Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2022) | Viewed by 26180

Special Issue Editors

Chair of Physical Geography, Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Interests: Regional climate and environmental modelling; Climate impact research; Geoinformatics and remote sensing; SAGA-GIS development
Section Physical Geography, Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Interests: GIS & Remote Sensing; Regional Climate Modeling (WRF); Tibet and the Himalya

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extending from the eastern Tibetan Himalaya to the Hindukush and Karakoram ranges in the northwest, the 2400-kilometer long Himalayan arc ensures the food-water-energy security, sustainable development and socio-economic wellbeing of billions of downstream inhabitants. Earth’s highest mountain range modulates distinct largescale atmospheric modes, affects all scopes of boundary layer dynamics and subsequently features an enormous topoclimatic heterogeneity, rarely covered by sparse observational record. Despite recent extensions in the observational networks, increased availability of remotely sensed datasets, swelling paleoclimatic reconstructions, and advances in convection-permitting climate modelling, detailed understanding of physical topoclimatic processes and their feedbacks, shifts in the prevailing precipitation regimes and their controls, and subsequent impacts on mountainous ecosystems remains elusive across times and scales. This pose a wide range of scientific challenges in understanding the Himalayan climate system of the past, present and future, their shifts and their severe impacts on all dependent sectors of life.

Against this background, this special issue invites observation, proxy reconstruction, and projections based analytical and modelling studies and their reviews that advance our knowledge about the past, present and future of the Himalayan climates, their shifts, and their subsequent impacts on all dimensions of life at local and regional scales. To broaden the regional focus and to enable comparative studies, articles on the Himalayas and its bordering high mountain ranges including the Karakoram, Hindu Kush and the Tibetan Plateau are welcome.

Prof. Dr. Jürgen Böhner
Dr. Shabeh ul Hasson
Guest Editors

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

25 pages, 26072 KiB  
Article
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Valley Wind Systems in the Complex Mountain Topography of the Rolwaling Himal, Nepal
by Helge Jentsch and Johannes Weidinger
Atmosphere 2022, 13(7), 1138; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071138 - 18 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1884
Abstract
The diurnal, seasonal, and spatio-temporal characteristics of local wind systems in a steep mountain valley in Nepal are analyzed with the identification of valley wind days (VWDs). Distributed across the Rolwaling Himal valley in Nepal between 3700 and 5100 m a.s.l. at eight [...] Read more.
The diurnal, seasonal, and spatio-temporal characteristics of local wind systems in a steep mountain valley in Nepal are analyzed with the identification of valley wind days (VWDs). Distributed across the Rolwaling Himal valley in Nepal between 3700 and 5100 m a.s.l. at eight automated weather stations (AWSs), meteorological data between October 2017 and September 2018 were examined. VWDs were classified by means of ERA5 reanalysis data and in situ observations, employing established thresholds using precipitation, solar radiation, air pressure, and wind speed data at different pressure levels. Thus, overlying synoptic influences are highly reduced and distinctive diurnal patterns emerge. A strong seasonal component in near-surface wind speed and wind direction patterns was detected. Further analyses showed the diurnal characteristics of slow (approximately 0.5–0.9 m s1), but gradually increasing wind speeds over the night, transitional periods in the morning and evening, and the highest averaged wind speeds of approximately 4.3 m s1 around noon during the VWDs. Wind directions followed a 180 shift with nocturnal katabatic mountain winds and inflowing anabatic valley winds during the daytime. With AWSs at opposing hillsides, slope winds were clearly identifiable and thermally driven spatio-temporal variations throughout the valley were revealed. Consequently, varying temporal shifts in wind speed and direction along the valley bottom can be extracted. In general, the data follow the well-known schematic of diurnal mountain–valley wind systems, but emphasize the influence of monsoonal seasonality and the surrounding complex mountain topography as decisive factors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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22 pages, 4379 KiB  
Article
Is New Always Better? Frontiers in Global Climate Datasets for Modeling Treeline Species in the Himalayas
by Maria Bobrowski, Johannes Weidinger and Udo Schickhoff
Atmosphere 2021, 12(5), 543; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050543 - 23 Apr 2021
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 4289
Abstract
Comparing and evaluating global climate datasets and their effect on model performance in regions with limited data availability has received little attention in ecological modeling studies so far. In this study, we aim at comparing the interpolated climate dataset Worldclim 1.4, which is [...] Read more.
Comparing and evaluating global climate datasets and their effect on model performance in regions with limited data availability has received little attention in ecological modeling studies so far. In this study, we aim at comparing the interpolated climate dataset Worldclim 1.4, which is the most widely used in ecological modeling studies, and the quasi-mechanistical downscaled climate dataset Chelsa, as well as their latest versions Worldclim 2.1 and Chelsa 1.2, with regard to their suitability for modeling studies. To evaluate the effect of these global climate datasets at the meso-scale, the ecological niche of Betula utilis in Nepal is modeled under current and future climate conditions. We underline differences regarding methodology and bias correction between Chelsa and Worldclim versions and highlight potential drawbacks for ecological models in remote high mountain regions. Regarding model performance and prediction plausibility under current climatic conditions, Chelsa-based models significantly outperformed Worldclim-based models, however, the latest version of Chelsa contains partially inherent distorted precipitation amounts. This study emphasizes that unmindful usage of climate data may have severe consequences for modeling treeline species in high-altitude regions as well as for future projections, if based on flawed current model predictions. The results illustrate the inevitable need for interdisciplinary investigations and collaboration between climate scientists and ecologists to enhance climate-based ecological model quality at meso- to local-scales by accounting for local-scale physical features at high temporal and spatial resolution. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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16 pages, 3465 KiB  
Article
Characteristics of Historical Precipitation in High Mountain Asia Based on a 15-Year High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling
by Collin Riley, Summer Rupper, James W. Steenburgh, Courtenay Strong, Adam K. Kochanski and Savanna Wolvin
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 355; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030355 - 08 Mar 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2472
Abstract
The mountains of High Mountain Asia serve as an important source of water for roughly one billion people living downstream. This research uses 15 years of dynamically downscaled precipitation produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to delineate contrasts in precipitation [...] Read more.
The mountains of High Mountain Asia serve as an important source of water for roughly one billion people living downstream. This research uses 15 years of dynamically downscaled precipitation produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to delineate contrasts in precipitation characteristics and events between regions dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) versus westerly disturbances during the cool season (December to March). Cluster analysis reveals a more complex spatial pattern than indicated by some previous studies and illustrates the increasing importance of westerly disturbances at higher elevations. Although prior research suggests that a small number of westerly disturbances dominate precipitation in the western Himalaya and Karakoram, the WRF-downscaled precipitation is less dominated by infrequent large events. Integrated vapor transport (IVT) and precipitation are tightly coupled in both regions during the cool season, with precipitation maximizing for IVT from the south-southwest over the Karakoram and southeast-southwest over the western Himalaya. During the ISM, Karakoram precipitation is not strongly related to IVT direction, whereas over the western Himalaya, primary and secondary precipitation maxima occur for flow from the west-southwest and northwest, respectively. These differences in the drivers and timing of precipitation have implications for hydrology, glacier mass balance, snow accumulation, and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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32 pages, 6019 KiB  
Article
Appraisal of Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources of Pakistan: A Case Study of Mangla Watershed
by Haroon Haider, Muhammad Zaman, Shiyin Liu, Muhammad Saifullah, Muhammad Usman, Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary, Muhammad Naveed Anjum and Muhammad Waseem
Atmosphere 2020, 11(10), 1071; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101071 - 09 Oct 2020
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 4535
Abstract
Water resources are highly dependent on climatic variations. The quantification of climate change impacts on surface water availability is critical for agriculture production and flood management. The current study focuses on the projected streamflow variations in the transboundary Mangla Dam watershed. Precipitation and [...] Read more.
Water resources are highly dependent on climatic variations. The quantification of climate change impacts on surface water availability is critical for agriculture production and flood management. The current study focuses on the projected streamflow variations in the transboundary Mangla Dam watershed. Precipitation and temperature changes combined with future water assessment in the watershed are projected by applying multiple downscaling techniques for three periods (2021–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). Streamflows are simulated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the outputs of five global circulation models (GCMs) and their ensembles under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Spatial and temporal changes in defined future flow indexes, such as base streamflow, average flow, and high streamflow have been investigated in this study. Results depicted an overall increase in average annual flows under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 up until 2099. The maximum values of low flow, median flow, and high flows under RCP 4.5 were found to be 55.96 m3/s, 856.94 m3/s, and 7506.2 m3/s and under RCP 8.5, 63.29 m3/s, 945.26 m3/s, 7569.8 m3/s, respectively, for these ensembles GCMs till 2099. Under RCP 4.5, the maximum increases in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), precipitation (Pr), and average annual streamflow were estimated as 5.3 °C, 2.0 °C, 128.4%, and 155.52%, respectively, up until 2099. In the case of RCP 8.5, the maximum increase in these hydro-metrological variables was up to 8.9 °C, 8.2 °C, 180.3%, and 181.56%, respectively, up until 2099. The increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs under RCP 4.5 were found to be 1.95 °C, 1.68 °C and 93.28% (2021–2039), 1.84 °C, 1.34 °C, and 75.88%(2040–2069), 1.57 °C, 1.27 °C and 72.7% (2070–2099), respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the projected increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs were found as 2.26 °C, 2.23 °C and 78.65% (2021–2039), 2.73 °C, 2.53 °C, and 83.79% (2040–2069), 2.80 °C, 2.63 °C and 67.89% (2070–2099), respectively. Three seasons (spring, winter, and autumn) showed a remarkable increase in streamflow, while the summer season showed a decrease in inflows. Based on modeling results, it is expected that the Mangla Watershed will experience more frequent extreme flow events in the future, due to climate change. These results indicate that the study of climate change’s impact on the water resources under a suitable downscaling technique is imperative for proper planning and management of the water resources. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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18 pages, 4873 KiB  
Article
Spring Season in Western Nepal Himalaya is not yet Warming: A 400-Year Temperature Reconstruction Based on Tree-Ring Widths of Himalayan Hemlock (Tsuga dumosa)
by Sugam Aryal, Narayan Prasad Gaire, Nawa Raj Pokhrel, Prabina Rana, Basant Sharma, Deepak Kumar Kharal, Buddi Sagar Poudel, Nita Dyola, Ze-Xin Fan, Jussi Grießinger and Achim Bräuning
Atmosphere 2020, 11(2), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020132 - 24 Jan 2020
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 4851
Abstract
The Himalayan region has already witnessed profound climate changes detectable in the cryosphere and the hydrological cycle, already resulting in drastic socio-economic impacts. We developed a 619-yea-long tree-ring-width chronology from the central Nepal Himalaya, spanning the period 1399–2017 CE. However, due to low [...] Read more.
The Himalayan region has already witnessed profound climate changes detectable in the cryosphere and the hydrological cycle, already resulting in drastic socio-economic impacts. We developed a 619-yea-long tree-ring-width chronology from the central Nepal Himalaya, spanning the period 1399–2017 CE. However, due to low replication of the early part of the chronology, only the section after 1600 CE was used for climate reconstruction. Proxy climate relationships indicate that temperature conditions during spring (March–May) are the main forcing factor for tree growth of Tsuga dumosa at the study site. We developed a robust climate reconstruction model and reconstructed spring temperatures for the period 1600–2017 CE. Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658–1681 CE, 1705–1722 CE, 1753–1773 CE, 1796–1874 CE, 1900–1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600–1625 CE, 1633–1657 CE, 1682–1704 CE, 1740–1752 CE, 1779–1795 CE, 1936–1945 CE, 1956–1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century. Tropical volcanic eruptions showed only a sporadic impact on the reconstructed temperature. Also, no consistent temperature trend was evident since 1600 CE. Our temperature reconstruction showed positive teleconnections with March–May averaged gridded temperature data for far west Nepal and adjacent areas in Northwest India and on the Southwest Tibetan plateau. We found spectral periodicities of 2.75–4 and 40–65 years frequencies in our temperature reconstruction, indicating that past climate variability in central Nepal might have been influenced by large-scale climate modes, like the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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19 pages, 13151 KiB  
Article
Observed Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Over the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin during 1970–2017
by Chunyu Liu, Yungang Li, Xuan Ji, Xian Luo and Mengtao Zhu
Atmosphere 2019, 10(12), 815; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120815 - 15 Dec 2019
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 3020
Abstract
Twenty-five climate indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation at 15 meteorological stations were examined to investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (1970–2017). The trend-free prewhitening (TFPW) Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were [...] Read more.
Twenty-five climate indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation at 15 meteorological stations were examined to investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (1970–2017). The trend-free prewhitening (TFPW) Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were used to identify trends and abrupt changes in the time series, respectively. The results showed widespread significant changes in extreme temperature indices associated with warming, most of which experienced abrupt changes in the 1990s. Increases in daily minimum and maximum temperature were detected, and the magnitude of daily minimum temperature change was greater than that of the daily maximum temperature, revealing an obvious decrease in the diurnal temperature range. Warm days and nights became more frequent, whereas fewer cold days and nights occurred. The frequency of frost and icing days decreased, while summer days and growing season length increased. Moreover, cold spell length shortened, whereas warm spell length increased. Additionally, changes in the precipitation extreme indices exhibited much less spatial coherence than the temperature indices. Spatially, mixed patterns of stations with positive and negative trends were found, and few trends in the precipitation extreme indices at individual stations were statistically significant. Generally, precipitation extreme indices showed a tendency toward wetter conditions, and the contribution of extreme precipitation to total precipitation has increased. However, no significant regional trends and abrupt changes were detected in total precipitation or in the frequency and duration of precipitation extremes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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24 pages, 5412 KiB  
Article
Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China
by Suli Pan, Yue-Ping Xu, Weidong Xuan, Haiting Gu and Zhixu Bai
Atmosphere 2019, 10(8), 453; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080453 - 08 Aug 2019
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3369
Abstract
Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under [...] Read more.
Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climates of the Himalayas: Present, Past and Future)
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