Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hepatitis a Virus Infection Arising from the Consumption of Fermented Clams in South Korea
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Estimation of Initial Contamination Concentration
2.2. Estimation of Time and Temperature Data during Transport and Storage of the Fermented Clams
2.3. HAV Inoculation and Titer Enumeration in the Fermented Clams
2.4. Predictive Model Development
2.5. Consumption Ratio and Amount of Fermented Clams in South Korea
2.6. Dose–Response Model
2.7. Risk Characterization
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Prevalence and Initial Contamination Level of HAV in Fermented Clams
3.2. Temperature and Time of the Fermented Clams during Storage and Transportation
3.3. Predictive Models to Describe the Fate of HAV during Transport and Storage as Temperature and Time Changes
3.4. Consumption Ratio and Amount of Fermented Clams
3.5. Dose–Response Model
3.6. Risk Characterization and Simulation
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | Temperature | ||
---|---|---|---|
−20 °C | 4 °C | 25 °C | |
Death rate (Log PFU/g/h) | −1.6 × 10−3 | −2.0 × 10−3 | −8.2 × 10−3 |
Shoulder period (h) | 70 | 26 | 5.4 |
Input | Unit | Variable | Equation | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Initial contamination level | ||||
Hepatitis A virus prevalence | PR | =Beta(45, 93) | This research; [21] | |
Hepatitis A virus concentration | GC/g | HAV | =−LN(1 − PR)/2 g | [15] |
Initial contamination level | PFU/g | CL | =1/1000 × HAV | [35] |
Log PFU/g | LogIC | =Log(CL) | ||
MARKET | ||||
Display time | h | Timemark | =Pert(0, 168, 3600) | This research |
Temperature during display | °C | Tempmark | =Uniform(2.2281, 35) | [29,30] |
Hepatitis A virus death | ||||
h0 | =0.001 | This research; [19] | ||
Log PFU/g | Y0 | =average(Y0i) Fixed 3.5 | ||
Log PFU/g | Yend | =average(Yendi) Fixed 3.2 | ||
LN(q) | =LN(1/(EXP(h0) − 1)) | |||
Death rate | Log PFU/g/h | DRmark | =−0.0035 − 0.0001 × Tempmark | |
Hepatitis A virus death | Log PFU/g | C1 | =LogIC + 1/(1 − (10-lY0-Yendl/LN(10))) × (1 + EXP(-LN(q)) × DRmark × Timemark | |
TRANSPORTATION FROM MARKET TO HOME | ||||
Transportation time | h | Timeveh | =Uniform(0.325, 1.643) | [30] |
Temperature during transportation | °C | Tempveh | =Pert(10.0, 18.0, 25.0) | [30] |
Hepatitis A virus death | ||||
h0 | =0.001 | This research; [19] | ||
Log PFU/g | Y0 | =average(Y0i) Fixed 3.5 | ||
Log PFU/g | Yend | =average(Yendi) Fixed 3.2 | ||
LN(q) | =LN(1/(EXP(h0) − 1)) | |||
Death rate | Log PFU/g/h | DRveh | =−0.0035 − 0.0001 × Tempveh | |
Hepatitis A virus death | Log PFU/g | C2 | =C1 + 1/(1 − (10-lY0-Yendl/LN(10))) × (1 + EXP(-LN(q)) × DRveh × Timeveh | |
HOME | ||||
Storage time | h | Timehome | =Uniform(0, 720) | [31] |
Temperature during storage | °C | Temphome | =LogLogistic(−29.28, 33.22, 26.66, RiskTruncate(−5, 10)) | [32] |
Hepatitis A virus death | ||||
h0 | =0.001 | This research; [19] | ||
Log PFU/g | Y0 | =average(Y0i) Fixed 3.5 | ||
Log PFU/g | Yend | =average(Yendi) Fixed 3.2 | ||
LN(q) | =LN(1/(EXP(h0)−1)) | |||
Death rate | Log PFU/g/h | DRhome | =−0.0035 − 0.0001 × Temphome | |
Hepatitis A virus death | Log PFU/g | C3 | =C2 + 1/(1 − (10-lY0-Yendl/LN(10))) × (1 + EXP(-LN(q)) × DRhome × Timehome | |
PFU/g | C3PFU/g | =10C3 | ||
CONSUMPTION | ||||
Average consumption amount per day | g | Consump | =Expon (8.1689, RiskShift(0.69235), RiskTruncate(3, 36.3)) | This research; [9] |
Consumption ratio per day | % | ConRatio | =0.13 | This research; [9] |
CR(0) | =1 − 0.13/100 | [9] | ||
CR(1) | =0.13/100 | [9] | ||
CR | =Discrete({0,1}, {CR(0), CR(1)}) | [9] | ||
g | Amount | =IF(CR = 0, 0, Consump) | [9] | |
DOSE–RESPONSE | ||||
Hepatitis A virus amount | PFU/g | D | =C3PFU/g × Amount | |
α | =Fixed 0.373 | [34] | ||
β | =Fixed 186.4 | |||
RISK | ||||
Probability of illness | P | =1 − (1 + D/β)−α | [34] |
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Yoo, Y.; Sung, M.; Hwang, J.; Yeo, D.; Zhao, Z.; Choi, C.; Yoon, Y. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hepatitis a Virus Infection Arising from the Consumption of Fermented Clams in South Korea. Foods 2023, 12, 796. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12040796
Yoo Y, Sung M, Hwang J, Yeo D, Zhao Z, Choi C, Yoon Y. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hepatitis a Virus Infection Arising from the Consumption of Fermented Clams in South Korea. Foods. 2023; 12(4):796. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12040796
Chicago/Turabian StyleYoo, Yoonjeong, Miseon Sung, Jeongeun Hwang, Daseul Yeo, Ziwei Zhao, Changsun Choi, and Yohan Yoon. 2023. "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hepatitis a Virus Infection Arising from the Consumption of Fermented Clams in South Korea" Foods 12, no. 4: 796. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12040796