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Sustainability
Volume 11
Issue 3
10.3390/su11030793
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Article

Development of Fuzzy Time Series Model for Hotel Occupancy Forecasting

by
Rashad Aliyev
1,*,
Sara Salehi
1 and
Rafig Aliyev
2
1
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta 99628, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey
2
Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(3), 793; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030793
Submission received: 28 December 2018 / Revised: 19 January 2019 / Accepted: 29 January 2019 / Published: 2 February 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Application of Time Series Analyses in Business)
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Abstract

Receiving appropriate forecast accuracy is important in many countries’ economic activities, and developing effective and precise time series model is critical issue in tourism demand forecasting. In this paper, fuzzy rule-based system model for hotel occupancy forecasting is developed by analyzing 40 months’ time series data and applying fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. Based on the values of root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error which are metrics for measuring forecast accuracy, it is defined that the model with 7 clusters and 4 inputs is the optimal forecasting model for hotel occupancy.
Keywords: time series; forecasting; fuzzy c-means clustering; fuzzy rule-based system; Mamdani model time series; forecasting; fuzzy c-means clustering; fuzzy rule-based system; Mamdani model

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MDPI and ACS Style

Aliyev, R.; Salehi, S.; Aliyev, R. Development of Fuzzy Time Series Model for Hotel Occupancy Forecasting. Sustainability 2019, 11, 793. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030793

AMA Style

Aliyev R, Salehi S, Aliyev R. Development of Fuzzy Time Series Model for Hotel Occupancy Forecasting. Sustainability. 2019; 11(3):793. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030793

Chicago/Turabian Style

Aliyev, Rashad, Sara Salehi, and Rafig Aliyev. 2019. "Development of Fuzzy Time Series Model for Hotel Occupancy Forecasting" Sustainability 11, no. 3: 793. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030793

APA Style

Aliyev, R., Salehi, S., & Aliyev, R. (2019). Development of Fuzzy Time Series Model for Hotel Occupancy Forecasting. Sustainability, 11(3), 793. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030793

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