Search Results (12)

Robust condition monitoring of wind turbine blades is essential for reducing downtime and maintenance costs, particularly under variable operating conditions. While recent studies suggest that combining trend monitoring (TM) with change point detection (CPD) can improve diagnostic performance, it remains unclear whether such integration is beneficial for all fault types. This study experimentally evaluates the integration of TM and CPD using vibration data from a laboratory-scale wind turbine for two representative blade faults: leading-edge erosion and twist misalignment. For the erosion case, discrete wavelet transform (DWT) energy features exhibit a clear and persistent increase in mid-frequency content, with energy deviations of approximately 34–45% relative to the healthy state. However, Bayesian Online Change Point Detection (BOCPD) does not reveal distinct change points, indicating that CPD provides limited additional value for gradual, steady-state degradation. In contrast, for twist misalignment, the short-time Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) features reveal dynamic spectral redistribution, and CPD applied to spectral centroid trends produces a sharp, localized detection signature. These results demonstrate that integrating TM with CPD significantly enhances fault detectability for dynamic, instability-driven faults, while TM alone is sufficient for smooth, steady-state degradation. This study provides an evidence-based guideline for selectively integrating CPD into wind turbine blade condition monitoring systems based on fault physics. Full article

Change points caused by extreme events in global economic markets have been widely studied in the literature. However, existing techniques to identify change points rely on subjective judgments and lack robust methodologies. The objective of this paper is to generalize a novel approach that leverages topological data analysis (TDA) to extract topological features from time series data using persistent homology. In this approach, we use Taken’s embedding and sliding window techniques to transform the initial time series data into a high-dimensional topological space. Then, in this topological space, persistent homology is used to extract topological features which can give important information related to change points. As a case study, we analyzed 26 stocks over the last 12 years by using this method and found that there were two financial market volatility indicators derived from our method, denoted as $L_1$ and $L_2$. They serve as effective indicators of long-term and short-term financial market fluctuations, respectively. Moreover, significant differences are observed across markets in different regions and sectors by using these indicators. By setting a significance threshold of 98 % for the two indicators, we found that the detected change points correspond exactly to four major financial extreme events in the past twelve years: the intensification of the European debt crisis in 2011, Brexit in 2016, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Furthermore, benchmark comparisons with established univariate and multivariate CPD methods confirm that the TDA-based indicators consistently achieve superior F1 scores across different tolerance windows, particularly in capturing widely recognized consensus events. Full article

Wind turbines face significant operational challenges due to their complex electromechanical systems, exposure to harsh environmental conditions, and high maintenance costs. Reliable structural health monitoring and condition monitoring are therefore essential for early fault detection, minimizing downtime, and optimizing maintenance strategies. Traditional approaches typically rely on either Trend Monitoring (TM) or Change Point Detection (CPD). TM methods track the long-term behaviour of process parameters, using statistical analysis or machine learning (ML) to identify abnormal patterns that may indicate emerging faults. In contrast, CPD techniques focus on detecting abrupt changes in time-series data, identifying shifts in mean, variance, or distribution, and providing accurate fault onset detection. While each approach has strengths, they also face limitations: TM effectively identifies fault type but lacks precision in timing, while CPD excels at locating fault occurrence but lacks detailed fault classification. This review critically examines the integration of TM and CPD methods for wind turbine diagnostics, highlighting their complementary strengths and weaknesses through an analysis of widely used TM techniques (e.g., Fast Fourier Transform, Wavelet Transform, Hilbert–Huang Transform, Empirical Mode Decomposition) and CPD methods (e.g., Bayesian Online Change Point Detection, Kullback–Leibler Divergence, Cumulative Sum). By combining both approaches, diagnostic accuracy can be enhanced, leveraging TM’s detailed fault characterization with CPD’s precise fault timing. The effectiveness of this synthesis is demonstrated in a case study on wind turbine blade fault diagnosis. Results shows that TM–CPD integration enhances early detection through coupling vibration and frequency trend analysis with robust statistical validation of fault onset. Full article

Nowadays, climate change is one of the significant threats humanity faces. Many researchers have documented its effects on water availability and vulnerable systems. This study examines the long-term precipitation record (1965–2019) from the Tulcea station, located just 4 km from the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR), to evaluate the impact of climate change on precipitation variability, which can significantly affect biodiversity in this protected area. We integrated change point detection (CPD), stationarity tests, trend analysis, and series decomposition to characterize shifts and patterns in the time series. The Lee & Heghinian test detected a change point (CP) in all data series, whereas the Hubert segmentation methods and Cumulative Sum Method (CUSUM) found fewer series that present at least a CP. The Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) indicated an increasing trend in the annual, monthly, and October precipitation series. The Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess STL decomposition found the highest seasonality indices in June and July. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) emphasizes a substantial difference in the seasonal cycle. The results indicate a high variability in the precipitation pattern, with periods of high precipitation followed by dry periods. Full article

Understanding long-term precipitation variability is essential for assessing the climate’s impact on sensitive ecosystems, particularly in regions of high environmental value, such as the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). This study examines the temporal dynamics of monthly precipitation in the Danube Delta, Romania, spanning the period from 1965 to 2019. Three approaches were used to analyze climatic variability: Change Point detection (CPD) to identify shifts in precipitation regimes, the De Martonne Index (I_M) to assess aridity trends, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to evaluate drought conditions across annual and monthly scales. Using robust monthly precipitation and temperature datasets from the Sulina meteorological station, CPD analysis revealed statistically significant structural breaks in precipitation trends, suggesting periods of altered climate behavior likely associated with broader regional or global climate changes. I_M values indicated mostly hyper-aridity and aridity at monthly and annual scales, respectively. No monotonic trend was found in this index during the analyzed segments, as emphasized by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. SPI values provided further evidence of variability in the precipitation regime, highlighting a transition toward more extreme hydrological conditions in the region. The combined use of these indices offers a comprehensive view of the evolution of climatic conditions in the Danube Delta. The findings underscore the growing vulnerability of this unique wetland ecosystem to climatic variability, supporting the need for adaptive water management strategies in the face of anticipated future changes. Full article

This study develops an integrated methodological approach for interpreting used oil analysis results in diesel engines, focusing on optimizing maintenance strategies. The methodology combines a literature review with a quantitative assessment of 156 lubricant analysis reports from a fleet of diesel waste collection trucks operating in Cuenca, Ecuador, a high-altitude city. The framework includes critical limits for key lubricant parameters, correlation analysis, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify dominant degradation mechanisms. The Binary Segmentation (BS) algorithm is also used for Change-Point Detection. The findings indicate four primary degradation pathways: thermal–chemical degradation influenced by sulfur, oxidation, and soot; metallic wear and base depletion, involving iron, chromium, and copper; external contamination linked to silica and copper; and viscosity alteration due to lubricant aging. Significant degradation shifts were identified at approximately 346 and 444 service hours, suggesting critical points for condition-based maintenance interventions. This study highlights the effectiveness of multivariate statistical tools in enhancing the interpretation of used oil analysis and optimizing predictive maintenance strategies. The integration of Change-Point Detection and multivariate analysis provides a robust framework for defining oil change intervals based on lubricant condition rather than fixed time- or mileage-based criteria. This approach offers practical benefits for fleet operations, enabling the reduction in operational costs, enhancing engine reliability, and minimizing the environmental impact of unnecessary lubricant changes. Full article

Change-point detection is a challenging problem that has a number of applications across various real-world domains. The primary objective of CPD is to identify specific time points where the underlying system undergoes transitions between different states, each characterized by its distinct data distribution. Precise identification of change points in time series omics data can provide insights into the dynamic and temporal characteristics inherent to complex biological systems. Many change-point detection methods have traditionally focused on the direct estimation of data distributions. However, these approaches become unrealistic in high-dimensional data analysis. Density ratio methods have emerged as promising approaches for change-point detection since estimating density ratios is easier than directly estimating individual densities. Nevertheless, the divergence measures used in these methods may suffer from numerical instability during computation. Additionally, the most popular $\alpha$-relative Pearson divergence cannot measure the dissimilarity between two distributions of data but a mixture of distributions. To overcome the limitations of existing density ratio-based methods, we propose a novel approach called the Pearson-like scaled-Bregman divergence-based (PLsBD) density ratio estimation method for change-point detection. Our theoretical studies derive an analytical expression for the Pearson-like scaled Bregman divergence using a mixture measure. We integrate the PLsBD with a kernel regression model and apply a random sampling strategy to identify change points in both synthetic data and real-world high-dimensional genomics data of Drosophila. Our PLsBD method demonstrates superior performance compared to many other change-point detection methods. Full article

Several papers have proven that advanced process controller (APC) systems can save more energy in the process than proportional-integral-differential (PID) controller systems. Therefore, implementing an APC system is ultimately beneficial for saving energy in the plant. In a typical APC system deployment, the APC model parameters are calculated from dynamic data intervals obtained through the plant test. However, depending on the proficiency of the APC engineer, the results of the plant test and the APC model parameters are implemented differently. To minimize the influence of the APC engineer and calculate universal APC model parameters, a technique is needed to obtain dynamic data without a plant test. In this study, we utilize time-series data from a real petrochemical plant to determine dynamic intervals and estimate APC model parameters, which have not been investigated in previous studies. This involves extracting the data of the dynamic intervals with the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) by utilizing statistical techniques such as pruned exact linear time, linear kernel, and radial basis function kernel of change-point detection (CPD). After that, we fix the hyper parameters at the minimum MAE value and estimate the APC model parameters by training with the data from the dynamic intervals. The estimated APC model parameters are applied to the APC program to compare the APC model fitting rate and verify the accuracy of the APC model parameters in the dynamic intervals obtained through CPD. The final validation of the model fitting rates demonstrates that the identification of the dynamic intervals and the estimation of the APC model parameters through CPD show high accuracy. We show that it is possible to estimate APC model parameters from dynamic intervals determined by CPD without a plant test. Full article

Detection of the changes in Multi-Functional Radar (MFR) work modes is a critical situation assessment task for Electronic Support Measure (ESM) systems. There are two major challenges that must be addressed: (i) The received radar pulse stream may contain multiple work mode segments of unknown number and duration, which makes the Change Point Detection (CPD) difficult. (ii) Modern MFRs can produce a variety of parameter-level (fine-grained) work modes with complex and flexible patterns, which are challenging to detect through traditional statistical methods and basic learning models. To address the challenges, a deep learning framework is proposed for fine-grained work mode CPD in this paper. First, the fine-grained MFR work mode model is established. Then, a multi-head attention-based bi-directional long short-term memory network is introduced to abstract high-order relationships between successive pulses. Finally, temporal features are adopted to predict the probability of each pulse being a change point. The framework further improves the label configuration and the loss function of training to mitigate the label sparsity problem effectively. The simulation results showed that compared with existing methods, the proposed framework effectively improves the CPD performance at parameter-level. Moreover, the F1-score was increased by 4.15% under hybrid non-ideal conditions. Full article

Given the increasing occurrence of deviant activities in online platforms, it is of paramount importance to develop methods and tools that allow in-depth analysis and understanding to then develop effective countermeasures. This work proposes a framework towards detecting statistically significant change points in terrorism-related time series, which may indicate the occurrence of events to be paid attention to. These change points may reflect changes in the attitude towards and/or engagement with terrorism-related activities and events, possibly signifying, for instance, an escalation in the radicalization process. In particular, the proposed framework involves: (i) classification of online textual data as terrorism- and hate speech-related, which can be considered as indicators of a potential criminal or terrorist activity; and (ii) change point analysis in the time series generated by these data. The use of change point detection (CPD) algorithms in the produced time series of the aforementioned indicators—either in a univariate or two-dimensional case—can lead to the estimation of statistically significant changes in their structural behavior at certain time locations. To evaluate the proposed framework, we apply it on a publicly available dataset related to jihadist forums. Finally, topic detection on the estimated change points is implemented to further assess its effectiveness. Full article

Trends and underlying patterns should be identified in the timely distribution of road traffic offenses to increase traffic safety. In this study, a time series analysis was used to study the incidence rate of road traffic violations on Iranian rural roads. Road traffic volume and offenses data from March 2011 to October 2019 were aggregated. Interrupted time series were used to evaluate the impact of increasing fuel cost in June of 2013 and July of 2014 and the currency devaluation of Rial vs. US dollars in July of 2017 on trends and patterns, traffic volume, and number of offenses. A change-point detection (CPD) analysis was also used to identify singular changes in the frequency of traffic offenses. Results show a general decline in the number of overtaking and speeding offenses of −24.31% and −13.23%, respectively, due to the first increase in fuel cost. The second increase only reduced overtaking by 20.97%. In addition, Iran’s currency devaluation reduced the number of overtaking offenses by 26.39%. Modeling a change-point detection and a Mann-Kendall Test of traffic offenses in Iran, it was found that the burden of violations was reduced. Full article

A global uncertainty environment, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has affected the manufacturing industry severely in terms of supply and demand balancing. So, it is common that one stage statistical process control (SPC) chart affects the next-stage SPC chart. It is our research objective to consider a conditional case for the multi-stage multivariate change point detection (CPD) model for highly correlated multivariate data via copula conditional distributions with principal component analysis (PCA) and functional PCA (FPCA). First of all, we review the current available multivariate CPD models, which are the energy test-based control chart (ETCC) and the nonparametric multivariate change point model (NPMVCP). We extend the current available CPD models to the conditional multi-stage multivariate CPD model via copula conditional distributions with PCA for linear normal multivariate data and FPCA for nonlinear non-normal multivariate data. Full article