Abstract
This paper focuses on the construction of deterministic and stochastic extensions of the Gompertz curve by means of generalized fractional derivatives induced by complete Bernstein functions. Precisely, we first introduce a class of linear stochastic equations involving a generalized fractional integral and we study the properties of its solutions. This is done by proving the existence and uniqueness of Gaussian solutions of such equations via a fixed point argument and then by showing that, under suitable conditions, the expected value of the solution solves a generalized fractional linear equation. Regularity of the absolute p-moment functions is proved by using generalized Grönwall inequalities. Deterministic generalized fractional Gompertz curves are introduced by means of Caputo-type generalized fractional derivatives, possibly with respect to other functions. Their stochastic counterparts are then constructed by using the previously considered integral equations to define a rate process and a generalization of lognormal distributions to ensure that the median of the newly constructed process coincides with the deterministic curve.
Keywords:
complete Bernstein function; Gaussian process; linear integral equation; lognormal distribution MSC:
60G15; 34A08
1. Introduction
In the context of population dynamics, the Gompertz curve represents one of the most adaptable models of population growth with variable rate. Precisely, Gompertz proposed the well-known curve to model population growth under the assumption that the mortality rate grows exponentially with the age (see [1]). After this, the Gompertz curve has been shown to be a quite useful model for phenomena that exhibit an intrinsic ageing effect, as for instance tumour incidence (see [2]). Gompertz-type models are not limited to phenomena involving human age. For instance, such kind of models have been widely used in the context of tumour growth (see [3]), as the growth of the radius of a multicell spheroid is influenced by the inhibition effect of its necrotic core (see [4]), which grows together with the tumour itself.
Different generalizations of the Gompertz curve have been presented in literature. An example is given by the generalized logistic curve (see [5]), which covers not only the Gompertz curve, but a wide family of growth curves depending on the choice of the exponents of the logistic equation and the rate function. On the other hand, to include background noise effects, stochastic generalizations of the Gompertz curve, obtained via diffusion processes, have been introduced in [6] and then further extended to non-homogeneous diffusions in [7], while first passage time problems for them have been studied, e.g., in [8,9]. Such models have been widely used, for instance, to study the effects of therapy on tumours (see [10] and references therein). The importance of the stochastic interpretation of the Gompertz curve is underlined in [11], where the crucial role of the noise in growth phenomena is highlighted.
Among the generalizations of Gompertz-type models, we also find fractional order Gompertz curves. Fractional calculus has been applied to a lot of different fields (see [12] and references therein) and several papers and books on fractional differential equations have been produced (see, for instance [13,14,15] and references therein). Moreover, different papers on numerical algorithms to solve fractional differential equations have been published (see, for instance [16] for a survey of numerical methods). Several works on the subject have been produced in the last two years, such as for instance [17], in which a Crank–Nicolson scheme has been used to solve a fractional order PDE [18,19,20,21], in which different methods involving Chelyshkov polynomials have been studied, and [22], in which Gegenbauer wavelets are used. Moreover, fractional stochastic differential equations, which are defined by means of the Lévy–Liouville fractional Brownian motion, have been recently studied in [23]. Among the applications of fractional differential equations, in [24] a fractional order Gompertz curve has been considered to study a tumour growth model whose rate exhibits a non-exponential trend. On the other hand, another fractional order Gompertz curve has been proposed in [25] to study different biological phenomena, such as dark fermentation. The latter fractional-order curve is constructed by means of Caputo fractional derivatives with respect to increasing functions, that were introduced in [26]. This type of derivative can be used to obtain chain rules for fractional derivatives of composite functions (with increasing ones), as obtained for Riemann–Liouville fractional derivatives in [27]. A similar chain rule can be obtained for the change of variables , by means of right-sided fractional derivatives that naturally arise in the integration by parts formula, as shown in [28]. In [29] both the approaches in [24,25] have been considered to introduce a Gompertz model with two, eventually different, fractional orders and its stochastic counterpart.
Lately, fractional calculus has been further generalized to include more complicated orders. This is the case, for instance, of the tempered fractional calculus [30] and of the distributed order fractional calculus [31]. These new operators fall into the wider setting of the generalized fractional calculus, introduced in [32] via Stieltjes measures and in [33] via Lévy measures. Both approaches are correlated with the good properties of Bernstein functions [34]. As observed in the aforementioned literature, there is a strict link between the (generalized) fractional calculus and the theory of Lévy processes, which has been underlined, for instance, in [35]. This link is revealed to be crucial to determining different properties of solutions of linear and nonlinear generalized fractional differential equations. In [36], relaxation equations for generalized fractional derivatives are studied and different properties of the eigenfunctions of the aforementioned nonlocal derivatives are obtained, underlining the connection between such relaxation pattern and semi-Markov processes. The growth equation has been studied in [37] in the case of complete Bernstein functions. In [38], the existence and uniqueness of solutions for nonlinear generalized fractional differential equations have been proved by means of a fixed-point argument, while a generalized Grönwall inequality is proved with the same strategy as in [39] for the fractional case. In [36,37,38], eigenfunctions of the generalized fractional derivatives are recognized as Laplace transform or moment generating functions of particular stochastic processes. Explicit formulae for such functions are not known in the general case, while in the standard fractional one they are recognized as Mittag–Leffler functions in [40]. In [41], the existence, uniqueness and spectral decomposition of exact solutions of some time-nonlocal parabolic equations are obtained by means of stochastic representation results. Here, we will use both the representation of the eigenfunctions as obtained in [36,37,38] and the regularity properties of solutions of generalized fractional linear differential equations proved in [41].
As we already stated, fractional calculus was introduced in population dynamics models to consider phenomena with underlying memory effects, as done in [24,25]. However, fractional calculus relies only on one particular type of memory kernel, that is, the Riesz kernel. To consider more complicated memory effects, other more general kernels have to be considered. This can be achieved by using the tools of the generalized fractional calculus, as done, for instance, in [37] in the case of the (Malthusian) growth equation and in [42] in the case of the logistic equation. On the other hand, the introduction of noise in growth phenomena is also mandatory to describe possible random fluctuations, as done in [6,7] for the classical Gompertz curve and in [29] for the fractional Gompertz curves.
The problem we address in this paper is twofold: on one hand, we want to extend the definition of fractional Gompert curves to cover a wider range of memory kernels; on the other hand, we want to introduce noise in the aforementioned models in a coherent way. Thus, here we consider a further generalization of the construction presented in [29] to the case of fractional orders expressed in terms of complete Bernstein functions. In particular, we first construct some deterministic generalized fractional Gompertz curves and then we introduce their stochastic counterparts. Differently from [29], we consider a generalization of lognormal processes to guarantee that the stochastic Gompertz curves remain positive and, at the same time, their medians represent the deterministic ones. The paper is structured as follows:
- In Section 2 we give some preliminaries on Bernstein functions;
- In Section 3 we introduce generalized fractional integrals and derivatives. In particular we give some chain rules involving generalized fractional derivatives with respect to other functions and we study the properties of the eigenfunctions of the defined operators;
- In Section 4, we study the properties of the solutions of some linear stochastic equations involving generalized fractional integrals. In particular, we show that such equations admit a unique Gaussian solution and that, under some suitable assumptions on the noise process, its expectation solves a linear generalized fractional differential equation;
- In Section 6 we present a short summary of the main results of the paper and we compare them with some pre-existing literature. Finally, some highlights for future works are given.
2. Preliminaries and Notation
In this section we provide some preliminary definitions and lemmas.
Definition 1.
We say that a function (where ) is a Bernstein function (see [34]) if and only if and, for any , it holds
The convex cone (see [34] [Corollary ]) of Bernstein functions will be denoted as .
A Bernstein function is said to be special if and only if the conjugate function
is still a Bernstein function. The class of special Bernstein functions will be denoted as .
To characterize Bernstein functions, let us recall the following theorem, known as Lévy-Khinchine representation theorem (see [34] [Theorem ]).
Theorem 1.
A function belongs to if and only if there exist two constants and a non-negative measure on such that
and
The constants and are called respectively the killing and the drift coefficient of . We will denote . However, we need Bernstein functions whose Lévy measure is more regular. To do this, we refer to the following definition.
Definition 2.
A Bernstein function is said to be complete if its Lévy measure admits a completely monotone density, that is, for some function such that
We denote the convex cone (see [34] [Corollary ]) of complete Bernstein functions as .
Bernstein functions can be recognized as Laplace exponents of particular Lévy processes. Indeed, let us recall the following definition.
Definition 3.
A subordinator (see [43] [Chapter ]) is a non-decreasing Lévy process. Given a subordinator and a positive constant , the process
where is an exponentially distributed random variable, with rate a, independent of , is called a subordinator killed at rate a.
Concerning the link between subordinators and Bernstein functions, we have the following Theorem (see [34] [Theorem ]).
Theorem 2.
For any there exists a unique (possibly killed) subordinator such that
Vice versa, for any (possibly killed) subordinator there exists a Bernstein function such that Equation (3) holds.
Since we focus on Bernstein functions, we will usually denote a subordinator by , referring to the fact that its Laplace exponent is given by .
For any subordinator, the following occupation measure can be defined.
Definition 4.
Let be a subordinator. The potential measure of on is defined as
where is the Borel σ-algebra of and is the indicator function of the Borel set A. We will denote the distribution function of the potential measure and we will usually refer to it directly as a potential measure.
Moreover, we can define a right-continuous inverse for the process .
Definition 5.
Let be a subordinator. For any we define
called inverse subordinator.
Remark 1.
As shown in [35] [Theorem ], if , then is an absolutely continuous random variable for any . Let us denote by its probability density function.
Once we have defined the inverse subordinator, by using the fact that and are increasing, we have
Concerning special Bernstein functions, the associated potential measure is almost absolutely continuous, except at most for a jump in 0, as stated in the following theorem (see [34] [Theorem ]).
Theorem 3.
Let . Then if and only if there exists a non-negative and non-increasing function such that and
where is Dirac’s δ measure centered in 0 and
In particular, if or and , then is absolutely continuous with density given by , called the potential density of .
Remark 2.
Let us emphasize that, for fixed , denoting by , , respectively the killing coefficient, the drift coefficient and the Lévy measure of , it holds (see [34] [Equation (10.9)]):
Hence, if and only if , that is to say if and only if or
Let us recall that the following inclusion holds:
We will work with a specific subset of complete Bernstein functions. Hence, let us introduce the following notation:
where is the identity map. Hereafter, we consider the following Assumption.
Assumption A1.
and there exist , and such that
Remark 3.
The previous Assumption guarantees that, for any , there exists a constant C such that
3. Generalized Fractional Integrals and Derivatives
Let us first introduce some generalized fractional integrals.
Definition 6.
Set a Banach space . For any , given a function , we say that if f is Bochner-integrable, that, by Bochner’s Theorem (see [44] [Theorem ]) is equivalent to asking that f is measurable and is Lebesgue-integrable, i.e., . Given a function we say that if and only if for any .
For any function we define the generalized fractional integral of the first kind of f induced by as
where is the potential density of and the integral is a Bochner integral.
We define the generalized fractional integral of the second kind of f induced by as
where is the tail of the Lévy measure of and the integral is a Bochner integral.
If , we define
Remark 4.
First, let us observe that, by [44] [Proposition ], the quantites defined in Equations (4) and (5) are well-defined.
Let us also underscore that, by Remark 2, as , the operators and coincide if and only if or . In general, it holds, for any ,
With the help of the previously introduced operators, we can define the following generalizations of both Riemann–Liouville and Caputo derivatives, introduced first in [32] for complete Bernstein functions and then in [33] in the general case.
Definition 7.
Set a Banach space . For any function we define the generalized Riemann–Liouville derivative induced by , with , as
where the integral is a Bochner integral, provided that the involved quantities exist.
Given , we say that a function is absolutely continuous if there exists a function such that and
and we denote it by . We denote by the set of functions such that for any it holds . When , we do not specify X.
For any we define the generalized Caputo derivative of f induced by , with , as
where the integral is a Bochner integral.
Remark 5.
Let us remark that, if , then one can show that . Thus, the quantity defined in Equation (7) is well-defined for any . However, if , there exist some functions such that . For instance, if , this is the case of . Indeed, by Equation (6) and [34] [Theorem ] we get
thus . However, since , we have , hence . Thus, in general, the domain of properly contains .
On the other hand, the quantities defined in Equation (8) are well-defined if and only if by [44] [Proposition ].
Such operators are generalizations of the well-known Caputo and Riemann–Liouville fractional derivatives, which are achieved in the case with . Indeed, in this case, and .
Remark 6.
If , then we define . In general, for such that the operators are defined as
and
Let us consider any . By a simple application of Fubini’s theorem we get
where we also used [45] [Chapter 6, Theorem 11]. Differentiating (almost everywhere) in both sides of the previous relation we get
With this relation in mind we can extend the definition of generalized Caputo derivative to a (possibly) larger class of functions.
Definition 8.
Set a Banach space . For any function we define the regularized generalized Caputo derivative induced by as
whenever the right-hand side is well-defined.
Remark 7.
Equation (10) justifies the fact that we are using the same symbol of the generalized Caputo derivative.
Concerning the inversion of such operators, let us observe that, as shown in [36] [Section ], if f is a function such that is well defined, then
thus we can see the operator as the inverse of the generalized Caputo derivative .
In the case , it holds , where is the fractional integral of order (see [13] [Chapter 2]), is the Riemann–Liouville fractional derivative of order and is the Caputo fractional derivative of order .
Here, we also need other generalized fractional operators, that is, the integral and the derivative of a function with respect to an increasing function. The definitions we give are analogous to the ones given in [27] for the Riemann–Liouville fractional derivative and [26] for the Caputo one.
Definition 9.
Set a Banach space and consider a strictly increasing function . For any measurable function , we define the generalized fractional integral of the second kind of f induced by with respect to the function as
where is the tail of the Lévy measure of and the integral is a Bochner integral, provided that the involved quantities exist.
Suppose now some . For any measurable function we define the generalized Riemann–Liouville derivative induced by , , with respect to as
where the integral is a Bochner integral, provided that the involved quantities exist.
Moreover, for any , we define the generalized Caputo derivative of f induced by , , as
where the integral is a Bochner integral, provided that the involved quantities exist.
Remark 8.
Let us underline that we do not really need for all , but only on the points in which we want to define . Moreover, we can formally define the Caputo derivative even if , since does not play any role in the first equality of Formula (13).
Finally, if , we define, for any ,
Let us stress that if the operators coincide with the ones introduced in [26,27]. Now we want to prove a chain rule, analogous to the one given in [29] [Proposition 1].
Proposition 1.
Fix strictly increasing with and . Let and for . Then, the following properties are true:
- 1.
- It holds
- 2.
- If it holdsprovided one of the involved quantities exists;
- 3.
- If and is locally Lipschitz in , then and it holds
- 4.
- If , is locally Lipschitz in and , it holds
Proof.
Let us argue for , since the case is trivial.
By the definitions of in Equation (12) and in Equation (5) we have
where we used the change of variables .
Concerning claim , it follows from by considering in place of , differentiating both sides of (14) and multiplying by .
Let us prove claim . First of all since it is composition of an absolutely continuous function with a locally Lipschitz one. In particular, it holds
and then
where we again used the change of variables .
Finally, concerning claim , we have, by claims and and the fact that (and thus ),
□
Remark 9.
Let us observe that claims and also hold if Ψ is not locally Lipschitz, but . Indeed, both claims directly follow from the fact that in such case .
Moreover, the last Proposition tells us that the quantity (12) is well defined for any measurable function with the property that there exists such that (equivalently ). This is the case, for instance, of , since, by Continuous Inverse Theorem [46] [Theorem ], . Finally, the quantity in Equation (13) is well defined if is locally Lipschitz in whenever with the property that there exists such that (this is, for instance, the case in which and is bi-Lipschitz). If is not locally Lipschitz, then the quantity in Equation (13) is still well-defined if the function g defined as above belongs to .
Eigenfunctions of the Generalized Fractional Derivatives of Caputo Type
In the following we need to characterize the eigenfunctions of the generalized fractional derivatives of Caputo type that have been previously introduced. First of all, let us recall that the function,
is well-defined for any (see [38] [Lemma ]). Let us also recall the following Proposition (see [38] [Proposition ]).
Proposition 2.
Consider , with and , and . Then is the unique solution of
Remark 10.
If then .
Remark 11.
As a consequence of [41] [Theorem ], if then not only belongs to , but also admits an analytic extension on a sector for some .
In the following we need to extend the definition of for fixed to negative values of t. To do this we set
that is a continuous monotone function.
Remark 12.
Observe that .
can be recognized as the eigenfunction of a particular non-local operator. Indeed, let us define the following operator.
Definition 10.
Set a Banach space . We say that a measurable function belongs to , where , if and only if the function , defined as for any , belongs to .
For any function we define the right generalized Riemann–Liouville derivative induced by , with , as
We say that belongs to if and only if the function belongs to .
Moreover, for any , we define the right generalized Caputo derivative induced by , with , as
Since for any it holds
we can extend the definition of right generalized Caputo derivative to non absolutely continuous functions via Equation (15), supposed that the function admits a generalized Riemann–Liouville derivative.
If , we define .
We say that a measurable function belongs to if . We say that a measurable function belongs to if .
For any function we define the bilateral generalized Riemann–Liouville derivative induced by as
and the bilateral generalized Caputo derivative induced by as
provided the involved quantities exist.
Remark 13.
The definition of right derivative is given by taking in consideration the integration by parts formula (see, for instance [28]). However, with we want to mimic the behaviour of the derivative on the whole real line, thus we need to introduce another − sign on the right derivative. Recall that if we get .
Obviously, the bilateral derivatives are well-defined on .
Proposition 3.
Fix and let and such that for any . The following properties are true:
- 1.
- It holdsprovided one of the involved quantities exists;
- 2.
- It holdsprovided one of the involved quantities exists.
Proof.
Let us first observe that
where we used the change of variables . Differentiating on both sides we get
By using (15), we conclude the proof. □
As a direct consequence of Propositions 1–3, we obtain the following result.
Proposition 4.
Fix and with . The following statements hold:
- The function is the unique solution of
- The function is the unique solution of
We already know, by definition, that is nondecreasing. We want to prove that is strictly increasing. We actually have a stronger result.
Proposition 5.
Let satisfy Assumption A1. Then, for any , it holds and
Proof.
By the fact that , we know, by Remark 11, that . Moreover, let us recall, from [38] [Lemma ],
where
First of all, since , then with derivative and . Moreover, let us observe that, by definition,
and then for any . Observe also that is well defined as .
Now let us show that if with derivative , then also with derivative . Indeed, we have that is absolutely continuous with and then
Now let us observe that , being the convolution product of and that are both in . Thus, is sum of two functions in . By induction, we know that, for any , it holds with derivative .
Furthermore, let us observe that for and that, if , then Equation (17) implies that , so that we can conclude that
Being , then, by [34] [Proposition ], also . By Remark 2 we know that and
If , then and for any . If , then . Hence, by [34] [Proposition ], being , we know that cannot have bounded support. As it is also decreasing, it holds for any . Thus, in general, we conclude that
Corollary 1.
Let . Then, for any , the function is continuous and strictly increasing.
Proof.
Let us prove the statement for , since the proof is analogous as . Let us first recall that if , then is completely monotone (see [36] [Theorem ]). Thus, we have that is strictly increasing on . On the other hand, Proposition 5 implies that is strictly increasing on . Finally, the fact that concludes the proof. □
Remark 14.
The function could be non (right-)differentiable in 0. For instance, consider with . Then it is known (see [40]) that , where is the Mittag–Leffler function defined as
In particular it holds
Thus, we have
and then .
However, since is monotone, by [47] [Theorem ] we know that .
4. Gaussian Solutions for a Linear Stochastic Integral Equation with Constant Coefficients
From now on, let us fix a complete filtered probability space . For a fixed , we want to exhibit the solution of the following stochastic integral equation
where G is a suitable Gaussian stochastic process, is a Gaussian random variable independent of G and . Before proving an existence and uniqueness result, we need to set some notations.
4.1. Properties of Generalized Fractionally-Integrated Gaussian Processes
For any , let us denote by a time interval with horizon T. If , we set . For , we can define the Banach space of continuous functions equipped with the supremum norm
Let us consider the following class of stochastic processes:
and its subclass of Gaussian processes:
To study Hölder-regularity properties of the sample paths of the solution of (21), we consider the following subclass of :
Remark 15.
If for some , then, J being compact, is a.s. r-Hölder continuous on J.
As a preliminary result, let us show that if we fix and we integrate a process , we obtain a process in .
Lemma 1.
Let , and . Then there exists a set such that and the process is well defined for any . Moreover, if Assumption A1 is satisfied, then .
Proof.
Let
and observe that, being , . Hence, for any , is well-defined. We omit the proof of the fact that as it is identical to the first part of the proof of [29] [Lemma 1].
Let us show that . To do this, fix any , and define . We want to show that is -Hölder continuous in . To do this, fix and such that . Let us first assume . We have
where we could take the supremum norm since, being , , and we also used the fact that , being increasing. Finally, by Remark 3, we obtain
If the argument is analogous except for the fact that we control , by subadditivity of the potential measure. Thus, in general, we get
concluding the proof. □
Now let us recall the definition of compatibility, as given in [29].
Definition 11.
Let . We say that Z is compatible with G if the coupled process is a -adapted Gaussian process with a.s. continuous sample paths. Let us recall that this implies that .
We denote
Let us give the following Lemma.
Lemma 2.
Let , , and . Let and be defined as in Lemma 1. Then .
We omit the proof, since it is identical to the one of [29] [Lemma 2].
Remark 16.
Let us also stress that any continuous function belongs to (considering it as a degenerate stochastic process). Moreover, if is independent of G, then . Finally, if and are continuous functions for , then .
4.2. Existence and Uniqueness of a Gaussian Solution
Now we are ready to prove the following Theorem.
Theorem 4.
Consider satisfying Assumption A1, and a Gaussian random variable independent of G. Then Equation (21) admits a Gaussian solution , in the sense that there exists a Gaussian process and a set with such that
Moreover, the solution is unique, in the sense that, if is another solution of (21),
Finally, if for some , then .
Proof.
First of all, fix and define . On the space of continuous functions on J define the norm
where is a suitable constant. For any it holds
thus is a Banach space.
Let us consider
and fix . Define the operator as
Let us first show that is well-defined. Consider , and such that . If , we have
where we used the fact that and Remark 3. If , arguing in the same way, we get
where we used, in this case, the fact that . Being , this is enough to guarantee that .
Now let us show that is a contraction. To do this, consider , , and observe that
where we used Assumption A1. Now let us observe that , thus we can choose such that . Let be such that . By Hölder’s inequality we get
Multiplying both sides of the previous inequality by we get
that implies
Now let us observe that
hence we can choose to be big enough to have
and then is a contraction on . By the contraction theorem (see [48] [Theorem ]), we know that admits a unique fixed point in that we denote . Now we need to extend (in some sense) this solution to the space .
For any , let us define the operator as:
Let us first show that is well defined. Indeed, if and we have
Now let us show that admits a fixed point. Let us consider the function
Let us first show that it is well-posed. Fix and . Then we have
thus is also a fixed point for . Being the fixed point of unique we get
Now let us show that is a fixed point for . To do this, consider any and . Then we have
Being arbitrary we conclude that . Now let us show that is the unique fixed point of . To do this, suppose admits another fixed point . Consider any . Then we have
hence is a fixed point for , thus it holds
Being arbitrary we get for any .
Now, for any stochastic process , let us define the set
Then we can define the operator as
where we recall that A is defined in Equation (24). Let us also define as , so that and . Now let us show that Y is a fixed point for 𝒜. If we get
while for we have and by definition. Hence Y is a fixed point for in . Moreover, by definition, is continuous as and
thus Y is solution of Equation (21).
Now let us show that Y is a Gaussian process. By definition, it is sufficient to show that are Gaussian processes for any . Moreover, since , we can restrict the probability space to without loss of generality. Fix , set and consider the sequence of stochastic processes:
As is a contraction for fixed , we have that pointwise with respect to . Moreover is degenerate, hence . Let us suppose . Then, by Lemma 2 and Remark 16 we have that . By induction, we get that for any and in particular, being the limit of Gaussian processes, . Since is arbitrary we conclude that .
Now let us show the uniqueness of the solution. Let be another solution of Equation (21) and let be the set on which (22) holds for . Let and observe that . Let and observe that
that is, the function is a fixed point of . However, we know that admits a unique fixed point , thus for . In conclusion, we get
Now let us show the last part of the statement of the Theorem. Suppose for some . Then there exists a set with such that for any and any it holds:
for some constant . In particular, if , Equation (26) becomes
Using Y in place of f in the previous inequality and the fact that , we get . On the other hand, if , Equation (26) becomes
thus obtaining, in this case, . This concludes the proof. □
4.3. Speed of Convergence of the Iteration Method
We can use again the contraction theorem to estimate the speed of convergence of the iteration procedure we presented in Theorem 4 in the finite-horizon case.
Proposition 6.
Consider satisfying Assumption A1, , , and a Gaussian random variable independent of G. Consider A as in Equation (24) and define the operator as
where is defined in Equation (25) and is defined in Equation (28). Fix and define for . Consider any , such that and big enough to have
where C and β are defined in Assumption A1. Let be the unique Gaussian solution of Equation (21) and define
Then,
almost surely. As a consequence, for any , it holds
Proof.
First of all, observe that and that for any . Fix . We have shown in Theorem 4 (precisely Equation (27)) that, with our choice of p and , is a contraction on with Lipschitz constant defined in Equation (30). Then, by the contraction theorem (see [48] [Theorem ]), we know that
By using the equivalence relation given in Equation (23) and recognizing , we get
concluding the proof. □
The right-hand side of Equation (32) could be difficult to evaluate explicitly. However, in a particular case, we can provide a less sharp but explicit bound.
Corollary 2.
With the notation of Proposition 6, suppose , is deterministic and G is a martingale with . Set
Then, for any and , it holds
Proof.
Fix (recall that ) and observe that, by the triangular inequality,
Thus, by (31) and recalling the definition of M in Equation (33), we have that
almost surely. Hence, for any , it holds
Consider , so that . Since G is a martingale, is a non-negative integrable submartingale. Thus, by Doob’s inequality (see [49] [Chapter II, Theorem ]),
concluding the proof. □
Remark 18.
If , and is a Brownian motion, then and .
4.4. Estimates on the Moments of Y
Now we want to give some estimates concerning the integrability of the absolute moments of the solution of (21).
Let be the unique solution of (21), as provided in Theorem 4. It being a Gaussian process, we already know that is finite for any and any fixed . First, we want to determine some sufficient conditions under which the function is locally integrable or bounded. Indeed, under some regularity assumptions on the Gaussian noise process G, we have the following result.
Proposition 7.
Consider satisfying Assumption A1 and such that . Then, for any , there exists a constant such that
for , where is the Mittag-Leffler function defined in Equation (20). In particular, if , then .
Proof.
Let us recall that (21) holds almost surely. In particular, applying the absolute value and the expectation operator on both sides of (21), we have
where we also used the triangular inequality.
Setting , we achieve
Fix any and observe that . Then, by the generalized Grönwall inequality in [38] [Theorem ], we get
for some constant , concluding the first part of the proof.
If , fix and consider . Moreover, we have
where the right-hand side is an increasing function. Thus, by [38] [Theorem ] we get
As is arbitrary, we conclude that . □
As a direct consequence of the previous result we have the following Corollary.
Corollary 3.
Consider satisfying Assumption A1, and define for . Suppose and . Then is the unique solution of
that is to say
Proof.
Let us first stress out that is a folded Gaussian variable for each , thus
and, in particular, . By Proposition 7 we have that and then
Taking the expectation on both sides of (21) and using Fubini’s theorem, justified by inequality (36), we get
Observing that and taking the Caputo-type derivative on both sides we see that the function must be a solution of the Cauchy problem (34). Now let us observe that the function
is also solution of the Cauchy problem (34), thus, by uniqueness of global solutions (see [38] [Corollary ]) we conclude the proof. □
The previous Corollary will play a major role in defining generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curves.
The arguments we adopted to show that is locally bounded can be generalized to any absolute p-moment. Indeed, let us consider and . We have the following result.
Proposition 8.
Consider satisfying Assumption A1 and . The following properties hold:
- 1
- Let . If then, for any , it holds ;
- 1
- If and then, for any , it holds .
Proof.
Let us show statement . First, observe that, if we prove , then the statement holds true for any by a simple application of Hölder’s inequality. Hence, we only prove the statement for . Apply the function to both sides Equation (21), use the convexity inequality and Jensen’s inequality and then apply again the expectation operator to get
Fix and set to get
where we also used Assumption A1. Defining and
that is an increasing function, we can rewrite Equation (37) as
By the generalized Grönwall inequality for the fractional integral (see [39] [Corollary 3]) we get
being arbitrary, we conclude the proof of the first statement of the Proposition.
Concerning claim , let us just observe that if , then , thus, by claim , we already know that for any . Now let us consider . Then let us recall that, being a Gaussian random variable, it holds
where is Kummer’s function defined as
and are rising factorials defined as
Let us consider the case in which for some positive integer . Then we have
In this particular case, is a polynomial in the real variables . Precisely, we have (see [50] [Formula ])
where is the Hermite polynomial of degree . Let us recall that the Hermite polynomials are defined as
Thus, being a polynomial function of and , that are both in , we conclude that . Finally, if , then there exists such that and we conclude the proof by Hölder’s inequality. □
5. Generalized Fractional Stochastic Gompertz Curves
5.1. Generalized Fractional Gompertz Curves
Let us first introduce the deterministic generalized fractional Gompertz curves. To do this, let us recall that, in the classical setting, a Gompertz curve is defined as the unique solution of the non-linear ordinary differential equation,
where , that is to say
Its rate function is defined as
and it is the unique solution of
With this auxiliary function, we can recast Gompertz Equation (38) as the following system of bilinear ordinary differential equations
Let us highlight that for any , thus we can recast again (39) to achieve
that is, we have distinguished the two main components of a Gompertz curve by two linear equations:
- The rate function satisfies a non-homogeneous linear differential equation with initial condition ;
- The Gompertz curve itself satisfies a linear equation with respect to the operator ; precisely, it is an eigenfunction with eigenvalue 1 of such operator.
Now that we have two linear equations in system (40), one can apply a fractionalization procedure on each of these equations. In [24] the authors use a Caputo fractional derivative in place of the standard one in the equation of the rate function, obtaining the system,
where . In this case, the rate function and the curve are given by
On the other hand, in [25] the authors propose a Gompertz model in which the fractionalization procedure is applied to the curve equation, obtaining
where . In this case the rate function and the curve are given by
Let us recall that the function
is strictly increasing by Corollary 1 (since it coincides with as , see [40]) and then we can define the function as the inverse of . Thus, the relation that links the rate function with the curve is given by
coherently with the chain rule formula given in Proposition 1.
In [29], both approaches are used, obtaining the system
where , and then the rate function and the curve are given by
Let us emphasize that if we obtain (41) and if we obtain (42). Here we want to extend this approach to the case of any complete Bernstein function.
Definition 12.
For a function we define as the inverse function of , that exists by Corollary 1, if and if .
Let us consider . We define the generalized fractional Gompertz system of generalized fractional orders as the following system of equations
We obtain an explicit expression of both the rate function and the curve by using Propositions 2 and 4 respectively,
and we also have the relation
In particular, if we choose , with , , we obtain again Equation (43).
5.2. Generalized Fractional Stochastic Gompertz Curves
Now that we have defined a generalization of the (deterministic) fractional Gompertz curves introduced in [24,25,29], we want to construct the respective stochastic versions. Here, we will follow a slightly different route compared to [29].
Indeed, let us first give a generalization of the class of lognormal processes, by using the functions defined before.
Definition 13.
Let be a stochastic process with almost surely for any and let . We say that X is a -normal process if the process is a Gaussian process.
Remark 19.
If , the definition coincides with that of the lognormal process.
Now we are ready to define the stochastic version of the generalized fractional Gompertz curve.
Definition 14.
Let and , with a.s., and . Consider the unique solution of
and fix . We call generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curve, with generalized fractional orders and noise process G, the process
and we call its rate process.
Remark 20.
It is easy to see that, by definition, is a -normal process.
Let us first show how such process generalizes the stochastic Gompertz process. Usually, a stochastic Gompertz process is defined via the non-linear stochastic differential equation
where is a standard Brownian motion and is called carrying capacity. It can be shown by a direct application of Itô’s formula (see [11]) that the process is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, solution of the stochastic differential equation
Thus we can equivalently define a stochastic Gompertz process as the process , where is the unique solution of
that is the integral formulation of (47). With this equivalent definition, we can recognize the (classical) stochastic Gompertz curve as a particular case of Definition 14, with and . Moreover, by choosing and , for some , in Definition 14, we obtain the fractional stochastic Gompertz curve defined in [29] [Section ]. On the other hand, the curves defined in [29] [Sections and ] are Gaussian processes and then they cannot be constructed by means of Definition 14.
A first simple but crucial property of the generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curve is shown in the following Proposition.
Proposition 9.
Let be a generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curve. Then for any almost surely.
Proof.
It easily follows from the definition of -normal process and the fact that for any . □
With this idea in mind, we think that the newly proposed stochastic Gompertz curves are better suitable for describing population dynamics than the one proposed in [29] [Sections and ].
As in the classical case, to highlight the link between the generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curves and the deterministic ones, we have to determine the median of such stochastic growth curves. Here, the median of an absolutely continuous real-valued random variable Z is defined as
which is well defined since is continuous. In particular, if the equation
admits a unique solution, then such solution is the median. In the case , the median coincides with . We can use these properties to exploit the median function of a -normal process.
Lemma 3.
Let and be a -normal process with almost surely and . Let be the median of for , with , and let . Then
Proof.
First of all, let us observe that, by definition, . Hence, since a.s., we have that a.s. and . Thus
Now let us consider . Since is a Gaussian random variable, its median coincides with and then
By definition, it holds where is strictly increasing by Corollary 1. In particular, if and only if and then
Now let us consider any other positive value and let . Then, by definition of , we have that if and only if . Moreover, being the inverse of , we have that , otherwise . If we suppose that , then we have
implying , that is a contradiction. Hence (48) holds. □
Now we can show the link between the stochastic growth curves given in Definition 14 and the deterministic ones defined in the previous Subsection.
Theorem 5.
Let be a generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curve with generalized fractional orders , noise process and starting point and denote by its rate process. Let be the median of with and . Then is a generalized fractional Gompertz curve of generalized fractional orders with rate function , that is, is the unique solution of Equation (44).
Proof.
Let us first recall that and by Definition 14. Hence, by Corollary 3, we know that is the unique solution of
that is to say
Now let us stress out that, being , the function is completely monotone (as shown in [36] [Theorem ]) thus, in particular, is strictly increasing and differentiable for all , with .
By Proposition 3 it holds
and then, by Proposition 4, we know that is the unique solution of
concluding the proof. □
6. Conclusions
In this paper, we used the theory of complete Bernstein functions and the tools from generalized fractional calculus to extend the fractional Gompertz curves introduced in [24,25,29]. Precisely, the classical Gompertz equation is decomposed in the rate equation and the curve equation and then a fractionalization (or, in this case, nonlocalization) procedure is applied to both, obtaining the generalized fractional Gompertz curves. For their stochastic counterparts, we first studied in Section 4 a linear integral equation that plays the role of the equation of the rate process and then, in Section 5, we introduced a generalization of lognormal processes to obtain the desired generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curves.
A further extension to other growth curves with different rate functions could rely on nonlinear generalized fractional differential equations. While, on one hand, a theory of nonlinear generalized fractional differential equations is currently being developed (see, for instance [38]), to obtain stochastic growth curves of such type one could need some sort of nonlinear generalized fractional stochastic differential equations. In future works we will focus on generalizations of the Lévy–Liouville fractional Brownian motion (which is different from the well-known Mandelbrot-Van Ness fractional Brownian motion) to consider stochastic differential equations of the aforementioned type (see, for instance [23] for the fractional case). Let us also underline that the approach adopted in Section 4 can be easily extended not only to the multivariate setting, but also to stochastic processes defined on Banach spaces, the latter by using cylindrical noise processes, such as the cylindrical (possibly fractional) Brownian motion (see, for instance [51]). One can also define multivariate -normal distributions by a simple vectorization argument. However, once one moves from the one-dimensional to the n-dimensional setting, the discussion on the median cannot be reproduced as it is, but, instead, one should consider quantile contours (see, for instance [52]).
The models presented in this paper represent a natural step forward from [24,25]. Indeed, while in [24,25] the authors consider only Riesz kernels, here we propose a wide family of memory kernels (of which Riesz kernels are particular cases) that can be used. Moreover, analogously as done in [29] for the deterministic models, here one can consider two different memory kernels acting on the rate function and/or on the curve itself. Concerning the introduction of the noise, let us observe that stochastic models are shown to be useful, for instance, to study random fluctuations in mathematical oncology models (see, e.g., [8,9,10]). In [24] a fractional-order model has been used to describe tumour growth. Both the models presented in [29] and this paper provides some methods to introduce the noise in such fractional-order growth curves. There are three main differences between the present paper and [29]:
- In [29] we considered only couples of Riesz kernels, while here we can consider any couple of suitable memory kernels;
- Independently of the fact that memory effects are introduced in the rate function and/or in the curve, the generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curve presented here is non-negative (as shown in Proposition 9), while this is not true in [29] in the case in which the curve function is defined itself via a fractional differential equation;
- In [29], when the curve is defined via a fractional differential equation, the deterministic model is re-obtained by considering the mean of the stochastic curve. Here, in any case, the deterministic model is provided by the median of the stochastic curve, as in the classic case.
For these reasons, we think that the generalized fractional stochastic Gompertz curves defined in this paper are more realistic and more general models to describe Gompertz-type growth phenomena with memory and noise, thus they represent a step forward with respect to [29]. However, restricting the view to a specific (parametrized) family of Bernstein functions permits a better calibration of the used model. Hence, before using the models we discussed here, it is advisable to consider an ansatz on the couple of Bernstein functions to consider.
In both deterministic and stochastic models, the tools to obtain such generalizations are provided by fractional and generalized fractional calculus, with particular attention to inversion formulae given in [36] and Grönwall-type inequalities (see [38,39]).
Finally, let us remark that the aim of the paper is to present a family of models that can be used for population growth phenomena with memory and/or noise. As evidenced by the cited literature, these kinds of phenomena naturally arise in physics, engineering, biology and social sciences and then more general models are useful tools for improving the knowledge about them.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, G.A. and E.P.; Formal analysis, G.A.; Methodology, G.A. and E.P.; Supervision, E.P. Both authors equally contributed to the paper. Both authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research is partially supported by MIUR-PRIN 2017, project “Stochastic Models for Complex Systems” grant number 2017JFFHSH. The first author is partially supported by INdAM Gruppo Nazionale per l’Analisi Matematica, la Probabilità e le loro Applicazioni. The second author is partially supported by INdAM Gruppo Nazionale per il Calcolo Scientifico.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement
Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement
Not applicable.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the referees for their useful suggestions.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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