plantations in China, a nationwide assessment of climatic suitability remains unavailable, limiting the development of preventive strategies. This study applied the Maximum Entropy model combined with geographic information system analysis to predict the potential distribution and suitable habitats of the pathogen across China. The model was constructed using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and published literature, together with bioclimatic, topographic, and soil variables. Simulations were performed under current and future climate conditions throughout the twenty-first century across low, medium, and high emission scenarios. The model performed reliably, with Area Under the Curve values indicating favorable predictive accuracy across all periods. Habitat suitability was governed primarily by precipitation of the driest month, temperature annual range, and elevation. Under current conditions, highly suitable areas are concentrated in tropical and subtropical monsoon regions, particularly eastern Hainan and Taiwan. Under future scenarios, suitable habitats are projected to shift toward warm temperate regions while contracting overall, with plains, basin floors, and valleys retaining high suitability due to favorable moisture retention. Windward mountain slopes are generally unsuitable, although scattered medium-suitable habitats may form in lower-lying depressions with gentler slopes. Full article

The construction sector accounts for approximately 36% of global final energy consumption and close to 40% of total CO₂ emissions, making it a primary target of international climate policy. Despite this growing attention, the indigenous building traditions of the Ecuadorian Andes remain virtually absent from the international scientific literature on vernacular sustainability. This study presents a systematic field documentation and bioclimatic assessment of vernacular bahareque dwellings in the Kichwa-Saraguro community of Ilincho, canton of Saraguro, province of Loja, Ecuador (2700 m a.s.l.). A field survey of 30 dwellings identified five morphological typologies—I-1P, I-2P, 2B, L, and C—with typology C, a compact C-shaped block with a three-sided portal, accounting for 53.3% of the sample. A structured multi-criteria framework of 48 bioclimatic indicators distributed across eight categories, adapted to the cold-temperate mountain climate of the study area, was applied to quantify each typology’s bioclimatic performance. All typologies exceeded 75% overall compliance on the global Bioclimatic Performance Index (BPI), with typology C achieving the highest value (88.5%). Categories F (Materials and construction) and H (Cultural and social aspects) scored 100% across all typologies, reflecting system-level properties of the bahareque constructive system rather than morphological differences between typological variants; a supplementary morphological BPI restricted to Categories A–E and G is reported. An exploratory, uncalibrated energy simulation of typology C provided indicative evidence consistent with the expected thermal behavior of a high-thermal-mass bahareque envelope, with simulated minimum temperatures in the sleeping area within the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) 55-2013 comfort range (T-min 18.80 °C). Collectively, these findings contribute quantified bioclimatic documentation of vernacular bahareque architecture in Ilincho, identifying attributes—encompassing solar control, spatial compactness, high-thermal-mass envelope performance, and use of locally sourced low-embodied-energy materials—that may inform sustainable rural housing discussions in the Ecuadorian Andes and comparable high-altitude mountain contexts. Its documentation in the indexed scientific literature constitutes a step toward recognizing this constructive heritage as a practical resource for low-carbon building policy. Full article

The expansion of Brazil’s agricultural frontier in Arco Norte has intensified environmental and socioeconomic concerns that may worsen under climate change. This study evaluates how climate-driven shifts in soybean suitability may reconfigure production patterns and affect logistical vulnerabilities. Three scenarios were modeled using the MaxEnt algorithm: a historical baseline (1970–2000) and two future projections (2041–2060) based on the CMIP6 climate pathways. The model integrated bioclimatic, physical, land-use and land-cover, and infrastructure variables. The results showed that soybean expansion was highly concentrated across all scenarios. Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Tocantins accounted for 82.7% to 85.5% of total projected expansion, while Bahia and Maranhão increased this share to more than 92% of total gains. Although consolidated areas absorbed most of the expansion, new frontiers still represented nearly 30% of the total gains. A logistical vulnerability index linked potential expansion areas to grain storage deficits and revealed critical conditions in the main soybean-producing municipalities of Mato Grosso. These findings indicate a growing mismatch between emerging production areas and existing logistics infrastructure, highlighting the need for coordinated investments in storage, intermodal transportation, and territorial planning. Full article

Climate-driven heat and water stress are increasingly compromising rainfed maize yields in transition zones, with significant implications for global food security. While continental-scale models of crop suitability exist, they often fail to capture the high-resolution heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes or distinguish between irrigated and rainfed systems in semi-arid regions. This study models the current and future suitability of rainfed maize in Kansas, USA, using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach. To accurately isolate biophysical constraints, we employed a novel data-filtering workflow using the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) and Landsat-based Annual Irrigated Datasets (LANID) to train the model exclusively on rainfed occurrences. We projected suitability shifts for the mid- (2041–2070) and end-of-century (2071–2100) periods under two CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), using high-resolution CHELSA bioclimatic variables. The model, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.73 and validated against 30 years of historical USDA production records, reveals a distinct spatial contraction of areas climatically suitable for growing maize. Projections indicate a significant decline in suitability across Western and Central Kansas driven by rising temperatures and precipitation variability, with the most highly suitable optimal habitats projected to decline by approximately 90% by mid-century. These findings quantify mounting climate impacts on maize-growing areas of the Great Plains and provide spatially explicit baselines for the development of regional adaptation strategies and groundwater conservation policies. Full article

An association between long-term climatic stability and endemism has been suggested, but it has been tested in plants and vertebrates rather than invertebrates. Using high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions (CHELSA-TraCE21k; 21,000 BP–present), we tested whether non-cave localities of endemic beetles in the western Balkans are non-randomly associated with local climatic stability. For four bioclimatic variables, we quantified temporal variability using three metrics (SD, range, detrended SD) and defined stability islands as cells in the most stable quartile relative to their neighbourhood at three spatial scales (3 × 3, 5 × 5, 9 × 9). We tested whether 578 endemic-locality cells were enriched in stability islands, against elevation-matched null models. Annual mean temperature produced the highest raw frequency of endemic localities in stability islands, but this pattern was not significant after elevation control. In contrast, endemic localities showed a modest but consistent enrichment in annual precipitation stability islands (observed 9.7–10.7% vs. null 7.3–8.5%; p = 0.01–0.03) across neighbourhood sizes. At the 3 × 3 scale, 60 endemic localities fell within precipitation-stability islands; of them, 20 were outside current protected areas—indicating conservation gaps where minor boundary revisions could enable protection of endemic beetles’ habitats in precipitation-stable sites. Full article

Old-growth forests play a vital role in the conservation of terrestrial biodiversity, though they are rare and increasingly threatened worldwide. The Mediterranean region hosts notable examples of these ecosystems, but information about their location, structure, and biodiversity is still largely incomplete. In this work, we tested the hypothesis that the region of Tuscany (Italy) harbors forest sites with old-growth characteristics in light of the EU indicators and the Italian ministerial guidelines. Accordingly, data on stand structural and plant diversity variables were collected in 27 plots located in pre-selected sites across different forest types of the region. As a result, 12 sites were inventoried that can be proposed as candidates for the national network of old-growth forests. These were largely unknown, ca. 10–300 ha in surface and encompassing five main forest types across 14 Natura2000 habitats. All stands have reached the mature or nearly senescent stage thanks to natural dynamic processes for over 70 years after the cessation of substantial anthropogenic disturbances. The structural heterogeneity index (SHI), based on living and deadwood biomass variables, was relatively high (66.2–84%). However, structural variables depended on forest type, thus on bioclimatic context and dominant tree species. Stands with beech and mountain conifers showed more pronounced old-growth characteristics than Mediterranean stands due to a faster recovery dynamic after cessation of disturbance. As many as 193 vascular plant taxa were recorded, with 16 species occurring with trees ≥ 50 cm in diameter. Forest specialist taxa, either woody or herbaceous, were prevalent, but numerous generalists also occurred in the gaps. Ancient forest species were also well represented, supporting the long temporal continuity of the forests. This work advances knowledge about forest sites with old-growth characteristics in southern Europe, contributing to the implementation of the national network and the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030. Strict protection of these sites is necessary to allow the forest stands to fully reach the old-growth stage in the next decades, despite the negative influence of climate change. Full article

This study proposes an interdisciplinary approach that integrates bioclimatology, agronomy, environmental education, and information and communication technologies (ICT) to analyze their potential to support sustainable land management in the context of climate change. The research focuses on the application of bioclimatic indices, the continentality index (Ic), the ombrothermic index (Io), and the thermicity index (It/Itc), combined with the use of a virtual herbarium as a didactic resource for interpreting ecological indicators associated with vegetation. The study was conducted using a pretest–posttest design aimed at assessing students’ self-reported understanding of ecological concepts, bioclimatology, geobotany, and the use of digital tools for learning plant species. The results show a significant improvement in students’ perceived understanding following the educational intervention, with the mean questionnaire score increasing from 21.99 (SD = 5.03) in the pretest to 31.33 (SD = 5.06) in the posttest (t(69) = 37.13, p < 0.001). The normalized gain (g = 0.42) indicates a moderate improvement in students’ self-reported comprehension of bioclimatic and ecological concepts. These findings highlight the potential of ICT to strengthen environmental education and to foster the development of competencies related to sustainable agricultural and forest land management. Full article

Aconitum carmichaelii Debeaux has been a traditional medicinal resource in China for over two millennia. However, sustainable utilization and preservation strategies for A. carmichaelii require a thorough understanding of environmental factors influencing its distribution. An optimized MaxEnt model was constructed using the ENMeval package based on 185 quality-controlled occurrence records and 10 selected environmental variables (bioclimatic, edaphic, topographic, and anthropogenic). The optimized model demonstrated reliable predictive accuracy, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.896. Soil moisture (37.7% contribution), human footprint (HFP) (23.9%), and July solar radiation (11.1%) were the primary variables determining A. carmichaelii distribution. The suitable thresholds were defined as soil moisture > 87.34 mm, HFP > 10.69, and July solar radiation < 19,125.72 kJ m⁻² day⁻¹. At present, highly suitable habitat covers approximately 8.243 × 10⁵ km², predominantly located in the Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and northeastern Yunnan. Future predictions under all Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios indicate a significant reduction in highly suitable habitat, with losses of 63.01% (2041–2060, SSP126), 62.62% (2041–2060, SSP245), 61.35% (2041–2060, SSP370), and 61.99% (2061–2080, SSP585). Habitat contraction mainly occurs toward higher altitudes and southwestern areas, with a maximum displacement distance of 50.56 km under the SSP585 scenario. This study enhances our understanding of environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. carmichaelii and offers guidance for its sustainable management and cultivation amid global climate change. Full article

Forest soil constitutes a critical reservoir within terrestrial carbon pools. Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in coniferous forests is crucial for enhancing ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity, yet systematic quantification of SOC characteristics and their driving factors remains limited across critical bioclimatic zones. This study examined SOC features in topsoil and driving factors across eight representative coniferous forest types in Longnan—an ecologically significant transition region of northwestern China. SOC concentrations ranged from 31.76 to 80.86 g·kg⁻¹, where Abies fargesii var. faxoniana exhibited significantly higher concentrations than other conifers. Fungal necromass dominated SOC formation (29%–45% contribution) versus minimal bacterial necromass inputs (3%–5%). Redundancy analysis identified that soil total nitrogen, C/N ratio, and tree evenness showed significant correlations with SOC concentrations and their fractions. Partial least squares path modeling revealed that tree species exerted a direct positive impact on soil total nitrogen, while having an adverse effect on soil pH. Lower soil pH and higher total nitrogen were associated with higher microbial-derived carbon and SOC concentrations. In contrast, plant-derived carbon exerted no direct influence on SOC concentrations, operating exclusively through microbial-derived carbon pathways. These results indicated that coniferous tree species-induced shifts in soil total nitrogen and pH facilitate the accumulation of microbial necromass carbon, rather than plant residues, and thus promote SOC sequestration. A. fargesii var. faxoniana can be regarded as a key strategic tree species for SOC sequestration and sustainable forest management, and its cultivation should be prioritized due to improvements in total nitrogen and microbial-derived carbon. Full article

Olive cultivation is widespread throughout the Mediterranean basin, where the world’s main producing countries are located. Regions such as Extremadura are considered to be at high risk from the effects of climate change in the near future. In particular, olive cultivation is highly sensitive to climate change and can suffer profound effects on phenology and yield. This crop depends directly on variables such as maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall. In this study, we have analysed how olive cultivation could be affected by calculating two bioclimatic indices, the Dryness Index (DI) and the Cool Night Index (CI), for three future periods. The methodology used projected ten combinations of climate models in two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results showed significant variations in the bioclimatic indices over the periods, which were used to calculate the water stress and extreme temperatures that these crops could suffer. They indicate that most of Extremadura will continue to be suitable for cultivation in the near future (2006–2035), while by the middle of the century (2036–2065) 67% of the area will remain temperate, where 72% of the olive groves are located, with a Dryness Index of 18% in the very dry category. By the end of the century (2066–2095), the zone will be 60–34% warm and very dry, with a Dryness Index of 72%. These results show that it will probably be necessary to create new areas suitable for olive cultivation and new varieties. Full article

Urban green space (UGS) constitutes critical ecological infrastructure for climate adaptation and sustainable urban transitions. This review synthesizes the conceptual evolution of UGS, elucidating the coupled dynamics driven by anthropogenic interventions and climatic forces. We highlight that UGS has evolved from spontaneous vegetation to systematically planned infrastructure, serving dual cultural and ecological functions. While human drivers—spanning policy frameworks, species selection, and maintenance regimes—dictate the spatial morphology of UGS, climatic conditions and extreme weather events modulate vegetation resilience and performance, creating distinct bioclimatic patterns, particularly within Chinese cities. Collectively, these forces govern the structural integrity and ecosystem performance of UGS. Methodologically, this study combines a bibliometric analysis of Web of Science publications from 2000 to 2025 with a PRISMA-based systematic literature review and a semi-quantitative synthesis of recent empirical studies. The bibliometric analysis provides a global overview of research hotspots and thematic evolution in UGS research, while the in-depth synthesis and factor prioritization primarily focus on China-based studies published between 2021 and 2025. By integrating evidence on both human activities and climatic factors, this review clarifies the dominant driving mechanisms shaping UGS under rapid urbanization and climate change, while situating China-specific findings within the broader international literature. Although UGS delivers well-documented benefits for microclimate regulation and social well-being, accelerating urbanization and increasing climate complexity pressures indicate that existing management approaches could be further enhanced to meet emerging demands. Consequently, future UGS development should shift from quantitative expansion to qualitative optimization and spatial equity. We propose a research agenda prioritizing cross-climate comparative frameworks, smart maintenance technologies, and inclusive governance to bolster UGS resilience, thereby advancing long-term sustainable development goals. Full article

This research assessed current and future climatic suitability for Crocus sativus L. cultivation across Italy, using species distribution models. A dataset of 721 georeferenced points from sites consistently producing top-quality saffron was combined with bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA v2.1 database. Habitat suitability was modelled with MaxEnt and projected under current (2025) climatic conditions and future scenarios for mid-century (2055) and late-century (2085), based on the GFDL-ESM4 model and the SSP3-7.0 emission scenario. The MaxEnt model showed moderate predictive performance (AUC = 0.73 ± 0.02; TSS = 0.37 ± 0.03), which is consistent with the broad ecological tolerance of C. sativus. Current suitable areas (90,049 km²) are mainly in central and northern Italy, especially along the hilly Apennines and much of the Po Plain. Response curves indicate that optimal saffron cultivation occurs mainly under moderately continental conditions, with moderate to high temperature seasonality (6.5–7.5 °C), cool winter temperatures (mean of the driest quarter 0–3.5 °C), and relatively high precipitation during the wettest month (150–250 mm). Future projections show an expansion of suitable areas (124,552 km² in 2055; 123,868 km² in 2085) and a spatial shift from lowlands and coasts toward hilly and mountain regions of the Apennines, the Alps, and the main islands. These findings can support farmers, land managers, and policy-makers in informed planning and sustainable management of saffron cultivation under climate change. Full article

Climate variability represents a growing challenge for livestock systems; however, its indirect economic effects remain insufficiently understood, particularly in data-scarce contexts. This study evaluates whether satellite-derived bioclimatic indices propagate into short-term variability of livestock-related sales from a digital agriculture perspective. Weekly commercial records from two geographically proximate livestock branches in Ecuador were integrated with meteorological data provided from NASA POWER to compute the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). A basal temperature index, defined as a four-week moving average of THI, and a corresponding thermal anomaly were derived in order to represent both cumulative and short-term thermal conditions. Linear time series models incorporating exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and a non-linear machine learning approach (Random Forest) were employed using lagged climatic and economic features. The results showed that linear models had limited explanatory capacity, indicating that short-term sales variability was primarily driven by market dynamics and logistical processes rather than direct climatic forcing. While the Random Forest model achieved better predictive performance, this was mainly due to its ability to capture systemic inertia and autoregressive structure in the sales series; climatic variables only provided a secondary, indirect signal. These findings highlight the value of artificial intelligence in identifying weak and delayed climate-related patterns in aggregated commercial indicators and support of satellite-based climate data in market-level decision making in livestock supply chains where animal-level measurements are unavailable. Full article

Viticulture is a vital sector of agriculture and economy exhibiting susceptibility to climate change, particularly in the Mediterranean regions. The present investigation examines the climatic suitability for vineyards development in Greece by exploiting geomorphological and bioclimatic data for the reference climatic period 1970–2000. The data is sourced from the ERA5-Land dataset and analyzed with R. The objective is to create a specific crop suitability map based on a simple, transparent model implemented through coding. This map identifies the climatically suitable areas for grapevine cultivation during the reference period. Results demonstrate that the model is highly adaptable, as both variable thresholds and areas of interest can be modified, while incorporating future climate scenarios can be performed, allowing for dynamic reconfiguration. According to the mapped climatic suitability, 55.1% of Greece is rated 3.5–4.0, and 12.9% is rated 4.0–4.5. The total suitability over Greece is calculated with a score of 3.5–4.0 for the 50.9% of total area, and for a score of 4.0–4.5, the covered area is 12.9%. Considering the Corine Land Cover classification as the reference land cover dataset, the false-negative areas (the model indicates that an area with vines is not suitable) are only 1.5% of the areas defined as viticultural. By providing clear and accurate spatial information, the model supports informed decision-making and the development of adaptation strategies, enhancing, therefore, the resilience and sustainability of viticulture in the context of climate change. Full article