Search Results (15)

Accurate extraction of representative operating conditions is crucial for optimizing systems in renewable energy applications. This study proposes a novel framework that combines the Parzen window estimation method, ideal for nonparametric modeling of wind, solar, and load datasets, with a game theory-based time scale selection mechanism. The novelty of this work lies in integrating probabilistic density modeling with multi-indicator evaluation to derive realistic operational profiles. We first validate the superiority of the Parzen window approach over traditional Weibull and Beta distributions in estimating wind and solar probability density functions. In addition, we analyze the influence of key meteorological parameters such as wind direction, temperature, and solar irradiance on energy production. Using three evaluation metrics, the main result shows that a 3-day representative time scale offers optimal accuracy when determined through game theory methods. Validation with real-world data from Inner Mongolia confirms the robustness of the proposed method, yielding low errors in wind, solar, and load profiles. This study contributes a novel 3-day typical profile extraction method validated on real meteorological data, providing a data-driven foundation for optimizing energy storage systems under renewable uncertainty. This framework supports energy sustainability by ensuring realistic modeling under renewable intermittency. Full article

Precise forecasts of carbon prices are crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable, low-carbon development. To mitigate noise interference in carbon price data, hybrid models integrating data decomposition techniques are commonly utilized. However, it has been observed that the improper utilization of data decomposition techniques can lead to data leakage, thereby invalidating the model’s practical applicability. This study introduces a leakage-free hybrid model for carbon price forecasting based on the sliding window empirical wavelet transform (SWEWT) algorithm and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network. First, the carbon price data are sampled using a sliding window approach and then decomposed into more stable and regular subcomponents through the EWT algorithm. By exclusively employing the data from the end of the window as input, the proposed method can effectively mitigate the risk of data leakage. Subsequently, the input data are passed into a multi-layer GRU model to extract patterns and features from the carbon price data. Finally, the optimized hybrid model is obtained by iteratively optimizing the hyperparameters of the model using the tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE) algorithm, and the final prediction results are generated by the model. When used to forecast the closing price of the Guangdong Carbon Emission Allowance (GDEA) for the last nine years, the proposed hybrid model achieves outstanding performance with an R² value of 0.969, significantly outperforming other structural variants. Furthermore, comparative experiments from various perspectives have validated the model’s structural rationality, practical applicability, and generalization capability, confirming that the proposed framework is a reliable choice for carbon price forecasting. Full article

This paper focuses on the problem of dynamic target search in a curve-shaped area by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with an optical camera. Our objective is to generate an optimal path for UAVs to obtain the maximum detection reward by a camera in the shortest possible time, while satisfying the constraints of maneuverability and obstacle avoidance. First, based on prior qualitative information, the original target probability map for the curve-shaped area is modeled by Parzen windows with 1-dimensional Gaussian kernels, and then several high-value curve segments are extracted by density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). Then, given an example that a target floats down river at a speed conforming to beta distribution, the downstream boundary of each curve segment in the future time is expanded and predicted by the mean speed. The rolling self-organizing map (RSOM) neural network is utilized to determine the coverage sequence of curve segments dynamically. On this basis, the whole path of UAVs is a successive combination of the coverage paths and the transferring paths, which are planned by the Dubins method with modified guidance vector field (MGVF) for obstacle avoidance and communication connectivity. Finally, the good performance of our method is verified on a real river map through simulation. Compared with the full sweeping method, our method can improve the efficiency by approximately 31.5%. The feasibility is also verified through a real experiment, where our method can improve the efficiency by approximately 16.3%. Full article

In this paper, the effect of fuzzy time series on estimates of the spectral, bispectral and normalized bispectral density functions are studied. This study is conducted for one of the integer autoregressive of order one (INAR(1)) models. The model of interest here is the dependent counting geometric INAR(1) which is symbolized by (DCGINAR(1)). A realization is generated for this model of size n = 500 for estimation. Based on fuzzy time series, the forecasted observations of this model are obtained. The estimators of spectral, bispectral and normalized bispectral density functions are smoothed by different one- and two-dimensional lag windows. Finally, after the smoothing, all estimators are studied in the case of generated and forecasted observations of the DCGINAR(1) model. We investigate the contribution of the fuzzy time series to the smoothing of these estimates through the results. Full article

The nature of the kernel density estimator (KDE) is to find the underlying probability density function (p.d.f) for a given dataset. The key to training the KDE is to determine the optimal bandwidth or Parzen window. All the data points share a fixed bandwidth (scalar for univariate KDE and vector for multivariate KDE) in the fixed KDE (FKDE). In this paper, we propose an improved variable KDE (IVKDE) which determines the optimal bandwidth for each data point in the given dataset based on the integrated squared error (ISE) criterion with the $L_2$ regularization term. An effective optimization algorithm is developed to solve the improved objective function. We compare the estimation performance of IVKDE with FKDE and VKDE based on ISE criterion without $L_2$ regularization on four univariate and four multivariate probability distributions. The experimental results show that IVKDE obtains lower estimation errors and thus demonstrate the effectiveness of IVKDE. Full article

At container terminals, many cargo handling processes are interconnected and occur in parallel. Within short time windows, many operational decisions need to be made and should consider both time efficiency and equipment utilization. During operation, many sources of disturbance and, thus, uncertainty exist. For these reasons, perfectly coordinated processes can potentially unravel. This study analyzes simulation-based optimization, an approach that considers uncertainty by means of simulation while optimizing a given objective. The developed procedure simultaneously scales the amount of utilized equipment and adjusts the selection and tuning of operational policies. Thus, the benefits of a simulation study and an integrated optimization framework are combined in a new way. Four meta-heuristics—Tree-structured Parzen Estimator, Bayesian Optimization, Simulated Annealing, and Random Search—guide the simulation-based optimization process. Thus, this study aims to determine a favorable configuration of equipment quantity and operational policies for container terminals using a small number of experiments and, simultaneously, to empirically compare the chosen meta-heuristics including the reproducibility of the optimization runs. The results show that simulation-based optimization is suitable for identifying the amount of required equipment and well-performing policies. Among the presented scenarios, no clear ranking between meta-heuristics regarding the solution quality exists. The approximated optima suggest that pooling yard trucks and a yard block assignment that is close to the quay crane are preferable. Full article

Acoustic backscatter data are widely applied to study the distribution characteristics of seabed sediments. However, the ghosting and mosaic errors in backscatter images lead to interference information being introduced into the feature extraction process, which is conducted with a convolutional neural network or auto encoder. In addition, the performance of the existing classifiers is limited by such incorrect information, meaning it is difficult to achieve fine classification in survey areas. Therefore, we propose a sediment classification method based on the acoustic backscatter image by combining a stacked denoising auto encoder (SDAE) and a modified extreme learning machine (MELM). The SDAE is used to extract the deep-seated sediment features, so that the training network can automatically learn to remove the residual errors from the original image. The MELM model, which integrates weighted estimation, a Parzen window and particle swarm optimization, is applied to weaken the interference of mislabeled samples on the training network and to optimize the random expression of input layer parameters. The experimental results show that the SDAE-MELM method greatly reduces mutual interference between sediment types, while the sediment boundaries are clear and continuous. The reliability and robustness of the proposed method are better than with other approaches, as assessed by the overall classification effect and comprehensive indexes. Full article

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are susceptible to faults in sensor data. Outlier detection is crucial for ensuring the quality of data analysis in WSNs. This paper proposes a novel improved support vector data description method (ID-SVDD) to effectively detect outliers of sensor data. ID-SVDD utilizes the density distribution of data to compensate SVDD. The Parzen-window algorithm is applied to calculate the relative density for each data point in a data set. Meanwhile, we use Mahalanobis distance (MD) to improve the Gaussian function in Parzen-window density estimation. Through combining new relative density weight with SVDD, this approach can efficiently map the data points from sparse space to high-density space. In order to assess the outlier detection performance, the ID-SVDD algorithm was implemented on several datasets. The experimental results demonstrated that ID-SVDD achieved high performance, and could be applied in real water quality monitoring. Full article

A public safety answering point (PSAP) receives thousands of security alerts and attends a similar number of emergencies every day, and all the information related to those events is saved to be post-processed and scrutinized. Visualization and interpretation of emergency data can provide fundamental feedback to the first-response institutions, to managers planning resource distributions, and to all the instances participating in the emergency-response cycle. This paper develops the application of multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) of emergency responses in a PSAP, with the objective of finding informative relationships among the different categories of registered and attended events. We propose a simple yet statistically meaningful method to scrutinize the variety of events and recorded information in conventional PSAPs. For this purpose, MCA is made on the categorical features of the available report forms, and a statistical description is achieved from it by combining bootstrap resampling and Parzen windowing, in order to provide the user with the most relevant factors, their significance, and a meaningful representation of the event grouping trends in a given database. We analyzed the case of the 911-emergency database from Quito, Ecuador, which includes 1,078,846 events during 2014. Individual analysis of the first-response institutions showed that there are groups with very related categories, whereas their joint analysis showed significant relationships among several types of events. This was the case for fire brigades, military, and municipal services attending large-scale forest fires, where they work in a combined way. Independence could be established among actions in other categories, which was the case for specific police events (as drug selling and distribution) or fire brigades events (as fire threats). We also showed that a very low number of factors can be enough to accurately represent the dynamics of frequent events. Full article

Most of the current wind power interval forecast methods are based on the assumption the point forecast error is subject to a known distribution (such as a normal distribution, beta distribution, etc.). The interval forecast of wind power is obtained after solving the confidence interval of the known distribution. However, this assumption does not reflect the truth because the distribution of error is random and does not necessary obey any known distribution. Moreover, the current method for calculating the confidence interval is only good for a known distribution. Therefore, those interval forecast methods cannot be applied generally, and the forecast quality is not good. In this paper, a general method is proposed to determine the optimal interval forecast of wind power. Firstly, the distribution of the point forecast error is found by using the non-parametric Parzen window estimation method which is suitable for the distribution of an arbitrary shape. Secondly, an optimal method is used to find the minimum confidence interval of arbitrary distribution. Finally the optimal forecast interval is obtained. Simulation results indicate that this method is not only generally applicable, but also has a better comprehensive evaluation index. Full article

A public safety answering point (PSAP) receives alerts and attends to emergencies that occur in its responsibility area. The analysis of the events related to a PSAP can give us relevant information in order to manage them and to improve the performance of the first response institutions (FRIs) associated to every PSAP. However, current emergency systems are growing dramatically in terms of information heterogeneity and the volume of attended requests. In this work, we propose a system for statistical, spatial, and temporal analysis of incidences registered in a PSAP by using simple, yet robust and compact, event representations. The selected and designed temporal analysis tools include seasonal representations and nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs), which dissociate the main seasonal components and the transients. The spatial analysis tools include a straightforward event location over Google Maps and the detection of heat zones by means of bidimensional geographic Parzen windows with automatic width control in terms of the scales and the number of events in the region of interest. Finally, statistical representations are used for jointly analyzing temporal and spatial data in terms of the “time–space slices”. We analyzed the total number of emergencies that were attended during 2014 by seven FRIs articulated in a PSAP at the Ecuadorian 911 Integrated Security Service. Characteristic weekly patterns were observed in institutions such as the police, health, and transit services, whereas annual patterns were observed in firefighter events. Spatial and spatiotemporal analysis showed some expected patterns together with nontrivial differences among different services, to be taken into account for resource management. The proposed analysis allows for a flexible analysis by combining statistical, spatial and temporal information, and it provides 911 service managers with useful and operative information. Full article

This study introduces the One-Class K-means with Randomly-projected features Algorithm (OCKRA). OCKRA is an ensemble of one-class classifiers built over multiple projections of a dataset according to random feature subsets. Algorithms found in the literature spread over a wide range of applications where ensembles of one-class classifiers have been satisfactorily applied; however, none is oriented to the area under our study: personal risk detection. OCKRA has been designed with the aim of improving the detection performance in the problem posed by the Personal RIsk DEtection(PRIDE) dataset. PRIDE was built based on 23 test subjects, where the data for each user were captured using a set of sensors embedded in a wearable band. The performance of OCKRA was compared against support vector machine and three versions of the Parzen window classifier. On average, experimental results show that OCKRA outperformed the other classifiers for at least 0.53% of the area under the curve (AUC). In addition, OCKRA achieved an AUC above 90% for more than 57% of the users. Full article

In the target classification based on belief function theory, sensor reliability evaluation has two basic issues: reasonable dissimilarity measure among evidences, and adaptive combination of static and dynamic discounting. One solution to the two issues has been proposed here. Firstly, an improved dissimilarity measure based on dualistic exponential function has been designed. We assess the static reliability from a training set by the local decision of each sensor and the dissimilarity measure among evidences. The dynamic reliability factors are obtained from each test target using the dissimilarity measure between the output information of each sensor and the consensus. Secondly, an adaptive combination method of static and dynamic discounting has been introduced. We adopt Parzen-window to estimate the matching degree of current performance and static performance for the sensor. Through fuzzy theory, the fusion system can realize self-learning and self-adapting with the sensor performance changing. Experiments conducted on real databases demonstrate that our proposed scheme performs better in target classification under different target conditions compared with other methods. Full article

Analysis of gait dynamics in children may help understand the development of neuromuscular control and maturation of locomotor function. This paper applied the nonparametric Parzen-window estimation method to establish the probability density function (PDF) models for the stride interval time series of 50 children (25 boys and 25 girls). Four statistical parameters, in terms of averaged stride interval (ASI), variation of stride interval (VSI), PDF skewness (SK), and PDF kurtosis (KU), were computed with the Parzen-window PDFs to study the maturation of stride interval in children. By analyzing the results of the children in three age groups (aged 3–5 years, 6–8 years, and 10–14 years), we summarize the key findings of the present study as follows. (1) The gait cycle duration, in terms of ASI, increases until 14 years of age. On the other hand, the gait variability, in terms of VSI, decreases rapidly until 8 years of age, and then continues to decrease at a slower rate. (2) The SK values of both the histograms and Parzen-window PDFs for all of the three age groups are positive, which indicates an imbalance in the stride interval distribution within an age group. However, such an imbalance would be meliorated when the children grow up. (3) The KU values of both the histograms and Parzen-window PDFs decrease with the body growth in children, which suggests that the musculoskeletal growth enables the children to modulate a gait cadence with ease. (4) The SK and KU results also demonstrate the superiority of the Parzen-window PDF estimation method to the Gaussian distribution modeling, for the study of gait maturation in children. Full article

Recent studies suggest that the minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion can outperform the traditional mean square error criterion in supervised machine learning, especially in nonlinear and non-Gaussian situations. In practice, however, one has to estimate the error entropy from the samples since in general the analytical evaluation of error entropy is not possible. By the Parzen windowing approach, the estimated error entropy converges asymptotically to the entropy of the error plus an independent random variable whose probability density function (PDF) corresponds to the kernel function in the Parzen method. This quantity of entropy is called the smoothed error entropy, and the corresponding optimality criterion is named the smoothed MEE (SMEE) criterion. In this paper, we study theoretically the SMEE criterion in supervised machine learning where the learning machine is assumed to be nonparametric and universal. Some basic properties are presented. In particular, we show that when the smoothing factor is very small, the smoothed error entropy equals approximately the true error entropy plus a scaled version of the Fisher information of error. We also investigate how the smoothing factor affects the optimal solution. In some special situations, the optimal solution under the SMEE criterion does not change with increasing smoothing factor. In general cases, when the smoothing factor tends to infinity, minimizing the smoothed error entropy will be approximately equivalent to minimizing error variance, regardless of the conditional PDF and the kernel. Full article