Search Results (420)

This paper examines the changing role of emissions trading systems (ETSs) within the macro-financial framework of energy markets, emphasizing price dynamics and systemic spillovers. Utilizing monthly data from seven ETS jurisdictions spanning January 2021 to December 2024 (N = 287 observations after log transformation and first differencing), which includes four auction-based markets (United States, Canada, United Kingdom, South Korea), two secondary markets (China, New Zealand), and a government-set fixed-price scheme (Germany), this research estimates a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) employing a Common Correlated Effects (CCE) model and augments it with machine learning analysis utilizing XGBoost and explainable AI methodologies. The PVAR-CEE reveals numerous unexpected findings related to carbon markets: ETS returns exhibit persistence with an autoregressive coefficient of −0.137 after a four-month lag, while increasing inflation results in rising ETS after the same period. Furthermore, ETSs generate spillover effects in the real economy, as elevated ETSs today forecast a 0.125-point reduction in unemployment one month later and a 0.0173 increase in inflation after two months. Impulse response analysis indicates that exogenous shocks, including Brent oil prices, policy uncertainty, and financial volatility, are swiftly assimilated by ETS pricing, with effects dissipating completely within three to eight months. XGBoost models ascertain that policy uncertainty and Brent oil prices are the most significant predictors of one-month-ahead ETSs, whereas ESG factors are relevant only beyond certain thresholds and in conditions of low policy uncertainty. These findings establish ETS markets as dynamic transmitters of macroeconomic signals, influencing energy management, labor changes, and sustainable finance under carbon pricing frameworks. Full article

Against the backdrop of China’s fast-growing digital economy and its financial inclusion agenda, there is still little city-level evidence on whether the e-CNY pilot accelerates financial deepening at the grassroots. Using a balanced panel of 271 prefecture-and-above cities for 2016–2022, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (SDID) design augmented by the synthetic control method (SCM) to rigorously identify the policy effect of the e-CNY pilot. The results show that the pilot program significantly improves urban financial inclusion, contributing to more equitable access to financial services and supporting inclusive socio-economic development. Mechanism analysis suggests that the effect operates mainly through two channels, a merchant-coverage channel and a transaction-scale channel, with the former contributing the majority of the overall effect. Incorporating a migration-based mobility index shows that most studies’ focus on the merchant-coverage effect is amplified in cities under tight mobility restrictions but wanes where commercial networks are already saturated, whereas the transaction-scale channel is largely insensitive to mobility shocks. Heterogeneity tests further indicate stronger gains in non-provincial capital cities and in the eastern and central regions. Overall, the study uncovers a “penetration-inclusion” network logic and provides policy insights for advancing sustainable financial inclusion through optimized terminal deployment, merchant incentives, and diversified scenario design. Full article

Solid propellant grain, as a typical polymer, are the thrust generation devices and core load-bearing components of solid rocket motor (SRM) and are also known as SRM grain. They are constantly exposed to extreme service environments such as high temperatures, high pressures, and dynamic shocks, and have a relatively high failure rate in the field use of SRM. Its life and reliability are the shortcomings that restrict the improvement of weapons and equipment capability in China at present. This paper summarizes the typical fault types of SRM grain at present, and compares and analyzes the research progress of reliability design and analysis technology, reliability optimization technology, life test technology and reliability evaluation technology of SRM grain at home and abroad; This paper analyzes the deficiencies and reasons in the research and application of SRM grain reliability technology in China, and points out the technical difficulties and challenges faced by the integrated design of performance and reliability of SRM independent innovation design according to the needs of the forward research and development system of SRM. Based on the existing design level and industrial foundation in China, the basic research suggestions that should be carried out to consolidate the design ability of SRM grain in China are given. Full article

China’s timber market is very complex and heterogeneous, and is experiencing the impact of the construction of national reserve forests and the downturn in the real estate sector. By setting up a partial equilibrium model which reflects the heterogeneity of China’s wood market, not only difference among domestic timber groups can be identified, but the dissimilarity of imported timber can also be differentiated from the aspects of species and sources. This model is capable of capturing the effects of macroeconomic conditions, forestry sector policies, and trade cost variations on China’s timber market structure. According to simulations of supply shocks, China’s large-diameter log capacity enhancement will have a noticeable crowding-out effect on imported timber, suggesting the diameter of logs is an important factor for market entities to make trade-offs between domestic and imported timber. Amidst both supply and demand shocks, the equilibrium quantity changes in China’s domestic small-diameter logs and imported timber are dominated by demand shocks, whereas the equilibrium quantity change in China’s domestic large-diameter logs is dominated by supply shocks; moreover, only domestic large-diameter logs realize quantity increase in double shocks; this improves China’s domestic timber supply structure, and is a good example of “opportunities in crisis” in the face of negative demand shocks. Full article

Hydrogen is being increasingly integrated into the international trade system as a clean and flexible energy carrier, motivated by the global energy transition and carbon neutrality objectives. The rapid expansion of the global hydrogen trade network has simultaneously exposed several sustainability challenges, including a centralized structure, overdependence on key countries, and limited resilience to external disruptions. Based on this, we develop a risk propagation model that incorporates the absorption capacity of nodes to simulate the propagation of supply shortage risks within the global hydrogen trade network. Furthermore, we propose a composite sustainability index constructed from structural, economic, and environmental resilience indicators, enabling a systematic assessment of the network’s sustainable development capacity under external shock scenarios. Findings indicate the following: (1) The global hydrogen trade network is undergoing a structural shift from a Western Europe-dominated unipolar configuration to a more polycentric pattern. Countries such as China and Singapore are emerging as key hubs linking Eurasian regions, with trade relationships among nations becoming increasingly dense and diversified. (2) Although supply shortage shocks trigger structural disturbances, economic losses, and risks of carbon rebound, their impacts are largely concentrated in a limited number of hub countries, with relatively limited disruption to the overall sustainability of the system. (3) Countries exhibit significant heterogeneity in structural, economic, and environmental resilience. Risk propagation demonstrates an uneven pattern characterized by hub-induced disruptions, chain-like transmission, and localized clustering. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed, including the establishment of a polycentric coordination mechanism, the enhancement of regional emergency coordination mechanisms, and the advancement of differentiated capacity-building efforts. Full article

The intensifying global competition for cobalt resources and the increasing likelihood of trade decoupling and disruption are profoundly impacting the global energy transition. In a globalized trade environment, a decline in cobalt supply from exporting countries can spread through the trade network, negatively affecting demand countries. Quantitative analysis of the negative impacts of export supply declines in various countries can help identify early risks in the global supply chain, providing a scientific basis for energy security, industrial development, and policy responses. This study constructs a trade network using trade data on metal cobalt, cobalt powder, cobalt concentrate, and ore sand from the upstream (mining, selection, and smelting) stages of the cobalt industry chain across 155 countries and regions from 2000 to 2023. Based on this, an impact diffusion model is established, incorporating the trade volumes and production levels of cobalt resources in each country to measure their resilience to shocks and determine their direct or indirect dependencies. The study then simulates the impact on countries (regions) when each country’s supply is completely interrupted or reduced by 50%. The results show that: (1) The global cobalt trade network exhibits a ‘one superpower, multiple strong players’ characteristic. Congo (DRC) has a far greater destructive power than other countries, while South Africa, Zambia, Australia, Russia, and other countries have higher destructive power due to their strong storage and production capabilities, strong smelting capabilities, or as important trade transit countries. (2) The global cobalt trade network primarily consists of three major risk areas. The African continent, the Philippines and Indonesia in Southeast Asia, Australia in Oceania, and Russia, the United States, China, and the United Kingdom in Eurasia and North America form the primary risk zones for global cobalt trade. (3) When there is a complete disruption or a 50% reduction in export supply, China will suffer the greatest average demand loss, far exceeding the second-tier countries such as the United States, South Africa, and Zambia. In contrast, European countries and other regions worldwide will experience the smallest average demand loss. Full article

Background/Objectives: Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis), the most widely distributed bamboo species in China, is valued for both its shoots and timber. This species often faces challenges from high-temperature stress. To cope with this stress, Moso bamboo has evolved various adaptive mechanisms at the physiological and molecular levels. Although numerous studies have revealed that a large number of transcription factors (TFs) and genes play important roles in the regulatory network of plant heat stress responses, the regulatory network involved in heat responses remains incompletely understood. Methods: In this study, Moso bamboo was placed in a high-temperature environment of 42 °C for 1 h and 24 h, and transcriptome sequencing was carried out to accurately identify key molecules affected by high temperature and their related biological pathways. Results: Through a differential expression analysis, we successfully identified a series of key candidate genes and transcription factors involved in heat stress responses, including members of the ethylene response factor, HSF, WRKY, MYB, and bHLH families. Notably, in addition to traditional heat shock proteins/factors, multiple genes related to lipid metabolism, antioxidant enzymes, dehydration responses, and hormone signal transduction were found to play significant roles in heat stress responses. To further verify the changes in the expression of these genes, we used qRT-PCR technology for detection, and the results strongly supported their key roles in cellular physiological processes and heat stress responses. Conclusions: This study not only deepens our understanding of plant strategies for coping with and defending against extreme abiotic stresses but also provides valuable insights for future research on heat tolerance in Moso bamboo and other plants. Full article

Grass carp is an economically important cultured species in China. Triploid embryo production is widely applied in aquaculture to achieve reproductive sterility, improve somatic growth, and reduce ecological risks associated with uncontrolled breeding. In this study, a simple cold shock method for inducing triploid grass carp was developed. The triploid induction rate of 71.73 ± 5.00% was achieved by applying a cold treatment at 4 °C for 12 min, starting 2 min after artificial fertilization. Flow cytometry and karyotype analysis revealed that triploid individuals exhibited a 1.5-fold increase in DNA content compared to diploid counterparts, with a chromosomal composition of 3n = 72 (33m + 36sm + 3st). Additionally, embryonic transcriptome analysis demonstrated that, in the cold shock-induced embryos, genes associated with abnormal mesoderm and dorsal–ventral axis formation, zygotic genome activation (ZGA), and anti-apoptosis were downregulated, whereas pro-apoptotic genes were upregulated, which may contribute to the higher abnormal mortality observed during embryonic development. Overall, this study demonstrates optimized conditions for inducing triploidy in grass carp via cold shock and provides insights into the transcriptomic changes that take place in cold shock-induced embryos, which could inform future grass carp genetic breeding programs. Full article

Prior research often portrays Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) as a coercive institutional force compelling firms to passively conform for legitimacy. More recent studies, however, suggest firms actively pursue CSR to gain sustainable competitive advantages. Yet, how and when CSR buffers firms against adverse shocks of crises remains insufficiently understood. This study addresses this gap by using multiple regression analysis to examine the buffering effects of CSR investments during the COVID-19 crisis, which severely disrupted capital markets and firm valuation. Drawing on signaling theory and CSR literature, we analyze the stock market performance of China’s A-share listed firms using a sample of 2577 observations as of the end of 2019. Results indicate that firms with higher CSR investments experienced significantly greater cumulative abnormal returns during the pandemic. Moreover, the buffering effect is amplified among firms with higher debt burdens, greater financing constraints, and those operating in regions with stronger social trust and more severe COVID-19 impact. These findings are robust across multiple robustness checks. This study highlights the strategic value of CSR as a resilience mechanism during crises and supports a more proactive view of CSR engagement for sustainable development, complementing the traditional legitimacy-focused perspective in existing literature. Full article

The contagious COVID-19 disease not only brought about a global health crisis but also a disruption in the global economy. The uncertainty levels regarding the impact of the disease increased volatility. This study analyses stock market volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of South Africa (SA) with that of the United States of America (USA) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to analyse volatility spillovers from a developed market (USA) to emerging markets (BRIC countries) and also to examine the causality between EPU and stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. By employing the GARCH-in-Mean model from a sample of daily returns of national equity market indices from 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2022, SA and China are shown to be the most volatile during the pandemic. By using the diagonal Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK) model to analyse spillover effects, evidence of spillover effects from the US to the emerging countries is small but statistically significant, with SA showing the strongest impact from US market shocks. From the Granger causality test, Brazil’s and India’s equity markets are shown to be highly sensitive to changes in EPU relative to the other countries. Full article

In this article, daily CO₂ emissions for the years 2019–2022 are examined using fractional integration for Brazil, China, EU-27 (and the UK), India, and the USA. According to the findings, all series exhibit long memory mean-reversion tendencies, with orders of integration ranging between 0.22 in the case of India (with white noise errors) and 0.70 for Brazil (under autocorrelated disturbances). Nevertheless, the differencing parameter estimates are all considerably below 1, which supports the theory of mean reversion and transient shocks. These results suggest the need for a greater intensification of green policies complemented with economic structural reforms to achieve the zero-emissions target by 2050. Full article

This study employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian estimation to rigorously evaluate China’s macroeconomic responses to cost-push, monetary policy, and foreign income shocks. This analysis leverages quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, focusing on critical variables such as the output gap, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, consumption, investment, and employment. The results demonstrate significant social welfare losses primarily arising from persistent inflation and output volatility due to domestic structural rigidities and global market dependencies. Monetary policy interventions effectively moderate short-term volatility but induce welfare costs if overly restrictive. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted structural reforms to enhance economic flexibility, balanced monetary policy to mitigate aggressive interventions, and diversified economic strategies to reduce external vulnerability. These insights contribute novel policy perspectives for enhancing China’s macroeconomic stability and resilience. Full article

The agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel data of RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2000 to 2023, combining social network analysis (SNA) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The results show the following: (1) The RCEP agricultural products trade network presents a “core-edge” hierarchical structure, with China as the core hub to drive regional resource integration and ASEAN countries developing into secondary core nodes to deepen collaborative dependence. (2) The “China-ASEAN-Japan-Korea “riangle trade structure is formed under the RCEP framework, and the network has the characteristics of a “small world”. The leading mode of South–South trade promotes the regional economic order to shift from the traditional vertical division of labor to multiple coordination. (3) The evolution of trade network system is driven by multiple factors: endogenous reciprocity and network expansion are the core structural driving forces; synergistic optimization of supply and demand matching between economic and financial development to promote system upgrading; geographical proximity and cultural convergence effectively reduce transaction costs and enhance system connectivity, but geographical distance is still the key system constraint that restricts the integration of marginal countries. This study provides a systematic and scientific analytical framework for understanding the resilience mechanism and structural evolution of regional agricultural trade networks under global shocks. Full article

The scientific measurement of corporate resilience is a prerequisite for identifying risk vulnerabilities, formulating targeted support policies, and enhancing the stability of the economic system. This paper utilizes data from 2054 listed companies on China’s A-share market from 2007 to 2023 to construct a corporate resilience evaluation system integrating three dimensions: risk resistance, adaptive adjustment, and recovery growth. Using a multi-level dynamic factor analysis, it depicts the multi-dimensional structure of resilience while introducing time series dynamic changes. This study found that corporate resilience has shown a steady upward trend overall, with phased fluctuations before and after major crisis events, which is highly consistent with macro- and microeconomic indicators. And fluctuations are primarily concentrated among low-resilience enterprises. The further analysis of low-resilience enterprises revealed the following: At the industrial level, compared with the primary industry, the secondary and tertiary industries have a higher proportion of low-resilience enterprises. At the regional level, the proportion of low-resilience enterprises in eastern and central regions decreased during shocks, while western regions showed a significant divergence, and northeastern regions consistently underperformed. This study offers empirical evidence and management insights for strengthening corporate resilience and enhancing the resilience of China’s economy. It also offers valuable insights for other countries in addressing external uncertainties and building economic resilience. Full article

The spotted longbarbel catfish, Hemibagrus guttatus, a nationally protected Class II species in China, faces increasing threats from habitat degradation. Recently, the spotted longbarbel catfish has gained attention as a promising aquaculture species, not only for its premium flesh quality but also for its potential role in conservation through sustainable captive breeding programs. Ammonia nitrogen (ammonia-N) is a ubiquitous byproduct of intensive farming and serves as the primary environmental stressor confronting aquatic species. Elucidating the ammonia-N tolerance of spotted longbarbel catfish constitutes a critical prerequisite for its successful domestication, which is the aim of this study. We demonstrate that ammonia-N stress significantly decreases the survival rate of spotted longbarbel catfish and induces tissue damage, including gill lamella proliferation, hepatocyte blurring, and renal necrosis. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that ammonia-N stress promotes the expression of genes related to endoplasmic reticulum stress, heat-shock proteins, immune response, and apoptosis, while inhibiting antioxidant-related genes and Wnt-related genes. Enzymatic assays indicate that ammonia-N stress inhibits the activities of multiple antioxidant enzymes, including SOD, CAT, GSH, GSH-Px, and T-AOC. Microbiome analysis showed that ammonia-N stress altered the intestinal microbial community by increasing harmful bacteria (e.g., Vibrio and Aeromonas) and suppressing beneficial bacteria (e.g., Cetobacterium and Lactococcus). These findings highlight the comprehensive negative impacts of ammonia-N on the health of the spotted longbarbel catfish and provide a theoretical basis for optimizing aquaculture conditions to support the sustainable protection and domestication of the spotted longbarbel catfish. Full article