Forests 2026, 17(2), 228; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17020228 (registering DOI) - 7 Feb 2026
Abstract
As global climate change intensifies and extreme weather events become more frequent, understanding the historical spatial distribution of vegetation is of critical importance. However, most vegetation studies are temporally limited to the post-1980 period due to satellite data constraints. To bridge this gap,
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As global climate change intensifies and extreme weather events become more frequent, understanding the historical spatial distribution of vegetation is of critical importance. However, most vegetation studies are temporally limited to the post-1980 period due to satellite data constraints. To bridge this gap, we integrated tree-ring width chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Databank with Landsat-derived Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data and evaluated three machine learning models—Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)—to reconstruct annual, spatially explicit EVI for the period 1850–1985 in Diqing, Yunnan, China. RF regression was the best among the three with highest adjusted R2 (0.90) and lowest Root Mean Square Error (0.032). The RF-based reconstruction indicated a consistent increase in regional EVI from 1991 to 2005. Breakpoint analysis identified three distinct sub-periods, each with unique spatiotemporal variation patterns. In current times, the EVI value shows a significant positive correlation with average temperatures in June, July, August, and December. In the contemporary period, it also correlates significantly and positively with winter average temperatures, March average precipitation, and spring average precipitation. The spatial pattern for the past 100 years reflects the succession of the local vegetation ecosystem and provides an insight into the influences of natural disturbances (low-temperature damages and droughts) on vegetation growth. This study demonstrates the feasibility of reconstructing high-resolution, long-term vegetation spatial dynamics using tree-ring proxies and machine learning.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Remote Sensing and GIS Utilization in Monitoring of Forest Ecosystems)
