Climate Change Drives Adaptive Distribution and Corridor Identification of the Endangered Rhodiola Species on the Tibetan Plateau

Climate change significantly impacts the survival and distribution of alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau. Endangered Rhodiola species, represented by Rhodiola crenulata (Hook. f. & Thomson) H. Ohba and Rhodiola tangutica (Maxim.) S.H. Fu. are highly sensitive to climate change. Modeling their adaptive distribution and identifying ecological corridors are crucial for developing conservation strategies. Using the biomod2 platform and the MCR model, this study projects the potential geographical distribution of the two Rhodiola species under current and future climate scenarios and further identifies key ecological corridors. The results indicate that under current climate conditions, Rhodiola crenulata is mainly distributed in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau, while Rhodiola tangutica is primarily concentrated in the northeastern region. Temperature, precipitation, and elevation are identified as key environmental drivers influencing their distribution. Under future climate scenarios, the total adaptive area of Rhodiola crenulata is projected to expand. The most significant expansion, reaching 22%, is projected under the SSP585 scenario in the 2090s. In contrast, the total adaptive area of Rhodiola tangutica is expected to contract, with a reduction of 2.99% under the SSP585 scenario in the 2070s. Based on the migration trends of the two species, ecological corridors suitable for development, such as primary corridors and secondary corridors, were established to support species migration and biodiversity conservation. By integrating species distribution models with the MCR model, this study provides a scientific basis for the conservation of endangered Rhodiola species under climate change.