Search Results (568)

The efficient and rational development of hydropower in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin can promote green energy transition, reduce carbon emissions, prevent and mitigate flood and drought disasters, and ensure the sustainable development of the entire basin. In this study, based on publicly available hydrometeorological observation data and satellite remote sensing monitoring data from 2001 to 2020, a machine learning model of the Lancang–Mekong Basin was developed to reconstruct the basin’s hydrological processes, and identify the occurrence patterns and influencing mechanisms of water-related hazards. The results show that, against the background of climate change, the Lancang–Mekong Basin is affected by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. In particular, Rx1day, Rx5day, R10mm, and R95p (extreme precipitation indicators determined by the World Meteorological Organization’s Expert Group on Climate Change Monitoring and Extreme Climate Events) in the northwestern part of the Mekong River Basin show upward trends, with the average maximum daily rainfall increasing by 1.8 mm/year and the total extreme precipitation increasing by 18 mm/year on average. The risks of flood and drought disasters will continue to rise. The flood peak period is mainly concentrated in August and September, with the annual maximum flood peak ranging from 5600 to 8500 m³/s. The Stung Treng Station exhibits longer drought duration, greater severity, and higher peak intensity than the Chiang Saen and Pakse Stations. At the Pakse Station, climate change and hydropower development have altered the non-drought proportion by −12.50% and +15.90%, respectively. For the Chiang Saen Station, the fragmentation degree of the drought index time series under the baseline, naturalized, and hydropower development scenarios is 0.901, 1.16, and 0.775, respectively. These results indicate that hydropower development has effectively reduced the frequency of rapid drought–flood transitions within the basin, thereby alleviating pressure on drought management efforts. The regulatory role of the cascade reservoirs in the Lancang River can mitigate risks posed by climate change, weaken adverse effects, reduce flood peak flows, alleviate hydrological droughts in the dry season, and decrease flash drought–flood transitions in the basin. The research findings can enable basin managers to proactively address climate change, develop science-based technical pathways for hydropower dispatch, and formulate adaptive disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Full article

Extreme precipitation events severely impact agriculture, reducing yields and land use efficiency. The spatiotemporal distribution of Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV), the primary gaseous form of water, directly influences sustainable agricultural management. This study, through multi-source data fusion, employs methods including the Mann–Kendall test, sliding change-point detection, wavelet transform, pixel-scale trend estimation, and linear regression to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of global TCWV from 1959 to 2023 and its impacts on agricultural systems, surpassing the limitations of single-method approaches. Results reveal a global TCWV increase of 0.0168 kg/m²/year from 1959–2023, with a pivotal shift in 2002 amplifying changes, notably in tropical regions (e.g., Amazon, Congo Basins, Southeast Asia) where cumulative increases exceeded 2 kg/m² since 2000, while mid-to-high latitudes remained stable and polar regions showed minimal content. These dynamics escalate weather risks, impacting sustainable agricultural management with irrigation and crop adaptation. To enhance prediction accuracy, we propose a novel hybrid model combining wavelet transform with LSTM, TCN, and GRU deep learning models, substantially improving multidimensional feature extraction and nonstationary trend capture. Comparative analysis shows that WT-TCN performs the best (MAE = 0.170, R² = 0.953), demonstrating its potential for addressing climate change uncertainties. These findings provide valuable applications for precision agriculture, sustainable water resource management, and disaster early warning. Full article

Recent years have seen frequent heavy rainfall events in Japan, often linked to Baiu fronts and typhoons. These events are exacerbated by global warming, leading to an increased frequency and intensity. As floods represent a serious threat to sustainable urban development and community resilience, this study contributes to sustainability-focused risk reduction through integrated analysis. This study focuses on the 2 June 2023 heavy rain disaster in Toyohashi City, Japan, which caused extensive damage due to flooding from the Yagyu and Umeda Rivers. Using numerical models, this study accurately reproduces flooding patterns, revealing that high tides amplified the inundation area by 1.5 times at the Yagyu River. A resident questionnaire conducted in collaboration with Toyohashi City identifies key trends in evacuation behavior and disaster information usage. Traditional media such as TV remain dominant, but younger generations leverage electronic devices for disaster updates. These insights emphasize the need for targeted information dissemination and enhanced disaster preparedness strategies, including online materials and flexible training programs. The methods and findings presented in this study can inform local and regional governments in building adaptive disaster management policies, which contribute to a more sustainable society. Full article

Housing sustainability is a cornerstone element of sustainable economic and social development. This is particularly true for China, where high-rise residential buildings are the primary form of housing. In recent years, China has experienced frequent housing-related accidents, resulting in a significant loss of life and property damage. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing housing sustainability and provide a basis for the prevention and control of housing-related safety risks. This study has developed a housing sustainability evaluation indicator system comprising three primary indicators and 16 secondary indicators. This system is based on an analysis of the causes of over 500 typical housing accidents that occurred in China over the past 10 years, employing research methods such as literature reviews and expert consultations, and drawing on the analytical frameworks of risk management theory and system safety theory. Subsequently, the NK-SNA model, which significantly outperforms traditional models in terms of adaptive learning and optimization, as well as the explicit modeling of complex nonlinear relationships, was used to identify the key risk factors affecting housing sustainability. The empirical results indicate that the risk coupling value is correlated with the number of risk coupling factors; the greater the number of risk coupling factors, the larger the coupling value. Human misconduct is prone to forming two-factor risk coupling with housing, and the physical risk factors are prone to coupling with other factors. The environmental factors easily trigger ‘physical–environmental’ two-factor risk coupling. The key factors influencing housing sustainability are poor supervision, building facilities, the main structure, the housing height, foundation settlement, and natural disasters. On this basis, recommendations are made to make full use of modern information technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence to strengthen the supervision of housing safety and avoid multi-factor coupling, and to improve upon early warnings of natural disasters and the design of emergency response programs to control the coupling between physical and environmental factors. Full article

This study was conducted using Geographic Information Systems (GISs), Remote Sensing (RS) techniques, and the SLEUTH model based on Cellular Automata (CA) to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban growth in Sanliurfa Province and to create future projections. The model in question simulates urban sprawl by using Slope, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), Excluded Areas, urban areas, transportation, and hill shade layers as inputs. In addition, disaster risk areas and public policies that will affect the urbanization of the city were used as input layers. In the study, the spatial pattern of urbanization in Sanliurfa was determined by using Landsat satellite images of six different periods covering the years 1985–2025. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was applied within the scope of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Weighting was made for each parameter. Spatial analysis was performed by combining these values with data in raster format. The results show that the SLEUTH model successfully reflects past growth trends when calibrated at different spatial resolutions and can provide reliable predictions for the future. Thus, the proposed model can be used as an effective decision support tool in the evaluation of alternative urbanization scenarios in urban planning. The findings contribute to the sustainability of land management policies. Full article

The preparedness of healthcare workers for disaster situations depends on their technical skills, disaster knowledge, and psychosocial strength, including teamwork and emotional regulation. This study aims to assess disaster preparedness among healthcare professionals in primary healthcare centers (PHCs) in Alqurayat, Saudi Arabia, with a specific focus on evaluating technical competencies, psychosocial readiness, and predictive modeling of preparedness levels. A mixed-methods approach was employed, incorporating structured questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and observational data from disaster drills to evaluate the preparedness levels of 400 healthcare workers, including doctors, nurses, and administrative staff. The results showed that while knowledge (mean: 3.9) and skills (mean: 4.0) were generally moderate to high, notable gaps in overall preparedness remained. Importantly, 69.5% of participants reported enhanced readiness following simulation drills. Machine learning models, including Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks, were used to predict preparedness outcomes based on psychosocial variables such as emotional intelligence, teamwork, and stress management. Sentiment analysis and topic modeling of qualitative responses revealed key themes including communication barriers, psychological safety, and the need for ongoing training. The findings highlight the importance of integrating both technical competencies and psychosocial resilience into disaster management programs. This study contributes an innovative framework for evaluating preparedness and offers practical insights for policymakers, disaster planners, and health training institutions aiming to strengthen the sustainability and responsiveness of primary healthcare systems. Full article

This study explores a strategic framework for the sustainable development of Northern and Central Euboea (Evia), Greece, through the preservation and promotion of cultural and environmental assets. This research aims to redirect tourism flows from overdeveloped coastal zones to underutilized inland areas by leveraging local heritage and natural resources. The methodology was developed within the context of the AEI research project and combines bibliographic research, stakeholder consultation, GIS analysis, and socioeconomic assessment. Based on this framework, a series of thematic cultural routes and agritourism initiatives were designed to enhance regional attractiveness and resilience. The study proposes the utilization of ICT tools such as GIS-based mapping, a digital development platform, and an online tourism portal to document, manage, and promote key assets. The socioeconomic impact of the proposed interventions was evaluated using an input–output model, revealing that each EUR 1 million invested in the region is expected to generate EUR 650,000 in local GDP and create 14 new jobs. The results underscore the potential of alternative tourism to stimulate inclusive and sustainable growth, particularly in post-disaster rural regions. This integrated approach can serve as a model for other territories facing similar environmental, economic, and demographic challenges. Full article

Typo-morphology, as interpreted by the Italian School of Planning, provides an approach to investigate the relationship between built form and socio-cultural patterns in vernacular settlements. This study examines Harran, a heritage site in southeastern Türkiye known for its distinctive conic domed dwellings, to explore how typo-morphological analysis can inform culturally sensitive design and adaptive reuse approaches. Despite its historical significance and inclusion in the UNESCO tentative list, Harran faces insufficient documentation, fragmented governance, limited conservation, and increasing pressure from urbanization and natural disasters. Using multiple sources and fieldwork, the research reconstructs the morphological evolution of Harran through diachronic maps across compound, district, and town scales. Reflections from Alberobello, Italy, i.e., the sister city of Harran and a UNESCO-listed town with a similarly unique vernacular fabric, provide a comparative view to explore different heritage management approaches. Harran evolved through informal, culture-driven growth, whereas Alberobello followed a regulated path. While Alberobello benefits from planned development and institutional preservation, Harran faces partial abandonment and neglect. By positioning typo-morphology as a conceptual planning tool, this paper emphasizes the need for context-responsive, ethically grounded, and inclusive approaches to heritage planning and conservation. It argues for planning practices that are not only technically competent but also attuned to place-based knowledge, local identities, and the long-term sustainability of living heritage. Full article

Landslides are among the most destructive natural hazards in the Western Ghats region of Kerala, driven by complex interactions between geological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors. This study aims to generate a high-resolution Landslide Susceptibility Level Map (LSLM) using a machine learning (ML)-based Random Forest (RF) model integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A total of 231 historical landslide locations obtained from the Bhukosh portal were used as reference data. Eight predictive factors—Stream Order, Drainage Density, Slope, Aspect, Geology, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Moisture Stress Index (MSI)—were derived from remote sensing and ancillary datasets, preprocessed, and reclassified for model input. The RF model was trained and validated using a 50:50 split of landslide and non-landslide points, with variable importance values derived to weight each predictive factor of the raster layer in ArcGIS. The resulting Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) was reclassified into five susceptibility zones: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. Results indicate that approximately 17.82% of the study area falls under high to very high susceptibility, predominantly in the steep, weathered, and high rainfall zones of the Western Ghats. Validation using Area Under the Curve–Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) analysis yielded an accuracy of 0.890, demonstrating excellent model performance. The output LSM provides valuable spatial insights for planners, disaster managers, and policymakers, enabling targeted mitigation strategies and sustainable land-use planning in landslide-prone regions. Full article

In the context of emergency management, individual or household decisions to engage in risk mitigation behaviors are widely recognized to be influenced by a benefit–cost perception (perceived applied value (PAV) vs. perceived economic value (PEV), respectively). To better understand how such decisions are made, we conducted a mail survey (N = 211) of households living in the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota, in 2018. The survey is aimed at understanding the overall experience of households with flooding and their behavior toward advanced protective strategies against future floods by analyzing household PEV—their willingness to pay for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood Prediction system. This paper presents a mediation model in which various predictors (flood risk, experience, flood knowledge, flood risk perception, flood preparedness, flood mitigation, and flood insurance) are analyzed in relation to the PAV of the new Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood Predictions in the Red River of the North Basin, which, in turn, may shape the PEV of this product. We discuss the potential implications for both the emergency management research community and professionals regarding the application of advanced risk mitigation technologies to help protect and sustain communities across the country from floods and other natural disasters. This paper provides a greater understanding of the economic and social aspects of sustainability in the context of emergency management and community development. Full article

The increasing number of natural and man-made disasters registered at the global level is causing a significant amount of damage. This represents one of the main sustainability challenges at the global level. The collapse of the Twin Towers, Hurricane Katrina, and the nuclear accident at the Fukushima power plant are some of the most representative disaster events that occurred at the beginning of the third millennium. These relevant disasters need an enhanced level of preparedness to reduce the gaps between the plan and its implementation. Among these actions, training and exercises play a relevant role because they increase the capability of planners, managers, and the people involved. By focusing on the exposure risk component, the general objective of the research is to obtain quantitative evaluations of the exercise’s contribution to risk reduction through evacuation. The paper aims to analyze serious games using a set of methods and models that simulate an urban risk reduction plan. In particular, the paper proposes a transparent framework that merges transport risk analysis (TRA) and transport system models (TSMs), developing serious game activities with the support of emerging information and communication technologies (e-ICT). Transparency is possible through the explicitation of reproducible analytical formulations and linked parameters. The core framework of serious games is constituted by a set of models that reproduce the effects of players’ choices, including planned actions of decisionmakers and travel users’ choices. The framework constitutes the prototype of a digital platform in a “non-stressful” context aimed at providing more insights about the effects of planned actions. The proposed framework is characterized by transparency, a feature that allows other analysts and planners to reproduce each risk scenario, by applying TRA and relative effects simulations in territorial contexts by means of TSMs and parameters updated by e-ICT. A basic experimentation is performed by using a game, presenting the main results of a prototype test based on a reproducible exercise. The prototype experiment demonstrates the efficacy of increasing preparedness levels and reducing exposure by designing and implementing a serious game. The paper’s methodology and results are useful for policymakers, emergency managers, and the community for increasing the preparedness level. Full article

This study investigates the challenges and opportunities of balancing cultural preservation, tourism investment, and community resilience in historic Syrian cities during the post-war recovery period. The Syrian conflict has imposed considerable harm upon the nation’s cultural heritage, encompassing UNESCO World Heritage sites, thereby interrupting not only the urban infrastructure but also local economies and social networks. Utilizing a comprehensive methodology that includes a literature review, stakeholder interviews, and local surveys, this research investigates the potential for aligning cultural preservation with tourism investment to promote sustainable economic revitalization while simultaneously enhancing social cohesion and community resilience. The results underscore the significance of inclusive governance, participatory planning, and capacity enhancement to guarantee that post-conflict urban redevelopment fosters enduring environmental, social, and cultural sustainability. By framing the Syrian case within the broader context of global urban sustainability and resilience discourse, the study offers valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and heritage managers working in post-conflict or post-disaster environments worldwide. In the end, the study highlights that the revitalization of historic cities transcends being a simple technical or economic endeavor; it is a complex process of re-establishing identity, strengthening communities, and fostering sustainable, resilient urban futures. Full article

Under the context of global climate change, sea-level rise and frequent storm surge events pose significant challenges to coastal areas. Protecting coastlines from erosion, mitigating socio-economic losses, and maintaining ecosystem balance are critical for the sustainable development of coastal zones. The concept of “living shorelines” based on Nature-based Solutions (NbS) employs near-natural ecological restoration and protection measures. In low-energy coastal segments, natural materials are prioritized, while high-energy segments are supplemented with artificial structures. This approach not only enhances disaster resilience but also preserves coastal ecosystem stability and ecological functionality. This study constructs a coastal vitality evaluation system for Fujian Province, China, using the entropy weight method, integrating three dimensions: protective safety, ecological resilience, and economic vitality. Data from 2010 and 2020 were analyzed to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of coastal vitality. Results indicate that coastal vitality initially exhibited a spatial pattern of “low in the north, high in the center, and low in the south,” with vitality values ranging from 0.20 to 0.67 (higher values indicate stronger vitality). Over the past decade, ecological restoration projects have significantly improved coastal vitality, particularly in central and southern regions, where high-vitality segments increased markedly. Key factors influencing coastal vitality include water quality, cyclone intensity, biological shoreline length, and wetland area. NbS-aligned coastal management strategies and soft revetment practices have generated substantial ecological and economic benefits. To further enhance coastal vitality, region-specific approaches are recommended, emphasizing rational resource utilization, optimization of ecological and economic values, and the establishment of a sustainable evaluation framework. This study provides scientific insights for improving coastal protection capacity, ecological resilience, and economic potential. Full article

This study evaluates the current Spanish insurance framework for catastrophic flood risk, administered by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros (CCS), based on nationwide loss data reported by the CCS for the period 1996–2020. The analysis of historical claims data enables a clear differentiation between frequent, low-cost events and infrequent, high-impact catastrophes. While the CCS has fulfilled a critical role in post-disaster compensation, the findings highlight the parallel need for ex ante risk mitigation strategies. The study proposes a more efficient, two-tier risk coverage model. Events whose impacts can be managed through standard insurance mechanisms should be underwritten by private insurers using actuarially fair premiums. In contrast, events with catastrophic implications—due to their scale or financial impact—should be addressed through general solidarity mechanisms, centrally managed by the CCS. Such a risk segmentation would improve the financial sustainability of the system and create fiscal space for prevention-oriented incentives. The current design of the CCS scheme may generate moral hazard, as flood exposure is not explicitly priced into the premium structure. Empirical findings support a shift towards a more transparent, incentive-aligned model that combines collective risk sharing with individual risk responsibility—an essential balance for effective climate adaptation and long-term resilience. Full article

Urbanization is rapidly transforming cities, especially in the Global South, with Sub-Saharan Africa expected to see the fastest growth in the next 30 years. In South Africa’s Mopani District, this urban expansion has led to the growth of informal settlements, increasing disaster risks related to water, health, and fire. This study focuses on Giyani Local Municipality, examining disaster risks in its informal settlements and the factors influencing the implementation of spatial planning tools. Using a SWOT analysis combined with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study found that while the municipality has strong land use and disaster management policies, poor enforcement, lack of integration, and weak governance limit their effectiveness. Opportunities for improvement include securing grants from the National Government and Disaster Management Centre to support disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives. However, challenges such as land shortages and ecological degradation threaten sustainable planning. The findings provide important insights for policymakers, urban planners, and disaster management professionals. The SWOT-AHP approach helps in prioritizing resource allocation, identifying risk trends, and focusing on key areas for mitigation. Overall, the study supports efforts to enhance resilience and promote sustainable urban development in informal settlements through better spatial planning. Full article