Abstract
Landfills serve as a primary disposal method for municipal solid waste in China, with over 20,000 operational sites nationwide; however, long-term operations risk leachate leakage and groundwater contamination. Amid intensifying climate change and human activities, understanding contaminant evolution mechanisms in landfills has become critically urgent. Focusing on a representative plain-based landfill in North China, this study integrated field investigations and groundwater monitoring to establish a monthly coupled groundwater flow–solute transport model (using MODFLOW and MT3DMS codes) based on site-specific hydrogeological boundaries and multi-year monitoring data, analyzing spatiotemporal plume evolution under the coupled impacts of precipitation variability (climate change) and intensive groundwater extraction (human activities), spanning the historical period (2021–2024) and future projections (2025–2040). Historical simulations demonstrated robust model performance with satisfactory calibration against observed water levels and chloride concentrations, revealing that the current contamination plume exhibits a distinct distribution beneath the site. Future projections indicate nonlinear concentration increases: in the plume core zone, concentrations rise with precipitation, whereas at the advancing front, concentrations escalate with extraction intensity. Spatially, high-risk zones (>200 mg/L) emerge earlier under wetter conditions—under the baseline scenario (S0), such zones form by 2033 and exceed site boundaries by 2037. Plume expansion scales positively with extraction intensity, reaching its maximum advancement and coverage under the high-extraction scenario. These findings demonstrate dual drivers—precipitation accelerates contaminant accumulation through enhanced leaching, while groundwater extraction promotes plume expansion via heightened hydraulic gradients. This work elucidates coupled climate–human activity impacts on landfill contamination mechanisms, proposing a transferable numerical modeling framework that provides a quantitative scientific basis for post-closure supervision, risk assessment, and regional groundwater protection strategies, thereby aligning with China’s Standard for Pollution Control on the Landfill Site of Municipal Solid Waste and the Zero-Waste City initiative.