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Open AccessArticle

Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

1
Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
2
Physiological Controls Research Center, Óbuda University, 1034 Budapest, Hungary
3
Department of Public Health, Government Office of Capital City Budapest, 1034 Budapest, Hungary
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Viruses 2020, 12(7), 708; https://doi.org/10.3390/v12070708
Received: 31 May 2020 / Revised: 25 June 2020 / Accepted: 26 June 2020 / Published: 30 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Computational Biology of Viruses: From Molecules to Epidemics)
COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.
Keywords: COVID-19, epidemic, Hungary, under-ascertainment, SARS-CoV-2, compartmental model, reproduction number, intervention, case fatality rate COVID-19, epidemic, Hungary, under-ascertainment, SARS-CoV-2, compartmental model, reproduction number, intervention, case fatality rate
MDPI and ACS Style

Röst, G.; Bartha, F.A.; Bogya, N.; Boldog, P.; Dénes, A.; Ferenci, T.; Horváth, K.J.; Juhász, A.; Nagy, C.; Tekeli, T.; Vizi, Z.; Oroszi, B. Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios. Viruses 2020, 12, 708.

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