Search Results (19)

Sri Lanka typically experiences anomalously wet conditions during the summer following El Niño events, but this response varies due to El Niño complexity. This study investigates the impact of post-El Niño conditions on Sri Lanka’s Monsoon rainfall, contrasting summers after fast- and slow-decaying El Niño events. Results indicate that fast-decaying El Niño events lead to wet and cool summers while slow-decaying events result in dry and warm summers. These contrasting responses are linked to sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the central to eastern Pacific. During the fast-decaying El Niño, the transition to La Niña generates strong easterlies in the central and eastern Pacific, enhancing moisture convergence, upward motion, and cloud cover, resulting in wetter conditions over Sri Lanka. During the fast-decaying El Niño, enhanced precipitation over the Maritime Continent acts as a diabatic heating source, inducing Gill-type easterly wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific. These winds promote coupled feedbacks that accelerate the transition to La Niña, strengthening moisture convergence and upward motion over Sri Lanka. Conversely, slow-decaying El Niño events are associated with cooling in the western North Pacific and warming in the Indian Ocean, which promotes the development of the western North Pacific anticyclone, suppressing upward motion and reducing cloud cover, leading to conditions over Sri Lanka. Changes in the Walker circulation further contribute to these distinct rainfall patterns, highlighting its influence on regional climate dynamics. These findings enhance our understanding of the seasonal predictability of rainfall in Sri Lanka during post-El Niño Summers. Full article

Heavy rainfall under the conditions of the changing climate has recently garnered considerable attention. The statistics on heavy daily rainfall offer vital information for assessing present and future extreme events and for clarifying the impacts of global climate variability and change, working to form a favorable background. By analyzing a set of large-ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model, this study demonstrated that two different physical processes in global climate variability control the interannual fluctuations in the 99th- and 90th-percentile values of summertime daily rainfall (i.e., the potential amounts) on Kyushu Island in western Japan. The 90th-percentile values were closely related to large-scale horizontal moisture transport anomalies due to changes in the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific, which was usually accompanied by basin-scale warming in the Indian Ocean subsequent to the wintertime El Niño events. The contributions of the sea surface temperatures over the northern Indian Ocean and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean showed low-frequency modulations, mainly due to the influences of the global warming tendency and the interdecadal variability in the climate system, respectively. In contrast, tropical cyclone activity played a major role in changing the 99th-percentile value. The potentials of both the tropical cyclone intensity and the existence density fluctuated, largely owing to the summertime sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific, which can be modulated by the El Niño diversity on interdecadal timescales. Full article

A typical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) generates a large region of enhanced rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean that moves slowly eastward into the western Pacific. Tropical cyclones often form on the poleward edges of the MJO moist-convective envelope, frequently impacting both southeast Asia and northern Australia, and on occasion Eastern Africa. This paper addresses the question of whether these MJO-induced tropical cyclones will become more numerous in the future as the oceans warm. The Lagrangian Atmosphere Model (LAM), which has been carefully tuned to simulate realistic MJO circulations, is used to study the sensitivity of MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) to global warming. A control simulation for the current climate is compared with a simulation with enhanced radiative forcing consistent with that for the latter part of the 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585. The LAM control run reproduces the observed MJO modulation of TCG, with about 70 percent more storms forming than monthly climatology predicts within the MJO’s convective envelope. The LAM SSP585 run suggests that TCG enhancement within the convective envelope could reach 170 percent of the background value under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, owing to a strengthening of Kelvin and Rossby wave components of the MJO’s circulation. Full article

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulates the generation of typhoons (TYs) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Using IBTrACS v04 tropical cyclone best path data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and the MJO index from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this paper defines an index to describe the persistent anomalies of the MJO and to examine the statistical characteristics of TYs over 44 years (1978–2021), focusing on the analysis of major differences in environmental conditions after the removal of the ENSO signal over the WNP. The results indicate that the persistent anomalous state of the MJO influences the change in large-scale environmental factors, which, in turn, affects the generation of TYs, as follows: (1) For the I high-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the Indian Ocean–South China Sea (SCS), the monsoon trough retreats westward, the warm pool becomes warmer, and the Walker circulation is enhanced. There is stronger upper-level divergence and low-level convergence, larger low-level relative vorticity, higher mid-level relative humidity, and smaller vertical wind shear in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. Consequently, these conditions foster a conducive environment for TY genesis in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. (2) For the I low-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the WNP–North America region, the monsoon trough extends eastward, the warm pool becomes colder, and the Walker circulation is weakened. Consequently, these conditions are more likely to facilitate TY genesis in the central–eastern WNP. The results show that persistent anomalies in MJO active centers can effectively improve the predictive ability of TY frequency. Full article

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people’s understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China’s middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their “multi-factor’s joint-action” mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this “multi-factor linkage mechanism” and “multi-phase relationship” in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales. Full article

The South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) and Western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) are both tropical systems that interact with each other on multiple scales. This study examines the differences in TCs activity characteristics between anomalous strong and weak SCSSM years, and explores the possible mechanisms behind these differences through the coupling relationship between tropical atmospheric circulation and oceanic surface conditions. Results show that the destructiveness of TCs over the Western North Pacific is stronger during weak SCSSM years than in strong years, whereas the opposite occurs for TCs over the SCS. The interaction between the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean and atmosphere plays a key role in the relationship between SCSSM intensity and TCs activity. In strong (weak) SCSSM years, the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific Ocean tends to correspond to a La Niña-like (El Niño-like) distribution, whereas the tropical Indian Ocean shows an Indian Ocean dipole-negative (positive) phase distribution. Moreover, Walker circulations in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans are coupled during these years, which creates a seesaw-like relationship in the conditions for TCs formation between the SCS and the Western Pacific Ocean. During weak SCSSM years, the formation and activity of TCs over the SCS are suppressed due to the weakened water vapor transport caused by abnormal easterly winds from the eastern Indian Ocean to the southern SCS. Meanwhile, the higher SSTA in the Western Pacific Ocean enhances the TCs activity. In strong SCSSM years, the enhanced monsoon drives a stronger monsoon trough, improving the convective environment over the SCS, whereas in contrast, the Western Pacific Ocean is covered by colder water, resulting in poorer conditions for TCs genesis. Full article

To investigate the main modes of interannual variation of chlorophyll-a (Chla) with seasonal evolution and its variation cycle in the North Indian Ocean based on satellite-derived products during 1998–2016, a season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) analysis and power spectrum analysis based on Fourier transform are applied in the study. The first three dominate modes reveal distinct Chla variability, as the S-EOF1 features by one dipole pattern have a negative anomaly in the central western Indian Ocean and a positive anomaly off the Java–Sumatra coasts, which is mainly synchronously associated with the climate indices of the positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and eastern Pacific El Nino (EP-El Niño). The S-EOF2 indicates a tripolar structure with positive anomalies located in the central Indian Ocean surrounded by two negative anomalies, which is one year behind a positive IOD and EP-El Niño event. The S-EOF3 exhibits a different dipole distribution, with a positive anomaly in the central west and a negative anomaly in the southeast, synchronized or lagging behind the central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Niño). Moreover, regarding the correlation between the main modes of interannual variation and the IOD and El Nino events, the dynamic parameters (such as SST, SLA, rain, and wind) of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean are discussed using time-delay correlation and linear regression analysis to explain the key factors and possible influencing mechanism of the joint seasonal and interannual variations of Chla in the northern Indian Ocean. Full article

The Tongbai Mountains are an ecologically sensitive region to climate change, where there lies a climatic transitional zone from a subtropical to a warm–temperate monsoon climate. The northern boundary of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata is here; thus, climate information is well recorded in its tree rings. Based on developed earlywood width (EWW), latewood width (LWW) and total ring width (RW) chronologies (time period: 1887–2014 year) of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata in the Tongbai Mountains in central China, this paper analyzed characteristics of these chronologies and correlations between these chronologies and climate factors. The correlation results showed that earlywood width chronology contains more climate information than latewood width chronology and total ring width chronology, and mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in May–June were the main limiting factors for radial growth of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata. The highest significant value in all correlation analyses is −0.669 (p < 0.05) between earlywood width chronology and May–June mean temperature (T_MJ) in the pre-mutation period (1958–2005) based on mutating in 2006. Thus, this paper reconstructed May–June mean temperature using earlywood width chronology from 1901 to 2005 (reliable period of earlywood width chronology is 1901–2014). The reconstructed May–June mean temperature experienced eight warmer periods and eight colder periods and also showed 2–3a cycle change over the past 105 years. The spatial correlation showed that the reconstructed series was representative of the May–June mean temperature variation in central and eastern China and significant positive/negative correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean from the previous October to the current June. This also indicated that May–June mean temperature periodic fluctuations might be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. The results of this study have extended and supplemented the meteorological records of the Tongbai Mountains and have a guiding significance for forest tending and management in this area. Full article

The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is one of the main modes characterizing the interannual variability of the large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the equatorial zone of the World Ocean. A dipole manifests itself as an out-of-phase interannual fluctuation of the ocean–atmosphere characteristics in the western and eastern parts of the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean. IOD can be a consequence of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) events in the Pacific Ocean, or it can be independent of them and arise due to the Indian Ocean inherent processes. Earlier, it was suggested that the generation of the long planetary waves in the Indian Ocean by the ENSO events is one of the mechanisms of the ENSO impact on the IOD. However, quite often, such a mechanism is not the case and IOD is generated itself as an independent Indian Ocean mode. We hypothesized that this generation is due to the growing oceanic disturbances, as a result of instability of the system of Indian Ocean zonal currents in the vicinity of the critical layer, in which the phase velocity of Rossby waves is equal to the average velocity of the zonal currents. In the present work, the study of the features of the formation of the critical layer in the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean is continued using different oceanic re-analyses and standard theory of the Rossby waves. As a result of comparison of different re-analyses data with the RAMA (The Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction) measurements, the operative re-analysis ORAS5 output of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on potential temperature, salinity, and the zonal component of the currents’ velocity for the period 1979–2018 was used. Monthly profiles of potential temperature, salinity, and the zonal component of the currents’ velocity were selected from the ORAS5 archive for the sections situated between 7.5–15.5° S and 50–100° E. From these data and for each month, using the standard theory of planetary waves, the phase velocity of the lowest baroclinic mode of the Rossby long waves was calculated and the critical layers were determined. For each critical layer, its length was calculated. The obtained time series of the length of the critical layers were compared to the variability of dipole mode index (DMI). It is shown that the majority of the cases of the IOD generation as inherent (independent on the Pacific processes) mode were accompanied by the critical layer formation in the region of interest. Usually, the critical layers occur in spring, one to two months before the onset of the positive IOD events. This indicates that the presence of instability in the system of the zonal currents can be a reason for the generation of IOD and the asymmetry of the amplitude of the dipole mode index between positive and negative events. During the extremely intense ENSO event of 1997–1998, which was accompanied by the strong IOD event, the critical layer in the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean was absent. This ENSO event generated the oceanic planetary waves at the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is shown that the above mechanism of the ENSO–IOD interaction is a reality. Full article

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), atmosphere, and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) together constitute a regional land–atmosphere–ocean water vapor transport system. This study uses remote sensing data, reanalysis data, and observational data to explore the spatiotemporal variations of the summer atmospheric water cycle over the TP and its possible response to the air-sea interaction in the IPWP during the period 1958–2019. The results reveal that the atmospheric water cycle process over the TP presented an interannual and interdecadal strengthening trend. The climatic precipitation recycle ratio (PRR) over the TP was 18%, and the stronger the evapotranspiration, the higher the PRR. On the interdecadal scale, the change in evapotranspiration has a significant negative correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The variability of the water vapor transport (WVT) over the TP was controlled by the dynamic and thermal conditions inside the plateau and the external air-sea interaction processes of the IPWP. When the summer monsoon over the TP was strong, there was an anomalous cyclonic WVT, which increased the water vapor budget (WVB) over the TP. The central and eastern tropical Pacific, the maritime continent and the western Indian Ocean together constituted the triple Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, which enhanced the convective activity over the IPWP and induced a significant easterly wind anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere, and then generated pronounced easterly WVT anomalies from the tropical Pacific to the maritime continent and the Bay of Bengal. Affected by the air-sea changes in the IPWP, the combined effects of the upstream strengthening and the downstream weakening in the water vapor transport process, directly and indirectly, increased the water vapor transport and budget of TP. Full article

This paper examines the effects of the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes in the interannual variations of austral spring rainfall over South America (SA). The TPO mode refers to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The isolated effects between IOD and TPO were estimated, events were chosen from the residual TPO (R-TPO) or residual IOD (R-IOD), and the IOD (TPO) effects for the R-TPO (R-IOD) composites were removed from the variables. One relevant result was the nonlinear precipitation response to R-TPO and R-IOD. This feature was accentuated for the R-IOD composites. The positive R-IOD composite showed significant negative precipitation anomalies along equatorial SA east of 55° W and in subtropical western SA, and showed positive anomalies in northwestern SA and central Brazil. The negative R-IOD composite indicated significant positive precipitation anomalies in northwestern Amazon, central–eastern Brazil north of 20° S, and western subtropical SA, and negative anomalies were found in western SA south of 30° S. This nonlinearity was likely due to the distinct atmospheric circulation responses to the anomalous heating sources located in longitudinally distinct regions: the western tropical Indian Ocean and areas neighboring Indonesia. The results obtained in this study might be relevant for climate monitoring and modeling studies. Full article

The effects of El Niño on the predictability of positive Indian Ocean dipole (pIOD) events are investigated by using the GFDL CM2p1 coupled model from the perspective of error growth. The results show that, under the influence of El Niño, the summer predictability barrier (SPB) for pIOD tends to intensify and the winter predictability barrier (WPB) is weakened. Since the reason for the weakening of WPB has been explained in a previous study, the present study attempts to explore why the SPB is enhanced. The results demonstrate that the initial sea temperature errors, which are most likely to induce SPB for pIOD with El Niño, possess patterns similar to those for pIOD without El Niño, whose dominant errors concentrate in the tropical Pacific Ocean (PO), with a pattern of negative SST errors occurring in the eastern and central PO and subsurface sea temperature errors being negative in the eastern PO and positive in the western PO. By tracking the development of such initial errors, it is found that the initial errors over PO lead to anomalous westerlies in the southeastern Indian Ocean (IO) through the effect of double-cell Walker circulation. Such westerly anomalies are inhibited by the strongest climatological easterly wind and the southeasterlies related to the pIOD event itself in summer, while they are enhanced by El Niño. This competing effect causes the intensified seasonal variation in latent heat flux, with much less loss in summer under the effect of El Niño. The greater suppression of the loss of latent heat flux favors the positive sea surface temperature (SST) errors developing much faster in the eastern Indian Ocean in summer, and eventually induces an enhanced SPB for pIOD due to El Niño. Full article

Currently, several ocean data assimilation methods have been adopted to increase the performance of air–sea coupled models, but inconsistent adjustments between the sea temperature with other oceanic fields can be introduced. In the coupled model CAS-ESM-C, inconsistent adjustments for ocean currents commonly occur in the tropical western Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean. To overcome this problem, a new ensemble-based bias correction approach—a simple modification of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) approach for multi-variable into a direct approach for a single variable—is proposed to minimize the model biases. Compared with the EnOI approach, this new approach can effectively avoid inconsistent adjustments. Meanwhile, the comparisons suggest that inconsistent adjustment mainly results from the unreasonable correlations between temperature and ocean current in the background matrix. In addition, the ocean current can be directly corrected in the EnOI approach, which can additionally generate biases for the upper ocean. These induced ocean biases can produce unreasonable ocean heat sinking and heat storage in the tropical western Pacific. It will generate incorrect ocean heat transmission toward the east, further amplifying the inconsistency introduced through the tropical air–sea interaction process. Full article

2016 and 2017 were marked by strong El Niño and weak La Niña events, respectively, in the tropical East Pacific Ocean. The strong El Niño and weak La Niña events in the Pacific significantly impacted the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and were followed by extreme negative and weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases in 2016 and 2017, which triggered floods in the Indian subcontinent and drought conditions in East Africa. The IOD is an irregular and periodic oscillation in the Indian Ocean, which has attracted much attention in the last two decades due to its impact on the climate in surrounding landmasses. Much work has been done in the past to investigate global climate change and its impact on the evolution of IOD. The dynamic behind it, however, is still not well understood. The present study, using various satellite datasets, examined and analyzed the dynamics behind these events and their impacts on SST variability in the TIO. For this study, the monthly mean SST data was provided by NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST). SST anomalies were measured on the basis of 30-year mean daily climatology (1981–2010). It was determined that the eastern and western poles of the TIO play quite different roles during the sequence of negative and positive IOD phases. The analysis of air-sea interactions and the relationship between wind and SST suggested that SST is primarily controlled by wind force in the West pole. On the other hand, the high SST that occurred during the negative IOD phase induced local convection and westerly wind anomalies via the Bjerknes feedback mechanism. The strong convection, which was confined to the (warm) eastern equatorial Indian Ocean was accompanied by east–west SST anomalies that drove a series of downwelling Kelvin waves that deepened the thermocline in the east. Another notable feature of this study was its observation of weak upwelling along the Omani–Arabian coast, which warmed the SST by 1 °C in the summer of 2017 (as compared to 2016). This warming led to increased precipitation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during the summer of 2017. The results of the present work will be important for the study of monsoons and may be useful in predicting both droughts and floods in landmasses in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean, especially in the Indian subcontinent and East African regions. Full article

Using the four-times daily and monthly-mean reanalysis datasets of NCEP/NCAR for the 1958 to 2018 period, we investigate the interannual variability of the June-July-August (JJA)–mean water vapor source and sink over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean-Western Pacific (TEIOWP) and the underlying mechanism. It is found that the two major modes (EOF1 and EOF2) of the water vapor source and sink anomalies over the TEIOWP present a southwest-northeast oriented dipole and a southwest-northeast oriented tripole. Specifically, when the western maritime continent shows an anomalous water vapor source, the northwestern Pacific is characterized by anomalous water vapor sink and source in EOF1 and EOF2 modes, respectively. The EOF1 and EOF2 modes are primarily driven by a single and a double meridional cell anomaly, which corresponds to the in-phase and out-of-phase linkage between evaporation anomalies over the western maritime continent and precipitation anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, respectively. Furthermore, the EOF1 mode is regulated by the quick transition of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, whereas the EOF2 mode probably originates from internal atmospheric variability. Considering that the standard deviation of PC1 is much higher during ENSO years than that during non-ENSO years, it is probable that the water source and sink anomalies over the TEIOWP tend to be dominant by EOF1 mode during ENSO years. In contrast, the EOF2 mode may play an important role in the water source and sink anomalies over the TEIOWP during non-ENSO years. Accordingly, the water vapor source and sink anomalies over the TEIOWP may be well predicted based on the ENSO state in the previous December-January-February. These results are useful for understanding the predictability of water vapor source and sink anomalies over the TEIOWP. Full article