The Built Environment in a Changing Climate: Interactions, Challenges and Perspectives: Part II

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 September 2023) | Viewed by 25801

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, VA, Italy
Interests: radiative cooling; urban heat; heat island mitigation; climate change; outdoor comfort; building energy efficiency
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Guest Editor
ENEA Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Via Anguillarese, 301, S. Maria di Galeria, 00123 Rome, Italy
Interests: building energy efficiency; urban climate; urban sustainability; built environment; urban heat island; global warming; local warming; energy transition; decarbonization
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Worldwide, the built environment is being strongly challenged by climatic alterations (escalation of both weather extremes and mean trends) that put a strain on (i) energy needs for cooling and the release of anthropogenic heat, (ii) mortality and morbidity due to overheating and air pollution, (iii) productivity and wellbeing, and (iv) access to public spaces and social prosperity. Therefore, it is worth asking, what is the future of the urban realm in a changing climate? What is the role of a growing population with expanding patterns of urbanization and consumption? How can we mitigate buildings’ and cities’ burden on local/global environmental change?

In this context, this Special Issue aims to publish high-quality papers targeting the following goals:

  • Collecting criteria and methods to develop meteorological datasets including climate changes;
  • Establishing innovative monitoring systems to capture the multifarious impacts of an evolving climate on the built environment;
  • Defining the energy and comfort metrics in future buildings;
  • Estimating impacts in terms of air quality and heat-related mortality and morbidity rates;
  • Investigating the interaction between global and local climate changes;
  • Defining governance models, legal frameworks, and agenda-setting methods to prioritize climate policies;
  • Defining criteria and targets for urban and building integrated design in a warmer world.

Dr. Giulia Ulpiani
Dr. Tiziana Susca
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • future buildings
  • forecasting models
  • human health
  • climate policy
  • outdoor air quality
  • energy
  • thermal comfort
  • monitoring

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

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24 pages, 37537 KiB  
Article
Machine Learning for Simulation of Urban Heat Island Dynamics Based on Large-Scale Meteorological Conditions
by Mikhail Varentsov, Mikhail Krinitskiy and Victor Stepanenko
Climate 2023, 11(10), 200; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11100200 - 2 Oct 2023
Viewed by 2212
Abstract
This study considers the problem of approximating the temporal dynamics of the urban-rural temperature difference (ΔT) in Moscow megacity using machine learning (ML) models and predictors characterizing large-scale weather conditions. We compare several ML models, including random forests, gradient boosting, support [...] Read more.
This study considers the problem of approximating the temporal dynamics of the urban-rural temperature difference (ΔT) in Moscow megacity using machine learning (ML) models and predictors characterizing large-scale weather conditions. We compare several ML models, including random forests, gradient boosting, support vectors, and multi-layer perceptrons. These models, trained on a 21-year (2001–2021) dataset, successfully capture the diurnal, synoptic-scale, and seasonal variations of the observed ΔT based on predictors derived from rural weather observations or ERA5 reanalysis. Evaluation scores are further improved when using both sources of predictors simultaneously and involving additional features characterizing their temporal dynamics (tendencies and moving averages). Boosting models and support vectors demonstrate the best quality, with RMSE of 0.7 K and R2 > 0.8 on average over 21 years. For three selected summer and winter months, the best ML models forced only by reanalysis outperform the comprehensive hydrodynamic mesoscale model COSMO, supplied by an urban canopy scheme with detailed city-descriptive parameters and forced by the same reanalysis. However, for a longer period (1977–2023), the ML models are not able to fully reproduce the observed trend of ΔT increase, confirming that this trend is largely (by 60–70%) driven by megacity growth. Feature importance assessment indicates the atmospheric boundary layer height as the most important control factor for the ΔT and highlights the relevance of temperature tendencies as additional predictors. Full article
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19 pages, 2853 KiB  
Article
Embodied Carbon Emissions of the Residential Building Stock in the United States and the Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies
by Ming Hu
Climate 2022, 10(10), 135; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10100135 - 20 Sep 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4230
Abstract
According to the 2021 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction published by the United Nations Environment Programme, global carbon emissions from the building sector in 2019 were nearly 14 gigatons (Gt), representing 38% of total global carbon emissions, including 10% from building [...] Read more.
According to the 2021 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction published by the United Nations Environment Programme, global carbon emissions from the building sector in 2019 were nearly 14 gigatons (Gt), representing 38% of total global carbon emissions, including 10% from building construction. In the United States, the largest knowledge gap regarding embodied carbon in buildings exists at the whole-building level. The first step in creating informative policy to reduce embodied carbon emissions is to map the existing building stock emissions and changes over time to understand the primary contributing building types and hot spots (states), and then to compare and analyze mitigation scenarios. To fill this knowledge gap, this study first developed a bottom-up model to assess the embodied carbon of the US residential building stock by using 64 archetypes to represent the building stock. Then, the embodied carbon characteristics of the current building stock were analyzed, revealing that the primary contributor was single-family detached (SD) houses. The results indicated that the exterior wall was a major contributor, and that small multifamily housing was the most embodied carbon-intense building type. Two scenarios, the baseline scenario and progressive scenario, were formed to evaluate the effectiveness of six mitigation strategies. The progressive scenario with all mitigation strategies (M1–M6) applied produced a total reduction of 33.13 Gt CO2eq (42%) in the cumulative residential building stock related to carbon emissions during 2022–2050, and a total reduction of 88.34 Gt CO2eq (80%) during 2022–2100. The results show that with an embodied carbon emissions reduction in the progressive scenario (42% by 2100), the total embodied carbon emissions comply with the carbon budget of a 2 °C pathway, but will exceed the budget for a 1.5 °C pathway. Full article
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Review

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21 pages, 1738 KiB  
Review
The Impacts of Urbanisation and Climate Change on the Urban Thermal Environment in Africa
by Xueqin Li, Lindsay C. Stringer and Martin Dallimer
Climate 2022, 10(11), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110164 - 30 Oct 2022
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 18340
Abstract
Rapid urbanisation is affecting people in different ways, with some becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Africa’s cities are projected to be home to nearly 60% of the continent’s population by 2050. In conjunction with climate change, these cities are [...] Read more.
Rapid urbanisation is affecting people in different ways, with some becoming more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Africa’s cities are projected to be home to nearly 60% of the continent’s population by 2050. In conjunction with climate change, these cities are experiencing critical environmental challenges, including changes in the urban thermal environment. Urban areas generally exhibit significantly higher air and surface temperatures than their surrounding rural areas, resulting in urban heat islands. However, little has been done to synthesise existing knowledge and identify the key research gaps in this area, particularly in Africa. This paper focuses on the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the urban thermal environment in Africa, and provides a comprehensive review of results, major advances and the dominant direction of research. Our review of 40 publications from peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2021 revealed that South Africa, Ethiopia and Nigeria were most frequently studied, and satellite imagery-based data and analysis were used predominantly. Results from a few studies have shown the practical implications for urban land-use planning, informal settlement management, human wellbeing and productivity, energy use, air pollution and disease spread. Integrated approaches, strengthening planning institutions, and early warning systems are proposed to address climate change. Low-income groups are emphasised in efforts to help people cope with heat stress. Solutions based on land use and land cover dynamics and blue–green infrastructure are mentioned but are in need of further research. Cities with similar patterns of urbanisation, geographies and climate conditions could benefit from multi-disciplinary research collaboration to address the combined impacts of rapid urbanisation and climate change. Full article
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