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Article

A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021

by 1,2
1
Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka 565-0871, Japan
2
Cabinet Secretariat, Tokyo 100-8968, Japan
Academic Editors: Andrea Trevisan, Chiara Bertoncello and Marco Fonzo
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19(2), 880; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880
Received: 6 December 2021 / Revised: 8 January 2022 / Accepted: 10 January 2022 / Published: 13 January 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Vector-Borne Diseases and Public Health)
Aiming to identify the potentially reduced malaria cases by stagnation of international traffic after the COVID-19 pandemic, a longitudinal analysis of malaria cases as well as entries of Japanese and foreigners was conducted using data from 5 April 1999 to 30 September 2021 in Japan. Multivariable risk ratios were calculated with the Poison regression model as a predictive model of malaria cases by the number of entries for Japanese and foreigners. A generalized regression model was used to examine an association of time trend with entries for Japanese and foreigners using data before 2019, to estimate the potentially reduced number of entries after 2020. The potentially reduced number of malaria cases was estimated by the potentially reduced number of entries for Japanese and foreigners after 2020 using a multivariable Poison regression model. The multivariable risk ratio (95% confidence intervals) of malaria case numbers per 100,000 persons increment of entries per day was 3.41 (1.50–7.77) for Japanese and 1.47 (0.92–2.35) for foreigners. During 2020, a potential reduction of 28 (95% confidence limit: 22–34) malaria cases was estimated, which accounted for 58% (52–63%) of malaria cases in Japan. These finding suggest that the stagnation of international traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of malaria cases in Japan. This model may be helpful for countries without indigenous malaria to predict future trends of imported malaria cases. View Full-Text
Keywords: international traffic; malaria; COVID-19; Japan international traffic; malaria; COVID-19; Japan
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MDPI and ACS Style

Noda, H. A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 880. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880

AMA Style

Noda H. A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(2):880. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880

Chicago/Turabian Style

Noda, Hiroyuki. 2022. "A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 2: 880. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19020880

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