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Probabilistic Power Flow for Hybrid AC/DC Grids with Ninth-Order Polynomial Normal Transformation and Inherited Latin Hypercube Sampling

1
Grid Planning and Research Center, Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, CSG, Guangzhou 510080, China
2
Power and Energy Reliability Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2019, 12(16), 3088; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163088
Received: 22 June 2019 / Revised: 22 July 2019 / Accepted: 23 July 2019 / Published: 10 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modern Power System Dynamics, Stability and Control)
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Abstract

This paper proposes a new probabilistic power flow method for the hybrid AC/VSC-MTDC (Voltage Source Control-Multiple Terminal Direct Current) grids, which is based on the combination of ninth-order polynomial normal transformation (NPNT) and inherited Latin hypercube sampling (ILHS) techniques. NPNT is utilized to directly handle historical records of uncertain sources to build the accurate probability model of random inputs, and ILHS is adopted to propagate the randomness from inputs to target outputs. Regardless of whether the underlying probability distribution is known or unknown, the proposed method has the ability to adaptively evaluate the sample size according to a specific operational scenario of the power systems, thus achieving a good balance between computational accuracy and speed. Meanwhile, the frequency histograms, probability distributions, and some more statistics of the results can be accurately and efficiently estimated as well. The modified IEEE 118-bus system, together with the realistic data of wind speeds and diverse consumer behaviors following irregular distributions, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method. View Full-Text
Keywords: probabilistic power flow; AC/VSC-MTDC hybrid grids; uncertainty; ninth-order polynomial normal transformation; inherited Latin hypercube sampling probabilistic power flow; AC/VSC-MTDC hybrid grids; uncertainty; ninth-order polynomial normal transformation; inherited Latin hypercube sampling
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Peng, S.; Chen, H.; Lin, Y.; Shu, T.; Lin, X.; Tang, J.; Li, W.; Wu, W. Probabilistic Power Flow for Hybrid AC/DC Grids with Ninth-Order Polynomial Normal Transformation and Inherited Latin Hypercube Sampling. Energies 2019, 12, 3088.

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