Search Results (34)

Building Information Modelling (BIM) has digitized construction, yet automated cost estimation still suffers from fragmented data and deterministic forecasts that ignore uncertainty. To address this gap, this study introduces a novel framework integrating agentic artificial intelligence (AI) with large language models (LLMs) to enable probabilistic cost estimation from disparate BIM data. The system employs four specialized collaborative agents operating via a shared memory module centered on an LLM with natural language understanding, code generation, and chain-of-thought reasoning. A prototype using GPT-4 Turbo, AutoGen, and Monte Carlo simulation was tested on three real-world structures. Compared to three baselines, the framework reduced processing time (4.2 vs. 18.5–68.0 min), manual interventions (0.8 vs. 9–14), and improved entity resolution accuracy (86.5% vs. 46–62%) with well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts, achieving 86.0% empirical coverage for nominal 90% prediction intervals (Prediction Interval Coverage Probability [PICP] = 86.0%, Prediction Interval Width [PIW] = 0.28; p < 0.01). Qualitative analysis confirmed effective semantic conflict resolution and actionable risk visualization via tornado diagrams. The framework tackles long-standing BIM estimation challenges by delivering probabilistic, transparent outputs. Future work includes digital twin integration, open-source LLM deployment, and during-construction forecasting. Full article

Accurate reservoir history matching is indispensable for reliable subsurface forecasting and optimal field development; however, it remains a formidable challenge due to the high dimensionality of geological parameter spaces, strong nonlinear dynamics, and the competing demands of computational efficiency and data fidelity. Conventional automated history matching workflows frequently rely on Tornado sensitivity analysis, which evaluates parameters in isolation and fails to capture critical interdependencies that govern reservoir response, leading to inefficient exploration and suboptimal convergence. This study, therefore, introduces a novel Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP)-assisted adaptive history matching framework that integrates SHAP with a CatBoost (v1.0.0) regressor to enable quantitative, model-agnostic assessment of parameter contributions while explicitly resolving non-linear feature interactions unattainable with conventional methods. The workflow establishes a systematic methodology for refining parameter uncertainty ranges prior to optimization through SHAP dependence plots, which identify subspaces where the objective function decreases, yielding 25–68% range reductions across all cases without compromising geological plausibility. Both SHAP-assisted and Tornado-based workflows, coupled with identical Particle Swarm Optimization settings, are rigorously validated on two synthetic reservoirs (SRM-6, Egg) and a real Siberian field case. Results demonstrate that the SHAP-assisted approach achieves equivalent or superior history match quality while reducing required optimization cycles by 6–60%, depending on model complexity, delivering lower objective function values and improved alignment with observed data. Computational efficiency is further enhanced by reusing the Latin Hypercube Sampling dataset for surrogate training, sensitivity analysis, and range refinement, contrasting sharply with Tornado’s requirement for 2N + 1 dedicated simulation runs with limited reusability. This framework advances interpretable, data-driven history matching by providing engineers with a systematic method to prioritize calibration efforts, reduce computational burden, and improve forecast reliability in complex reservoir systems. Full article

Accurate forecasting of agricultural product prices is crucial for informed decision-making in agricultural markets; however, such time series are inherently characterized by non-stationarity, multi-scale dynamics, and substantial noise, posing significant challenges to conventional methods. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a novel hybrid framework, termed TOC-CNN-BiLSTM-SA, built upon a “quadratic decomposition–clustering–optimization” paradigm. Specifically, a composite CEEMDAN–K-means++–VMD approach is first employed to hierarchically decompose the raw price series via coarse decomposition, feature clustering, and refined decomposition, enabling effective noise suppression and multi-scale feature extraction. Subsequently, a deep learning architecture integrating Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks (BiLSTM), and a self-attention mechanism is developed, where CNN captures local patterns, BiLSTM models bidirectional temporal dependencies, and the attention mechanism enhances global feature representation. Furthermore, the Tornado Optimizer with Coriolis force (TOC) is introduced to adaptively tune key hyperparameters, thereby improving model robustness and generalization capability. Empirical results based on wheat price data from Henan Province, China, demonstrate that the proposed model achieves outstanding predictive performance, with RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² values of 4.425, 3.9372, 0.16%, and 99.97%, respectively, significantly outperforming existing benchmark models. These research indicate that the proposed framework effectively captures complex price dynamics and offers a reliable and practical solution for agricultural price forecasting. Full article

Tornado occurrence and detection are well established in mesoscale meteorology, yet the application of deep learning (DL) to radar-based tornado detection remains nascent and under-validated. This study benchmarks DL approaches on TorNet, a curated dataset of full-resolution, polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar volumes. We evaluate three canonical architectures (e.g., CNN, VGG19, and Xception) under five optimizers and assess the effect of replacing conventional MLP heads with Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN) layers. To address severe class imbalance and label noise, we implement radar-aware preprocessing and augmentation, temporal splits, and recall-sensitive training. Models are compared using accuracy, precision, recall, and ROC-AUC. Results show that KAN-augmented variants generally converge faster and deliver higher rare-event sensitivity and discriminative power than their baselines, with Adam and RMSprop providing the most stable training and Lion showing architecture-dependent gains. We contribute (i) a reproducible baseline suite for TorNet, (ii) evidence on the conditions under which KAN integration improves tornado detection, and (iii) practical guidance on optimizer–architecture choices for rare-event forecasting with weather radar. Full article

Risk management is vital for financial institutions to evaluate and mitigate potential losses. Thunderstorm count modeling with risk analysis is used by various sectors, such as insurance and utility companies, to forecast storm recurrence, analyze risk, and estimate financial losses based on factors like wind speed, hail size, and tornado potential. This paper introduces a novel discrete distribution, the Beta-Gamma Discrete (BGD) distribution, designed for modeling count data that inherently excludes zero values. Developed through the compounding of a discrete gamma distribution with a beta distribution, the BGD offers significant flexibility in handling overdispersion and complex data characteristics. The study derives key statistical properties of the BGD, including its probability mass function, moments, hazard rate function, moment generating function, and mean residual life. A comprehensive characterization theorem is also established. The model’s practical utility is demonstrated through an application to thunderstorm event data from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), where the frequency of thunderstorms per event is a critical operational concern. The performance of the BGD is thoroughly assessed against established zero-truncated models—namely, the Zero-Truncated Generalized Poisson (ZTGP), Size-Biased Negative Binomial (SBNB), and Zero-Truncated Generalized Negative Binomial (ZTGNB)—using evaluation criteria such as Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Chi-square goodness-of-fit, and the Vuong test. The results consistently show that the BGD provides a superior and more accurate fit for the thunderstorm data, thus help NASA and other space agencies for establishing it as a robust and effective tool for modeling positive count data in meteorological and other applied contexts with risk analysis. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) frequently encompass multiple hazards, including extreme winds, intense rainfall, storm surges, flooding, lightning, and tornadoes. Accurate methods for forecasting TC tracks are essential to mitigate the loss of life and property associated with these hazards. Despite significant advancements, accurately forecasting the paths of TCs remains a challenge, particularly when they interact with complex land features, weaken into remnants after landfall, or are influenced by abnormal satellite observations. To address these challenges, we propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) model with a multi-scale architecture that processes input data at four distinct resolution levels. The model is designed to handle diverse inputs, including satellite cloud imagery, vorticity, wind speed, and geopotential height, and it features an advanced center detection algorithm to ensure precise TC center identification. Our model demonstrates robustness during testing, accurately predicting TC paths over both ocean and land while also identifying weak TC remnants. Compared to other deep learning approaches, our method achieves superior detection accuracy with an average error of 41.0 km for all landfalling TCs in Australia from 2015 to 2020. Notably, for five TCs with abnormal satellite observations, our model maintains high accuracy with a prediction error of 35.2 km, which is a scenario often overlooked by other approaches. Full article

Tornadoes are severe convective weather exhibiting localized and sudden occurrences. Weather radar is widely regarded as the most effective tool for monitoring tornadoes and issuing early warnings. Dual-polarization updating has significantly improved tornado prediction and forecasting abilities. This article proposes an innovative tornado detection algorithm based on XGBoost which is suitable for dual-polarization radar data, was upgraded and has been used in China since 2019, and has been applied in the Tornado Key Open Laboratory of the China Meteorological Administration. The characteristics associated with the velocity attributes, reflectivity, velocity spectrum width, differential reflectivity, and correlation coefficient are used in the algorithm to achieve real-time tornado detection. Experimental evaluations have demonstrated that the proposed algorithm significantly improves tornado detection rates and leading times. Compared with the traditional TDA-RF algorithm based on Doppler weather radar data, the TDA-XGB algorithm introduces dual polarization parameters (such as differential reflectivity and the correlation coefficient), which effectively improves tornado identification performance. In addition, the TDA-XGB algorithm combines artificial intelligence-assisted learning to optimize the traditional algorithm based on the tornado vortex signature (TVS) and tornado debris signature (TDS), further improving the detection effect. Furthermore, the algorithm provides classification probabilities in the genesis and evolution of tornadoes, thereby supporting forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and issue timely tornado warnings. Full article

Intense convection is often accompanied by high-frequency lightning and is highly prone to producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and tornadoes, frequently resulting in significant damage and loss of life. It is necessary to understand the mechanisms and meteorological conditions of intense convection. This study utilizes the Thunderstorm Feature Dataset from 2010–2018 to analyze the characteristics of thunderstorms with extreme lightning activity (TELAs), defined as thunderstorms whose lightning frequency ranks in the top 1%. Four regions with relatively high thunderstorm activity were selected for analysis: Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), South China (SC), and the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In NEC, TELAs primarily occur just west of upper-level westerly troughs (UWT), including cold vortices. In NC, TELAs are mainly associated with UWT and subtropical highs (STH). In SC, TELAs are related to frontal systems, easterly waves, tropical cyclones, and STH. In TP, TELAs are generated by TP vortices. Before the TELA process, vertically integrated moisture divergence (VIMD) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) show the most notable anomalies. Except for the TP, TELAs are typically located between centers of anomalies with positive and negative geopotential height (500 hPa) and near centers of anomalies with positive CAPE and negative VIMD, accompanied by notable increases in surface temperature and wind speed. These findings offer a valuable reference for the early warning and forecasting of intense convection. Full article

The continental United States is a global hotspot of severe thunderstorms and therefore is particularly vulnerable to social and economic damages from high-impact severe convective weather (SCW), such as tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and large hail. However, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal climatology and variability of SCW occurrence is still lacking, and the potential change in SCW frequency and intensity in response to anthropogenic climate warming is highly uncertain due to deficient and sparse historical records and the global and regional climate model’s inability to resolve thunderstorms. This study investigates SCW in the Central and Eastern United States in spring and early summer for the current and future warmed climate using two multi-year continental-scale convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The pair of simulations consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during October 2000–September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. A proxy based on composite reflectivity and updraft helicity threshold is applied to infer the simulated SCW occurrence. Results indicate that the retrospective simulation captures reasonably well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of the observed SCW events, with an exception of an overestimate along the Atlantic and Gulf coast. In a warmer-moister future, most regions experience intensified SCW activity, most notably in the early-middle spring, with the largest percentage increase in the foothills and higher latitudes. In addition, a shift of simulated radar reflectivity toward higher values, in association with the significant thermodynamic environmental response to climatic warming, potentially increases the SCW severity and resultant damage. Full article

This systematic review, based on an adaptation of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement from 2020, focuses on studies of the atmospheric mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal, as well as observed trends and projections. The 54 selected articles cover the period from 2000 to 2024, in which the most used keywords are “portugal” and “extreme precipitation”. Of the 54, 23 analyse trends and climate projections of precipitation events, confirming a decrease in total annual precipitation, especially in autumn and spring, accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in autumn, spring and winter. Several articles (twelve) analyse the relationship between synoptic-scale circulation and heavy precipitation, using an atmospheric circulation types approach. Others (two) establish the link with teleconnection patterns, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and still others (three) explore the role of atmospheric rivers. Additionally, five articles focus on evaluating databases and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, and nine articles focus on precipitation-related extreme weather events, such as tornadoes, hail and lightning activity. Despite significant advances in the study of extreme precipitation events in Portugal, there is still a lack of studies on hourly or sub-hourly scales, which is critical to understanding mesoscale, short-lived events. Several studies show NWP models still have limitations in simulating extreme precipitation events, especially in complex orography areas. Therefore, a better understanding of such events is fundamental to promoting continuous improvements in operational weather forecasting and contributing to more reliable forecasts of such events in the future. Full article

The Entscheidungsnavi is an open-source decision support system based on multi-attribute utility theory, that offers various methods for dealing with uncertainties. To model decisions with uncertainties, decision-makers can use two categories: Forecast and Parameter Uncertainties. Forecast Uncertainty is modeled with (combined) influence factors using discrete, user-defined probability distributions or predefined ‘worst-median-best’ distributions. Parameter Uncertainty allows imprecision for utilities, objective weights, and probability distributions. To analyze these uncertainties, the Entscheidungsnavi offers several methods and tools, like a robustness check, based on (Monte Carlo) simulations and a sensitivity analysis. The objective weight analysis provides insights into the effects of different objective weight combinations. Indicator impacts, tornado diagrams, and risk profiles visualize the impact of uncertainties in a decision under risk. Risk profiles also enable a check for stochastic and simulation dominance. This article presents the complete range of methods for dealing with uncertainties in the Entscheidungsnavi using a hypothetical case study. Full article

The presence of deep convective clouds is directly related to potential convective hazards, such as lightning strikes, hail, severe storms, flash floods, and tornadoes. On the other hand, Mexico has a limited and heterogeneous network of instruments that allow for efficient and reliable monitoring and forecasting of such events. In this study, a quasi-real-time framework for deep convective cloud identification and modeling based on machine learning (ML) models was developed. Eight different ML models and model assembly approaches were fed with Interest Fields estimated from Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) sensor data on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) for one region in central Mexico and another in northeastern Mexico, both selected for their intense convective activity and high levels of vulnerability to severe weather. The results indicate that a simple approach such as Logistic Regression (LR) or Random Forest (RF) can be a good alternative for the identification and simulation of deep convective clouds in both study areas, with a probability of detection of (POD) ≈ 0.84 for Los Mochis and POD of ≈ 0.72 for Mexico City. Similarly, the false alarm ratio (FAR) ≈ 0.2 and FAR ≈ 0.4 values were obtained for Los Mochis and Mexico City, respectively. Finally, a post-processing filter based on lightning incidence (Lightning Filter) was applied with data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) of the GOES-16 satellite, showed great potential to improve the probability of detection (POD) of the ML models. This work sets a precedent for the implementation of an early-warning system for hazards associated with intense convective activity in Mexico. Full article

In recent decades, renewable energy projects have required careful consideration of environmental factors. This study investigates the impact of a mid-latitude cyclone on planned floating photovoltaic (FPV) facilities in Antalya, Turkey, focusing on the severe thunderstorm events that brought heavy rainfall and tornadoes in January 2019. Synoptic analysis reveals a deep cut-off low over the Genoa Gulf, causing trough formation and vertical cloud development due to moisture convergence. Warm air advection pushed an unstable thunderstorm system northward along an occluded front. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, sensitivity analysis is conducted, highlighting regional variations in wind speeds. The model outputs are compared with observations, identifying the best configuration using statistical indicators. The Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and the Milbrandt microphysics scheme produced better results in the western and central regions. The model output of the best configurations is used to calculate regional wave characteristics with a modified Shore Protection Manual (SPM) method for water reservoirs. These findings offer invaluable insights for future FPV projects, providing a better understanding of how to address challenges posed by extreme weather conditions and how to enhance system safety and reliability. Full article

As a part of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Observing System, HIRAS-1 and HIRAS-2’s observations’ impact on improving the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) can be summarized into two questions: (1) Will HIRAS observation help the NWP system to improve its accuracy? (2) Which instrument has the greater impact on NWP? To answer the questions, four experiments are designed here: (I) the HIRAS-1 experiment, which assimilates the principal component (PC) scores derived from HIRAS-1 radiance observation from the FY-3D satellite; (II) the HIRAS-2 experiment, which assimilates HIRAS-2 (onboard the FY-3E satellite) radiance-observation-derived PC scores; (III) the J-01 experiment, which assimilates JPSS1 CrIS radiance-observation-derived PC scores; (IV) the control experiment. Each experiment generated a series of forecasts with 24 h lead-time from 16 March 2022 to 12 April 2022 using the Unified Forecast System Short-Range Weather application. Forecast evaluation using radiosonde and aircraft observation reveals: (a) for upper-level variables (i.e., temperature and specific humidity), assimilating HIRAS observation can improve the NWP’s performance by decreasing the standard deviation (Stdev) and increasing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC); (b) according to the multi-category Heidke skill score, HIRAS assimilation experiments, especially the HIRAS-2 experiment, have a higher agreement with hourly precipitation observations; (c) based on two tornado-outbreak case studies, which occurred on 30 March 2022 and 5 April 2022, HIRAS observation can increase the predicted intensity of 0–1 km storm relative helicity and decrease the height of the lifted condensation level at tornado outbreak locations; and (d) compared to CrIS, HIRAS-2 still has room for improvement. Full article

A heuristic technique for tornado forecasting in the complex terrain of southern Wyoming is proposed for the weather sciences community. This novel approach is based on seasonal tornado climatology and observed mesoscale conditions obtained from in-situ surface and Doppler weather radar sources. The methodology is applied to four severe thunderstorm events which formed tornadoes during the spring and summer months of 2018 and 2019 in Albany County of Wyoming. Tornadic evolution is associated with supercell thunderstorms forming along moisture convergence axes of a dryline and updraft interactions with air mass stretching and shearing over the complex terrain. Applying Bayes’ theorem to each case, there is a low to high (30 to 80%) posterior probability associated with vortex detection. Full article