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19 pages, 4068 KB  
Article
Geochemical Characterization and Provenance of Urban Stream Sediments Draining into the Keban Dam Lake, Türkiye: Implications for Environmental Monitoring and Sustainability
by Hatice Kara
Sustainability 2026, 18(9), 4233; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18094233 - 24 Apr 2026
Abstract
This study presents a comprehensive geochemical and isotopic investigation of urban stream sediments draining into the Keban Dam Lake in Eastern Türkiye. A total of 15 sediment samples were collected along a ~35 km transect, spanning rural-to-urban transition zones. PAAS-normalised REE patterns revealed [...] Read more.
This study presents a comprehensive geochemical and isotopic investigation of urban stream sediments draining into the Keban Dam Lake in Eastern Türkiye. A total of 15 sediment samples were collected along a ~35 km transect, spanning rural-to-urban transition zones. PAAS-normalised REE patterns revealed coherent light REE behaviour and positive Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 1.57–2.01), except sample K8 (Eu/Eu* = 0.91), indicating contributions from plagioclase-bearing lithologies. Enrichment Factor (EF) calculations based on scandium normalisation showed notable enrichment in Li, Zr, Nb, and REEs, reflecting felsic source rocks and mineralogical sorting. Multivariate statistical analyses (PCA and HCA) revealed distinct groupings of elements associated with lithogenic sources (Be, Sc, and Y) and anthropogenic inputs (Li, Sn, and Rb). Spatial clustering of samples into rural, transitional, and urban zones supported this differentiation, suggesting increasing anthropogenic influence downstream. Sr isotopic data (87Sr/86Sr = 0.7045–0.7057) and Pb isotope ratios (206Pb/204Pb = 18.914–18.947) suggest dominantly geogenic control, with slightly more radiogenic signatures in urban sediments. These integrated geochemical and isotopic results provide the provenance model for the Keban catchment, highlighting how natural lithological sources and urbanisation jointly shape sediment composition and metal distribution. The findings also provide a useful geochemical baseline for environmental monitoring, sediment quality assessment, and sustainable watershed management in the Keban Dam Lake basin. Full article
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21 pages, 1378 KB  
Article
Beneath the Surface: Understanding Septic System Management in New York State Watersheds
by Sharon Moran and Mackenzie Gregg
Water 2026, 18(9), 1010; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18091010 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
In the United States, most urban areas are served by sewers and wastewater treatment plants, while septic systems remain common in rural regions, in lower-density communities, and in areas with lower levels of public services. The policy frameworks for septic system management are [...] Read more.
In the United States, most urban areas are served by sewers and wastewater treatment plants, while septic systems remain common in rural regions, in lower-density communities, and in areas with lower levels of public services. The policy frameworks for septic system management are complex and variable, involving multiple key actors and levels of government and varying considerably from place to place. This research seeks to characterize the septic system management practices in two New York State watersheds: The first study area is located in central New York (the Lower Seneca River watershed) and comprises communities with greater reliance on surface water, and the second is in eastern New York on Long Island (Peconic Estuary Watershed), where groundwater is the primary source of drinking water. Since homeowner practices play a central role in outcomes, we also investigate homeowners’ understandings of their septic systems (also called onsite wastewater treatment systems, or OWTS). The methods used include policy analysis as well as qualitative research methods (interviews, focus groups, and survey research) to characterize homeowners’ perceptions and understandings, including their awareness of grant programs for septic system upgrades and replacement. The results show that most septic system owners hold only partial understandings of their systems. Their awareness of the connections between septic system management and groundwater protection is limited, with noted differences across watersheds. The study findings can inform future planning initiatives, as they illustrate the value of placing community water system understanding at the forefront of outreach efforts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Urban Water Management)
25 pages, 1814 KB  
Article
Watershed-Based Assessment and Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in the Beihai Forest Ecosystem, Tengchong
by Rongjun Du, Hongwei Jiang, Shuangzhi Li, Liangang Zhang, Wei Zhang, Chaolang Hua and Huijun Guo
Forests 2026, 17(5), 519; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17050519 (registering DOI) - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
The administrative boundaries of ecosystems do not necessarily align with natural watershed boundaries, which is a significant reason for the current inefficiency and pronounced conflicts in ecological governance. Using the watershed as the fundamental unit, this study assessed the forest ecosystem services (FES) [...] Read more.
The administrative boundaries of ecosystems do not necessarily align with natural watershed boundaries, which is a significant reason for the current inefficiency and pronounced conflicts in ecological governance. Using the watershed as the fundamental unit, this study assessed the forest ecosystem services (FES) of the Beihai Wetland watershed in Tengchong (As of 2025). Forest vegetation was classified to the formation level, and the functional value method was employed. The results showed the following order of service values: regulating services > provisioning services > supporting services > cultural services. Biodiversity was identified as the most valuable ecosystem function. The study further revealed that factors such as stand type, stand age, and altitude influence the total FES value within the watershed. Analysis of FES per unit stand (1 ha) indicated that Lithocarpus variolosus Franch. Chun (natural forest) exhibited the highest value. Through in-depth analysis of linear correlations and spatial associations of FES per unit stand, a synergy-trade-off visualization was constructed. This revealed that natural forests in the upper watershed may exert systemic effects on nutrient cycling in the lower watershed. The results obtained at the formation level provide support for the development of watershed-based forest tending plans. Moreover, studying FES using the watershed as a unit represents a practical exploration of the “life community of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, and deserts” and offers a potential reference for maintaining the ecological security and supporting the ecological protection and restoration of the Beihai watershed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecology and Management)
15 pages, 1027 KB  
Article
Impacts of Coal Resource Development on Naphthenic Acids in Water Resources: A Case Study from the Shenfu Open-Pit Coalfield, China
by Zhonggeng Luo, Handong Liang, Cai Tie and Xiulong Gao
Resources 2026, 15(5), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15050060 (registering DOI) - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Coal resource exploitation may alter hydrogeological conditions and influence the occurrence and migration of coal-derived organic contaminants in mining regions. Among these contaminants, naphthenic acids (NAs) have received increasing attention, whereas their occurrence and environmental behavior in coal mining areas remain insufficiently understood. [...] Read more.
Coal resource exploitation may alter hydrogeological conditions and influence the occurrence and migration of coal-derived organic contaminants in mining regions. Among these contaminants, naphthenic acids (NAs) have received increasing attention, whereas their occurrence and environmental behavior in coal mining areas remain insufficiently understood. For the first time in an open-pit coal mining setting, this study systematically investigated the concentrations and molecular compositions of NAs in surface water, groundwater, and source-related water samples from the Shenfu Coalfield, a representative mining area in China. NAs were detected in all samples, with concentrations exhibiting clear spatial variability. Groundwater consistently contained substantially higher NA levels than surface water, and elevated concentrations in downstream river reaches coincided spatially with groundwater discharge zones, identifying groundwater as a key reservoir and transport pathway for NAs in the mining-affected watershed. Principal component analysis further revealed compositional similarities among groundwater, coal-washing wastewater, and certain surface-water samples, indicating contributions from both coal-bearing strata and coal-processing activities. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating NAs into routine mine-water monitoring and groundwater protection programs in open-pit coal mining regions. Full article
42 pages, 2880 KB  
Review
Multiscale Modeling of Sediment Transport During Extreme Hydrological Events: Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions
by Jun Xu and Fei Wang
Water 2026, 18(9), 1004; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18091004 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Extreme hydrological events fundamentally alter sediment transport dynamics across grain, reach, and watershed scales, rendering classical equilibrium-based transport formulations inadequate. This review synthesizes recent advances in multiscale sediment transport modeling under highly unsteady and high-magnitude forcing conditions. At the grain scale, particle-resolved simulations [...] Read more.
Extreme hydrological events fundamentally alter sediment transport dynamics across grain, reach, and watershed scales, rendering classical equilibrium-based transport formulations inadequate. This review synthesizes recent advances in multiscale sediment transport modeling under highly unsteady and high-magnitude forcing conditions. At the grain scale, particle-resolved simulations demonstrate that sediment entrainment is governed by turbulence intermittency and transient force exceedance rather than mean bed shear stress thresholds, particularly when the hydrograph rise timescale (Th) becomes comparable to particle response times (Tp). At the reach scale, non-equilibrium transport emerges when the unsteadiness ratio Th/TaO(1), where Ta is the sediment adaptation timescale representing the time required for sediment flux to adjust toward transport capacity. Under these conditions, pronounced hysteresis between discharge and sediment flux is observed, requiring relaxation-based transport formulations instead of instantaneous equilibrium laws. At the watershed scale, the sediment delivery ratio (SDR), defined as the ratio of sediment yield at the basin outlet to total hillslope erosion, becomes highly time-dependent. Extreme precipitation events can activate hillslope-channel connectivity, increasing SDR by orders of magnitude relative to baseline conditions. A unified dimensionless scaling framework is presented based on mobility intensity (θ/θc, where θ is the Shields parameter and θc is its critical value for incipient motion), unsteadiness ratio (Th/Ta), and morphodynamic coupling (Tf/Tm, where Tf is the hydraulic advection timescale and Tm is the morphodynamic adjustment timescale). This framework enables classification of sediment transport regimes ranging from quasi-equilibrium to cascade-dominated states. The synthesis demonstrates that predictive uncertainty increases nonlinearly across scales due to timescale compression, threshold activation, and feedback between flow hydraulics and evolving morphology. Recent developments in hybrid physics-AI approaches show promise in improving predictive capability by enabling dynamic transport closures, surrogate modeling of computationally expensive microscale processes, and data assimilation for real-time forecasting. However, these approaches remain limited by extrapolation uncertainty and the need to enforce physical constraints. Overall, this review concludes that regime-aware multiscale coupling, combined with uncertainty quantification and adaptive modeling strategies, is essential for robust sediment hazard prediction and climate-resilient infrastructure design under intensifying hydrological extremes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Extreme Hydrological Events Modeling)
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21 pages, 2264 KB  
Article
SWAT-Based Development of Soil and Water Conservation Best Management Practices
by Nageswara Reddy Nagireddy, Venkata Reddy Keesara, Venkataramana Sridhar and Raghavan Srinivasan
Water 2026, 18(9), 1003; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18091003 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Streamflow and sediment yield are key components of river systems and are strongly influenced by anthropogenic land use changes. Soil erosion remains a critical environmental concern, degrading crop productivity, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and river morphology. Sediment transported from croplands to rivers and [...] Read more.
Streamflow and sediment yield are key components of river systems and are strongly influenced by anthropogenic land use changes. Soil erosion remains a critical environmental concern, degrading crop productivity, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and river morphology. Sediment transported from croplands to rivers and reservoirs introduces contaminants and exacerbates water pollution. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds using a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, targeting high sediment-yielding areas. BMP scenarios—including filter strips, sedimentation ponds, contour farming, and contour stone bunding—were assessed at watershed and sub-watershed scales. At the watershed scale, 10 m filter strips reduced sediment yield by 29% and 53% in the Nagavali and Vamsadhara watersheds, respectively. Combined BMP implementation further reduced sediment yield by 37% and 72%, and streamflow by 16.5% and 54%, respectively. These reductions persisted under future climate scenarios. The results highlight the potential of targeted BMP implementation to enhance watershed sustainability and support informed land and water management decisions. Full article
24 pages, 6056 KB  
Article
Physical and Biogeochemical Drivers for Forecasting Red Tides in Southwest Florida: A Regionally Integrated Machine Learning Framework
by Matthew Duus, Ahmed S. Elshall, Michael L. Parsons and Ming Ye
Environments 2026, 13(5), 239; https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13050239 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis (K. brevis) present a persistent ecological and public health challenge across coastal Florida. Reliable bloom forecasting is critical for protecting public health, supporting coastal economies, and enabling timely management responses. This study develops [...] Read more.
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis (K. brevis) present a persistent ecological and public health challenge across coastal Florida. Reliable bloom forecasting is critical for protecting public health, supporting coastal economies, and enabling timely management responses. This study develops a regionally integrated machine learning framework to predict weekly K. brevis bloom occurrence using environmental data from both the Peace and Caloosahatchee Rivers, combined with coastal bloom records from Southwest Florida and Tampa Bay to enhance the spatial and temporal continuity of the response record. A Random Forest classifier was trained on a multi-decadal dataset incorporating river discharge, nutrient concentrations (total nitrogen and total phosphorus), wind forcing, sea surface temperature, salinity, and sea surface height anomalies as a proxy for Loop Current variability. The model achieved strong predictive performance on a chronologically withheld test set, with an overall accuracy of ~90%, balanced accuracy of 87.6%, and ROC–AUC of 0.972, indicating strong discrimination between bloom and non-bloom conditions with high precision and recall for bloom events. Bloom timing and persistence were captured with strong agreement during ongoing bloom periods, while non-bloom conditions were identified with low false-positive rates. Feature-response analyses indicated that bloom probability increased most sharply under moderate discharge and nutrient conditions, with diminished sensitivity at higher extremes. Learning curve analysis demonstrated robust training performance and stable generalization, with validation accuracy plateauing near 84%, suggesting a data-limited ceiling on forecast skill. By aggregating nutrient inputs across multiple watersheds and integrating spatially aligned bloom observations, this study demonstrates the utility of multi-source machine learning frameworks for regional-scale HAB prediction. The results support the development of early warning tools and provide a reproducible foundation for evaluating how combined watershed loading and physical forcing are associated with K. brevis bloom occurrence in complex estuary systems with watershed and coastal coupling. Full article
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20 pages, 8882 KB  
Article
Assessing Soil Vulnerability to Water Erosion Under Dam Releases Using a Multi-Criteria Approach: Case of the Sidi Aich Basin, Southwestern Tunisia
by Fatma Karaouli, Mongi Ben Zaied, Nadia Khelif, Zaineb Ali, Fethi Abdelli, Houda Besser, Latifa Dhaouedi and Mohamed Ouessar
Soil Syst. 2026, 10(5), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/soilsystems10050051 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Soil erosion is a significant environmental concern in arid regions, particularly in dam-regulated watersheds, where intermittent flows from sprinkler irrigation can exacerbate land degradation. This study assesses soil erosion susceptibility in the Sidi Aich watershed using a combined approach of the Revised Universal [...] Read more.
Soil erosion is a significant environmental concern in arid regions, particularly in dam-regulated watersheds, where intermittent flows from sprinkler irrigation can exacerbate land degradation. This study assesses soil erosion susceptibility in the Sidi Aich watershed using a combined approach of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), enabling the integration of both regional characteristics and expert-driven weighting. The RUSLE model accounts for natural and human-induced factors, whereas AHP provides a hierarchical weighting system that highlights rainfall erosivity and the local impacts of dam-regulated discharges. Results show that 26.12% of the area falls into the very high susceptibility category, 25.45% into high, 23.91% into moderate, and 24.51% into low susceptibility. Model validation demonstrates satisfactory predictive performance, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.85 for AHP and 0.78 for RUSLE. Overall, the findings emphasize the critical role of dam-controlled releases in increasing soil vulnerability, a factor that may not be fully captured when using RUSLE alone. By combining RUSLE and AHP, this research provides a more realistic and regionally tailored assessment of erosion risk, offering valuable guidance for watershed management and erosion mitigation strategies in arid environments. Full article
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27 pages, 2093 KB  
Article
Flood Susceptibility Mapping and Runoff Modeling in the Upper Baishuijiang River Basin, China
by Hao Wang, Quanfu Niu, Jiaojiao Lei and Weiming Cheng
Remote Sens. 2026, 18(9), 1270; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18091270 - 22 Apr 2026
Viewed by 81
Abstract
Mountain flood susceptibility in complex mountainous basins is strongly influenced by terrain–climate interactions; however, the linkage between spatial susceptibility patterns and hydrological processes remains poorly understood. This study proposes a process-oriented framework that explicitly links flood susceptibility patterns with hydrological processes, moving beyond [...] Read more.
Mountain flood susceptibility in complex mountainous basins is strongly influenced by terrain–climate interactions; however, the linkage between spatial susceptibility patterns and hydrological processes remains poorly understood. This study proposes a process-oriented framework that explicitly links flood susceptibility patterns with hydrological processes, moving beyond conventional approaches that rely on independent model integration. The Baishuijiang River Basin, located in Wenxian County, southern Gansu Province, China, is selected as a representative mountainous watershed for this analysis. The specific conclusions are as follows: (1) Flood susceptibility was mapped using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)-enhanced Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model based on multi-source environmental variables, including climatic, terrain, soil, land cover, and vegetation factors. The model achieved high predictive accuracy (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) = 0.912), identifying precipitation of the driest month (bio14), elevation, and land use as dominant controlling factors. Medium-to-high-susceptibility areas account for approximately 22% of the basin and are mainly distributed along river valleys and flow convergence areas. These patterns are strongly associated with reduced infiltration capacity under dry antecedent conditions and enhanced flow concentration in steep terrain, and they exhibit clear nonlinear responses and threshold effects. (2) Hydrological simulations using Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) show good agreement with observed runoff (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) = 0.74−0.85). Sensitivity analysis indicates that runoff dynamics are primarily controlled by the Curve Number (CN), recession constant, and ratio to peak, corresponding to infiltration capacity, recession processes, and peak discharge amplification. The spatial consistency between high-susceptibility areas and areas of strong runoff response demonstrates that susceptibility patterns can be physically explained through hydrological processes, providing a process-based interpretation rather than a purely statistical prediction. (3) Future projections indicate that medium–high-susceptibility areas remain generally stable but show a gradual expansion (+5.2% ± 0.8%) and increasing concentration along river corridors under climate change scenarios. This reflects intensified precipitation variability and enhanced runoff concentration processes, suggesting a climate-driven amplification of flood risk in hydrologically connected areas. Overall, this study goes beyond conventional susceptibility assessment by establishing a physically interpretable framework that provides a consistent linkage between environmental controls, susceptibility patterns, and hydrological responses. The proposed approach is transferable to similar mountainous basins with strong terrain–climate interactions, although uncertainties related to data limitations and single-basin application remain and require further investigation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing for Planetary Geomorphology and Mapping)
17 pages, 5236 KB  
Article
Two Non-Learning Filters for the Enhancement of Images Obtained from a Fluorescence Imaging System, a Near-Infrared Camera, and Low-Light Condition
by Jun Hong, Xi He, Haoru Ning, Zhonghuan Su, Ling Zhang, Yingcheng Lin and Ye Wu
Electronics 2026, 15(9), 1777; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics15091777 - 22 Apr 2026
Viewed by 97
Abstract
Images obtained from imaging instruments can endure issues such as high degradation, color distortion, and weak brightness. Effective systems for enhancing these images are critically required. To improve the image quality, herein, we propose two filters based on simple functions, including cosine, sine, [...] Read more.
Images obtained from imaging instruments can endure issues such as high degradation, color distortion, and weak brightness. Effective systems for enhancing these images are critically required. To improve the image quality, herein, we propose two filters based on simple functions, including cosine, sine, hyperbolic secant, and the inverse of hyperbolic cosecant. These filters are used for enhancing the images obtained from a fluorescence imaging system, a near-infrared camera, and low-light condition. The contrast is increased while the image quality is improved. They perform better than a matched filter. Moreover, the combination of our filters with the filter based on the watershed algorithm or the matched filter can be used to extract the marginal features from images generated under water environment. Furthermore, their application in image fusion is explored. Our designed filters may be potentially used for future applications on target identification and tracking. Full article
21 pages, 1496 KB  
Article
A Decomposition-Based Deep Learning Model for Multivariate Water Quality Prediction
by Qiliang Zhu, Xueting Yu and Hongtao Fu
Sustainability 2026, 18(8), 4129; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18084129 - 21 Apr 2026
Viewed by 170
Abstract
The extensive deployment of automatic water quality monitoring stations has generated substantial volumes of time-series data. Effectively utilizing these data is crucial for enhancing prediction accuracy. To address the limitations of existing models in capturing complex inter-indicator relationships and multi-scale temporal features, this [...] Read more.
The extensive deployment of automatic water quality monitoring stations has generated substantial volumes of time-series data. Effectively utilizing these data is crucial for enhancing prediction accuracy. To address the limitations of existing models in capturing complex inter-indicator relationships and multi-scale temporal features, this paper proposes a hybrid prediction model integrating time series decomposition with deep learning techniques. Adopting a “decomposition–prediction–reconstruction” paradigm, the model first decomposes the raw time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components using STL (Seasonal–Trend decomposition using LOESS). For the trend component, an improved Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) is designed to explicitly model the spatial dependencies among different water quality indicators. For the seasonal component, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method is employed for multi-scale signal analysis, followed by a coupled Long Short-Term Memory–Convolutional Neural Network (LSTM-CNN) unit to capture both long-term dependencies and local features. To validate the efficacy of the proposed model, experiments were conducted on three real-world water quality datasets from different watersheds. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms mainstream baseline models, including StemGCN, LSTM-CNN, CEEMDAN-LSTM-CNN, and Attention-CLX. Across the three datasets, the model consistently outperforms the best-performing baseline, achieving reductions in MAE ranging from 13.8% to 24.5% and up to a 45.3% reduction in RMSE on a single dataset, while the highest correlation coefficient between predicted and observed values reaches 0.855. These findings demonstrate that the proposed decomposition–integration framework effectively enhances the accuracy and stability of multivariate water quality prediction, offering a promising tool for supporting sustainable water resource management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Management of Hydrology, Water Resources and Ecosystem)
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24 pages, 22374 KB  
Article
The Efficiency of Satellite Products to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Runoff and Water Availability in a Semi-Arid Basin
by Sana Elomari, El Mahdi El Khalki, Oussama Nait-Taleb, Maryem Ismaili, Jaouad El Atiq, Samira Krimissa, Mustapha Namous and Abdenbi Elaloui
Sustainability 2026, 18(8), 4089; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18084089 - 20 Apr 2026
Viewed by 533
Abstract
Climate change poses an escalating threat to global water resources, with semi-arid regions such as Morocco being particularly vulnerable due to high climatic variability and limited adaptive capacity. In these regions, including the Tassaoute watershed in central Morocco, data scarcity and uncertainties related [...] Read more.
Climate change poses an escalating threat to global water resources, with semi-arid regions such as Morocco being particularly vulnerable due to high climatic variability and limited adaptive capacity. In these regions, including the Tassaoute watershed in central Morocco, data scarcity and uncertainties related to data availability and quality frequently hinder robust assessments of climate change impacts. Recent advances in data science and remote sensing offer promising alternatives to overcome these limitations. This study investigates the potential of the PERSIANN-CDR satellite-derived precipitation product for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. The capability of PERSIANN-CDR to reproduce observed precipitation patterns and associated hydrological responses is evaluated through a comparative analysis using observed precipitation data. Results indicate that PERSIANN-CDR generally underestimates peak precipitation events and total rainfall amounts compared to in situ observations. Runoff is simulated using two hydrological models: GR2M (Génie Rural 2 parameters Mensuel) and the Thornthwaite water balance method, both driven by observed meteorological data and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation. The future water availability was assessed using 5 climate models, under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the periods 2030–2060 and 2061–2090. Results show a marked temperature increase of 2–3 °C across all models, accompanied by a general decline in precipitation ranging from −30% to −60% under RCP4.5 and −20% to −80% under RCP8.5. These climatic changes translate into substantial reductions in runoff, with stronger decreases projected under the high-emission scenario and during the dry season. Monthly analyses reveal pronounced seasonal contrasts, highlighting the increased sensitivity of low-flow periods to climate forcing. Overall, runoff is projected to decrease by 50–90%, with model and data-source differences highlighting the importance of multi-model and satellite-derived approaches in data-sparse regions. These results emphasize the utility of satellite precipitation datasets in guiding climate-adaptive water management strategies. Full article
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21 pages, 15402 KB  
Article
Downscaling Analysis of Remote Sensing Data Products Incorporating Physical Mechanisms Across Different Slope Positions in the New South Wales Catchment, Australia
by Yuwan Li, Wenjun Wang and Huanjun Liu
Remote Sens. 2026, 18(8), 1230; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18081230 - 18 Apr 2026
Viewed by 144
Abstract
The simulation accuracy and error sources of Remote Sensing (RS)-derived products, model-derived products, and RS-based assimilation products remain poorly understood across varying terrain conditions. Here, we investigated watershed-scale Soil Moisture (SM) dynamics across different slope positions using RS data assimilation, with the targeted [...] Read more.
The simulation accuracy and error sources of Remote Sensing (RS)-derived products, model-derived products, and RS-based assimilation products remain poorly understood across varying terrain conditions. Here, we investigated watershed-scale Soil Moisture (SM) dynamics across different slope positions using RS data assimilation, with the targeted area located in New South Wales, Australia. After evaluating and comparing the accuracy of existing SM products, a daily 1 km-resolution surface SM dataset was generated through data fusion. This product was then integrated with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model simulations using a Kalman filter approach, yielding a 10 m-resolution dataset with enhanced physical mechanism. Our results revealed that physically constrained products generally outperformed standalone RS inversions or hydrological model simulations, with their performance varied across slope positions. Furthermore, we demonstrated that high Soil Moisture Content (SMC) and spatial heterogeneity amplified SWAT model dominance in assimilated outcomes, whereas low SMC and spatial heterogeneity elevated RS contributions; the assimilated dataset consistently overcame limitations of standalone RS and hydrological model simulations across all slope positions. Our results demonstrated significant variations in the accuracy of RS-derived and model-derived products across distinct slope positions. This study systematically analyzed the underlying error mechanisms, contributing to intelligent water resource monitoring and water management decisions. Full article
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29 pages, 10861 KB  
Article
Integrating Hydrological Modeling and Geodetector to Reveal the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms of Water Resources in the Kaidu River Basin
by Tongxia Wang, Fulong Chen, Chaofei He, Fan Wu, Xuewen Xu and Fengnian Zhao
Sustainability 2026, 18(8), 3984; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18083984 - 17 Apr 2026
Viewed by 142
Abstract
In the context of climate change, the hydrological processes and water resource system vulnerabilities in inland river basins of arid regions are intensifying. Understanding their evolutionary patterns and driving mechanisms is crucial for sustainable water resource management, agricultural development, and the protection of [...] Read more.
In the context of climate change, the hydrological processes and water resource system vulnerabilities in inland river basins of arid regions are intensifying. Understanding their evolutionary patterns and driving mechanisms is crucial for sustainable water resource management, agricultural development, and the protection of ecological security. This study focuses on the Kaidu River Basin, systematically analyzing the temporal and spatial variations in hydrological cycle elements in the basin from 1998 to 2023 based on multi-source precipitation data, the SWAT hydrological model, and the glacier degree-day model. The study also identifies the main driving factors using a geographic detector. The results show that the SWAT model performs well (calibration period R2 and NSE ≥ 0.75, validation period R2 and NSE of 0.75 and 0.70, respectively), indicating reliable simulation results. The surface water resources and the contribution of glacier meltwater to runoff in the basin both show a fluctuating downward trend, while potential evapotranspiration increases. The contribution of glacier meltwater during the ablation season decreased from 69.86% in 2014–2016 to 45.01% in 2017–2021. The hydrological processes exhibit a spatial pattern of “mountain areas generating runoff, non-mountain areas consuming water”. The geographic detector results indicate that precipitation is the decisive factor for the spatial differentiation of hydrological processes (influence degree q = 56.9%), with temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and altitude playing important synergistic roles. Moreover, the explanatory power of multi-factor interactions is much greater than that of individual factors. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for the optimized allocation of watershed water resources, efficient agricultural irrigation, and the sustainable development of oasis ecosystems under changing environmental conditions, thereby supporting the goals of water security and sustainable development in inland river basins of arid regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainability in Geographic Science)
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17 pages, 2510 KB  
Article
Daily Runoff Series Prediction Using GWO Optimization and Secondary Decomposition: A Case Study of the Xujiang River Basin
by Qingyan Li, Manxin Quan, Xuwen Ouyang, Shumin Zhou, Xiling Zhang and Xiangui Lan
Water 2026, 18(8), 946; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18080946 - 15 Apr 2026
Viewed by 344
Abstract
Runoff time series often exhibit nonlinear and fluctuating characteristics, and their complexity has further increased with the intensification of global climate change; high-precision daily-scale forecasting remains a core challenge in the field of hydrological forecasting. Addressing the shortcomings of existing methods in terms [...] Read more.
Runoff time series often exhibit nonlinear and fluctuating characteristics, and their complexity has further increased with the intensification of global climate change; high-precision daily-scale forecasting remains a core challenge in the field of hydrological forecasting. Addressing the shortcomings of existing methods in terms of runoff feature extraction capabilities and limited forecasting accuracy, this paper aims to improve the accuracy of daily runoff forecasting in small watersheds by constructing a hybrid forecasting model that integrates optimization algorithms, signal decomposition, and deep learning models. Specifically, the original runoff data is first preliminarily decomposed using a variational mode decomposition (VMD) method optimized by the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm. The mode components obtained from the decomposition are evaluated using Fuzzy Entropy (FE), and the selected high-entropy components (IMFs) are then input into a second-order decomposition using an optimized Wavelet Transform (WT) to further extract latent features. After decomposition, the mode components are reassembled; second, a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model for daily runoff prediction is constructed for each subcomponent, and the model’s hyperparameters are optimized using an optimization algorithm; finally, the prediction results are reconstructed to obtain the final output. Case studies were conducted using three hydrological stations—Nanfeng, Baiquan, and Shaziling—in the Xujiang River basin of the Fuhe River. The experimental results indicate that by incorporating an optimization mechanism and a two-stage decomposition strategy, the proposed model achieved an NSE of over 0.95 at all three stations. Compared to the baseline BiLSTM model, the proposed model reduced the RMSE by 76.69%, 75.82%, and 65.92% at the three stations, respectively, and reduced the MAE by 64.77%, 73.54%, and 50.46%, and NSE increased by 27.82%, 40.06%, and 38.02%, respectively. This demonstrates that the model exhibits excellent reliability and superiority in daily-scale runoff forecasting for small watersheds. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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