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Materials 2019, 12(2), 202;

Enabling Demand Side Management: Heat Demand Forecasting at City Level

Control Engineering, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 4300, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 November 2018 / Revised: 28 December 2018 / Accepted: 4 January 2019 / Published: 9 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Control in the Energy Sector)
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Implementation of new energy efficiency measures for the heating and building sectors is of utmost importance. Demand side management offers means to involve individual buildings in the optimization of the heat demand at city level to improve energy efficiency. In this work, two models were applied to forecast the heat demand from individual buildings up to a city-wide area. District heating data at the city level from more than 4000 different buildings was utilized in the validation of the forecast models. Forecast simulations with the applied models and measured data showed that, during the heating season, the relative error of the city level heat demand forecast for 48 h was 4% on average. In individual buildings, the accuracy of the models varied based on the building type and heat demand pattern. The forecasting accuracy, the limited amount of measurement information and the short time required for model calibration enable the models to be applied to the whole building stock. This should enable demand side management and lead to the predictive optimization of heat demand at city level, leading to increased energy efficiency. View Full-Text
Keywords: district heating; heat demand; prediction; building; parameter estimation; demand response; NARX district heating; heat demand; prediction; building; parameter estimation; demand response; NARX

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Hietaharju, P.; Ruusunen, M.; Leiviskä, K. Enabling Demand Side Management: Heat Demand Forecasting at City Level. Materials 2019, 12, 202.

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