Climate, Volume 10, Issue 5 (May 2022) – 17 articles

This manuscript focuses on the need for tailoring flood assessment products to decision making within the humanitarian sector. Decision-makers often struggle to extract all of the information contained in scientific products, either because they come from different fields of expertise or because they have different needs that are not captured in the results or the processing of the data. Here we define the key elements of a flood assessment product designed for the humanitarian sector. From a remote sensing perspective, in order to assess flooding, the measurement sampling properties, i.e., spatial resolution and temporal repeat, are key. We have therefore implemented a methodology through the processing and interpretation of the measurements from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission. CYGNSS measurements are usually parametrized in various possible observables. Those observables are then linked to the surface characteristics, such as, in this case, the presence of inundation in the CYGNSS footprint. Our methodology includes the variability of the pixels in landscapes with infrastructure, rivers, agricultural fields, rural areas, and other elements characteristic of the agricultural-urban interface. We provide an original methodology that uses CYGNSS mission bistatic radar measurements and an artificial intelligence classification algorithm based on statistical properties of the land pixels through a k-means clustering strategy to detect and monitor flooding events, as well as to characterize the land surface prior to and post flooding events. The novel methodology to derive a flooding product is then evaluated towards the needs of the humanitarian sector by a cognizant link (a translator) between technologists or scientists and decision-makers. The inclusion of humanitarian needs into product development following the advice of a cognizant link is novel to the applications developed employing GNSS bistatic radar data. Full article

The cold chain—the system of refrigerated storage and transport that provides fresh produce or other essentials to be maintained at desired temperatures and environmental conditions—is responsible for substantial energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and failures in the cold chain lead to food and energy waste. Here, we introduce the mini container concept as an alternative to conventional reefers, particularly for small growers. Mini containers are relatively small, insulated boxes, with environmental conditions controlled by an electric-powered central driving unit, which can be aggregated as needed and transported by non-refrigerated trucks and trailers. We analyze the energy consumption and GHG emissions for the transport of tomatoes in two cities representing contrasting climates, Phoenix, Arizona, and Chicago, Illinois, for conventional reefers and the proposed mini containers. These two cities provide the opportunity to compare the energy consumption and GHG emissions for the proposed mini containers versus conventional refrigerated transport under extremely different climate conditions. The results show that, as expected in both cases, as the ambient air temperature increases, the energy consumption and GHG emissions also increase. For partial reefer loads less than 72% and 85% for Phoenix and Chicago, respectively, the use of the mini containers reduces energy consumption and GHG emissions because of the reduced volume requiring refrigeration. In general, since the mini containers are fully electrified, their corresponding GHG emissions can be dramatically reduced, and since the fresh produce can be pre-cooled with renewable energy, GHG emissions can even be eliminated. Full article

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to grow persistently since 1750. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force in 1994 to stabilize GHG emissions. Since then, the increasingly harmful impacts of global climate change and repeated scientific warnings about future risks have not been enough to change the emissions trend and enforce policy actions. This paper synthesizes the climate change challenges and the insofar insufficient mitigation responses via an integrated literature review. The fossil industry, mainstream economic thinking, national rather than international interests, and political strive for short-term interests present key barriers to climate mitigation. A continuation of such trends is reflected in the Dice model, leading to a 3.5 °C temperature increase by 2100. Despite receiving the Nobel Prize for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis via the Dice model, increases in global mean temperatures overshooting the 1.5 °C to 2 °C Paris targets imply an intensified disruption in the human–climate system. Past and present policy delays and climate disruption pave the way for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering solutions with largely unknown and potentially dangerous side effects. This paper argues against SRM geoengineering and evaluates critical mitigation solutions leading to a decrease in global temperatures without overshooting the Paris targets. The essential drivers and barriers are discussed through a unified approach to tipping points in the human–climate system. The scientific literature presents many economically and technologically viable solutions and the policy and measures required to implement them. The present paper identifies the main barriers to integrating them in a globally cooperative way, presenting an efficient, long-term, and ethical policy approach to climate change. Full article

The northeast region of Côte d’Ivoire, where agriculture is the main economic activity, is potentially vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions. This study aims to make a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of trends in extreme indices related to precipitation and temperature for the Zanzan region of Côte d’Ivoire over the period of 1981–2020. The statistical significance of the calculated trends was assessed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, while Sen’s slope estimation was used to define the amount of change. For extreme precipitations, the results showed a decreasing trend in annual total precipitations estimated at 112.37 mm and in daily precipitations intensity indices. Furthermore, the consecutive dry days’ index showed an increasing trend estimated at 18.67 days. Unlike the trends in precipitation extremes, which showed statistically non-significant trends, the trends in temperature extremes were mostly significant over the entire study area. The cold spells indices all show decreasing trends, while the warm spells show increasing trends. Drawing inferences from the results, it becomes clear that the study area may be threatened by food insecurity and water scarcity. The results are aimed to support climate adaptation efforts and policy intervention in the region. Full article

Systematic changes, since the beginning of the 20th century, in average and extreme Australian rainfall and temperatures indicate that Southern Australian climate has undergone regime transitions into a drier and warmer state. South-west Western Australia (SWWA) experienced the most dramatic drying trend with average streamflow into Perth dams, in the last decade, just 20% of that before the 1960s and extreme, decile 10, rainfall reduced to near zero. In south-eastern Australia (SEA) systematic decreases in average and extreme cool season rainfall became evident in the late 1990s with a halving of the area experiencing average decile 10 rainfall in the early 21st century compared with that for the 20th century. The shift in annual surface temperatures over SWWA and SEA, and indeed for Australia as a whole, has occurred primarily over the last 20 years with the percentage area experiencing extreme maximum temperatures in decile 10 increasing to an average of more than 45% since the start of the 21st century compared with less than 3% for the 20th century mean. Average maximum temperatures have also increased by circa 1 °C for SWWA and SEA over the last 20 years. The climate changes in rainfall an d temperatures are associated with atmospheric circulation shifts. Full article

Tree mortality in Sierra Nevada’s 2012–2015 drought was unexpectedly excessive: ~152 million trees died. The relative performance of five drought indices (DIs: SPEI, AI, PDSI, scPDSI, and PHDI) was evaluated in the complex, upland terrain which supports the forest and supplies 60% of Californian water use. We tested the relative performance of DIs parameterized with on-site and modeled (PRISM) meteorology using streamflow (linear correlation), and modeled forest stand NDVI and tree basal area increment (BAI) with current and lagged year DI. For BAI, additional co-variates that could modify tree response to the environment were included (crown vigor, point-in-time rate of bole growth, and tree to tree competition). On-site and modeled parameterizations of DIs were strongly correlated (0.9), but modeled parameterizations overestimated water availability. Current year DIs were well correlated (0.7–0.9) with streamflow, with physics-based DIs performing better than pedologically-based DIs. DIs were poorly correlated (0.2–0.3) to forest stand NDVI in these variable-density, pine-dominated forests. Current and prior year DIs were significant covariates in the model for BAI but accounted for little of the variation in the model. In this ecosystem where trees shift seasonally between near-surface to regolithic water, DIs were poorly suited for anticipating the observed tree decline. Full article

Rice planthoppers are common insect pests in Taiwan, and they have caused significant damage in the past. The majority of rice planthoppers have seen a drastic decline in their population since the mid-2000s, a trend that has anecdotally attributed to widespread and better pest control, as well as improved rice cultivation management. By analyzing 40 years of the airborne net trap data of rice planthoppers collected in Southwest Taiwan, it was found that the pests’ yearly population, computed with a logarithmic transformation, resembles a signature climate pattern in the global oceans with a robust multi-decadal variability. An ocean temperature-based index derived from the patterns of multi-decadal variability shows a marked resemblance with the population change of common rice planthoppers, with overlapping peaks during the 1990–2010 period. The climate dynamics associated with the regional weather pattern in the vicinity of Taiwan are discussed. Phase reversal of this multi-decadal climate variability in the future may produce favorable climatic conditions for the rice planthopper population to increase back to its historical levels. Full article

The complex attribution of climatic, hydrologic, and anthropogenic drivers to vegetation and agricultural production and their consequential societal impacts are not well understood, especially in socioeconomically sensitive states like Maharashtra, India. Here, we analyzed trends and variability in the MODIS leaf area index (LAI) time series, along with spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation, groundwater storage, agriculture statistics, and irrigation infrastructure, to identify their influences on the vegetation response and discuss their implications for farmers. The state showed greening in all biomes except forests, with a net gain of 17.478 × 10³ km² of leaf area during 2003–2019, where more than 70% of the trend in LAI is represented in croplands. Maximum greening was observed in irrigated croplands, attributable to increased crop productivity, whereas inadequate irrigation facilities with erratic rainfall patterns and droughts were primarily responsible for cropland browning. We discerned the dynamics and variability of vegetation response by incorporating a spectrum of synergistic feedbacks from multiple confounding drivers and found that uneven distribution of water availability across the administrative divisions governed the quantitative distinction in leaf area change. Despite the observed greening trends, the state witnessed a high number of farmer suicides related to droughts and agriculture failures hampering their socioeconomic security; therefore, improved irrigation infrastructure and comprehensive policy interventions are crucial for abatement of farmer distress. Full article

The tank cascade system, which emerged as early as the fifth century BC in Sri Lanka’s dry zone, has been portrayed as one of the oldest water management practices in the world. However, its important function as flood management has not yet been thoroughly examined. In this paper, we argue that the main principle behind the tank cascade system is not only to recycle and reuse water resources by taking advantage of natural landscapes but also to control floods. This paper examines the evolution of traditional water management and flood mitigation techniques that flourished in pre-colonial Sri Lanka. This historical examination also sheds light on recent policies that exhibited renewed interests in revitalizing some aspects of the tank cascade system in Sri Lanka’s dry zone. This paper shows how ancient Sinhalese engineers and leaders incorporated traditional scientific and engineering knowledge into flood mitigation by engendering a series of innovations for land use planning, embankment designs, and water storage technologies. It also discusses how this system was governed by both kingdoms and local communities. Water management and flood control were among the highest priorities in urban planning and management. The paper thus discusses how, for centuries, local communities successfully sustained the tank cascade system through localized governance, which recent revitalized traditional water management projects often lack. Full article

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has become a focus of concern for society, mainly due to its impacts on daily lives. Despite being a global issue that affects the entire planet, these effects are not felt in the same way in all regions, so the analysis of processes from a regional or local perspective allows a better adaptation of populations to the new reality, as well as being used as a supporting tool for decision making when implementing mitigation measures. For the present analysis, a region in Northern Portugal was chosen, which is in the Mediterranean region, considered one of the hot spots for climate change. In this region of Entre Douro e Minho, more specifically in the municipality of Guimarães, the climate of the last centuries was reconstructed based on documentary information and recent data collected and modeled for the region under study. The results show a successive alternation of hot and dry periods with colder and wetter ones, where climate instability seems to be the dominant trend over the last thousand years. Currently, with the advent of a new period of climatic instability, which, unlike the periods verified previously, now have an anthropic origin, there is a tendency for a new period to occur, in which conditions will tend to be hotter and drier. Knowing this trend in advance allows informed decisions to be made to mitigate some problems that can be associated with these conditions, such as the increase in the risk of wildfires, the proliferation of invasive species, the decrease in agriculture and forests productivity, or even the occurrence of extreme weather events. Full article

Impact Forecasting has developed a catastrophe flood model for Czechia to estimate insurance losses. The model is built on a dataset of 12,066 years of daily rainfall and temperature data for the European area, representing the current climate (LAERTES-EU). This dataset was used as input to the rainfall–runoff model, resulting in a series of daily river channel discharges. Using analyses of global and regional climate models dealing with the impacts of climate change, this dataset was adjusted for the individual RCP climate scenarios in Europe. The river channel discharges were then re-derived using the already calibrated rainfall–runoff models. Based on the changed discharges, alternative versions of the standard catastrophe flood model for the Czechia were created for the various climate scenarios. In outputs, differences in severity, intensity, and number of events might be observed, as well as the size of storms. The effect on the losses might be investigated by probable maximum losses (PML) curves and average annual loss (AAL) values. For return period 1 in 5 years for the worst-case scenario, the differences can be up to +125 percent increase in insurance losses, while for the return period 1 in 100 years it is a −40 percent decrease. There is no significant effect of adaptation measures for the return period 1 in 100 years, but there is a −20 percent decrease in the return period 1 in 5 years. Full article

This paper deals with the climate in the former Grand Duchy of Transylvania, now one of the three major geographical provinces of Romania, within the so-called Maunder Minimum (MM) (1645–1715), an astrophysically defined part of the Little Ice Age (LIA), which was characterized by reduced solar activity. The historical data from Transylvania are compared with that from Germany, Austria and Switzerland. This comparison for the period 1645–1715 shows good agreement but also reveals geographic characteristics of the region. For the first time, we present here a comparison between the four geographic areas in text and tabular form. Quotes from mostly German-language sources are reproduced in English translation. The results clearly help to identify regional climatic differences during the MM. Furthermore, we examine for a longer period (1500–1950) the extent to which the climate of Transylvania might have been affected by long-term fluctuations in solar activity, as deduced from isotopic reconstructions from ice cores. This way we compared astrophysical conditions with climatological ones in order to see if any probable relations do indeed show up. This comparison suggests a certain solar influence but the agreement is not very pronounced. Future investigation in a pan-European context is needed to reach reliable statements. Some results are unexpected—such as an unusually small number of severe winters during the last decades of the MM, where extreme cold was restricted to a few years, like the extreme winters 1699/1700 and 1708/1709. Full article

High quality and long-term precipitation data are required to study the variability and trends of rainfall and the impact of climate change. In developing countries like Morocco, the quality of climate data collected from various weather stations faces numerous obstacles. This paper presents methods for collecting, correcting, reconstructing, and homogenizing precipitation series of Morocco’s Fez-Meknes region from 1961 to 2019. Data collected from national specialized agencies based on 83 rain gauge stations was processed through an algorithm specially designed for the homogenization of climatic data (Climatol). We applied the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to raw and homogenized data to calculate rainfall trend magnitudes and significance. The homogenization process allows for the detection of a larger number of stations with statistically significant negative trends with 95% and 90% confidence levels, particularly in the mountain ranges, that threatens the main sources of water in the largest watershed in the country. The regionalization of our rain gauge stations is highlighted and compared to previous studies. The monthly and annual means of raw and homogenized data show minor differences over the three main climate zones of the region. Full article

Several studies examine cycle periods and the interactions between the three major climate modes over the North Atlantic, namely the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Here, we use a relatively novel high-resolution Lead–lag (LL) method to identify short time windows with persistent LL relations in the three series during the period from 1947 to 2020. We find that there are roughly 20-year time windows where LL relations change direction at both interannual, high-frequency and multidecadal, low-frequency timescales. However, with varying LL strength, the AMO leads AMOC for the full period at the interannual timescale. During the period from 1980 to 2000, we had the sequence NAO→AMO→AMOC→NAO at the interannual timescale. For the full period in the decadal time scale, we obtain NAO→AMO→AMOC. The Ekman variability closely follows the NAO variability. Both single time series and the LL relation between pairs of series show pseudo-oscillating patterns with cycle periods of about 20 years. We list possible mechanisms that contribute to the cyclic behavior, but no conclusive evidence has yet been found. Full article

Climate change-related hazards will aggravate and impact differently on urban societies. Although early warning systems will be important for reducing the hazard risks in cities, the nature of early warning systems that are available to residents of informal settlements remains less understood. This paper aimed to assess the early warning systems through which informal dwellers reduce their hazard risks in an African city. Using Accra as the case, data were collected from 582 households using a structured questionnaire along with 25 institutional key informant interviews and 14 focus discussions with state and settlement actors in this study. Findings of the paper show that a mix of formal and informal early warning systems are utilized by residents of informal settlements, but the majority of them perceived state disaster management institutions as not performing optimally in their resident settlements. The nature of land ownership in the informal settlements influenced their political exclusion and state institutions’ decisions not to locate weather monitoring equipment in their settlements. Respondents without the security of land tenure perceived state disaster management institutions as not performing optimally, which negatively affects their capacity to respond to climate change-related hazards. The paper thus recommends the incorporation of informal early warning systems into city-wide hazard early warning systems through participatory planning in Accra and similar contexts. Future scholars may extend this discourse by examining the effect of the use of informal early warning systems on the uptake of formal hazard early warning sources in informal settlements. Full article

Aerosols and in particular their black carbon (BC) content influence the atmospheric heating rate and fog dissipation. Substantial improvements have been introduced to the solar scheme of the computational fluid dynamic model code_saturne to estimate fluxes and heating rates in the atmosphere. This solar scheme is applied to a well-documented case of a fog that evolves into a low stratus cloud. Different sensitivity tests are conducted. They show that aerosols have a major effect with an overestimation of the direct solar fluxes by 150 W m${}^{-2}$ when aerosols are not considered and a reduction of the heating of the layers. Aerosols lead to an increase of the heating rate by as much as 55% in the solar infrared (SIR) band and 100% in the Ultra-Violet visible (UV-vis) band. Taking into account the fraction of BC in cloud droplets also accentuates the heating in the layers at the top of the fog layer where water liquid content is maximum. When the BC fraction in cloud droplets is equal to 8.6 × 10${}^{-6}$, there is an increase of approximately 7.3 °C/day in the layers. Increasing the BC fraction leads to an increase of this heating in the layer, especially in the UV-vis band. Full article