Search Results (52)

The reduction in and irregularity of spring precipitation in Iberian latitudes over the past few decades are well-documented. This study analyses the behaviour of the accumulated series of monthly and annual spring precipitation for a broad section of the central-eastern part of the peninsula between Plasencia (Western Central System) and the south-eastern part of the Iberian System over the past 70 years. The area was chosen in accordance with the layout of the mountain systems and watersheds that cross the Iberian Peninsula from the west to east. Ten-year series and trends in the precipitation values accumulated between 1951 and 2020 provided by the AEMET were analysed together with their relationship with the pressure values for the same dates modelled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The totals obtained show an increasing weight regarding spring precipitation for the eastern sector (40–44%) and a gradual reduction in the west (30%). These percentages show the positive trend of the ten-year values for the easternmost sector. Spring precipitation increases are observed in the easternmost areas (7 mm/decade), while the central and western sectors generally show declining values (−35 mm/decade). The atmospheric pressure at height (Z500) and surface level (Z1000) were analysed together with their relationship with accumulated precipitation, revealing a clear trend of a dominance of high pressures in Z500. Full article

Total electron scattering cross sections (TCSs), in the energy range of 1–100 eV, have been measured with a high-resolution magnetically confined electron transmission apparatus, with total uncertainty limits estimated to be within ±5%. No previous experimental TCS data have been found for comparison. Electron attachment resonances, corresponding to transient negative ion formation, have been identified for energies below 20 eV by analyzing their contribution to the measured local maxima of the TCSs. Most of these resonances were observed for the first time. By means of our screening-corrected additivity rule (including interference effects) calculation method (IAM-SCAR + I), we extended TCS values to up to 1000 eV. This method also provides integral elastic, electronic excitation, and ionization cross sections for impact energies above 20 eV with total uncertainties of about ±10%. Comparisons, where possible, of the present electron scattering values with other values available in the literature are given. Full article

The COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network has become a reliable source of high-quality ground-based remote sensing network data that provide column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (XCO₂), methane (XCH₄), and carbon monoxide (XCO). The fiducial reference measurements of these gases from the COCCON complement the TCCON and NDACC-IRWG data. This study shows the application of COCCON data for the validation of existing greenhouse gas satellite products. This study includes the validation of XCH₄ and XCO products from the European Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) mission, XCO₂ products from the American Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission, and XCO₂ and XCH₄ products from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). A total of 27 datasets contributed to this study; some of these were collected in the framework of campaign activities and covered only a short time period. In addition, several permanent stations provided long-term observations. The random uncertainties in the validation results, specifically for S5P with a lot of coincidences pairs, are found to be similar to the comparison with the TCCON. The comparison results of OCO-2 land nadir and land glint observation modes to the COCCON on a global scale, despite limited coincidences, are very promising. The stations can, therefore, expand on the coverage of the already existing ground-based reference remote sensing sites from the TCCON and the NDACC network. The COCCON data can be used for future satellite and model validation studies and carbon cycle studies. Full article

Citrus cultivation represents one of the major economic pillars of the Valencian Community (Spain). Frost events pose a significant threat to these plantations, resulting in substantial economic losses. This study aims to assess the frequency and intensity of frost occurrences in the region from 2004 to 2023, using Meteosat Second Generation satellite imagery. These images provide daily land surface temperature data at 15 min intervals. Frost days were defined as those when temperatures fell below −2.3 °C, the threshold at which orange fruits become susceptible to damage, with different temperature thresholds applied to estimate varying levels of crop damage. Frost duration was also analyzed to classify event intensity and its potential impact on citrus crops. Annual comparisons revealed a decline in both the severity and frequency of frosts, particularly in cases of “moderate” and “intense” damage, supporting forecasts of increased regional aridity and suggesting new opportunities for expanding citrus cultivation to higher altitudes. When compared with farmers’ records, this study’s methodology proves effective in assessing frost impact and offers potential use for winter crop insurance. Validation was conducted using in situ data from the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMET). Full article

The aim of this technical note is to describe the Cycle 46 reference configuration of the HARMONIE-AROME convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. HARMONIE-AROME is one of the canonical system configurations that is developed, maintained, and validated in the ACCORD consortium, a collaboration of 26 countries in Europe and northern Africa on short-range mesoscale numerical weather prediction. This technical note describes updates to the physical parametrizations, both upper-air and surface, configuration choices such as lateral boundary conditions, model levels, horizontal resolution, model time step, and databases associated with the model, such as for physiography and aerosols. Much of the physics developments are related to improving the representation of clouds in the model, including developments in the turbulence, shallow convection, and statistical cloud scheme, as well as changes in radiation and cloud microphysics concerning cloud droplet number concentration and longwave cloud liquid optical properties. Near real-time aerosols and the ICE-T microphysics scheme, which improves the representation of supercooled liquid, and a wind farm parametrization have been added as options. Surface-wise, one of the main advances is the implementation of the lake model FLake. An outlook on upcoming developments is also included. Full article

The present work proposes a new model based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) to retrieve solar shortwave (SW) irradiance via the estimation of the cloud modification factor (CMF) from daytime sky images captured by all-sky cameras; this model is named CNN-CMF. To this end, a total of 237,669 sky images paired with SW irradiance measurements obtained by using pyranometers were selected at the following three sites: Valladolid and Izaña, Spain, and Lindenberg, Germany. This dataset was randomly split into training and testing sets, with the latter excluded from the training model in order to validate it using the same locations. Subsequently, the test dataset was compared with the corresponding SW irradiance measurements obtained by the pyranometers in scatter density plots. The linear fit shows a high determination coefficient ($R^2$) of $0.99$. Statistical analyses based on the mean bias error (MBE) values and the standard deviation (SD) of the SW irradiance differences yield results close to $-2\%$ and $9\%$, respectively. The MBE indicates a slight underestimation of the CNN-CMF model compared to the measurement values. After its validation, model performance was evaluated at the Antarctic station of Marambio (Argentina), a location not used in the training process. A similar comparison between the model-predicted SW irradiance and pyranometer measurements yielded $R^2=0.95$, with an MBE of around $2\%$ and an SD of approximately $26\%$. Although the precision provided by the SD at the Marambio station is lower, the MBE shows that the model’s accuracy is similar to previous results but with a slight overestimation of the SW irradiance. Finally, the determination coefficient improved to $0.99$, and the MBE and SD are about $3\%$ and $11\%$, respectively, when the CNN-CMF model is used to estimate daily SW irradiation values. Full article

The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Infrared Working Group of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC-IRWG) are two ground-based networks that provide the retrieved concentrations of up to 30 atmospheric trace gases, using solar absorption spectrometry. Both networks provide reference measurements for the validation of satellites and models. TCCON concentrates on long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) for carbon cycle studies and validation. The number of sites is limited, and the geographical coverage is uneven, covering mainly Europe and the USA. A better distribution of stations is desired to improve the representativeness of the data for various atmospheric conditions and surface conditions and to cover a large latitudinal distribution. The two successive Fiducial Reference Measurements for Greenhouse Gases European Space Agency projects (FRM4GHG and FRM4GHG2) aim at the assessment of several low-cost portable instruments for precise measurements of GHGs to complement the existing ground-based sites. Several types of low spectral resolution Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers manufactured by Bruker, namely an EM27/SUN, a Vertex70, a fiber-coupled IRCube, and a Laser Heterodyne spectro-Radiometer (LHR) developed by UK Rutherford Appleton Laboratory are the participating instruments to achieve the Fiducial Reference Measurements (FRMs) status. Intensive side-by-side measurements were performed using all four instruments next to the Bruker IFS 125HR high spectral resolution FTIR, performing measurements in the NIR (TCCON configuration) and MIR (NDACC configuration) spectral range. The remote sensing measurements were complemented by AirCore launches, which provided in situ vertical profiles of target gases traceable to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reference scale. The results of the intercomparisons are shown and discussed. Except for the EM27/SUN, all other instruments, including the reference TCCON spectrometer, needed modifications during the campaign period. The EM27/SUN and the Vertex70 provided stable and precise measurements of the target gases during the campaign with quantified small biases. As part of the FRM4GHG project, one EM27/SUN is now used as a travel standard for the verification of column-integrated GHG measurements. The extension of the Vertex70 to the MIR provides the opportunity to retrieve additional concentrations of N₂O, CH₄, HCHO, and OCS. These MIR data products are comparable to the retrieval results from the high-resolution IFS 125HR spectrometer as operated by the NDACC. Our studies show the potential for such types of spectrometers to be used as a travel standard for the MIR species. An enclosure system with a compact solar tracker and meteorological station has been developed to house the low spectral resolution portable FTIR systems for performing solar absorption measurements. This helps the spectrometers to be mobile and enables autonomous operation, which will help to complement the TCCON and NDACC networks by extending the observational capabilities at new sites for the observation of GHGs and additional air quality gases. The development of the retrieval software allows comparable processing of the Vertex70 type of spectra as the EM27/SUN ones, therefore bringing them under the umbrella of the COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON). A self-assessment following the CEOS-FRM Maturity Matrix shows that the COCCON is able to provide GHG data products of FRM quality and can be used for either short-term campaigns or long-term measurements to complement the high-resolution FTIR networks. Full article

Climate change is a major issue in wastewater management at local and regional levels, as it affects the frequency of flooding and therefore the need to update infrastructure and design regulations. To this end, rainfall data are the main input to hydraulic models used for the design of drainage systems and, in advanced contexts, for their real-time monitoring. Field observations are of great interest and water authorities are increasing the number of existing rain gauges, but at present they are scarce and require maintenance, so their number needs to be considered with their O&M costs. Remote sensors, including both the existing satellite rain products (SRPs) and radar imagery (RI), can complete the spatial distribution of rainfall and optimise the cost of observations. While most SRPs are based on re-analysis and have a lag in availability, RI can be obtained in near real time and is becoming increasingly popular in weather forecasting applications. Unfortunately, actual rainfall forecasts from RI observations are not accurate enough for real-time monitoring of drainage systems. In this paper, the Colour Pattern Regression (CPR) algorithm is used to recalibrate the 6 h rainfall values from RI provided by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) with the observed rain gauge data, using as a case study the metropolitan area of Palma (Spain). Full article

Near real-time aerosol fields from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are configured for use in the HARMONIE-AROME Numerical Weather Prediction model. Aerosol mass mixing ratios from CAMS are introduced in the model through the first guess and lateral boundary conditions and are advected by the model dynamics. The cloud droplet number concentration is obtained from the aerosol fields and used by the microphysics and radiation schemes in the model. The results show an improvement in radiation, especially during desert dust events (differences of nearly 100 W/m² are obtained). There is also a change in precipitation patterns, with an increase in precipitation, mainly during heavy precipitation events. A reduction in spurious fog is also found. In addition, the use of the CAMS near real-time aerosols results in an improvement in global shortwave radiation forecasts when the clouds are thick due to an improved estimation of the cloud droplet number concentration. Full article

Temperature analysis is of special interest in polar areas because temperature is an essential variable in the energy exchange between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Although land surface temperature (LST) obtained using satellites and air temperature (T_a) have different physical meanings and are measured with different techniques, LST has often been successfully employed to estimate T_a. For this reason, in this work, we estimated T_a from LST MODIS collection 6 (C6) and used other predictor variables. Daily mean T_a was calculated from Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) stations data on the Livingston and Deception Islands, and from the PERMASNOW project stations on Livingston Island; both islands being part of the South Shetland Islands (SSI) archipelago. In relation to our previous work carried out in the study area with collection 5 (C5) data, we obtained higher R² values (R²_CV = 0.8, in the unique model with Terra daytime data) and lower errors (RMSE_CV = 2.2 °C, MAE_CV = 1.6 °C). We corroborated significant improvements in MODIS C6 LST data. We analyzed emissivity as a possible factor of discrepancies between C5 and C6, but we did not find conclusive results, therefore we could not affirm that emissivity is the factor that causes differences between one collection and another. The results obtained with the applied filters indicated that MODIS data can be used to study T_a in the area, as these filters contribute to the reduction of uncertainties in the modeling of T_a from satellites. Full article

Mountain lee waves present significant hazards to aviation, often inducing turbulence and aircraft icing. The current study focuses on understanding the potential impact of global climate change on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud episodes over central Iberia. We examine the suitability of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in predicting these environments using the ERA5 reanalysis as a benchmark for performance. The dataset is divided into two periods: historical data (2001–2014) and projections for the SSP5–8.5 future climate scenario (2015–2100). The variations and trends in precursor environments between historical data and future climate scenarios are exposed, with a particular focus on the expansion of the Azores High towards the Iberian Peninsula, resulting in increased zonal winds throughout the Iberian Peninsula in the future. However, the increase in zonal wind is insufficient to modify the wind pattern, so future mountain lee wave cloud events will not vary significantly. The relative humidity trends reveal no significant changes. Moreover, the risk of icing precursor environments connected with mountain lee wave clouds is expected to decrease in the future, due to rising temperatures. Our results highlight that the EC-EARTH3 GCM reveals the closest alignment with ERA5 data, and statistically significant differences between the historical and future climate scenario periods are presented, making EC-EARTH3 a robust candidate for conducting future studies on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud events. Full article

The mineralogical composition of airborne dust particles is an important but often neglected parameter for several physiochemical processes, such as atmospheric radiative transfer and ocean biochemistry. We present the development of the METAL-WRF module for the simulation of the composition of desert dust minerals in atmospheric aerosols. The new development is based on the GOCART-AFWA dust module of WRF-Chem. A new wet deposition scheme has been implemented in the dust module alongside the existing dry deposition scheme. The new model includes separate prognostic fields for nine (9) minerals: illite, kaolinite, smectite, calcite, quartz, feldspar, hematite, gypsum, and phosphorus, derived from the GMINER30 database and also iron derived from the FERRUM30 database. Two regional model sensitivity studies are presented for dust events that occurred in August and December 2017, which include a comparison of the model versus elemental dust composition measurements performed in the North Atlantic (at Izaña Observatory, Tenerife Island) and in the eastern Mediterranean (at Agia Marina Xyliatos station, Cyprus Island). The results indicate the important role of dust minerals, as dominant aerosols, for the greater region of North Africa, South Europe, the North Atlantic, and the Middle East, including the dry and wet depositions away from desert sources. Overall, METAL-WRF was found to be capable of reproducing the relative abundances of the different dust minerals in the atmosphere. In particular, the concentration of iron (Fe), which is an important element for ocean biochemistry and solar absorption, was modeled in good agreement with the corresponding measurements at Izaña Observatory (22% overestimation) and at Agia Marina Xyliatos site (4% overestimation). Further model developments, including the implementation of newer surface mineralogical datasets, e.g., from the NASA-EMIT satellite mission, can be implemented in the model to improve its accuracy. Full article

This study presents the results of the long-term monitoring of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations using a low-cost particle sensor installed in a suburban environment in the Canary Islands. A laser-scattering Nova Fitness SDS011 sensor was operated continuously for approximately three and a half years, which is longer than most other studies using this type of sensor. The impact of African dust outbreaks on the aerosol concentrations was assessed, showing a significant increase in both PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations during the outbreaks. Additionally, a good correlation was found with a nearby reference instrument of the air quality network of the Canary Islands’ government. The correlation between the PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations, the effect of relative humidity, and the stability of the sensor were also investigated. This study highlights the potential of this kind of sensor for long-term air quality monitoring with a view to developing extensive and dense low-cost air quality networks that are complementary to official air quality networks. Full article

On 19 September 2021, a volcanic eruption began on the island of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain). The eruption has allowed the assessment of an unprecedented multidisciplinary study on the effects of the volcanic plume. This work presents the estimation of the spectral direct radiative forcing ($\Delta$F) and efficiency ($\Delta$F${}^{Eff}$) from solar radiation measurements at the Izaña Observatory (IZO) located on the island of Tenerife (∼140 km from the volcano). During the eruption, the IZO was affected by different types of aerosols: volcanic, Saharan mineral dust, and a mixture of volcanic and dust aerosols. Three case studies were identified using ground-based (lidar) data, satellite-based (Sentinel-5P Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument, TROPOMI) data, reanalysis data (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2, MERRA-2), and backward trajectories (Flexible Trajectories, FLEXTRA), and subsequently characterised in terms of optical and micro-physical properties using ground-based sun-photometry measurements. Despite the $\Delta$F of the volcanic aerosols being greater than that of the dust events (associated with the larger aerosol load present), the $\Delta$F${}^{Eff}$ was found to be lower. The spectral $\Delta$F${}^{Eff}$ values at 440 nm ranged between −1.9 and −2.6 Wm${}^{-2}$nm${}^{-1}$AOD${}^{-1}$ for the mineral dust and mixed volcanic and dust particles, and between −1.6 and −3.3 Wm${}^{-2}$nm${}^{-1}$AOD${}^{-1}$ for the volcanic aerosols, considering solar zenith angles between 30${}^{\circ }$ and 70${}^{\circ }$, respectively. Full article

This study concerns the impact of microphysics on the HARMONIE-AROME NWP model. In particular, the representation of cloud droplets in the single-moment bulk microphysics scheme is examined in relation to fog forecasting. We focus on the shape parameters of the cloud droplet size distribution and recent changes to the representation of the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Two configurations of CDNC are considered: a profile that varies with height and a constant one. These aspects are examined together since few studies have considered their combined impact during fog situations. We present a set of six experiments performed for two non-idealised three-dimensional case studies over the Iberian Peninsula and the North Sea. One case displays both low clouds and fog, and the other shows a persistent fog field above sea. The experiments highlight the importance of the considered parameters that affect droplet sedimentation, which plays a key role in modelled fog. We show that none of the considered configurations can simultaneously represent all aspects of both cases. Hence, continued efforts are needed to introduce relationships between the governing parameters and the relevant atmospheric conditions. Full article