Search Results (1,134)

Urban green spaces (UGSs) provide critical ecosystem services (ESs) in rapidly urbanising cities but are increasingly threatened by land-use change, population growth, and socio-economic pressures. This study assessed spatial and temporal changes in UGS in Zomba City, Malawi, from 1998 to 2021 using geospatial and remote sensing methods. Landsat imagery from 1998, 2007, 2013, and 2021 was analysed through post-classification change detection to map land-use/land-cover (LULC) transitions, while the relationship between ward-level population density and vegetation condition was evaluated using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Results show a decline in total UGS cover from 60% in 1998 to 51% in 2021, primarily due to the expansion of built-up areas. Tree cover increased from 11% to 18%, with NDVI values rising from 0.700 to 0.947; these changes may reflect both natural vegetation growth and targeted restoration, indicating localised improvements in vegetation condition. An inverse relationship was observed between population density and NDVI, though some high-density wards exhibited NDVI gains associated with restoration initiatives. These findings underscore the role of both institutional and community efforts in sustaining urban vegetation and highlight the potential of ecological restoration to mitigate UGS loss and support ESs. Policymakers and planners should prioritise the protection, restoration, and equitable distribution of UGS, particularly in dense and underserved areas, as strategic urban greening enhances city resilience and human well-being. Full article

Under global climate change, analyzing carbon storage dynamics and their drivers is essential for understanding regional carbon sink capacity. Human activities and land-use change have substantially affected regional carbon storage. However, in China, most existing studies emphasize specific driving pathways, and integrated analyses of the combined effects of climate, natural, human, and landscape factors remain limited. This study aims at clarifying the integrated mechanisms by which multiple driving factors influence regional carbon storage. The InVEST model was used to analyze the carbon storage spatiotemporal changes. OPGD was then applied to evaluate the explanatory power of driving factors and their interactions, quantifying their contributions to carbon storage spatial patterns. Based on PLS-SEM, the direct and indirect effects of LULC, climate, natural, human, and landscape factors were quantified to elucidate the driving pathways of carbon storage. This study focuses on Shaanxi Province, which is a key ecological restoration region in the core area of the Loess Plateau. The main results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage in Shaanxi Province showed a continuous increasing trend, rising from 2.97 × 10¹⁰ Mg C to 3.03 × 10¹⁰ Mg C. (2) LULC was identified as the most important direct and predominantly negative driving factor of carbon storage. (3) Natural factors had a strong positive influence on carbon storage, among which slope and NDVI exhibited the highest explanatory power; in contrast, climate factors showed weaker but still positive effects. (4) Human activities affected carbon storage through both direct and indirect pathways associated with LULC, with positive effects driven by landscape factors and negative effects driven by natural factors, while climate factors exhibited mixed but weak effects. Overall, carbon storage dynamics in Shaanxi Province reflect a hierarchical and path-dependent process shaped by the combined effects of natural constraints, human activities, and policy guidance through LULC pathways, providing important evidence for systematically understanding the driving structure and pathways of regional carbon storage. These findings highlight the importance of aligning land-use policies with regional biophysical constraints to enhance carbon sequestration efficiency. Full article

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are among the leading contributors to global environmental transformation. Analyzing these dynamics is essential for understanding historical land utilization patterns and identifying the key drivers behind such shifts. This research focuses on LULC changes in the Kunar region of eastern Afghanistan. To classify the LULC types, the study area was divided into nine major classes using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, based on Landsat 07 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data for 2004 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for 2014 and 2024. Past and present changes were evaluated using ArcGIS 10.8, while future scenarios for 2034 and 2044 were simulated using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in the TerrSet platform, combined with the Cellular Automata–Markov Chain (CA-MC) model with 90% kappa agreement validation value. From 2004 to 2024, grassland expanded significantly from 68.93% (3406 km²) to 73.94% (3654 km²). Built-up areas grew from 0.59% (29.10 km²) in 2014 to 1.02% (50.39 km²) in 2024. Conversely, dense forest cover declined from 27.50% (1358.90 km²) to 22.96% (1134.75 km²), a decrease of 224.15 km². Barren land, after a temporary increase, also showed a net decline. Projections for 2034 and 2044 suggest a further reduction in forested areas to 1077 km², while grasslands and urbanized zones are expected to increase to 3690 km² and 60.63 km², respectively. These trends emphasize a swift transition in land use patterns, primarily driven by the conversion of forested and barren landscapes into settlements and grasslands. The findings underline the urgent need for implementing sustainable land management strategies to curb environmental degradation and ensure balanced land resource utilization in the future. Full article

The synergistic impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) transformations and weather pattern variabilities (WPV) represent a primary driver of hydro-geological instability, threatening agricultural productivity, soil conservation, and water quality. Disentangling the discrete contributions of these stressors to runoff and sediment yield (SY) remains a significant challenge, particularly in complex, confluence-proximal watersheds lacking major hydraulic regulations. This study investigates the Tirumakudalu Narasipura watershed in Karnataka, India, an agriculturally intensive system undergoing rapid peri-urbanization. Leveraging the process-based geospatial interface of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP), we analyzed hydrological responses over a 24-year period (2000–2023) and projected future trajectories through 2030. To overcome the traditional constraints of GeoWEPP, which was developed for small-scale watersheds (<260 ha), we present a novel upscaling framework utilizing a multi-site multivariate temporal calibration of hydrological response variables to exploit its process-based precision in capturing distributed soil erosion and landscape heterogeneity. This approach is further reinforced by an ancillary data validation to minimize error propagation while model-upscaling. Our findings reveal projected increases in runoff and SY of 14.69% and 49.23%, respectively, between 2000 and 2030. Notably, the sub-decadal acceleration from 2023 to 2030 (17.32% for runoff and 18.51% for SY) underscores a shifting dominance where LULC-driven surface modifications now outweigh climatic variance in forcing hydrologic change. Furthermore, the study quantifies how anthropogenic interventions such as strategic crop selection, tillage intensity, and irrigation regimes act as critical determinants of topsoil preservation. These results provide a scalable, economically feasible framework for precision land stewardship and sustainable watershed management in rapidly developing tropical landscapes. Full article

In response to land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in South Africa, which have varied effects on biodiversity, several studies have characterized LULC changes using remote sensing data due to its cost-effectiveness, repetitiveness, spatial coverage and flexibility. However, the geotemporal and methodological characteristics of these studies remain relatively unknown. In this regard, we review remote sensing-based studies conducted in South Africa using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). From the 343 articles retrieved from Web of Science, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases, 103 studies were eligible for analysis. The analysis showed that (a) various remote sensing datasets were increasingly and effectively used to characterize LULC in South Africa over the period 2001–2024, primarily Landsat data with integration of various advanced classification algorithms; (b) most studies were conducted in the eastern seaboard, particularly in the Maputaland–Pondoland–Albany hotspot and highveld to the north, and (c) much research dealt with issues pertaining to “pristine class” conversion to urban area and other human-induced activities, mainly in biodiversity-rich landscapes. Overall, LULC studies achieved consistently reliable accuracies, largely using publicly available geospatial datasets, thereby creating an accessible foundation for all researchers. LULC research is expected to increase as conservation efforts strengthen amid ongoing developments in South Africa. Full article

Rapid urbanization has transformed the face of Texas by converting agricultural and natural lands into expanding built-up areas. This study analyzes and simulates land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in Kaufman County, Texas, one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States, using a hybrid Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN) model within the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) Modules for Land-Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) framework. Multitemporal NLCD datasets (2001, 2011, and 2021) and six spatial drivers: Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Distance from Roads and Rivers, and Built-up Density were used in the modeling framework. Transition relationships were calibrated using the 2001–2011 LULC data, and the model was validated by simulating the 2021 LULC map from the 2011 baseline. The calibrated model was then used to simulate future LULC scenarios for 2031, 2041, and 2051. Model validation yielded an overall Kappa value of 0.84 and a correctness of 90.9%, indicating high similarity between the observed and simulated maps. The results indicate simulated urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing by nearly 30% by 2051 at the expense of cropland and open areas, with forest and water bodies slightly increasing, and wetlands remaining stagnant. The CA–ANN model effectively captured the nonlinear, spatially dependent land-transition patterns using open-source tools. These findings provided useful information for sustainable land-use planning and environmental management, with the potential to incorporate spatial modeling into regional development strategies in rapidly urbanizing areas of Texas. Full article

Understanding the intricate interrelationships among ecosystem services (ESs) is fundamental to advancing sustainable ecological management. This study focuses on the Taihu Basin and examines five representative ESs, including water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), soil retention (SR), habitat quality (HQ), and crop production (CP), for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Spatial distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics were quantified through the combined application of the InVEST model, a food production model, and ArcGIS. Spearman correlation analysis and K-means clustering were then applied to characterize trade-offs and synergies among ESs and to delineate ecosystem service bundles at multiple spatial scales, including 1 km × 1 km grids, 10 km × 10 km grids, and the county level, while GeoDetector was used to identify the associated driving mechanisms. The results indicated that (1) between 2000 and 2020, the spatial distribution pattern of the ESs in the Taihu Basin underwent significant changes, with WY and SR increasing by 48.97% and 51.89%, respectively, while HQ, CS, and CP decreased by 17.2%, 15.5%, and 47.6%. (2) From an overall perspective of trade-offs and synergies, the interactions among ESs shifted from trade-offs (r < 0) to synergies (r > 0) as the scale increased. From the perspective of the spatial characteristics of trade-offs and synergies, the intensity of these interactions varied significantly with increasing scale, but the trend remained relatively stable. (3) The Taihu Basin can be categorized into six ES bundles (ESBs). ESB 1, ESB 3, ESB 4, and ESB 5 have relatively stable ES structures, whereas ESBs 2 and 6 display significant variations. (4) The primary factors influencing ESs vary significantly across different spatial scales, with land use/land cover (LULC) and the proportions of arable land, forestland, and buildings exhibiting strong explanatory power. This highlights the critical role of coupled natural and anthropogenic processes in shaping the spatial patterns of ESs. This study considers the spatiotemporal variation and scale dependence of ecosystem services, providing management recommendations tailored to different regions and spatial scales, and offering a scientific basis for regional ecological planning and watershed governance. Full article

Understanding land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics within protected areas (PAs) is fundamental for assessing conservation effectiveness and ecosystem resilience under increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study examines the spatio-temporal evolution of LULC across Bavaria’s protected areas between 2000 and 2023 by integrating categorical land-cover data, satellite-derived vegetation indices, and environmental drivers. Annual LULC changes were first quantified using MODIS MCD12Q1 land-cover classifications to evaluate class persistence, transitions, and area trajectories and were subsequently interpreted alongside 16-day MODIS NDVI and SAVI composites to assess associated vegetation greening and browning trends. Ecological stability was characterized by using class-level persistence indicators, coefficients of variation (CVs), and linear trend slopes. The results reveal a marked greening signal after 2010, coinciding with pronounced land-cover transitions, including a decline in evergreen needleleaf forests (−480.6 km²; −32.2%) and substantial expansion of deciduous broadleaf forests (+390.8 km²; +106.1%) and grasslands (+275.8 km²; +28.4%), while wetlands experienced a severe contraction (−203.4 km²; −73.7%), indicating heightened hydrological sensitivity within protected ecosystems. Correlation analysis further indicates that anthropogenic pressure, quantified using the human footprint index, remains a dominant driver of change in croplands and urban areas, even within legally protected boundaries. Overall, this study demonstrates that vegetation trends, land-cover transitions, climatic exposure, and human pressure jointly shape ecological stability in protected areas, highlighting the value of an integrated indicator-based framework. Full article

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a major component of the global carbon cycle. This study aimed to: (i) monitor five decades’ land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the northern Nile delta using Landsat imagery; (ii) quantify baseline SOC stocks (SOCs) in 2021; (iii) project SOCs and potential SOC sequestration (PSOCS) to 2100 under four SSP2-4.5 climate scenarios using RothC model; and (iv) evaluate uncertainty in SOCs and PSOCS projections using the Monte Carlo approach. Sixty soil samples were collected during the winter and summer seasons of 2018/2019 (30 per season). Agricultural land expanded from 12% in 1972 to 35% in 2021, while fish farms, established in the 1990s, accounted for 24% of the area by 2021. SOCs varied across LULC types and seasons. Between 13 and 28% of agricultural land exceeding 7 Mg C ha⁻¹ in summer and winter, respectively. Barren land and sabkha were characterized by low SOCs (<3 Mg C ha⁻¹). Model predictions indicate that mean SOCs will increase from 5.83 (2021) to 6.16 (mid-century), followed by a decline to 5.96 Mg C ha⁻¹ by 2100. Estimated PSOCS range from 0.13 to 0.32 Mg C ha⁻¹. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis yielded median SOCs between 6.01 and 6.27 Mg C ha⁻¹ and median PSOCS between 0.18 and 0.44 Mg C ha⁻¹, reflecting moderate projection uncertainty. Full article

Since 2025, 45% of the world’s population of 8.2 billion people has lived in cities, and by 2050, that number is expected to increase to 66%. As the number of people living in cities increases, natural landscapes will be transformed into impervious surfaces, leading to serious challenges and resulting in a phenomenon named the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Although urban thermal variation has been studied globally, few studies have examined the impact of land use transitions on local surface temperatures. This study aims to address this gap by investigating the impact of LULC transitions on the land surface temperature (LST) and the urban thermal field variation index (UTFVI) in the five most populated cities in Saudi Arabia between 2000 and 2024: Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, Madinah, and Dammam. This study provides not only a comprehensive overview of the cities in Saudi Arabia but also a detailed analysis of each city using a novel approach that integrates thermal land use analysis. In this study, Landsat TM-5, OLI-TIRS-8, and OLI2-TIRS2-9 were used to process the LULC using random forest machine learning and thermal indices. Fifteen LULC maps were generated and assessed based on four classifications across the cities and time periods: urban area, barren land, vegetation, and water. The difference-in-difference (DiD) analytical approach was used to compute the thermal effect size and compare the specified changed pixels (barren-to-urban, vegetation-to-urban) with stable urban. Then, the relationship between the LST and the NDVI–NDBI were investigated. The results show that the overall accuracy of the 15 LULC classifications ranged from 89.00% to 97.00%. The urban area increased across all the cities, with the greatest changes being 448.84, 179.67, 177.96, 126.33, and 95.69 km² in Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, Madinah, and Makkah, respectively. Furthermore, the vegetation cover increased in most of the cities over time. The LST of the urban areas increased by 8.31 °C in Riyadh, 5.24 °C in Jeddah, and 1.41 °C in Makkah in 2024 compared to 2000, while those in Dammam and Madinah decreased by 2.67 °C and 0.60 °C, respectively. This study delivers robust insights into two decades of urban surface temperature dynamics across major Saudi Arabian cities, offering critical evidence to inform UHI mitigation strategies and support the long-term sustainability of urban environments. Full article

Urban expansion presents significant challenges and opportunities for ecological conservation in developing countries, particularly in regions such as the Table Bay Nature Reserve in Cape Town, South Africa, where urban development interfaces with sensitive ecosystems. This article examines the complex dynamics between urban growth and ecological implications in this unique landscape, employing multi-temporal remote sensing techniques to analyze changes over time. By investigating the historical trajectory of urbanization in Table Bay, alongside its impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services, we aim to underscore the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and conservation strategies. To analyze land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics over a 24-year period, this study leveraged a time series of satellite imagery processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Data can be accessed using their respective collection IDs within the GEE platform. The use of remote sensing tools aligns with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15, which focuses on the protection, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems. Urban encroachment analysis indicates that approximately 0.324 km² of built-up area expanded directly within the reserve boundary, highlighting a measurable degree of infringement into protected zones. The dominance of built-up and bare land classes highlights the early encroachment of urban infrastructure and anthropogenic disturbance, setting the stage for subsequent land cover transformations observed in later years (2012 and 2024). These findings demonstrate a persistent trend of urban encroachment and ecological alteration within the Table Bay Nature Reserve. With the increase in global population levels, urban expansion into protected conservation areas has become a critical environmental concern, threatening biodiversity globally. This challenge is particularly acute in developing countries as seen in regions like the Table Bay Nature Reserve in Cape Town, South Africa, where urban development is interfaced with sensitive ecosystems. Full article

Land use/land cover (LULC) change significantly influences a range of environmental and socio-economic issues, including climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, ecosystem services, and food security, at local, regional, and global levels. In the northwestern Himalayan region, particularly in Rajouri district of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), LULC change has profound environmental and socio-economic implications. Understanding the temporal and spatial dimensions of LULC change is crucial for assessing the impact of human activities on the region’s environment. The present study aimed to analyze LULC change in Rajouri district of J&K, India over a 30-year period from 1990 to 2020 and to project future LULC dynamics for the next 30 years up to 2050. Landsat imagery with a supervised classification technique was used for classification and generation of LULC maps. Moreover, CA Markov model was used to predict the future LULC status of the area. The model validation exhibited strong performance, with Kappa statistics exceeding 0.90, indicating a high level of reliability in the projections. The results indicate considerable changes in different land use classes from 1990 to 2020. Over the 30-year period, dense forest showed the maximum reduction of about −20.69 Km², followed by open forest (−15.87 Km²) and grassland (−13.75 Km²). Wasteland showed the maximum increase of about +28.24 Km², followed by built-up (+17.90 Km²) and cropland (+12.50 Km²). The cumulative impact of deforestation from 1990 to 2020 amounts to approximately 43.17 Km², while afforestation efforts only managed to reclaim 6.61 Km² of land. The future prediction using the CA Markov model suggests further changes in LULC patterns, with built-up, cropland, and wasteland projected to increase exponentially by 2050, accompanied by sharp declines in forests. Therefore, policymakers should prioritize sustainable land management and forest conservation strategies to mitigate the potential negative impacts of LULC changes on the environment, ensuring balanced and sustainable development. Full article

The Aravalli Mountain System (AMS) is one of the oldest fold orogens in the world, serving as a natural boundary against desertification in north-western India. The AMS has high environmental importance and faces accelerated soil degradation driven by both anthropogenic pressures and climatic shifts. Still, high-resolution measurements of soil erosion processes have not been conducted on the AMS scale. The present study assesses long-term LULC transitions between 2001 and 2021, identifies high-resolution short-term LULC dynamics between 2017 and 2024, and models spatiotemporal soil erosion dynamics using the RUSLE model. The findings indicate that LULC has changed rapidly, with built-up areas increasing by 53 per cent at the expense of rangelands and croplands. These drivers resulted in a 13.8 per cent increase in the mean annual soil loss between 2017 and 2024, from 1.59 to 1.81 t/ha/yr, while forest cover has increased over the timescale, as is evident in this study. The steep slopes, susceptible soils, and mining areas are strongly associated with erosion hotspots. Increased soil erosion in the AMS despite a significant increase in afforestation highlights that local conservation cannot compensate for massive land conversion. The present study provides a scalable, high-resolution framework for assessing soil erosion in vulnerable old mountain systems globally for sustainable land-use planning, mineral governance, and integrated conservation to protect for future generations. Full article

Land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly influences national carbon dynamics and the effectiveness of forest-based climate mitigation strategies, particularly in mountainous developing countries. This study integrates scenario-based LULC modeling, spatially explicit carbon accounting, and economic valuation to assess how alternative development pathways affect carbon storage and its economic value in Nepal over the 2020–2050 period. LULC projections for four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Urban Development (RUD), Forest Degradation and Terai Contraction (FDTC), and Agricultural Land Abandonment and Ecological Recovery (ALER), were generated using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler, with 2020 as the baseline. These projections were then used as inputs to the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Carbon Storage and Sequestration model to estimate changes in ecosystem carbon stocks, integrating aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil organic carbon, and dead organic matter pools. Carbon stock changes were monetized using a constant carbon price of USD 5/tCO₂e and a 3% discount rate to estimate net present values (NPV). Results reveal strong divergence across scenarios. National carbon storage remains near-neutral under BAU (−0.46% by 2050), declines under RUD (−2.42%) and FDTC (−5.32%), and increases substantially under ALER (+11.74%). These biophysical outcomes translate into contrasting economic values: BAU yields a small negative NPV, RUD and FDTC generate large discounted losses, and ALER produces a strongly positive NPV exceeding USD 800 million by 2050. Spatially, forest and other wooded land dominate national carbon dynamics, while urban expansion and forest degradation drive disproportionate losses. Overall, the study results demonstrate that recovery-oriented land-use pathways offer substantially greater long-term carbon and economic benefits than development trajectories dominated by urban expansion or forest degradation, providing a policy-relevant framework to support Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, together with conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) planning and long-term mitigation assessment in Nepal. Full article

Land degradation is a growing concern in arid and semi-arid regions, posing severe threats to ecosystem stability, agricultural productivity, and rural livelihoods due to the combined effects of natural processes and human activities. This study examines the role of Opuntia ficus-indica (OFI), a drought-resistant cactus, in mitigating land degradation and enhancing ecosystem resilience in central Tunisia using Landsat 5 and 9 satellites with 30 m spatial resolution. Spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) and variations in key spectral indices sensitive to vegetation and soil conditions were analyzed over the period from 2000 to 2024. Using a remote sensing-based multi-index framework, Land Degradation Index (LDI) maps were generated for 2000–2010 and 2010–2024 sub-periods. Change detection analysis revealed a marked reduction in moderate-to-severe land degradation, particularly in areas characterized by OFI expansion. NDVI values associated with OFI increased significantly, from less than 0.1 in 2000 to about 0.18 in 2024, indicating enhanced vegetation vigor and improved adaptive capacity under semi-arid climatic conditions. To further assess species performance, correlation analyses were conducted between NDVI-OFI values and topographic variables, including elevation and terrain curvature. Results show a strong positive relationship between NDVI-OFI and elevation, with a clear temporal improvement from 2000 to 2024. In addition, NDVI values were highest in convex terrain forms (0.2), highlighting OFI’s ability to thrive in erosion-prone and topographically exposed environments. Findings confirm the effectiveness of OFI in reversing land degradation processes, supporting restoration through an integrated approach combining multi-temporal remote sensing and topographic analysis. The study highlights the potential of OFI as a cost-effective and scalable nature-based solution for land rehabilitation in semi-arid regions. Full article