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16 November 2025

Rainfall-Induced Landslide Prediction Models, Part I: Empirical–Statistical and Physically Based Causative Thresholds

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Department of Building and Real Estate, Faculty of Construction and Environment, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China
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Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt
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Department of Architecture and Building Science, College of Architecture and Planning, King Saud University, Riyadh 11362, Saudi Arabia
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Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water2025, 17(22), 3273;https://doi.org/10.3390/w17223273 
(registering DOI)
This article belongs to the Special Issue Rainfall-Induced Landslides: Influencing, Modelling and Hazard Assessment: 2nd Edition

Abstract

Introduction and Problem Statement: Landslides represent a significant geological hazard worldwide. One of the primary triggers for these landslides is rainfall, which is becoming more intense as a result of climate change. The available literature has produced extensive research. However, this largely overlooks the use of mixed methodologies. Furthermore, a comprehensive review combining empirical, physically based, deterministic, and phenomenological models is still rare. Objective and Method: This study (Part I of a two-part review) addresses this gap by employing a mixed review that integrates quantitative scientometric analysis with a qualitative systematic review. The primary objective of Part I is to deliver a critical assessment, focusing on empirical and physically based causative threshold models. Main Results and Validation: Macroscopically, our analysis reveals that antecedent rainfall is a more robust indicator than classical intensity–duration (I-D) thresholds, though the latter remains widely used due to its simplicity. Physically based models provide a critical bridge when geotechnical data is scarce, correlating rainfall with internal slope responses like displacement. At a microscopic level, hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) models consistently demonstrate superior predictive accuracy by capturing complex, nonlinear relationships missed by simpler models. These findings are validated through a systematic evaluation of performance metrics across the reviewed literature. Main Conclusions and Significance: We conclude that while empirical thresholds offer operational simplicity, the future of accurate prediction lies in sophisticated hybrid AI models trained on extensive monitoring data. This review synthesizes fragmented knowledge into a unified framework, providing a clear roadmap for model selection.

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