Search Results (4,166)

Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of wind energy into power systems, as it directly influences generation scheduling, grid stability, and energy market operations. Forecast errors can lead to significant economic losses, including increased balancing costs, inefficient dispatch of backup generation, and penalties in electricity markets. However, wind behaviour is highly complex due to the influence of synoptic weather systems, terrain variability, and turbulence, which makes accurate prediction particularly challenging. This paper proposes a hybrid modelling framework that combines a linear regression mean model with Gaussian process (GP) residual modelling to improve forecast accuracy. Monitoring stations were grouped based on geographic coordinates and elevation, with cluster validation using the Hopkins statistic and silhouette analysis. The results show that for high-elevation inland stations (cluster 2), GP residual modelling improves forecast accuracy by up to 16.3%. In contrast, for low-elevation coastal stations (cluster 1), the GP approach does not yield improvements, indicating that its effectiveness depends strongly on the underlying wind regime. Full article

Hurricane Florence (2018) proved to be a damaging tropical cyclone that formed off the coast of the Cabo Verde Islands. On 12 UTC 14 September 2018, Florence made landfall as a weakened category 1 Hurricane in Wrightsville Beach, NC. In the midst of landfall, Florence’s ground speed stalled considerably to near zero. Because of this stall, Florence continued to accumulate feet of rain along the coastline, and the inundation of seawater became extreme. Due to the impacts of Florence, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate the tropical cyclone and provide insight into the thermodynamics and dynamics that played a significant role at the time of landfall. After the control case, several sensitivity experiments were conducted. The historical sensitivity experiments utilize the thermodynamic and moisture fields of ERA5 reanalysis data from 1968 and 1998, respectively, to modify the thermodynamic and moisture fields in the initial conditions of the WRF–ARW control case. In addition, to study the potential future climate impacts of Florence, the NCAR CESM Global Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Output to Support WRF/MPAS Research dataset was utilized. The same approach was taken as the historical versions of Florence for sensitivity experiments for future climate, i.e., thermodynamic and moisture fields for both 2038 and 2068 under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Results suggest a corresponding intensity shift with minor track deflections. Based on these modifications, synoptic and mesoscale dynamics will be studied to provide insight into how Florence-like hurricanes may change based on certain climate scenarios. Full article

Accurately forecasting the weighted mean temperature (Tm) is critical for converting the zenith wet delay (ZWD) into global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based precipitable water vapor (PWV) for real-time sensing and forecasting applications. The forecast Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1-FC) is a global forecast product developed by TU Wien based on numerical weather prediction models and can provide grid-wise Tm one day ahead. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of VMF1-FC-forecasted Tm using observations from 319 global radiosonde (RS) sites during 2019–2021. The results indicate that VMF1-FC-forecasted Tm shows a relatively low RMSE but a relatively large bias (0.75 K) relative to the widely used Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3) model. To improve the accuracy of VMF1-FC-forecasted Tm, three refined models, XTm, LTm, and CTm, are developed using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), respectively, based on observations from 319 RS sites. The models use longitude, latitude, ellipsoidal height, floating day of year (fdoy), and VMF1-FC Tm as input features, and RS Tm as the target variable. Validation using RS data from 2022 that are not involved in model development shows that the refined models significantly reduce bias, with biases of 0 K, 0 K, and −0.03 K for XTm, LTm, and CTm, respectively. Benefiting from the effective reduction in bias, the root mean square error (RMSE) is correspondingly reduced. The RMSEs of XTm, LTm, and CTm are 1.45 K, 1.45 K, and 1.46 K, respectively, achieving improvements of 18.50%/64.93%, 18.44%/64.91%, and 18.11%/64.76% compared with the VMF1-FC and GPT3 models. In addition, three refined models demonstrate higher accuracy and improve stability across different latitude bands, ellipsoidal height ranges, and temporal scales. The refined models provide more accurate global-scale Tm and offer strong potential for GNSS meteorological applications, particularly real-time GNSS-based PWV sensing and weather forecasting. Full article

To improve solar irradiance simulation accuracy for precise photovoltaic power forecasting, we developed a hybrid framework combining WRF-Solar numerical simulation and random forest (RF) machine learning for a PV plant in Guangdong, China. Weather conditions were objectively classified into clear, intermittent cloudy, and overcast using the Daily Variability Index (DVI) and Daily Clear-sky Index (DCI). We calibrated the WRF-Solar model’s microphysics and radiative transfer schemes via sensitivity tests to optimize overcast-sky performance, then applied RF correction to the simulated irradiance. Results show that RF correction significantly reduces simulation errors for intermittent and overcast conditions, while the original WRF-Solar outperforms the corrected results under clear skies due to RF overfitting. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two of the most impactful weather systems in the tropics. For example, it is not uncommon for a strong TC to kill hundreds of people and cause tens of billions of dollars in damage. The MJO modulates not only TCs but also monsoons around the world, which contribute essential rainfall for agriculture that supports billions of people, but which also can cause deadly floods. Because of the close coupling between the MJO and TCs, as well as the several week predictability of the MJO, models that can accurately simulate both kinds of weather systems have the potential to be useful for both mid-range weather forecasting and studies of impacts of climate change. This paper describes the further development of one such model, the Lagrangian Atmospheric Model (LAM), which simulates atmospheric motions by predicting motions of individual air parcels, and which has been shown to accurately simulate the MJO in previous studies. In this study, a new parameterization of cloud albedo is included in the LAM, and the model is tuned to improve simulations of TC distributions while still maintaining a robust and realistic MJO. Objective metrics of the model basic state, MJO quality, and TC distributions are used to optimize parameter selections for the cloud albedo parameterization and convective mixing. After tuning the LAM using dozens of 3-year simulations, we conduct two longer simulations forced with observed sea surface temperatures to verify that the new version of LAM has a substantially improved representation of TCs while still maintaining a realistic MJO. Full article

Accurate short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for power system scheduling and market operations. Existing studies have shown the value of numerical weather prediction (NWP), graph-based spatial modeling, and temporal sequence learning, but the boundary of their contributions remains fragmented across many practical forecasting frameworks. In particular, adjacent multi-point NWP information is often not explicitly organized according to its spatial relationships, while historical similar-day power is rarely integrated with graph-structured meteorological features in a unified model. To address this gap, this study develops a short-term PV power forecasting framework that combines multi-point NWP graph construction with similar-day-guided Transformer fusion. First, predicted irradiance from the target site and neighboring NWP points is organized as a graph, and a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) is used to extract local spatial meteorological features. Second, similar days are identified through a two-stage selection strategy based on Euclidean distance and Pearson correlation, and the corresponding historical power sequences are aggregated as temporal guidance. Finally, the graph-extracted NWP features, similar-day power, and predicted humidity are fused by a Transformer-based temporal modeling module to generate day-ahead PV power forecasts. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms TCN-Transformer, Transformer, GCN, LSTM, and BP on the studied dataset, and maintains favorable performance on additional PV stations. These results indicate that the joint integration of graph-structured multi-point NWP information and historical similar-day power is effective for short-term PV power forecasting. Full article

Traffic flow prediction is important for traffic management and safety control in mountainous areas. In these environments, traffic flow is affected by complex terrain, changing weather, and mixed vehicle types, so the resulting time series often show strong fluctuation and poor stability. Many existing prediction models were developed for urban roads or flat highways, and their performance is therefore limited in mountainous scenarios. To address this problem, this paper proposes a hybrid model called DK-VCA Net. The model combines adaptive signal decomposition with a terrain-aware deep learning structure to separate useful traffic variation from complex noise. It also integrates traffic flow, speed, slope, and weather information to better describe mountain traffic conditions. The proposed method is evaluated using real traffic data collected at 5 min intervals from detection stations on the Guibi Expressway in Guizhou Province, China, during September 2020. Experimental results show that DK-VCA Net achieves better prediction accuracy than several representative baseline models, including 1D-CNN, LSTM, Transformer, STWave, and Mamba. Across the 15 min, 30 min, and 60 min forecasting tasks, the proposed model reduces the average RMSE by 14.8% compared with the conventional 1D-CNN model and by 8.9% compared with the baseline Transformer model. The ablation study further proves the effectiveness of the decomposition strategy, terrain-related features, and the attention mechanism. The results show that the proposed method is effective for traffic flow prediction in the studied mountainous highway scenario. Full article

For offshore renewable energy planning and intelligent power management, access to long-term, high-resolution, and physically consistent meteorological and power generation records is essential. Such data supports a wide range of tasks, including resource assessment, hybrid system capacity sizing, grid operation planning, and data-driven forecasting model development. This article presents the construction of a 10-year continuous hourly dataset for 16 deep-sea grid sites in the Beibu Gulf, China, spanning from January 2016 to December 2025. The raw meteorological variables, including 10 m wind speed, wind direction, solar irradiance, and 2 m air temperature, were retrieved from the NASA POWER satellite database and subsequently cleaned using a 24 h periodic substitution algorithm designed to preserve the physical integrity of daily weather cycles. The dataset is organized into two sub-datasets, the Historical Weather Dataset and the Normalized Power Yield Dataset, with the latter providing normalized wind and solar power outputs on a 1.0 per-unit (p.u.) basis derived from a wind turbine power curve model and a PV thermodynamic model. All 32 CSV files are freely accessible online with UTF-8 encoding. The utility of the dataset is illustrated through two representative application cases including offshore site selection with hybrid capacity sizing and physics-informed deep learning forecasting, demonstrating its suitability for both engineering analysis and machine learning model development. Full article

The dynamic development of the food delivery sector and the resulting increase in last-mile distribution operations generate the need to simultaneously improve the efficiency of delivery processes and reduce the environmental impacts of urban logistics. In this context, shortening delivery time contributes not only to higher service quality and competitiveness but also to lower energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, which are key elements of sustainable urban mobility and logistics. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop a delivery time optimization algorithm for the food delivery sector using selected machine learning methods, supporting the implementation of sustainable development principles in the operations of transport enterprises. This study presents an integrated approach to modelling delivery time in food distribution as a tool for building the competitive advantage of logistics enterprises under the conditions of implementing sustainable development principles. The study combines a literature review on sustainable last-mile logistics and data-driven optimization with an empirical analysis using traditional methods such as multiple regression and selected machine learning methods: decision trees, the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) method, and the XGBoost algorithm. The operational data include parameters related to delivery execution, such as supplier characteristics, vehicle type, order execution date, weather conditions and traffic situation. The developed mathematical models enable high-accuracy prediction of delivery time and the identification of the most important factors affecting both timeliness and potential energy consumption in the delivery process. The comparative assessment of the applied methods makes it possible to indicate the algorithms that provide the best forecast quality and practical usefulness in logistics decision-making. The proposed delivery time optimization algorithm supports data-driven decision-making that leads to shorter delivery times and lower energy intensity and thus to a reduction in the carbon footprint of last-mile operations, simultaneously strengthening the competitiveness and environmental responsibility of logistics enterprises. The results contribute to the development of sustainable urban logistics by linking predictive modelling with the economic, environmental and operational dimensions of efficiency in last-mile transport processes. Overall, this study offers an original, high-quality contribution to sustainable last-mile food delivery by integrating large-scale operational data with advanced machine learning models to deliver practically relevant, highly accurate delivery time predictions for logistics enterprises. Full article

With the increasing occurrence of extreme high-temperature weather events, the traditional bundled operation of wind power (WP), photovoltaic power (PV), and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is facing dual challenges, namely intensified renewable energy fluctuations and insufficient flexible regulation capability of PSH. Therefore, this paper proposes an optimal scheduling strategy for bundled operation based on capacity interval matching of PSH with WP and PV under extreme high-temperature weather. First, typical scenarios are generated based on a Time-series Generative Adversarial Network (TimeGAN), and an interval matching transaction model is established based on the forecast intervals of WP and PV capacity and the corrected intervals of PSH capacity. Second, considering PSH as an independent market entity, a bi-level optimization model is constructed, in which the upper-level objective is to maximize the revenue of PSH, while the lower-level objective is to minimize the total cost of the joint clearing of the energy and ancillary service markets. Finally, simulation case studies verify that under extreme high-temperature weather, the proposed optimal scheduling method increases the bundled operation capacity by 17.9% and improves the revenue of PSH in the reserve ancillary service market by 14.8%, thereby effectively enhancing the economic performance of PSH while ensuring the safe and stable operation of the system. Full article

Precipitation forecasting is essential for disaster prevention, water resource management, and socio-economic resilience. The field has evolved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) and optical-flow-based methods toward data-driven deep learning approaches that can exploit larger observational datasets and model complex nonlinear relationships. Against this background, this study evaluates multi-station temporal forecasting models within a single-year, station-based proof-of-concept benchmark under unified data conditions. We adapt the Transformer and Informer architectures to this meteorological setting, rigorously preprocess the AWS dataset to avoid data leakage, and select predictive variables using complementary linear and nonlinear relevance criteria. Model performance is assessed using continuous and categorical precipitation metrics, including the Critical Success Index (CSI). The results show that the Informer outperforms the recurrent neural network (RNN) baselines and achieves the lowest mean MAE and RMSE together with the highest mean CSI among the evaluated models while using substantially fewer parameters than the standard Transformer. However, its sample-wise absolute error distribution remains statistically comparable to that of the standard Transformer. Overall, this study establishes a single-year, station-based proof-of-concept benchmark for comparing architectures in very-short-term (1–5 h ahead) precipitation forecasting. Full article

The wave energy resource along the Azores coast is evaluated for the present (1990–2019) and future (2030–2059) periods using the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH III, forced by winds and sea-ice cover from the RCP8.5 EC-Earth integration dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results indicate that the region is characterized by a high-energy wave climate, with mean wave power values typically ranging between 30 and 40 kW/m. A statistical comparison between the two periods shows a moderate reduction in wave energy potential under future conditions, with strong spatial variability. The performance of four wave energy converters (AquaBuoy, Wavestar, Oceantec, and Atargis) is analyzed, revealing significant differences in energy production and capacity factor depending on device–site matching. A techno-economic evaluation is performed by estimating the LCOE, accounting for capital expenditure, operational costs, device lifetime, and annual energy production (AEP). The results demonstrate that economic performance is primarily driven by energy production rather than capital cost alone, and that wave energy exploitation in the Azores remains viable under near-future climate conditions. Full article

To mitigate environmental impact, specifically the CO₂ emissions associated with conventional thermal and nuclear facilities, renewable energy sources are increasingly being adopted as primary alternatives. However, integrating these renewable sources into the utility grid poses a significant challenge, primarily due to the stochastic and nonlinear nature of weather. Consequently, it is imperative that power systems operate under an intelligent control model to ensure energy output meets strict power quality standards. In this context, accurate forecasting is a cornerstone of smart power management, particularly in off-grid architectures, where predicting Power Quality Parameters (PQPs) is fundamental for system optimization and error correction. This study conducts a comprehensive comparative evaluation of nine different predictive architectures for estimating PQPs. The algorithms analyzed include $LSTM$, $GRU$, $DNN$, $CNN1D\text{-}LSTM$, $BiLSTM$, attention mechanisms, $DT$, $SVM$, and $XGBoost$. The central objective is to develop a reliable basis for the automated regulation and enhancement of electrical quality in isolated systems. The specific parameters investigated are power voltage (U), Voltage Total Harmonic Distortion ($TH{D}_u$), Current Total Harmonic Distortion ($TH{D}_i$), and short-term flicker severity ($P_{st}$). Data for this investigation were acquired from an experimental off-grid setup at VSB-Technical University of Ostrava (VSB-TUO), Czech Republic. To assess model performance, we utilized root mean square error ($RMSE$) as the primary accuracy metric, while simultaneously evaluating computational efficiency in terms of processing speed and memory consumption during testing. Full article

Large infrastructure projects frequently experience schedule slippage and cost escalation; however, time–cost planning still relies on expert-assigned activity parameters that fail to reflect the variability induced by construction modes, resource supply, and on-site conditions. This study focuses on activity-level multi-mode time–cost trade-off planning and its dynamic correction during project execution. The proposed methodology is intended for project-level short-term operational scheduling and rolling re-scheduling within a finite project execution horizon, rather than long-term strategic or portfolio-level scheduling. A predict–optimize–update framework is proposed, where light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is employed to predict the duration and direct cost of activity–mode pairs using unified features extracted from BIM/IFC records, schedule-resource ledgers, and cost-settlement data, covering engineering quantities, mode and resource decisions, and contextual factors. These predicted parameters are then fed into a time-indexed bi-objective mixed-integer linear program (MILP), which minimizes both project makespan and total cost (including indirect cost) to generate an interpretable Pareto frontier via a weighted-sum approach. Meanwhile, real-time monitoring updates refresh the predictors and re-solve the remaining project network to ensure dynamic adaptability. Validated on a desensitized proprietary enterprise multi-source dataset comprising 25 completed infrastructure projects and 5258 activity–mode samples, the proposed method achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.7 days and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.89 for duration prediction, as well as an MAE of 7.4 × 10⁴ CNY and an R² of 0.91 for direct-cost prediction. The generated Pareto set exhibits a diminishing return trend: as the project duration is relaxed from 101 to 146 days, the total cost decreases from 45.10 to 40.27 million CNY. A weather-triggered update case demonstrates that the completion forecast is revised from 133 to 128 days, with the total cost reduced from 53.05 to 52.75 million CNY. This framework enables explainable schedule–cost co-control, thereby effectively aiding decision-making for the planning and control of large infrastructure projects. Full article

Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for the stability of modern power systems. However, current probabilistic forecasting frameworks often encounter a fundamental conflict between the computational efficiency required for high-dimensional meteorological pattern matching and the physical consistency of the resulting probability distributions. Existing methods frequently fail to maintain the logical monotonicity of quantiles or overlook the fine-grained temporal correlations in massive historical datasets. To address these critical gaps, this research develops a comprehensive framework that synergizes a hierarchical similarity filtering mechanism with a structurally constrained non-crossing quantile regression model. First, the target sample is partitioned into several weather segments, and a new two-stage high-similarity weather pattern matching method is developed to screen multiple sets of historical samples that are highly similar to the target weather pattern. Second, a deep learning model for probabilistic wind power quantile forecasting is proposed, which incorporates historical data augmentation. The model utilizes an attention mechanism to extract the correlation between the target and historical segments, while an improved non-crossing quantile regression model is adopted to ensure the validity of the output quantiles. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through case studies using real-world data from an actual wind farm. Full article