Potential Habitat Suitability Analysis Under Climate Change for the Native Grass, Kengyilia thoroldiana, on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Kengyilia thoroldiana (Oliv.) J. L. Yang, C. Yen, and B. R. Baum (K. thoroldiana) is a dominant species in the desertification area of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. In this study, based on 88 sample points of K. thoroldiana, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method was used to analyze the current dominant factors of the distribution area of K. thoroldiana and predict its potential distribution. The results showed that the training and test data area under the curve (AUC) were 0.934 and 0.944, which indicated the reliability of the predicted results. Based on climatic variables and the results of the “Jackknife” method, the results showed that temperature was the main driver of K. thoroldiana’s distribution. By simulating the potential distribution of K. thoroldiana, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the west, south, and southeast of Qinghai, southwest Gansu, and eastern Tibet. In future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for K. thoroldiana showed an expanding trend. According to the Sustainable Development (SSP126) scenario, the highly suitable areas could increase by 4.72% from 2021 to 2040 compared with the current climate scenario, and the highly suitable areas could increase by 12.71% from 2041 to 2060. An increase in the suitable areas of K. thoroldiana is essential for the ecological restoration of degraded grasslands.