Search Results (36)

Mining project evaluation depends on geological resource models, yet these models remain inherently uncertain because they are constructed from sparse drillhole data, indirect geophysical observations, and incomplete geological knowledge. Conventional workflows typically treat this uncertainty only partially by defining deterministic orebody wireframes and then interpolating or simulating grades within these fixed boundaries. This separation neglects the propagation of geometric uncertainty into grade continuity, resource tonnage, and economic forecasts. The challenge is particularly significant where drillholes do not fully intersect the orebody, leaving its extent at depth unconstrained and forcing boundary placement to rely on extrapolation rather than data-supported inference. To overcome this limitation, we present a sequential uncertainty quantification framework that integrates level-set implicit geological modeling within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler with Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGSIM) grades. Orebody geometry is represented using a signed distance function perturbed by Gaussian random fields and constrained by drillhole, outcrop, and geological interpretation data. The resulting ensemble captures plausible geometric variability, particularly in poorly constrained regions. Conditional grade simulations are then generated for each accepted geometry, producing paired realizations of geometry and grade uncertainty. Applied to the Tarmante copper deposit in Morocco, the framework demonstrates that deterministic models overestimate tonnage, whereas the joint ensemble provides realistic grade–tonnage uncertainty, enabling more reliable resource evaluation and risk-informed decision-making. Full article

Fine segmentation of point clouds in hull structure junction regions is a key technology for achieving high-precision digital inspection. Conventional hard-segmentation methods frequently yield over- or under-segmentation in junction regions such as welds, compromising the reliability of subsequent inspections. This study presents a computational framework that combines the Gaussian-Uniform Mixture Model (GUMM) with the Hidden Markov Random Field (HMRF) and follows a “coarse segmentation–model construction–fine segmentation” pipeline. The framework jointly optimizes the sampling model, the probabilistic model, and the expectation–maximization (EM) inference procedure. By leveraging model simplification and dimensionality reduction, the algorithm simultaneously addresses initial value estimation, spatial distribution characterization, and continuity constraints. Experiments on representative structures, including wall corner, T-joint weld, groove, and flange, show that the proposed framework outperforms the conventional GMM-EM method by approximately 2.5% in precision and 1.5% in both accuracy and F1 score. In local segmentation tasks of complex hull structures, the method achieves a deviation of less than 0.2 mm relative to manual measurements, validating its practical utility in engineering contexts. Full article

Traditional Underwater Acoustic Communication (UAC) typically assumes static or slowly varying channels over short observation periods and models multipath amplitude fluctuations with single-state statistical distributions. However, field measurements in shallow-water high-speed mobile scenarios reveal that the combined effects of rapid platform motion and dynamic environments induce multi-scale time-varying amplitude characteristics. These include distance-dependent attenuation, fluctuations in average energy, and rapid random variations. This observation directly challenges traditional single-state models and wide-sense stationary assumptions. To address this, we propose a multi-scale time-varying multipath amplitude model. Using singular spectrum analysis, we decompose amplitude sequences into hierarchical components: large-scale components modeled via acoustic propagation physics; medium-scale components characterized by Hidden Markov Models; and small-scale components described by zero-mean Gaussian distributions. Building on this model, we further develop a time-varying impulse response simulation framework validated with experimental data. The results demonstrate superior performance over conventional single-state distribution and autoregressive models in statistical distribution matching, temporal dynamics representation, and communication performance testing. The model effectively characterizes non-stationary time-varying channels, supporting high-precision modeling and simulation for mobile UAC systems. Full article

Transpiration is the dominant process driving water loss in crops, significantly influencing their growth, development, and yield. Efficient monitoring of transpiration rate (Tr) is crucial for evaluating crop physiological status and optimizing water management strategies. The three-temperature (3T) model has potential for rapid estimation of transpiration rates, but its application to low-altitude remote sensing has not yet been further investigated. To evaluate the performance of 3T model based on land surface temperature (LST) and canopy temperature (T_C) in estimating transpiration rate, this study utilized an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a thermal infrared (TIR) camera to capture TIR images of summer maize during the nodulation-irrigation stage under four different moisture treatments, from which LST was extracted. The Gaussian Hidden Markov Random Field (GHMRF) model was applied to segment the TIR images, facilitating the extraction of T_C. Finally, an improved 3T model incorporating fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) was proposed. The findings of the study demonstrate that: (1) The GHMRF model offers an effective approach for TIR image segmentation. The mechanism of thermal TIR segmentation implemented by the GHMRF model is explored. The results indicate that when the potential energy function parameter β value is 0.1, the optimal performance is provided. (2) The feasibility of utilizing UAV-based TIR remote sensing in conjunction with the 3T model for estimating Tr has been demonstrated, showing a significant correlation between the measured and the estimated transpiration rate (T_r-3T_C), derived from T_C data obtained through the segmentation and processing of TIR imagery. The correlation coefficients (r) were 0.946 in 2022 and 0.872 in 2023. (3) The improved 3T model has demonstrated its ability to enhance the estimation accuracy of crop Tr rapidly and effectively, exhibiting a robust correlation with T_r-3T_C. The correlation coefficients for the two observed years are 0.991 and 0.989, respectively, while the model maintains low RMSE of 0.756 mmol H₂O m⁻² s⁻¹ and 0.555 mmol H₂O m⁻² s⁻¹ for the respective years, indicating strong interannual stability. Full article

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) remote sensing (RS) technology is an ideal tool to map flooded areas on account of its all-time, all-weather imaging capability. Existing SAR data-based change detection approaches lack well-discriminant change indices for reliable floodwater mapping. To resolve this issue, an unsupervised change detection approach, made up of two main steps, is proposed for detecting floodwaters from bi-temporal SAR data. In the first step, an improved wavelet-fusion flood-change index (IWFCI) is proposed. The IWFCI modifies the mean-ratio change index (CI) to fuse it with the log-ratio CI using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The IWFCI also employs a discriminant feature derived from the co-flood image to enhance the separability between the non-flood and flood areas. In the second step, an uncertainty-sensitive Markov random field (USMRF) model is proposed to diminish the over-smoothness issue in the areas with high uncertainty based on a new Gaussian uncertainty term. To appraise the efficacy of the floodwater detection approach proposed in this study, comparative experiments were conducted in two stages on four datasets, each including a normalized difference water index (NDWI) and pre-and co-flood Sentinel-1 data. In the first stage, the proposed IWFCI was compared to a number of state-of-the-art (SOTA) CIs, and the second stage compared USMRF to the SOTA change detection algorithms. From the experimental results in the first stage, the proposed IWFCI, yielding an average F-score of 86.20%, performed better than SOTA CIs. Likewise, according to the experimental results obtained in the second stage, the USMRF model with an average F-score of 89.27% outperformed the comparative methods in classifying non-flood and flood classes. Accordingly, the proposed floodwater detection approach, combining IWFCI and USMRF, can serve as a reliable tool for detecting flooded areas in SAR data. Full article

We explore the application of integrated nested Laplace approximations for the Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models characterized by long memory. The logarithmic variance persistence in these models is represented by a Fractional Gaussian Noise process, which we approximate as a linear combination of independent first-order autoregressive processes, lending itself to a Gaussian Markov Random Field representation. Our results from Monte Carlo experiments indicate that this approach exhibits small sample properties akin to those of Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimators. Additionally, it offers the advantages of reduced computational complexity and the mitigation of posterior convergence issues. We employ this methodology to estimate volatility dependency patterns for both the SP&500 index and major cryptocurrencies. We thoroughly assess the in-sample fit and extend our analysis to the construction of out-of-sample forecasts. Furthermore, we propose multi-factor extensions and apply this method to estimate volatility measurements from high-frequency data, underscoring its exceptional computational efficiency. Our simulation results demonstrate that the INLA methodology achieves comparable accuracy to traditional MCMC methods for estimating latent parameters and volatilities in LMSV models. The proposed model extensions show strong in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast performance, highlighting the versatility of the INLA approach. This method is particularly advantageous in high-frequency contexts, where the computational demands of traditional posterior simulations are often prohibitive. Full article

Accurate forecasting of high-resolution particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5) levels is essential for the development of public health policy. However, datasets used for this purpose often contain missing observations. This study presents a two-stage approach to handle this problem. The first stage is a multivariate spatial time series (MSTS) model, used to generate forecasts for the sampled spatial units and to impute missing observations. The MSTS model utilizes the similarities between the temporal patterns of the time series of the spatial units to impute the missing data across space. The second stage is the high-resolution prediction model, which generates predictions that cover the entire study domain. The second stage faces the big N problem giving rise to complex memory and computational problems. As a solution to the big N problem, we propose a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) for innovations with the Matérn covariance matrix obtained from the corresponding Gaussian field (GF) matrix by means of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) method and the finite element method (FEM). For inference, we propose Bayesian statistics and integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in the R-INLA package. The above approach is demonstrated using daily data collected from 13 PM_2.5 monitoring stations in Jakarta Province, Indonesia, for 1 January–31 December 2022. The first stage of the model generates PM_2.5 forecasts for the 13 monitoring stations for the period 1–31 January 2023, imputing missing data by means of the MSTS model. To capture temporal trends in the PM_2.5 concentrations, the model applies a first-order autoregressive process and a seasonal process. The second stage involves creating a high-resolution map for the period 1–31 January 2023, for sampled and non-sampled spatiotemporal units. It uses the MSTS-generated PM_2.5 predictions for the sampled spatiotemporal units and observations of the covariate’s altitude, population density, and rainfall for sampled and non-samples spatiotemporal units. For the spatially correlated random effects, we apply a first-order random walk process. The validation of out-of-sample forecasts indicates a strong model fit with low mean squared error (0.001), mean absolute error (0.037), and mean absolute percentage error (0.041), and a high R² value (0.855). The analysis reveals that altitude and precipitation negatively impact PM_2.5 concentrations, while population density has a positive effect. Specifically, a one-meter increase in altitude is linked to a 7.8% decrease in PM_2.5, while a one-person increase in population density leads to a 7.0% rise in PM_2.5. Additionally, a one-millimeter increase in rainfall corresponds to a 3.9% decrease in PM_2.5. The paper makes a valuable contribution to the field of forecasting high-resolution PM_2.5 levels, which is essential for providing detailed, accurate information for public health policy. The approach presents a new and innovative method for addressing the problem of missing data and high-resolution forecasting. Full article

Background: Examining lung cancer (LC) cases in Virginia (VA) is essential due to its significant public health implications. By studying demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, this paper aims to provide insights into the underlying drivers of LC prevalence in the state adjusted for spatial associations at the zipcode level. Methods: We model the available VA zipcode-level LC counts via (spatial) Poisson and negative binomial regression models, taking into account missing covariate data, zipcode-level spatial association and allow for overdispersion. Under latent Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) assumptions, our Bayesian hierarchical model powered by Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) considers simultaneous (spatial) imputation of all missing covariates through elegant prediction. The spatial random effect across zip codes follows a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) prior. Results: Zip codes with elevated smoking indices demonstrated a corresponding increase in LC counts, underscoring the well-established connection between smoking and LC. Additionally, we observed a notable correlation between higher Social Deprivation Index (SDI) scores and increased LC counts, aligning with the prevalent pattern of heightened LC prevalence in regions characterized by lower income and education levels. On the demographic level, our findings indicated higher LC counts in zip codes with larger White and Black populations (with Whites having higher prevalence than Blacks), lower counts in zip codes with higher Hispanic populations (compared to non-Hispanics), and higher prevalence among women compared to men. Furthermore, zip codes with a larger population of elderly people (age ≥ 65 years) exhibited higher LC prevalence, consistent with established national patterns. Conclusions: This comprehensive analysis contributes to our understanding of the complex interplay of demographic and socioeconomic factors influencing LC disparities in VA at the zip code level, providing valuable information for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation. Implementation code is available at GitHub. Full article

Multiple Internet of Healthcare Things (IoHT)-based devices have been utilized as sensing methodologies for human locomotion decoding to aid in applications related to e-healthcare. Different measurement conditions affect the daily routine monitoring, including the sensor type, wearing style, data retrieval method, and processing model. Currently, several models are present in this domain that include a variety of techniques for pre-processing, descriptor extraction, and reduction, along with the classification of data captured from multiple sensors. However, such models consisting of multiple subject-based data using different techniques may degrade the accuracy rate of locomotion decoding. Therefore, this study proposes a deep neural network model that not only applies the state-of-the-art Quaternion-based filtration technique for motion and ambient data along with background subtraction and skeleton modeling for video-based data, but also learns important descriptors from novel graph-based representations and Gaussian Markov random-field mechanisms. Due to the non-linear nature of data, these descriptors are further utilized to extract the codebook via the Gaussian mixture regression model. Furthermore, the codebook is provided to the recurrent neural network to classify the activities for the locomotion-decoding system. We show the validity of the proposed model across two publicly available data sampling strategies, namely, the HWU-USP and LARa datasets. The proposed model is significantly improved over previous systems, as it achieved 82.22% and 82.50% for the HWU-USP and LARa datasets, respectively. The proposed IoHT-based locomotion-decoding model is useful for unobtrusive human activity recognition over extended periods in e-healthcare facilities. Full article

Conventional maximum likelihood-based algorithms for 3D Compton image reconstruction are often stuck with slow convergence and large data volume, which could be unsuitable for some practical applications, such as nuclear engineering. Taking advantage of the Bayesian framework, we propose a fast-converging iterative maximum a posteriori reconstruction algorithm under the assumption of the Poisson data model and Markov random field-based convex prior in this paper. The main originality resides in developing a new iterative maximization scheme with simultaneous updates following the line search strategy to bypass the spatial dependencies among neighboring voxels. Numerical experiments on real datasets conducted with hand-held Temporal Compton cameras developed by Damavan Imaging company and punctual 0.2 MBq ²²Na sources with zero-mean Gaussian Markov random field confirm the outperformance of the proposed maximum a posteriori algorithm over various existing expectation–maximization type solutions. Full article

The ability to sense airborne pollutants with mobile robots provides a valuable asset for domains such as industrial safety and environmental monitoring. Oftentimes, this involves detecting how certain gases are spread out in the environment, commonly referred to as a gas distribution map, to subsequently take actions that depend on the collected information. Since the majority of gas transducers require physical contact with the analyte to sense it, the generation of such a map usually involves slow and laborious data collection from all key locations. In this regard, this paper proposes an efficient exploration algorithm for 2D gas distribution mapping with an autonomous mobile robot. Our proposal combines a Gaussian Markov random field estimator based on gas and wind flow measurements, devised for very sparse sample sizes and indoor environments, with a partially observable Markov decision process to close the robot’s control loop. The advantage of this approach is that the gas map is not only continuously updated, but can also be leveraged to choose the next location based on how much information it provides. The exploration consequently adapts to how the gas is distributed during run time, leading to an efficient sampling path and, in turn, a complete gas map with a relatively low number of measurements. Furthermore, it also accounts for wind currents in the environment, which improves the reliability of the final gas map even in the presence of obstacles or when the gas distribution diverges from an ideal gas plume. Finally, we report various simulation experiments to evaluate our proposal against a computer-generated fluid dynamics ground truth, as well as physical experiments in a wind tunnel. Full article

As far as the knowledge of the seabed is concerned, both for safe navigation and for scientific research, 3D models, particularly digital bathymetric models (DBMs), are nowadays of fundamental importance. This work aimed to evaluate the quality of DBMs according to the interpolation methods applied to obtain grid format 3D surfaces from scattered sample points. Other complementary factors affecting DBM vertical accuracy, such as seabed morphological complexity and surveyed points sampling density, were also analyzed by using a factorial ANOVA experimental design. The experiments were performed on a multibeam dataset provided by the Italian Navy Hydrographic Institute (IIM) with an original resolution of 1 m × 1 m grid spacing, covering a surface of 0.24 km². Six different sectors comprising different seabed morphologies were investigated. Eight sampling densities were randomly extracted from every sector, each with four repetitions. Finally, four different interpolation methods were tested, including: radial basis multiquadric function (RBMF), ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK) and Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF). The results demonstrated that both RBMF and OK produced very accurate DBM in areas characterized by low levels of seabed ruggedness at sampling densities of only 0.0128 points/m² (equivalent grid spacing of 8.84 m). In contrast, a higher density of 0.1024 points/m² (3.13 m grid spacing) was required to produce accurate DBM in areas with more complex seabed topography. On the other hand, UK and GMRF were strongly influenced by morphology and sampling density, yielding higher vertical random errors and more prone to slightly overestimate seabed depths. In addition, sampling density and morphology were the factors that most influenced the vertical accuracy of the interpolated DBM. In this sense, the highly statistically significant influence of the interaction between sampling density and morphology on the vertical accuracy of the interpolated DBM confirms the need to perform a preliminary analysis of seabed morphological complexity in order to increase, if necessary, the number of surveyed points in cases of complex morphologies. Full article

Resource utilization strategies of avian migrants are a major concern for conservation and management. Understanding seasonal habitat selection by migratory birds helps us explain the ongoing continental declines of migratory bird populations. Our objective was to compare the second-order and third-order habitat selection by the American White Pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos; hereafter pelican) between the breeding and non-breeding grounds. We tested the Lack hypothesis that habitat selection by migratory birds is stronger on the breeding grounds than on the non-breeding grounds. We used random-effect Dirichlet-multinomial models to estimate the second-order habitat selection between the seasons with the GPS locations of 32 tracked pelicans. We used Gaussian Markov random field models to estimate the third-order habitat selection by pelicans at the breeding and non-breeding grounds, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Pelicans strongly selected waterbodies and wetlands at both non-breeding and breeding grounds, tracking their foraging habitats between the seasons at the home range level. However, pelicans exhibited seasonal differences in the strength of the third-order selection of wetlands and waterbodies with foraging habitat selection being stronger at the breeding grounds than at the non-breeding grounds, supporting the Lack hypothesis. Full article

In this paper, we propose a structured additive regression (STAR) model for modeling the occurrence of a disease in fields or nurseries. The methodological approach involves a Gaussian field (GF) affected by a spatial process represented by an approximation to a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF). This modeling allows the building of maps with prediction probabilities regarding the presence of a disease in plants using Bayesian kriging. The advantage of this modeling is its computational benefit when compared with known spatial hierarchical models and with the Bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Inference through the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach facilitates the handling of large datasets in excellent computation times. Our approach allows the evaluation of different sampling strategies, from which we obtain inferences and prediction maps with similar behaviour to those obtained when we consider all subjects in the study population. The analysis of the different sampling strategies allows us to recognize the relevance of spatial components in the studied phenomenon. We demonstrate how Bayesian kriging can incorporate sources of uncertainty associated with the prediction parameters, which leads to more realistic and accurate estimation of the uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology with samplings of Citrus macrophylla affected by the tristeza virus (CTV) grown in a nursery. Full article

Determining spatial links between disease risk and socio-demographic characteristics is vital in disease management and policymaking. However, data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneity across host classes and space epidemic processes. This study aims to implement a spatially varying coefficient (SVC) model to account for non-stationarity in the effect of covariates. Using the South Africa general household survey, we study the provincial variation of people living with diabetes and hypertension risk through the SVC model. The people living with diabetes and hypertension risk are modeled using a logistic model that includes spatially unstructured and spatially structured random effects. Spatial smoothness priors for the spatially structured component are employed in modeling, namely, a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF), a second-order random walk (RW2), and a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. The SVC model is used to relax the stationarity assumption in which non-linear effects of age are captured through the RW2 and allow the mean effect to vary spatially using a CAR model. Results highlight a non-linear relationship between age and people living with diabetes and hypertension. The SVC models outperform the stationary models. The results suggest significant provincial differences, and the maps provided can guide policymakers in carefully exploiting the available resources for more cost-effective interventions. Full article