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Search Results (1,380)

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Keywords = wind power prediction

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28 pages, 4460 KiB  
Article
New Protocol for Hydrogen Refueling Station Operation
by Carlos Armenta-Déu
Future Transp. 2025, 5(3), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp5030096 (registering DOI) - 1 Aug 2025
Abstract
This work proposes a new method to refill fuel cell electric vehicle hydrogen tanks from a storage system in hydrogen refueling stations. The new method uses the storage tanks in cascade to supply hydrogen to the refueling station dispensers. This method reduces the [...] Read more.
This work proposes a new method to refill fuel cell electric vehicle hydrogen tanks from a storage system in hydrogen refueling stations. The new method uses the storage tanks in cascade to supply hydrogen to the refueling station dispensers. This method reduces the hydrogen compressor power requirement and the energy consumption for refilling the vehicle tank; therefore, the proposed alternative design for hydrogen refueling stations is feasible and compatible with low-intensity renewable energy sources like solar photovoltaic, wind farms, or micro-hydro plants. Additionally, the cascade method supplies higher pressure to the dispenser throughout the day, thus reducing the refueling time for specific vehicle driving ranges. The simulation shows that the energy saving using the cascade method achieves 9% to 45%, depending on the vehicle attendance. The hydrogen refueling station design supports a daily vehicle attendance of 9 to 36 with a complete refueling process coverage. The carried-out simulation proves that the vehicle tank achieves the maximum attainable pressure of 700 bars with a storage system of six tanks. The data analysis shows that the daily hourly hydrogen demand follows a sinusoidal function, providing a practical tool to predict the hydrogen demand for any vehicle attendance, allowing the planners and station designers to resize the elements to fulfill the new requirements. The proposed system is also applicable to hydrogen ICE vehicles. Full article
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21 pages, 4147 KiB  
Article
OLTEM: Lumped Thermal and Deep Neural Model for PMSM Temperature
by Yuzhong Sheng, Xin Liu, Qi Chen, Zhenghao Zhu, Chuangxin Huang and Qiuliang Wang
AI 2025, 6(8), 173; https://doi.org/10.3390/ai6080173 - 31 Jul 2025
Abstract
Background and Objective: Temperature management is key for reliable operation of permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs). The lumped-parameter thermal network (LPTN) is fast and interpretable but struggles with nonlinear behavior under high power density. We propose OLTEM, a physics-informed deep model that combines [...] Read more.
Background and Objective: Temperature management is key for reliable operation of permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs). The lumped-parameter thermal network (LPTN) is fast and interpretable but struggles with nonlinear behavior under high power density. We propose OLTEM, a physics-informed deep model that combines LPTN with a thermal neural network (TNN) to improve prediction accuracy while keeping physical meaning. Methods: OLTEM embeds LPTN into a recurrent state-space formulation and learns three parameter sets: thermal conductance, inverse thermal capacitance, and power loss. Two additions are introduced: (i) a state-conditioned squeeze-and-excitation (SC-SE) attention that adapts feature weights using the current temperature state, and (ii) an enhanced power-loss sub-network that uses a deep MLP with SC-SE and non-negativity constraints. The model is trained and evaluated on the public Electric Motor Temperature dataset (Paderborn University/Kaggle). Performance is measured by mean squared error (MSE) and maximum absolute error across permanent-magnet, stator-yoke, stator-tooth, and stator-winding temperatures. Results: OLTEM tracks fast thermal transients and yields lower MSE than both the baseline TNN and a CNN–RNN model for all four components. On a held-out generalization set, MSE remains below 4.0 °C2 and the maximum absolute error is about 4.3–8.2 °C. Ablation shows that removing either SC-SE or the enhanced power-loss module degrades accuracy, confirming their complementary roles. Conclusions: By combining physics with learned attention and loss modeling, OLTEM improves PMSM temperature prediction while preserving interpretability. This approach can support motor thermal design and control; future work will study transfer to other machines and further reduce short-term errors during abrupt operating changes. Full article
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20 pages, 3940 KiB  
Article
24 Hours Ahead Forecasting of the Power Consumption in an Industrial Pig Farm Using Deep Learning
by Boris Evstatiev, Nikolay Valov, Katerina Gabrovska-Evstatieva, Irena Valova, Tsvetelina Kaneva and Nicolay Mihailov
Energies 2025, 18(15), 4055; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18154055 (registering DOI) - 31 Jul 2025
Abstract
Forecasting the energy consumption of different consumers became an important procedure with the creation of the European Electricity Market. This study presents a methodology for 24-hour ahead prediction of the energy consumption, which is suitable for application in animal husbandry facilities, such as [...] Read more.
Forecasting the energy consumption of different consumers became an important procedure with the creation of the European Electricity Market. This study presents a methodology for 24-hour ahead prediction of the energy consumption, which is suitable for application in animal husbandry facilities, such as pig farms. To achieve this, 24 individual models are trained using artificial neural networks that forecast the energy production 1 to 24 h ahead. The selected features include power consumption over the last 72 h, time-based data, average, minimum, and maximum daily temperatures, relative humidities, and wind speeds. The models’ Normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) vary between 16.59% and 19.00%, 22.19% and 24.73%, and 9.49% and 11.49%, respectively. Furthermore, the case studies showed that in most situations, the forecasting error does not exceed 10% with several cases up to 25%. The proposed methodology can be useful for energy managers of animal farm facilities, and help them provide a better prognosis of their energy consumption for the Energy Market. The proposed methodology could be improved by selecting additional features, such as the variation of the controlled meteorological parameters over the last couple of days and the schedule of technological processes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Application of AI in Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction)
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19 pages, 3436 KiB  
Article
An Improved Wind Power Forecasting Model Considering Peak Fluctuations
by Shengjie Yang, Jie Tang, Lun Ye, Jiangang Liu and Wenjun Zhao
Electronics 2025, 14(15), 3050; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14153050 - 30 Jul 2025
Abstract
Wind power output sequences exhibit strong randomness and intermittency characteristics; traditional single forecasting models struggle to capture the internal features of sequences and are highly susceptible to interference from high-frequency noise and predictive accuracy is still notably poor at the peaks where the [...] Read more.
Wind power output sequences exhibit strong randomness and intermittency characteristics; traditional single forecasting models struggle to capture the internal features of sequences and are highly susceptible to interference from high-frequency noise and predictive accuracy is still notably poor at the peaks where the power curve undergoes abrupt changes. To address the poor fitting at peaks, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the improved Informer model is proposed. First, the temporal convolutional network (TCN) is introduced to enhance the model’s ability to capture regional segment features along the temporal dimension, enhancing the model’s receptive field to address wind power fluctuation under varying environmental conditions. Next, a discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for adaptive modeling of frequency dependencies between channels, converting the time series data into frequency domain representations to extract its frequency features. These frequency domain features are then weighted using a channel attention mechanism to improve the model’s ability to capture peak features and resist noise interference. Finally, the Informer generative decoder is used to output the power prediction results, this enables the model to simultaneously leverage neighboring temporal segment features and long-range inter-temporal dependencies for future wind-power prediction, thereby substantially improving the fitting accuracy at power-curve peaks. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model; compared with other models, the proposed approach reduces MAE by 9.14–42.31% and RMSE by 12.57–47.59%. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Digital Intelligence Technology and Applications)
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34 pages, 4141 KiB  
Article
Factors Impacting Projected Annual Energy Production from Offshore Wind Farms on the US East and West Coasts
by Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kelsey B. Thompson and Sara C. Pryor
Energies 2025, 18(15), 4037; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18154037 - 29 Jul 2025
Viewed by 111
Abstract
Simulations are conducted using a microscale model framework to quantify differences in projected Annual Energy Production (AEP), Capacity Factor (CF) and wake losses for large offshore wind farms that arise due to different input datasets, installed capacity density (ICD) and/or wake parameterizations. Differences [...] Read more.
Simulations are conducted using a microscale model framework to quantify differences in projected Annual Energy Production (AEP), Capacity Factor (CF) and wake losses for large offshore wind farms that arise due to different input datasets, installed capacity density (ICD) and/or wake parameterizations. Differences in CF (and AEP) and wake losses that arise due to the selection of the wake parameterization have the same magnitude as varying the ICD within the likely range of 2–9 MW km−2. CF simulated with most wake parameterizations have a near-linear relationship with ICD in this range, and the slope of the dependency on ICD is similar to that in mesoscale simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Microscale simulations show that remotely generated wakes can double AEP losses in individual lease areas (LA) within a large LA cluster. Finally, simulations with the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model are shown to differ in terms of wake-induced AEP reduction from those with the WRF model by up to 5%, but this difference is smaller than differences in CF caused by the wind farm parameterization used in the mesoscale modeling. Enhanced evaluation of mesoscale and microscale wake parameterizations against observations of climatological representative AEP and time-varying power production from wind farm Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data remains critical to improving the accuracy of predictive AEP modeling for large offshore wind farms. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section A3: Wind, Wave and Tidal Energy)
27 pages, 3529 KiB  
Article
Coordinated Sliding Mode and Model Predictive Control for Enhanced Fault Ride-Through in DFIG Wind Turbines
by Ahmed Muthanna Nori, Ali Kadhim Abdulabbas and Tawfiq M. Aljohani
Energies 2025, 18(15), 4017; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18154017 - 28 Jul 2025
Viewed by 151
Abstract
This work proposes an effective control technique for enhancing the stability of Doubly Fed Induction Generator-Based Wind Turbines (DFIG-WTs) connected to the grid during voltage sag and swell events, ensuring the reliable and efficient operation of wind energy systems integrated with the grid. [...] Read more.
This work proposes an effective control technique for enhancing the stability of Doubly Fed Induction Generator-Based Wind Turbines (DFIG-WTs) connected to the grid during voltage sag and swell events, ensuring the reliable and efficient operation of wind energy systems integrated with the grid. The proposed approach integrates a Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR) in series with a Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) output terminal to enhance the Fault Ride-Through (FRT) capability during grid disturbances. To develop a flexible control strategy for both unbalanced and balanced fault conditions, a combination of feedforward and feedback control based on a sliding mode control (SMC) for DVR converters is used. This hybrid strategy allows for precise voltage regulation, enabling the series compensator to inject the required voltage into the grid, thereby ensuring constant generator terminal voltages even during faults. The SMC enhances the system’s robustness by providing fast, reliable regulation of the injected voltage, effectively mitigating the impact of grid disturbances. To further enhance system performance, Model Predictive Control (MPC) is implemented for the Rotor-Side Converter (RSC) within the back-to-back converter (BTBC) configuration. The main advantages of the predictive control method include eliminating the need for linear controllers, coordinate transformations, or modulators for the converter. Additionally, it ensures the stable operation of the generator even under severe operating conditions, enhancing system robustness and dynamic response. To validate the proposed control strategy, a comprehensive simulation is conducted using a 2 MW DFIG-WT connected to a 120 kV grid. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed control approach successfully limits overcurrent in the RSC, maintains electromagnetic torque and DC-link voltage within their rated values, and dynamically regulates reactive power to mitigate voltage sags and swells. This allows the WTG to continue operating at its nominal capacity, fully complying with the strict requirements of modern grid codes and ensuring reliable grid integration. Full article
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18 pages, 1941 KiB  
Article
Design of Virtual Sensors for a Pyramidal Weathervaning Floating Wind Turbine
by Hector del Pozo Gonzalez, Magnus Daniel Kallinger, Tolga Yalcin, José Ignacio Rapha and Jose Luis Domínguez-García
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2025, 13(8), 1411; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13081411 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 153
Abstract
This study explores virtual sensing techniques for the Eolink floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT), which features a pyramidal platform and a single-point mooring system that enables weathervaning to maximize power production and reduce structural loads. To address the challenges and costs associated with [...] Read more.
This study explores virtual sensing techniques for the Eolink floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT), which features a pyramidal platform and a single-point mooring system that enables weathervaning to maximize power production and reduce structural loads. To address the challenges and costs associated with monitoring submerged components, virtual sensors are investigated as an alternative to physical instrumentation. The main objective is to design a virtual sensor of mooring hawser loads using a reduced set of input features from GPS, anemometer, and inertial measurement unit (IMU) data. A virtual sensor is also proposed to estimate the bending moment at the joint of the pyramid masts. The FOWT is modeled in OrcaFlex, and a range of load cases is simulated for training and testing. Under defined sensor sampling conditions, both supervised and physics-informed machine learning algorithms are evaluated. The models are tested under aligned and misaligned environmental conditions, as well as across operating regimes below- and above-rated conditions. Results show that mooring tensions can be estimated with high accuracy, while bending moment predictions also perform well, though with lower precision. These findings support the use of virtual sensing to reduce instrumentation requirements in critical areas of the floating wind platform. Full article
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32 pages, 9845 KiB  
Article
Real-Time Analysis of Millidecade Spectra for Ocean Sound Identification and Wind Speed Quantification
by Mojgan Mirzaei Hotkani, Bruce Martin, Jean Francois Bousquet and Julien Delarue
Acoustics 2025, 7(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/acoustics7030044 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 287
Abstract
This study introduces an algorithm for quantifying oceanic wind speed and identifying sound sources in the local underwater soundscape. Utilizing low-complexity metrics like one-minute spectral kurtosis and power spectral density levels, the algorithm categorizes different soundscapes and estimates wind speed. It detects rain, [...] Read more.
This study introduces an algorithm for quantifying oceanic wind speed and identifying sound sources in the local underwater soundscape. Utilizing low-complexity metrics like one-minute spectral kurtosis and power spectral density levels, the algorithm categorizes different soundscapes and estimates wind speed. It detects rain, vessels, fin and blue whales, as well as clicks and whistles from dolphins. Positioned as a foundational tool for implementing the Ocean Sound Essential Ocean Variable (EOV), it contributes to understanding long-term trends in climate change for sustainable ocean health and predicting threats through forecasts. The proposed soundscape classification algorithm, validated using extensive acoustic recordings (≥32 kHz) collected at various depths and latitudes, demonstrates high performance, achieving an average precision of 89% and an average recall of 86.59% through optimized parameter tuning via a genetic algorithm. Here, wind speed is determined using a cubic function with power spectral density (PSD) at 6 kHz and the MASLUW method, exhibiting strong agreement with satellite data below 15 m/s. Designed for compatibility with low-power electronics, the algorithm can be applied to both archival datasets and real-time data streams. It provides a straightforward metric for ocean monitoring and sound source identification. Full article
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24 pages, 3714 KiB  
Article
DTCMMA: Efficient Wind-Power Forecasting Based on Dimensional Transformation Combined with Multidimensional and Multiscale Convolutional Attention Mechanism
by Wenhan Song, Enguang Zuo, Junyu Zhu, Chen Chen, Cheng Chen, Ziwei Yan and Xiaoyi Lv
Sensors 2025, 25(15), 4530; https://doi.org/10.3390/s25154530 - 22 Jul 2025
Viewed by 244
Abstract
With the growing global demand for clean energy, the accuracy of wind-power forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of power systems. However, wind-power generation is significantly influenced by meteorological conditions and is characterized by high uncertainty and multiscale fluctuations. [...] Read more.
With the growing global demand for clean energy, the accuracy of wind-power forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of power systems. However, wind-power generation is significantly influenced by meteorological conditions and is characterized by high uncertainty and multiscale fluctuations. Traditional recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, although capable of handling sequential data, struggle with modeling long-term temporal dependencies due to the vanishing gradient problem; thus, they are now rarely used. Recently, Transformer models have made notable progress in sequence modeling compared to RNNs and LSTM models. Nevertheless, when dealing with long wind-power sequences, their quadratic computational complexity (O(L2)) leads to low efficiency, and their global attention mechanism often fails to capture local periodic features accurately, tending to overemphasize redundant information while overlooking key temporal patterns. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a wind-power forecasting method based on dimension-transformed collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (DTCMMA). This method first employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to automatically identify the main periodic components in wind-power data, reconstructing the one-dimensional time series as a two-dimensional spatiotemporal representation, thereby explicitly encoding periodic features. Based on this, a collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (CMMA) mechanism is designed, which hierarchically integrates channel, spatial, and pixel attention to adaptively capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Considering the geometric characteristics of the reconstructed data, asymmetric convolution kernels are adopted to enhance feature extraction efficiency. Experiments on multiple wind-farm datasets and energy-related datasets demonstrate that DTCMMA outperforms mainstream methods such as Transformer, iTransformer, and TimeMixer in long-sequence forecasting tasks, achieving improvements in MSE performance by 34.22%, 2.57%, and 0.51%, respectively. The model’s training speed also surpasses that of the fastest baseline by 300%, significantly improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. This provides an efficient and accurate solution for wind-power forecasting and contributes to the further development and application of wind energy in the global energy mix. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Intelligent Sensors)
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18 pages, 7477 KiB  
Article
A Three-Layer Sequential Model Predictive Current Control for NNPC Four-Level Inverters with Low Common-Mode Voltage
by Liyu Dai, Wujie Chao, Chaoping Deng, Junwei Huang, Yihan Wang, Minxin Lin and Tao Jin
Electronics 2025, 14(14), 2910; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14142910 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 265
Abstract
The four-level nested neutral point clamped (4L-NNPC) inverter has recently become a promising solution for renewable energy generation, e.g., wind and photovoltaic power. The NNPC inverter can stabilize the flying capacitor (FC) voltages of each bridge through redundant switch states (RSSs). This paper [...] Read more.
The four-level nested neutral point clamped (4L-NNPC) inverter has recently become a promising solution for renewable energy generation, e.g., wind and photovoltaic power. The NNPC inverter can stabilize the flying capacitor (FC) voltages of each bridge through redundant switch states (RSSs). This paper presents an improved three-layer sequential model predictive control (3LS-MPC) method for 4L-NNPCs. This method eliminates weighting factors and removes the switch states that generate high common-mode voltage (CMV). Before selecting the optimal vector, we disable certain switch states which affect the FC voltages, continuing to deviate from the desired value. Then, adopting a two-stage optimal vector selection method, we select the optimal sector based on six specific vectors and choose the optimal vector from the seven vectors in the optimal sector. The feasibility of this method was verified in Matlab/Simulink and the prototype. The experimental results show that compared with classical FCS-MPC, the proposed 3LS-MPC method reduces the common-mode voltage and has better harmonic quality and more stable FCs voltages. Full article
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16 pages, 1216 KiB  
Article
Power Assessment and Performance Comparison of Wind Turbines Driven by Multivariate Environmental Factors
by Bubin Wang, Bin Zhou, Denghao Zhu, Mingheng Zou, Zhao Rao, Haoxuan Luo and Weihao Ji
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2025, 13(7), 1377; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071377 - 20 Jul 2025
Viewed by 259
Abstract
The increasing deployment of turbines installed offshore is critical for sustainable energy development, yet accurate performance assessment remains challenging due to complex environmental influences, diverse turbine control strategies, and issues with data quality. Traditional performance metrics and power curve models often fail to [...] Read more.
The increasing deployment of turbines installed offshore is critical for sustainable energy development, yet accurate performance assessment remains challenging due to complex environmental influences, diverse turbine control strategies, and issues with data quality. Traditional performance metrics and power curve models often fail to provide reliable cross-turbine comparisons because they neglect multivariate environmental factors and turbine-specific biases. To address these limitations, this study develops a novel multivariate environmental factor-driven power assessment framework employing segmented long short-term memory (LSTM) models. A hybrid data cleaning method, combining bidirectional quartile analysis with the power curtailment detection, is proposed to effectively identify outliers, including subtle anomalies within typical data ranges. Samples are segmented based on rated wind speed to reflect differences in control strategies, and turbine-specific operational parameters are excluded to ensure unbiased comparisons among turbines. The proposed method achieves substantial improvements in predictive accuracy, with decreases of 9.39% in mean absolute error (MAE) and 11.75% in root mean square error (RMSE), compared to conventional binning approaches. When applied to three 5.5 MW offshore wind turbines, the proposed method reveals significant differences among the units. Turbine A demonstrates the highest performance, while turbines B and C exhibit reductions of 14.35% and 8.29%, respectively. Operational state analysis shows that turbine B experiences substantially longer maintenance durations, indicating severe faults that adversely affect its operational reliability and power output. These findings provide valuable insights for maintenance prioritization and performance benchmarking among wind turbines. Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Wind, Wave and Tidal Energy Technologies in China)
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41 pages, 9748 KiB  
Article
Wind Turbine Fault Detection Through Autoencoder-Based Neural Network and FMSA
by Welker Facchini Nogueira, Arthur Henrique de Andrade Melani and Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza
Sensors 2025, 25(14), 4499; https://doi.org/10.3390/s25144499 - 19 Jul 2025
Viewed by 400
Abstract
Amid the global shift toward clean energy, wind power has emerged as a critical pillar of the modern energy matrix. To improve the reliability and maintainability of wind farms, this work proposes a novel hybrid fault detection approach that combines expert-driven diagnostic knowledge [...] Read more.
Amid the global shift toward clean energy, wind power has emerged as a critical pillar of the modern energy matrix. To improve the reliability and maintainability of wind farms, this work proposes a novel hybrid fault detection approach that combines expert-driven diagnostic knowledge with data-driven modeling. The framework integrates autoencoder-based neural networks with Failure Mode and Symptoms Analysis, leveraging the strengths of both methodologies to enhance anomaly detection, feature selection, and fault localization. The methodology comprises five main stages: (i) the identification of failure modes and their observable symptoms using FMSA, (ii) the acquisition and preprocessing of SCADA monitoring data, (iii) the development of dedicated autoencoder models trained exclusively on healthy operational data, (iv) the implementation of an anomaly detection strategy based on the reconstruction error and a persistence-based rule to reduce false positives, and (v) evaluation using performance metrics. The approach adopts a fault-specific modeling strategy, in which each turbine and failure mode is associated with a customized autoencoder. The methodology was first validated using OpenFAST 3.5 simulated data with induced faults comprising normal conditions and a 1% mass imbalance fault on a blade, enabling the verification of its effectiveness under controlled conditions. Subsequently, the methodology was applied to a real-world SCADA data case study from wind turbines operated by EDP, employing historical operational data from turbines, including thermal measurements and operational variables such as wind speed and generated power. The proposed system achieved 99% classification accuracy on simulated data detect anomalies up to 60 days before reported failures in real operational conditions, successfully identifying degradations in components such as the transformer, gearbox, generator, and hydraulic group. The integration of FMSA improves feature selection and fault localization, enhancing both the interpretability and precision of the detection system. This hybrid approach demonstrates the potential to support predictive maintenance in complex industrial environments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Fault Diagnosis & Sensors)
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17 pages, 4652 KiB  
Article
Challenge and Bias Correction for Surface Wind Speed Prediction: A Case Study in Shanxi Province, China
by Zengyuan Guo, Zhuozhuo Lyu and Yunyun Liu
Climate 2025, 13(7), 150; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13070150 - 17 Jul 2025
Viewed by 301
Abstract
Accurate prediction of wind speed is critical for wind power generation and bias correction serves as an effective tool to enhance the precision of climate model forecasts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of three bias correction methods—Quantile Regression at the 50th percentile (QR50), [...] Read more.
Accurate prediction of wind speed is critical for wind power generation and bias correction serves as an effective tool to enhance the precision of climate model forecasts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of three bias correction methods—Quantile Regression at the 50th percentile (QR50), Linear Regression (LR), and Optimal Threat Score (OTS)—for improving wind speed predictions at a height of 70 m from the NCEP CFSv2 model in Shanxi Province, China. Using observational data from nine wind towers (2021–2024) and corresponding model hindcasts, we analyze systematic biases across lead times of 1–45 days. Results reveal persistent model errors: overestimation of low wind speeds (<6 m/s) and underestimation of high wind speeds (>6 m/s), with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) exceeding 1.5 m/s across all lead times. Among the correction methods, QR50 demonstrates the most robust performance, reducing the mean RMSE by 11% in October 2023 and 10% in February 2024. Correction efficacy improves significantly at longer lead times (>10 days) and under high RMSE conditions. These findings underscore the value of regression-based approaches in complex terrain while emphasizing the need for dynamic adjustments during extreme wind events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Wind‑Speed Variability from Tropopause to Surface)
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21 pages, 3551 KiB  
Article
Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Wind from Reanalysis Data and Application to Ukraine
by Brandon N. Benton, Grant Buster, Pavlo Pinchuk, Andrew Glaws, Ryan N. King, Galen Maclaurin and Ilya Chernyakhovskiy
Energies 2025, 18(14), 3769; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18143769 - 16 Jul 2025
Viewed by 236
Abstract
With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather [...] Read more.
With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind). Full article
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23 pages, 963 KiB  
Article
A Methodology for Turbine-Level Possible Power Prediction and Uncertainty Estimations Using Farm-Wide Autoregressive Information on High-Frequency Data
by Francisco Javier Jara Ávila, Timothy Verstraeten, Pieter Jan Daems, Ann Nowé and Jan Helsen
Energies 2025, 18(14), 3764; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18143764 - 16 Jul 2025
Viewed by 245
Abstract
Wind farm performance monitoring has traditionally relied on deterministic models, such as power curves or machine learning approaches, which often fail to account for farm-wide behavior and the uncertainty quantification necessary for the reliable detection of underperformance. To overcome these limitations, we propose [...] Read more.
Wind farm performance monitoring has traditionally relied on deterministic models, such as power curves or machine learning approaches, which often fail to account for farm-wide behavior and the uncertainty quantification necessary for the reliable detection of underperformance. To overcome these limitations, we propose a probabilistic methodology for turbine-level active power prediction and uncertainty estimation using high-frequency SCADA data and farm-wide autoregressive information. The method leverages a Stochastic Variational Gaussian Process with a Linear Model of Coregionalization, incorporating physical models like manufacturer power curves as mean functions and enabling flexible modeling of active power and its associated variance. The approach was validated on a wind farm in the Belgian North Sea comprising over 40 turbines, using only 15 days of data for training. The results demonstrate that the proposed method improves predictive accuracy over the manufacturer’s power curve, achieving a reduction in error measurements of around 1%. Improvements of around 5% were seen in dominant wind directions (200°–300°) using 2 and 3 Latent GPs, with similar improvements observed on the test set. The model also successfully reconstructs wake effects, with Energy Ratio estimates closely matching SCADA-derived values, and provides meaningful uncertainty estimates and posterior turbine correlations. These results demonstrate that the methodology enables interpretable, data-efficient, and uncertainty-aware turbine-level power predictions, suitable for advanced wind farm monitoring and control applications, enabling a more sensitive underperformance detection. Full article
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