Capacity Configuration Method for Hydro-Wind-Solar-Storage Systems Considering Cooperative Game Theory and Grid Congestion

Integrated hydro-wind-solar-storage (HWSS) bases are pivotal for advancing new power systems under the low carbon goals. However, the independent decision-making of diverse generation investors, coupled with limited transmission capacity, often leads to a dilemma in which individually rational decisions lead to collectively suboptimal outcomes, undermining overall benefits. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel cooperative game-based method that seamlessly integrates grid congestion into capacity allocation and benefit distribution. First, a bi-level optimization model is developed, where a congestion penalty is explicitly embedded into the cooperative game’s characteristic function to quantify the maximum benefits under different coalition structures. Second, an improved Shapley value model is introduced, incorporating a comprehensive correction factor that synthesizes investment risk, congestion mitigation contribution, and capacity scale to overcome the fairness limitations of the classical method. Third, a case study of a high-renewable-energy base in Qinghai is conducted. The results demonstrate that the proposed cooperative model increases total system revenue by 20.1%, while dramatically reducing congestion costs and wind/solar curtailment rates by 86.2% and 79.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the improved Shapley value ensures a fairer distribution, appropriately increasing the profit shares for hydropower (from 28.5% to 32.1%) and energy storage, thereby enhancing coalition stability. This research provides a theoretical foundation and practical decision-making tool for the collaborative planning of HWSS bases with multiple investors.