Assessing the Impacts of Urban Expansion and Climate Variability on Water Resource Sustainability in Chihuahua City

The water sustainability in Chihuahua City is challenged by rapid urbanization, population growth, industrial expansion, and climate variability. This study examines how these factors impact water demand by analyzing six decades of local precipitation, extreme temperature, demographic, and water consumption data. Statistical methods (time series and gamma distribution with R-package) and spatial analysis using Landsat and Spot satellite imagery were employed. Chihuahua’s urban area grew at an average annual rate of 7.4% from 1992 to 2020. Minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.07 °C and 0.05 °C per year, respectively, leading to more frequent heatwaves over the past 30 years. Since the 1990s, there has been a noticeable trend towards more frequent extreme precipitation events coinciding with a sustained rise in extreme temperatures. Urban expansion and rising temperatures have increased water consumption by approximately 40% per °C over the past 30 years, accelerating the depletion of groundwater reserves in the city’s three main aquifers. These trends highlight the urgent need for integrated urban planning and climate-adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability and ensure long-term water security for Chihuahua.