Search Results (433)

Agriculture is one of the most important sectors of the global economy, but it increasingly faces sustainability challenges in meeting rising food demands. The intensive use of mineral fertilizers not only improves yields, but also causes negative environmental impacts such as increasing greenhouse gas emissions, water eutrophication, and soil degradation. To develop more sustainable solutions, the focus is on organic fertilizers, which are produced using waste and biostimulants such as amino acids. The aim of this study was to develop and characterize liquid nitrogen–calcium–magnesium fertilizers produced by decomposing dolomite with nitric acid followed by further processing and to enrich them with a powdered amino acid concentrate Naturamin-WSP and liquid extracts from digestate, a by-product of biogas production. Nutrient-rich extracts were obtained using water and potassium hydroxide solutions, with the latter proving more effective by yielding a higher organic carbon content (4495 ± 0.52 mg/L) and humic substances, which can improve soil structure. The produced fertilizers demonstrated favourable physical properties, including appropriate viscosity and density, as well as low crystallization temperatures (eutectic points from –3 to –34 °C), which are essential for storage and application in cold climates. These properties were achieved by adjusting the content of nitrogenous compounds and bioactive extracts. The results of the study show that liquid fertilizers enriched with organic matter can be an effective and more environmentally friendly alternative to mineral fertilizers, contributing to the development of the circular economy and sustainable agriculture. Full article

The Sichuan Basin is a natural-gas-exploiting area with intensive agriculture activities. However, the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric methane concentration and the relationships with intensive agriculture and natural gas extraction activities are not well investigated. In this study, a long-term (2003–2021) dataset of column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of methane (XCH₄) over the Sichuan Basin and adjacent regions was built by integrating multi-satellite remote sensing data (SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, Sentinel-5P), which was calibrated using ground station data. The results show a strong correlation and consistency (R = 0.88) between the ground station and satellite observations. The atmospheric CH₄ concentration of the Sichuan Basin showed an overall higher level (around 20 ppb) than that of the whole of China and an increasing trend in the rates, from around 2.27 ppb to 10.44 ppb per year between 2003 and 2021. The atmospheric CH₄ concentration of the Sichuan Basin also exhibits clear seasonal changes (higher in the summer and autumn and lower in the winter and spring) with a clustered geographical distribution. Agricultural activities and natural gas extraction contribute significantly to atmospheric methane concentrations in the study area, which should be considered in carbon emission management. This study provides an effective way to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric CH₄ concentration and related factors at a regional scale with natural and human influences using multi-source satellite remote sensing data. Full article

Cyanobacteria are a prolific source of bioactive metabolites with expanding applications in sustainable agriculture and biotechnology. This work explores, for the first time in thermotolerant Colombian isolates, the impact of light spectrum, photoperiod, and irradiance on the co-production of exopolysaccharides (EPS) and indole-3-acetic acid (IAA). Six strains from hot-spring environments were screened under varying blue:red (B:R) LED ratios and full-spectrum illumination. Hapalosiphon sp. UFPS_002 outperformed all others, reaching ~290 mg L⁻¹ EPS and 28 µg mL⁻¹ IAA in the initial screen. Response-surface methodology was then used to optimize light intensity and photoperiod. EPS peaked at 281.4 mg L⁻¹ under a B:R ratio of 1:5 LED, 85 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹, and a 14.5 h light cycle, whereas IAA was maximized at 34.4 µg mL⁻¹ under cool-white LEDs at a similar irradiance. The quadratic models exhibited excellent predictive power (R² > 0.98) and a non-significant lack of fit, confirming the light regime as the dominant driver of metabolite yield. These results demonstrate that precise photonic tuning can selectively steer carbon flux toward either EPS or IAA, providing an energy-efficient strategy to upscale thermotolerant cyanobacteria for climate-resilient biofertilizers, bioplastics precursors, and other high-value bioproducts. Full article

Understanding the carbon emission efficiency of apple production (APCEE) is critical for promoting green and low-carbon agricultural development. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of APCEE in China remain inadequately explored. This study employs life cycle assessment, super-efficiency slacks-based measures, and a panel Tobit model to evaluate the carbon footprint, APCEE, and its determinants in China’s two major production regions from 2003 to 2022. The results reveal that: (1) Producing one ton of apples in China results in 0.842 t CO₂e emissions. Land carbon intensity and total carbon emissions peaked in 2010 (28.69 t CO₂e/ha) and 2014 (6.52 × 10⁷ t CO₂e), respectively, exhibiting inverted U-shaped trends. Carbon emissions from various production areas show significant differences, with higher pressure on carbon emission reduction in the Loess Plateau region, especially in Gansu Province. (2) The APCEE in China exhibits a W-shaped trend (mean: 0.645), with overall low efficiency loss. The Bohai Bay region outperforms the Loess Plateau and national averages. (3) The structure of the apple industry, degree of agricultural mechanization, and green innovation positively influence APCEE, while the structure of apple cultivation, education level, and agricultural subsidies negatively impact it. Notably, green innovation and agricultural subsidies display lagged effects. Moreover, the drivers of APCEE differ significantly between the two major production regions. These findings provide actionable pathways for the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s apple industry, emphasizing the importance of spatially tailored green policies and technology-driven decarbonization strategies. Full article

Situated in the southern hilly-mountain belt of China’s “Three Zones and Four Belts Strategy”, Gannan region is a critical ecological shelter belt for the Ganjiang River. Decades of intensive mineral extraction and irrational agricultural development have rendered it into an ecologically fragile area. Consequently, multiple restoration initiatives have been implemented in the region over recent decades. However, it remains unclear how relationships among ecosystem services have evolved under these interventions and how future ecosystem management should be optimized based on these changes. Thus, in this study, we simulated and assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of five key ESs in Gannan region from 1990 to 2020. Through integrated correlation, clustering, and redundancy analyses, we quantified ES interactions, tracked the evolution of ecosystem service bundles (ESBs), and identified their socio-ecological drivers. Despite a 31% decline in water yield, ecological restoration initiatives drove substantial improvements in key regulating services: carbon storage increased by 6.9 × 10¹² gC while soil conservation rose by 4.8 × 10⁸ t. Concurrently, regional habitat quality surged by 45% in mean scores, and food production increased by 2.1 × 10⁵ t. Critically, synergistic relationships between habitat quality, soil retention, and carbon storage were progressively strengthened, whereas trade-offs between food production and habitat quality intensified. Further analysis revealed that four distinct ESBs—the Agricultural Production Bundle (APB), Urban Development Bundle (UDB), Eco-Agriculture Transition Bundle (ETB), and Ecological Protection Bundle (EPB)—were shaped by slope, forest cover ratio, population density, and GDP. Notably, 38% of the ETB transformed into the EPB, with frequent spatial interactions observed between the APB and UDB. These findings underscore that future ecological restoration and conservation efforts should implement coordinated, multi-service management mechanisms. Full article

Understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of farmland carbon emissions, disentangling their underlying driving forces, and exploring the decoupling relationship between these emissions and economic development are pivotal to advancing low-carbon and high-quality agricultural development in Shandong Province, China. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Tapio decoupling model, this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of panel data from 16 cities in Shandong Province spanning 2004–2023. This research reveals that the total farmland carbon emissions in Shandong Province followed a trajectory of “initial fluctuating increase and subsequent steady decline” during the study period. The emissions peaked at 29.4 million tons in 2007 and then declined to 20.2 million tons in 2023, representing a 26.0% reduction compared to the 2004 level. Farmland carbon emission intensity in Shandong Province showed an overall downward trend over the period 2004–2023, with the 2023 intensity registering a 68.9% decline compared to 2004. The carbon emission intensity, agricultural structure, and labor effects acted as inhibiting factors on farmland carbon emissions in Shandong Province, while the economic development effect exerted a positive driving impact on the growth of such emissions. Over the 20-year period, these four factors cumulatively contributed to a reduction of 2.1 × 10⁵ tons in farmland carbon emissions. During 2004–2013, the farmland carbon emissions in Zaozhuang, Yantai, Jining, Linyi, Dezhou, Liaocheng, and Heze showed a weak decoupling state, while in 2014–2023, the farmland carbon emissions and economic development in all cities of Shandong Province showed a strong decoupling state. In the future, it is feasible to reduce farmland carbon emissions in Shandong Province by improving agricultural resource utilization efficiency through technological progress, adopting advanced low-carbon technologies, and promoting the transformation of agricultural industrial structures towards “high-value and low-carbon” designs. Full article

Commitments to carbon neutrality at both international and national levels have spurred the development of market-based mechanisms that incentivize low-carbon technologies while penalizing emissions-intensive activities. These policies have wide ranging impacts for the Australian agricultural sector, and associated rural communities, where the majority of carbon credits and biodiversity credits are sourced in Australia. Undeniably, the introduction of carbon and environmental markets has created the opportunity for an expansion and diversification of local, rural economies beyond a traditional agricultural base. However, there is much complexity for the agricultural sector to navigate as environmental markets intersect and compete with food and fiber livelihoods, and entrenched ideologies of rural identity and purpose. As carbon and environmental markets focused on primary producers have expanded rapidly, there is little understanding of the associated situated and relational impacts for farming households and rural communities. Nor has there been much work to identify the barriers to engagement. This study explores these tensions through qualitative research in Stanthorpe and Roma, Queensland, offering insights into the barriers and benefits of market engagement. The findings inform policy development aimed at balancing climate goals with agricultural sustainability and rural community resilience. Full article

Rapid socio-economic development and the impact of human activities have exerted tremendous pressure on the groundwater system of the Dawen River Basin (DRB), the largest tributary in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrochemical studies on the DRB have largely centered on the upstream Muwen River catchment and downstream Dongping Lake, with some focusing solely on karst groundwater. Basin-wide evaluations suggest good overall groundwater quality, but moderate to severe contamination is confined to the lower Dongping Lake area. The hydrogeologically complex mid-reach, where the Muwen and Chaiwen rivers merge, warrants specific focus. This region, adjacent to populous areas and industrial/agricultural zones, features diverse aquifer systems, necessitating a thorough analysis of its hydrochemistry and origins. This study presents an integrated hydrochemical, isotopic investigation and EWQI evaluation of groundwater quality and formation mechanisms within the multiple groundwater types of the central DRB. Central DRB groundwater has a pH of 7.5–8.2 (avg. 7.8) and TDSs at 450–2420 mg/L (avg. 1075.4 mg/L) and is mainly brackish, with Ca²⁺ as the primary cation (68.3% of total cations) and SO₄²⁻ (33.6%) and NO₃⁻ (28.4%) as key anions. The Piper diagram reveals complex hydrochemical types, primarily HCO₃·SO₄-Ca and SO₄·Cl-Ca. Isotopic analysis (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) confirms atmospheric precipitation as the principal recharge source, with pore water showing evaporative enrichment due to shallow depths. The Gibbs diagram and ion ratios demonstrate that hydrochemistry is primarily controlled by silicate and carbonate weathering (especially calcite dissolution), active cation exchange, and anthropogenic influences. EWQI assessment (avg. 156.2) indicates generally “good” overall quality but significant spatial variability. Pore water exhibits the highest exceedance rates (50% > Class III), driven by nitrate pollution from intensive vegetable cultivation in eastern areas (Xiyangzhuang–Liangzhuang) and sulfate contamination from gypsum mining (Guojialou–Nanxiyao). Karst water (26.7% > Class III) shows localized pollution belts (Huafeng–Dongzhuang) linked to coal mining and industrial discharges. Compared to basin-wide studies suggesting good quality in mid-upper reaches, this intensive mid-reach sampling identifies critical localized pollution zones within an overall low-EWQI background. The findings highlight the necessity for aquifer-specific and land-use-targeted groundwater protection strategies in this hydrogeologically complex region. Full article

The rice-wheat rotation is the main agricultural cropping system in Jiangsu Province, playing a vital role in ensuring food security and promoting economic development. However, current research on rice-wheat systems mainly focuses on in-situ controlled experiments at the point scale, with limited studies addressing carbon footprint (CF) and energy balance (EB) at the regional scale and long time series. Therefore, we analyzed the evolution patterns of the CF and EB of the rice-wheat system in Jiangsu Province from 1980 to 2022, as well as their influencing factors. The results showed that the sown area and total yield of rice and wheat exhibited an increasing–decreasing–increasing trend during 1980–2022, while the yield per unit area increased continuously. The CF of rice and wheat increased by 4172.27 kg CO₂ eq ha⁻¹ and 2729.18 kg CO₂ eq ha⁻¹, respectively, with the greenhouse gas emissions intensity (GHGI) showing a fluctuating upward trend. Furthermore, CH₄ emission, nitrogen (N) fertilizer, and irrigation were the main factors affecting the CF of rice, with proportions of 36%, 20.26%, and 17.34%, respectively. For wheat, N fertilizer, agricultural diesel, compound fertilizer, and total N₂O emission were the primary contributors, accounting for 42.39%, 22.54%, 13.65%, and 13.14%, respectively. Among energy balances, the net energy (NE) of rice exhibited an increasing and then fluctuating trend, while that of wheat remained relatively stable. The energy utilization efficiency (EUE), energy productivity (EPD), and energy profitability (EPF) of rice showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, while wheat decreased by 46.31%, 46.31%, and 60.62% during 43 years, respectively. Additionally, N fertilizer, agricultural diesel, and compound fertilizer accounted for 43.91–45.37%, 21.63–25.81%, and 12.46–20.37% of energy input for rice and wheat, respectively. Moreover, emission factors and energy coefficients may vary over time, which is an important consideration in the analysis of long-term time series. This study analyzes the ecological and environmental effects of the rice-wheat system in Jiangsu Province, which helps to promote the development of agriculture in a green, low-carbon, and high-efficiency direction. It also offers a theoretical basis for constructing a low-carbon sustainable agricultural production system. Full article

There is a lack of systematic research on the comprehensive regulatory effects of urea and organic fertilizer application on soil quality and cotton yield in summer direct-seeded cotton fields in the Yangtze River Basin. Additionally, there is a redundancy of indicators in the cotton field soil quality evaluation system and a lack of reports on constructing a minimum dataset to evaluate the soil quality status of cotton fields. We aim to accurately and efficiently evaluate soil quality in cotton fields and screen nitrogen application measures that synergistically improve soil quality, cotton yield, and nitrogen fertilizer utilization efficiency. Taking the summer live broadcast cotton field in Jiangxi Province as the research object, four treatments, including CK without nitrogen application, CF with conventional nitrogen application, N1 with nitrogen reduction, and N2 with nitrogen reduction and organic fertilizer application, were set up for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024. A total of 15 physical, chemical, and biological indicators of the 0–20 cm plow layer soil were measured in each treatment. A minimum dataset model was constructed to evaluate and verify the soil quality status of different nitrogen application treatments and to explore the physiological mechanisms of nitrogen application on yield performance and stability from the perspectives of cotton source–sink relationship, nitrogen use efficiency, and soil quality. The minimum dataset for soil quality evaluation in cotton fields consisted of five indicators: soil bulk density, moisture content, total nitrogen, organic carbon, and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, with a simplification rate of 66.67% for the evaluation indicators. The soil quality index calculated based on the minimum dataset (MDS) was significantly positively correlated with the soil quality index of the total dataset (TDS) (R² = 0.904, p < 0.05). The model validation parameters RMSE was 0.0733, nRMSE was 13.8561%, and the d value was 0.9529, all indicating that the model simulation effect had reached a good level or above. The order of soil quality index based on MDS and TDS for CK, CF, N1, and N2 treatments was CK < N1 < CF < N2. The soil quality index of N2 treatment under MDS significantly increased by 16.70% and 26.16% compared to CF and N1 treatments, respectively. Compared with CF treatment, N2 treatment significantly increased nitrogen fertilizer partial productivity by 27.97%, 31.06%, and 21.77%, respectively, over a three-year period while maintaining the same biomass, yield level, yield stability, and yield sustainability. Meanwhile, N1 treatment had the risk of significantly reducing both boll density and seed cotton yield. Compared with N1 treatment, N2 treatment could significantly increase the biomass of reproductive organs during the flower and boll stage by 23.62~24.75% and the boll opening stage by 12.39~15.44%, respectively, laying a material foundation for the improvement in yield and yield stability. Under CF treatment, the cotton field soil showed a high degree of soil physical property barriers, while the N2 treatment reduced soil barriers in indicators such as bulk density, soil organic carbon content, and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio by 0.04, 0.04, 0.08, and 0.02, respectively, compared to CF treatment. In summary, the minimum dataset (MDS) retained only 33.3% of the original indicators while maintaining high accuracy, demonstrating the model’s efficiency. After reducing nitrogen by 20%, applying 10% total nitrogen organic fertilizer could substantially improve cotton biomass, cotton yield performance, yield stability, and nitrogen partial productivity while maintaining soil quality levels. This study also assessed yield stability and sustainability, not just productivity alone. The comprehensive nitrogen fertilizer management (reducing N + organic fertilizer) under the experimental conditions has high practical applicability in the intensive agricultural system in southern China. Full article

The discharge of synthetic dyes in industrial wastewaters poses a serious environmental threat as they are difficult to degrade naturally and are harmful to aquatic organisms. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of using clean untreated rice husk (CRH) as a sustainable and low-cost adsorbent for the removal of methylene blue (MB) from synthetic wastewater. This approach effectively avoids the energy-intensive grinding process by directly using whole unprocessed rice husk, highlighting its potential as a sustainable and cost-effective alternative to activated carbon. A series of batch adsorption experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of key operating parameters such as initial dye concentration, contact time, pH, ionic strength, and temperature on the adsorption performance. Adsorption kinetics, isotherm models, and thermodynamic analysis were applied to elucidate the adsorption mechanism and behavior. The results showed that the maximum adsorption capacity of CRH for MB was 5.72 mg/g. The adsorption capacity was stable and efficient between pH 4 and 10, and reached the highest value at pH 12. The presence of sodium ions (Na⁺) and calcium ions (Ca²⁺) inhibited the adsorption efficiency, with calcium ions having a more significant effect. Kinetic analysis confirmed that the adsorption process mainly followed a pseudo-second-order model, suggesting the involvement of a chemisorption mechanism; notably, in the presence of ions, the Elovich model provided better predictions of the data. Thermodynamic evaluation showed that the adsorption was endothermic (ΔH° > 0) and spontaneous (ΔG° < 0), accompanied by an increase in the disorder of the solid–liquid interface (ΔS° > 0). The calculated activation energy (Ea) was 17.42 kJ/mol, further supporting the involvement of chemisorption. The equilibrium adsorption data were well matched to the Langmuir model at high concentrations (monolayer adsorption), while they were accurately described by the Freundlich model at lower concentrations (surface heterogeneity). The dimensionless separation factor (RL) confirmed that the adsorption process was favorable at all initial MB concentrations. The results of this study provide insights into the application of agricultural waste in environmental remediation and highlight the potential of untreated whole rice husk as a sustainable and economically viable alternative to activated carbon, which can help promote resource recovery and pollution control. Full article

Addressing the sustainability challenges posed by the expanding livestock sector is crucial for China’s green transition. With the transformation of national dietary structure and increasing demand for livestock products, the associated resource consumption and environmental impacts, particularly carbon emissions have intensified. Reducing carbon emissions from livestock is vital for mitigating global warming, enhancing resource utilization efficiency, improving ecosystems and biodiversity, and ultimately achieving sustainable development of the livestock industry. Against this backdrop, this study measures the carbon emissions from livestock sector employing the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method, and applies the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to analyze the factors affecting the changes in carbon emissions, aiming to quantify and analyze the carbon footprint of China’s livestock sector to inform sustainable practices. The findings reveal that China’s total carbon emissions from the livestock sector fluctuated between 645.15 million tons and 812.99 million tons from 2000 to 2023. Since 2020, emissions have entered a new phase of continuous growth, with a 5.40% increase in 2023 compared to 2020. Significantly, a positive trend toward sustainability is observed in the substantial decline of carbon emission intensity over the study period, with notable reductions in emission intensity across provinces and a gradual convergence in inter-provincial disparities. Understanding the drivers is key for effective mitigation. The output level and total mechanical power consumption level emerged as primary positive drivers of carbon emissions, while output carbon intensity and mechanical power consumption carbon intensity served as major negative drivers. Moving forward, to foster a sustainable and low-carbon livestock sector, China’s livestock sector development should prioritize coordinated carbon reduction across the entire industrial chain, adjust the industrial structure, and enhance the utilization efficiency of advanced low-carbon agricultural machinery while introducing such equipment. Full article

Sulfate as a potential pollution source in the water environment of the basin, identifying sulfate sources and migration mechanisms is essential for protecting the water environment and ensuring sustainable water management. Liuyang River is a primary tributary of the Xiangjiang River. It has experienced progressively intensifying anthropogenic influences in recent decades, manifested by sustained sulfate concentration increases. However, the sulfate sources and their contributions were not clear. This study used hydrochemistry and multi-isotopes methods combined with Simmr model to study the hydrochemical characteristics, sulfate sources, and migration–transformation processes of surface water and groundwater. The results showed that the hydrochemical types of surface water were HCO₃-Ca and HCO₃·SO₄-Ca·Mg, and groundwater were HCO₃-Ca, HCO₃-Ca·Mg, and HCO₃·SO₄-Ca. Ions in the water primarily originated from carbonate and silicate rocks dissolution and sulfide oxidation, augmented by mining operations, sewage discharge, and chemical production. The analyses of hydrochemistry, isotopes, and Simmr model revealed that surface water sulfate originated from soil sulfate (35.70%), sulfide oxidation (26.56%), sewage (16.58%), and atmospheric precipitation (12.45%). Groundwater sulfate was derived predominantly from sewage (34.96%), followed by soil sulfate (28.09%), atmospheric precipitation (17.35%), and sulfide oxidation (12.25%). Sulfate migration and transformation were controlled by the natural environment and anthropogenic impacts. When unaffected by human activities, sulfate mainly originated from soil and atmospheric precipitation, relating to topography, geological conditions, agricultural activities, and precipitation intensity. However, in regions with intense human activities, contributions from sewage and sulfide oxidation significantly increased due to the influences of mining and industrial activities. Full article

Exploring the mechanisms by which green agricultural production reduces emissions and enhances carbon sequestration in soil can provide a scientific basis for greenhouse gas reduction and sustainable development in farmland. This study uses a combination of meta-analysis and field experiments to evaluate the impact of different agricultural management practices and climatic conditions on soil organic carbon (SOC) and the emissions of CO₂ and CH₄, as well as the role of microorganisms. The results indicate the following: (1) Meta-analysis reveals that the long-term application of organic fertilizers in green agriculture increases SOC at a rate four times higher than that of chemical fertilizers. No-till and straw return practices significantly reduce CO₂ emissions from alkaline soils by 30.7% (p < 0.05). Warm and humid climates in low-altitude regions are more conducive to soil carbon sequestration. (2) Structural equation modeling of plant–microbe–soil carbon interactions shows that plant species diversity (PSD) indirectly affects microbial biomass by influencing organic matter indicators, mineral properties, and physicochemical characteristics, thereby regulating soil carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. (3) Field experiments conducted in the typical green farming research area of Chenzhuang reveal that soils managed under natural farming absorb CH₄ at a rate three times higher than those under conventional farming, and the stoichiometric ratios of soil enzymes in the former are close to 1. The peak SOC (19.90 g/kg) in the surface soil of Chenzhuang is found near fields cultivated with natural farming measures. This study provides theoretical support and practical guidance for the sustainable development of green agriculture. Full article

Identifying the key factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions and accurately predicting future trends are essential for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. This study aims to assess carbon emissions in agriculture from 1997 to 2022, construct an accurate model to identify the key influencing factors, and predict carbon emissions in agriculture from 2023 to 2030 with an intelligent prediction system to discuss risk management. Additionally, the Dagum method was employed to explore regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions across China. The results reveal that China’s agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a fluctuating trend from 1997 to 2022, peaking in 2015, followed by a period of decline and a moderate rebound in recent years. Elastic Net Regression identified eleven key variables, including Agricultural Machinery Level (MA), Numbers of Agricultural Tools (AT), and Agricultural Industrial Structure Upgrading (AICE), as major determinants of agricultural carbon emissions. Furthermore, the RF-PSO method demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy, forecasting a minor peak in agricultural carbon emissions in 2027, followed by stabilization. Regionally, imbalances in emissions were observed, with the intensity of transvariation accounting for 37.078% of the disparity. Therefore, the Chinese government is advised to implement region-specific strategies for controlling agricultural carbon emissions, cultivate new high-quality agricultural productivity, and promote advanced technologies. Full article