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Open AccessArticle

A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

1
Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre, 57001 Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece
2
Hellenic Agricultural Organization - Demeter, Soil and Water Resources Institute, 57001 Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece
3
Department of Hydraulics, Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Hydrology 2019, 6(3), 61; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030061
Received: 7 May 2019 / Revised: 13 July 2019 / Accepted: 16 July 2019 / Published: 20 July 2019
This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers. View Full-Text
Keywords: lake/reservoir hydrology; regulated superficial discharge; steady-state conditions; hydroclimatic vulnerability; general circulation model; climate change lake/reservoir hydrology; regulated superficial discharge; steady-state conditions; hydroclimatic vulnerability; general circulation model; climate change
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Demertzi, K.; Papadimos, D.; Aschonitis, V.; Papamichail, D. A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow. Hydrology 2019, 6, 61.

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