Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Data Collection
1.2. Statistical Analysis
1.2.1. Time Series Modeling
Interrupted Time Series with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Sarima).
Additive Decomposition of Time Series
Multiple Change Point Detection (CPD)
Trend and Seasonal Tests
2. Results
3. Discussion
Limitations
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Output | Estimate | Monthly Average | S.E. | Z | p-value | Change | AIC d | BIC e | LB f | KS g | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Percent Level | 95%CI | |||||||||||
Volume (point 38th, 51st, 87th) | 278.12 | |||||||||||
Impact (I1 a) | 18.14 | 10.37 | 1.74 | 0.08 | 6.38 | [13.67,−0.91] | ||||||
Impact (I2 b) | 7.65 | 10.26 | 0.75 | 0.46 | 2.86 | [10.54,−4.82] | ||||||
Impact (I3 c) | 5.6 | 12.09 | 0.46 | 0.64 | 1.79 | [9.52,−5.94] | ||||||
Noise | (1,0,0)(0,0,1) | 937.78 | 956.22 | 0.06 | 0.9 | |||||||
Tailgating (point 38th, 51st, 87th) | 16322.54 | |||||||||||
Impact (I1) | 1.02 × 103 | 7.0 × 102 | 1.45 | 0.15 | 6.17 | [14.63,−2.3] | ||||||
Impact (I2) | 1.74 × 103 | 6.72 × 102 | 2.6 | 0.01 | 10.99 | [19.47,2.5] | ||||||
Impact (I3) | −1.65 × 103 | 8.49 × 102 | −1.94 | 0.05 | −9.68 | [0.28,−19.65] | ||||||
Noise | (1,0,1)(1,0,0) | 1727.58 | 1748.66 | 0.7 | 0.96 | |||||||
Overtaking (point 38th, 51st, 87th) | 887.41 | |||||||||||
Impact (I1) | −185.26 | 79.23 | −2.34 | 0.019 | −24.31 | [−3.52,−45.11] | ||||||
Impact (I2) | −241.57 | 78.99 | −3.06 | 0.00 | −20.97 | [−7.26,−34.69] | ||||||
Impact (I3) | −154.93 | 72.28 | −2.14 | 0.03 | −26.39 | [−1.77,−51.01] | ||||||
Noise | (0,0,2)(0,0,0) | 1327.91 | 1346.36 | 0.07 | 0.94 | |||||||
Speeding (point 34th, 51st, 87th) | 9632.55 | |||||||||||
Impact (I1) | −1.2755 × 103 | 4.52 × 102 | −2.83 | 0.01 | −13.23 | [−3.85,−22.61] | ||||||
Impact (I2) | 1.2343 × 103 | 4.57 × 102 | 2.70 | 0.01 | 11.72 | [20.4,3.04] | ||||||
Impact (I3) | 6.4394 × 102 | 5.27 × 102 | 1.22 | 0.22 | 8.83 | [23.28,−5.62] | ||||||
Noise | (1,0,0)(1,1,0) | 1427.64 | 1442.7 | 0.18 | 0.96 |
Test | Description | p Value | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Volume | Tailgating | Overtaking | Speeding | ||
Bartels Test | Null hypothesis: Randomness | 1.31 × 10−12 | 6.79 × 10−13 | <2.2 × 10−16 | <2.2 × 10−16 |
Nonparametric Cox and Stuart Trend Test | Null hypothesis: Monotonic test | 1.19 × 10−5 | 9.16 × 10−9 | 1.15 × 10−9 | 1.15 × 10−9 |
Nonparametric Wallis and Moore Phase-Frequency Test | Null hypothesis: Randomness | 1.54 × 10−5 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 4.91 × 10−7 |
Nonparametric Wald-Wolfowitz Test | Null hypothesis: Independence and Stationarity | 9.11 × 10−12 | 8.22 × 10−12 | <2.2 × 10−16 | <2.2 × 10−16 |
Kruskall Wallis Test | Null hypothesis: Seasonality | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Q.S. Test | Null hypothesis: Seasonality | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 |
Webel-Ollech Overall Seasonality Test | Null hypothesis: Seasonality | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 |
Mann-Kendall Test | Before | After | Before | After | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Volume (70th point) | tau | 0.21 | 0.13 | - | - |
two-sided p value | 0.01 | 0.29 | - | - | |
Tailgating (35th and 83rd points) | tau | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.59 |
two-sided p value | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.01 | |
Overtaking (23rd and 61st points) | tau | −0.44 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.37 |
two-sided p value | 0.00 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.00 | |
Speeding (33rd point and 71st points) | tau | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.16 | −0.49 |
two-sided p value | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 8.7 × 10−5 |
Region | Algorithm Methods | Change Point Locations | Location and Most Important Events |
---|---|---|---|
Volume (per Camera/per 100,000 People) | e.cp3o | 24, 30, 36, 42, 71 | 36th point: Near to increased fuel cost 59th point: Near to increased traffic fines |
e.divisive | 24, 30, 72, 104 | ||
ks.cp3o | 24, 30, 36, 71 | ||
lanzante.test | 59 | ||
pettitt.test | 59 | ||
Tailgating (per 100,000 Volume) | e.cp3o | 35, 66, 75 | 35th point: Near to increased fuel cost |
e.divisive | 36, 75, 104 | ||
ks.cp3o | 12, 18, 35 | ||
lanzante.test | 39 | ||
pettitt.test | 39 | ||
Overtaking (per 100,000 Volume) | e.cp3o | 13, 35, 44, 52, 66 | 35th point: Near to increased fuel cost 60th point: increased traffic fines |
e.divisive | 13, 35, 44, 53, 65, 71, 104 | ||
ks.cp3o | 35, 67, 90, 98 | ||
lanzante.test | 60 | ||
pettitt.test | 60 | ||
Speeding (per 100,000 volume) | e.cp3o | 7, 16, 27, 71 | 34th point: Near to increased fuel cost 69th point: Near to increased traffic fines |
e.divisive | 7, 18, 28, 34, 43, 54, 60, 72, 80, 104 | ||
ks.cp3o | 16, 34 | ||
Lanzante.test | 69 | ||
Pettitt.test | 69 |
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Delavary, M.; Ghayeninezhad, Z.; Lavallière, M. Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019. Safety 2020, 6, 49. https://doi.org/10.3390/safety6040049
Delavary M, Ghayeninezhad Z, Lavallière M. Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019. Safety. 2020; 6(4):49. https://doi.org/10.3390/safety6040049
Chicago/Turabian StyleDelavary, Milad, Zahra Ghayeninezhad, and Martin Lavallière. 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of Increased Fuel Cost and Iran’s Currency Devaluation on Road Traffic Volume and Offenses in Iran, 2011–2019" Safety 6, no. 4: 49. https://doi.org/10.3390/safety6040049