Sign in to use this feature.

Years

Between: -

Subjects

remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline
remove_circle_outline

Journals

Article Types

Countries / Regions

Search Results (166)

Search Parameters:
Keywords = stochastic electricity prices

Order results
Result details
Results per page
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:
29 pages, 2664 KB  
Article
Optimization of Active Power Supply in an Electrical Distribution System Through the Optimal Integration of Renewable Energy Sources
by Irving J. Guevara and Alexander Aguila Téllez
Energies 2026, 19(2), 293; https://doi.org/10.3390/en19020293 - 6 Jan 2026
Viewed by 133
Abstract
The sustained growth of electricity demand and the global transition toward low-carbon energy systems have intensified the need for efficient, flexible, and reliable operation of electrical distribution networks. In this context, the coordinated integration of distributed renewable energy resources and demand-side flexibility has [...] Read more.
The sustained growth of electricity demand and the global transition toward low-carbon energy systems have intensified the need for efficient, flexible, and reliable operation of electrical distribution networks. In this context, the coordinated integration of distributed renewable energy resources and demand-side flexibility has emerged as a key strategy to improve technical performance and economic efficiency. This work proposes an integrated optimization framework for active power supply in a radial, distribution-like network through the optimal siting and sizing of photovoltaic (PV) units and wind turbines (WTs), combined with a real-time pricing (RTP)-based demand-side response (DSR) program. The problem is formulated using the branch-flow (DistFlow) model, which explicitly represents voltage drops, branch power flows, and thermal limits in radial feeders. A multiobjective function is defined to jointly minimize annual operating costs, active power losses, and voltage deviations, subject to network operating constraints and inverter capability limits. Uncertainty associated with solar irradiance, wind speed, ambient temperature, load demand, and electricity prices is captured through probabilistic modeling and scenario-based analysis. To solve the resulting nonlinear and constrained optimization problem, an Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (I-WaOA) is employed. The proposed algorithm enhances the classical Whale Optimization Algorithm by incorporating diversification and feasibility-oriented mechanisms, including Cauchy mutation, Fitness–Distance Balance (FDB), quasi-oppositional-based learning (QOBL), and quadratic penalty functions for constraint handling. These features promote robust convergence toward admissible solutions under stochastic operating conditions. The methodology is validated on a large-scale radialized network derived from the IEEE 118-bus benchmark, enabling a DistFlow-consistent assessment of technical and economic performance under realistic operating scenarios. The results demonstrate that the coordinated integration of PV, WT, and RTP-driven demand response leads to a reduction in feeder losses, an improvement in voltage profiles, and an enhanced voltage stability margin, as quantified through standard voltage deviation and fast voltage stability indices. Overall, the proposed framework provides a practical and scalable tool for supporting planning and operational decisions in modern power distribution networks with high renewable penetration and demand flexibility. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

26 pages, 1730 KB  
Article
Two-Stage Game-Based Charging Optimization for a Competitive EV Charging Station Considering Uncertain Distributed Generation and Charging Behavior
by Shaohua Han, Hongji Zhu, Jinian Pang, Xuan Ge, Fuju Zhou and Min Wang
Batteries 2026, 12(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/batteries12010016 - 1 Jan 2026
Viewed by 330
Abstract
The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has turned charging demand into a substantial load on the power grid. To satisfy the rapidly growing demand of EVs, the construction of charging infrastructure has received sustained attention in recent years. As charging stations become [...] Read more.
The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has turned charging demand into a substantial load on the power grid. To satisfy the rapidly growing demand of EVs, the construction of charging infrastructure has received sustained attention in recent years. As charging stations become more widespread, how to attract EV users in a competitive charging market while optimizing the internal charging process is the key to determine the charging station’s operational efficiency. This paper tackles this issue by presenting the following contributions. Firstly, a simulation method based on prospect theory is proposed to simulate EV users’ preferences in selecting charging stations. The selection behavior of EV users is simulated by establishing coupling relationship among the transportation network, power grid, and charging network as well as the model of users’ preference. Secondly, a two-stage joint stochastic optimization model for a charging station is developed, which considers both charging pricing and energy control. At the first stage, a Stackelberg game is employed to determine the day-ahead optimal charging price in a competitive market. At the second stage, real-time stochastic charging control is applied to maximize the operational profit of the charging station considering renewable energy integration. Finally, a scenario-based Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) approach is introduced in the first stage for optimal pricing learning, while a simulation-based Rollout method is applied in the second stage to update the real-time energy control strategy based on the latest pricing. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve as large as 33% profit improvement by comparing with the competitive charging stations considering 1000 EV integration. Full article
Show Figures

Graphical abstract

26 pages, 1740 KB  
Article
Diffusion Neural Learning for Market Power Risk Assessment in the Electricity Spot Market
by Peng Ji, Li Tao, Ying Xue and Liang Feng
Energies 2025, 18(24), 6542; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18246542 - 14 Dec 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 365
Abstract
Market power remains a persistent challenge in liberalized electricity spot markets, where generators can manipulate bids to distort prices and extract rents. Traditional monitoring approaches—such as structural indices or simulation-based models—offer partial insights but fail to capture the nonlinear, spatially correlated propagation of [...] Read more.
Market power remains a persistent challenge in liberalized electricity spot markets, where generators can manipulate bids to distort prices and extract rents. Traditional monitoring approaches—such as structural indices or simulation-based models—offer partial insights but fail to capture the nonlinear, spatially correlated propagation of strategic behavior across transmission-constrained networks. This paper develops a diffusion neural learning framework for market power risk assessment that integrates welfare optimization, nodal pricing dynamics, and graph-based deep learning. Specifically, a Graph Diffusion Network (GDN) is trained on simulated spot market scenarios to learn how localized strategic deviations spread through the network, distort locational marginal prices, and alter system welfare. The modeling framework combines a system-wide welfare maximization objective with multi-constraint market clearing, while the GDN embeds network topology into predictive learning. Results from a case study on an IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that the proposed method achieves an R2 of 0.91 in predicting market power indices, outperforming multilayer perceptrons, recurrent neural networks, and Transformer baselines. Welfare analysis reveals that distributionally robust optimization safeguards up to 3.3 million USD in adverse scenarios compared with baseline stochastic approaches. Further, congestion mapping highlights that strategic bidding concentrates distortions at specific nodes, amplifying rents by up to 40 percent. The proposed approach thus offers both predictive accuracy and interpretability, enabling regulators to detect emerging risks and design targeted mitigation strategies. Overall, this work establishes diffusion-based learning as a novel and effective paradigm for electricity market power assessment under high uncertainty and renewable penetration. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

28 pages, 3992 KB  
Article
Stochastic Optimization of Real-Time Dynamic Pricing for Microgrids with Renewable Energy and Demand Response
by Edwin García, Milton Ruiz and Alexander Aguila
Energies 2025, 18(24), 6484; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18246484 - 11 Dec 2025
Viewed by 505
Abstract
This paper presents a comprehensive framework for real-time energy management in microgrids integrating distributed renewable energy sources and demand response (DR) programs. To address the inherent uncertainties in key operational variables—such as load demand, wind speed, solar irradiance, and electricity market prices—this study [...] Read more.
This paper presents a comprehensive framework for real-time energy management in microgrids integrating distributed renewable energy sources and demand response (DR) programs. To address the inherent uncertainties in key operational variables—such as load demand, wind speed, solar irradiance, and electricity market prices—this study employs a probabilistic modeling approach. A two-stage stochastic optimization method, combining mixed-integer linear programming and optimal power flow (OPF), is developed to minimize operational costs while ensuring efficient system operation. Real-time dynamic pricing mechanisms are incorporated to incentivize consumer load shifting and promote energy-efficient consumption patterns. Three microgrid scenarios are analyzed using one year of real historical data: (i) a grid-connected microgrid without DR, (ii) a grid-connected microgrid with 10% and 20% DR-based load shifting, and (iii) an islanded microgrid operating under incentive-based DR contracts. Results demonstrate that incorporating DR strategies significantly reduces both operating costs and reliance on grid imports, especially during peak demand periods. The islanded scenario, while autonomous, incurs higher costs and highlights the challenges of self-sufficiency under uncertainty. Overall, the proposed model illustrates how the integration of real-time pricing with stochastic optimization enhances the flexibility, resilience, and cost-effectiveness of smart microgrid operations, offering actionable insights for the development of future grid-interactive energy systems. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 2259 KB  
Article
Flexibility Incentive Market Mechanism for Combined Frequency Regulation and Electricity Markets for the Power System with Distributed Energy Resources Aggregators via Modified Leiden Algorithm
by Xiaoyan Hu, Zesen Li, Jing Shi, Bingjie Li, Yi Ge and Hu Li
Energies 2025, 18(23), 6231; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18236231 - 27 Nov 2025
Viewed by 493
Abstract
Distributed energy resources provide local power as a supplement on the customer side. Recent rapid development of the distributed energy source enhances the clear energy production at the terminal of the power system. Whereas the small capacity of a single distributed energy source [...] Read more.
Distributed energy resources provide local power as a supplement on the customer side. Recent rapid development of the distributed energy source enhances the clear energy production at the terminal of the power system. Whereas the small capacity of a single distributed energy source and the scaling of numbers pose difficulties for market design and clearance. In addition, the stochastic and quickly varying output power of the amount of (distributed) renewable energy sources increases the necessity for flexible regulation capacities. In response to the above issues, this paper develops a modified Leiden algorithm to aggregate distributed energy sources with similar regulation properties and connectives, avoiding complex power allocation strategies within the intra-aggregator and ensuring ordered power flow among inter-aggregators. Then, a bi-level market mechanism is proposed to highlight the regulation contributions of both distributed aggregators and conventional energy sources. The upper-level model optimizes the price of combined frequency regulation and electricity markets. The lower-level model regulates the output power of the aggregators and conventional energy sources. Furthermore, the modification of the bi-level model is proposed via the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker condition to ensure its solvability. The proposed market mechanism and the aggregating method are verified using a modified IEEE 30-bus system with IEEE 123-node test feeders and terminal-side energy resources. The results reflect the incentive impacts of the designed market mechanism and the effectiveness of the aggregating algorithm. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

29 pages, 827 KB  
Article
Two-Stage Optimization of Virtual Power Plant Operation Considering Substantial Quantity of EVs Participation Using Reinforcement Learning and Gradient-Based Programming
by Rong Zhu, Jiwen Qi, Jiatong Wang and Li Li
Energies 2025, 18(22), 5898; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18225898 - 10 Nov 2025
Viewed by 586
Abstract
Modern electrical vehicles (EVs) are equipped with sizable batteries that possess significant potential as energy prosumers. EVs are poised to be transformative assets and pivotal contributors to the virtual power plant (VPP), enhancing the performance and profitability of VPPs. The number of household [...] Read more.
Modern electrical vehicles (EVs) are equipped with sizable batteries that possess significant potential as energy prosumers. EVs are poised to be transformative assets and pivotal contributors to the virtual power plant (VPP), enhancing the performance and profitability of VPPs. The number of household EVs is increasing yearly, and this poses new challenges to the optimization of VPP operations. The computational cost increases exponentially as the number of decision variables rises with the increasing participation of EVs. This paper explores the role of a large number of EVs as prosumers, interacting with a VPP consisting of a photovoltaic system and battery energy storage system. To accommodate the large quantity of EVs in the modeling, this research adopts the decentralized control structure. It optimizes EV operations by regulating their charging and discharging behavior in response to pricing signals from the VPP. A two-stage optimization framework is proposed for VPP-EV operation using a reinforcement algorithm and gradient-based programming. Action masking for reinforcement learning is explored to eliminate invalid actions, reducing ineffective exploration, thereby accelerating the convergence of the algorithm. The proposed approach is capable of handling a substantial number of EVs and addressing the stochastic characteristics of EV charging and discharging behaviors. Simulation results demonstrate that the VPP-EV operation optimization increases the revenue of the VPP and significantly reduces the electricity costs for EV owners. Through the optimization of EV operations, the charging cost of 1000 EVs participating in the V2G services is reduced by 26.38% compared to those that opt out of the scheme, and VPP revenue increases by 27.83% accordingly. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section E: Electric Vehicles)
Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 2963 KB  
Article
Investment Opportunities for Individual Energy Supply Systems: A UK Household Study
by Julien Garcia Arenas, Mathieu Patin, Patrick Hendrick, Sylvie Bégot, Frédéric Gustin and Valérie Lepiller
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5803; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215803 - 4 Nov 2025
Viewed by 402
Abstract
The current evolution of the energy context and progress in sustainable energy technologies are enabling the development of new energy supply systems for the residential sector. However, the techno-economic assessment of such energy systems is not straightforward and depends, among others, on the [...] Read more.
The current evolution of the energy context and progress in sustainable energy technologies are enabling the development of new energy supply systems for the residential sector. However, the techno-economic assessment of such energy systems is not straightforward and depends, among others, on the building type, its thermal insulation rate, and user patterns, as well as on the climatic conditions or energy and technology prices. This study therefore aims to develop an investment model for a typical UK household energy system that is applied to a diversity of scenarios to highlight the sensibility of the output results over stochastic input data such as electricity and heat demands, ambient temperature, and global solar irradiation. This dwelling diversity dataset is generated using a thermal–electrical demand model that uses stochastic techniques to model uncertainty. This contribution concludes with a discussion on how end-users can effectively take part in the energy transition while minimizing their energy bill and potentially generate long-term revenues. The main results show stable economic performance, with capital expenditure (CAPEX) ranging from GBP 15,400 to GBP 17,000 and NPV from GBP 21,000 to GBP 26,000 over 2000 individual scenarios. This study also confirms the leveraging effect of policy instruments, such as subsidies, in shifting the optimal system design towards higher shares of renewable and storage technologies, further reducing the reliance on fossil fuels and the impact on distribution systems. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

24 pages, 1621 KB  
Article
Coordinating Day-Ahead and Intraday Scheduling for Bidirectional Charging of Fleet EVs
by Shiwei Shen, Syed Irtaza Haider, Razan Habeeb and Frank H. P. Fitzek
Automation 2025, 6(4), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/automation6040064 - 3 Nov 2025
Viewed by 675
Abstract
The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and photovoltaic (PV) generation creates substantial power peaks that strain local electrical infrastructure. Coordinated bidirectional charging can mitigate these challenges while delivering benefits such as lower costs, improved PV utilization, and reduced emissions. This paper develops [...] Read more.
The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and photovoltaic (PV) generation creates substantial power peaks that strain local electrical infrastructure. Coordinated bidirectional charging can mitigate these challenges while delivering benefits such as lower costs, improved PV utilization, and reduced emissions. This paper develops a framework for fleet charging that combines station assignment with a two-stage scheduling approach. A heuristic assignment method allocates EVs to uni- and bidirectional charging stations, ensuring efficient use of limited infrastructure. Building on these assignments, charging power is optimized in two stages: a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) generates day-ahead schedules from forecasts, while an intraday heuristic-based MILP adapts them to unplanned arrivals and forecast errors through lightweight re-optimization. A Python -based simulator is developed to evaluate the framework under stochastic PV, load, price, and EV conditions. Results show that the approach reduces costs and emissions compared to alternative methods, improves the utilization of bidirectional infrastructure, scales efficiently to large fleets, and remains robust under significant uncertainty, highlighting its potential for practical deployment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Smart Transportation and Autonomous Vehicles)
Show Figures

Figure 1

31 pages, 4978 KB  
Article
Multi-Scale Predictive Modeling of RTPV Penetration in EU Urban Contexts and Energy Storage Optimization
by Vasileios Kapsalis, Georgios Mitsopoulos, Dimitrios Stamatakis and Athanasios I. Tolis
Energies 2025, 18(21), 5715; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215715 - 30 Oct 2025
Viewed by 421
Abstract
Prosumer energy storage behavior alongside national rooftop photovoltaics (RTPV) penetration metrics is essential for decarbonization pathways in buildings. A research gap persists in quantitatively assessing storage strategies under varying regulatory frameworks that integrate both technical and financial dimensions while accounting for behavioral heterogeneity [...] Read more.
Prosumer energy storage behavior alongside national rooftop photovoltaics (RTPV) penetration metrics is essential for decarbonization pathways in buildings. A research gap persists in quantitatively assessing storage strategies under varying regulatory frameworks that integrate both technical and financial dimensions while accounting for behavioral heterogeneity and policy feedback. This study introduces a novel degradation-aware, feedback-preserving framework that optimizes behind-the-meter storage design and operation, enabling realistic modeling of prosumer responses on large-scale RTPV adoption scenarios. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) models applied for the RTPV penetration rates projections in European urban contexts. The increasing rates in the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy respond to second-order regression behavior, with the former to emit signals of saturation and the latter to perform mixed anelastic and reverse elastic curves of elasticities. Accordingly, Germany, France, the United Kingdom (UK), and Greece remain in an inelastic area by 2030. The building RTPV energy storage arbitrage formulation is treated as a linear programming (LP) problem using a convex and piecewise linear cost function, a Model Predictive Control (MPC), Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) statistical forecasts and rolling horizon in order to address the uncertainty of the load and the ratio κ of the sold to purchased electricity price. Weekly arbitrage gains may drop by up to 9.1% due to stochasticity, with maximized gains achieved at battery capacities between 1C and 2C. The weekly gain per cycle performs elastic, anelastic, and reverse behavior of the prosumer across the range of κ values responding to different regulatory mechanisms of pricing. The variability of economic incentives suggests the necessity of flexible energy management strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Insights into Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Buildings)
Show Figures

Figure 1

27 pages, 1586 KB  
Review
A Review on Risk-Averse Bidding Strategies for Virtual Power Plants with Uncertainties: Resources, Technologies, and Future Pathways
by Dongliang Xiao
Technologies 2025, 13(11), 488; https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies13110488 - 28 Oct 2025
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1707
Abstract
The global energy transition, characterized by the proliferation of intermittent renewables and the evolution of electricity markets, has positioned virtual power plants (VPPs) as crucial aggregators of distributed energy resources. However, their participation in competitive markets is fraught with multifaceted uncertainties stemming from [...] Read more.
The global energy transition, characterized by the proliferation of intermittent renewables and the evolution of electricity markets, has positioned virtual power plants (VPPs) as crucial aggregators of distributed energy resources. However, their participation in competitive markets is fraught with multifaceted uncertainties stemming from price volatility, renewable generation intermittency, and unpredictable prosumer behavior, which necessitate sophisticated, risk-averse bidding strategies to ensure financial viability. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of the state-of-the-art in risk-averse bidding for VPPs. It first establishes a resource-centric taxonomy, categorizing VPPs into four primary archetypes: DER-driven, demand response-oriented, electric vehicle-integrated, and multi-energy systems. The paper then delivers a comparative assessment of different optimization techniques—from stochastic programming with conditional value-at-risk and robust optimization to emerging paradigms such as distributionally robust optimization, game theory, and artificial intelligence. It critically evaluates their application contexts and effectiveness in mitigating specific risks across diverse market types. Finally, the review synthesizes these insights to identify persistent challenges—including computational bottlenecks, data privacy, and a lack of standardization—and outlines a forward-looking research agenda. This agenda emphasizes the development of hybrid AI–physical models, interoperability standards, multi-domain risk modeling, and collaborative VPP ecosystems to advance the field towards a resilient and decarbonized energy future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Technology)
Show Figures

Figure 1

46 pages, 1768 KB  
Article
Healing Intelligence: A Bio-Inspired Metaheuristic Optimization Method Using Recovery Dynamics
by Vasileios Charilogis and Ioannis G. Tsoulos
Future Internet 2025, 17(10), 441; https://doi.org/10.3390/fi17100441 - 27 Sep 2025
Viewed by 510
Abstract
BioHealing Optimization (BHO) is a bio-inspired metaheuristic that operationalizes the injury–recovery paradigm through an iterative loop of recombination, stochastic injury, and guided healing. The algorithm is further enhanced by adaptive mechanisms, including scar map, hot-dimension focusing, RAGE/hyper-RAGE bursts (Rapid Aggressive Global Exploration), and [...] Read more.
BioHealing Optimization (BHO) is a bio-inspired metaheuristic that operationalizes the injury–recovery paradigm through an iterative loop of recombination, stochastic injury, and guided healing. The algorithm is further enhanced by adaptive mechanisms, including scar map, hot-dimension focusing, RAGE/hyper-RAGE bursts (Rapid Aggressive Global Exploration), and healing-rate modulation, enabling a dynamic balance between exploration and exploitation. Across 17 benchmark problems with 30 runs, each under a fixed budget of 1.5·105 function evaluations, BHO achieves the lowest overall rank in both the “best-of-runs” (47) and the “mean-of-runs” (48), giving an overall rank sum of 95 and an average rank of 2.794. Representative first-place results include Frequency-Modulated Sound Waves, the Lennard–Jones potential, and Electricity Transmission Pricing. In contrast to prior healing-inspired optimizers such as Wound Healing Optimization (WHO) and Synergistic Fibroblast Optimization (SFO), BHO uniquely integrates (i) an explicit tri-phasic architecture (DE/best/1/bin recombination → Gaussian/Lévy injury → guided healing), (ii) per-dimension stateful adaptation (scar map, hot-dims), and (iii) stagnation-triggered bursts (RAGE/hyper-RAGE). These features provide a principled exploration–exploitation separation that is absent in WHO/SFO. Full article
Show Figures

Graphical abstract

30 pages, 1703 KB  
Article
A Three-Stage Stochastic–Robust Scheduling for Oxy-Fuel Combustion Capture Involved Virtual Power Plants Considering Source–Load Uncertainties and Carbon Trading
by Jiahong Wang, Xintuan Wang and Bingkang Li
Sustainability 2025, 17(16), 7354; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167354 - 14 Aug 2025
Viewed by 735
Abstract
Driven by the “dual carbon” goal, virtual power plants (VPPs) are the core vehicle for integrating distributed energy resources, but the multiple uncertainties in wind power, electricity/heat load, and electricity price, coupled with the impact of carbon-trading cost, make it difficult for traditional [...] Read more.
Driven by the “dual carbon” goal, virtual power plants (VPPs) are the core vehicle for integrating distributed energy resources, but the multiple uncertainties in wind power, electricity/heat load, and electricity price, coupled with the impact of carbon-trading cost, make it difficult for traditional scheduling methods to balance the robustness and economy of VPPs. Therefore, this paper proposes an oxy-fuel combustion capture (OCC)-VPP architecture, integrating an OCC unit to improve the energy efficiency of the system through the “electricity-oxygen-carbon” cycle. Ten typical scenarios are generated by Latin hypercube sampling and K-means clustering to describe the uncertainties of source and load probability distribution, combined with the polyhedral uncertainty set to delineate the boundary of source and load fluctuations, and the stepped carbon-trading mechanism is introduced to quantify the cost of carbon emission. Then, a three-stage stochastic–robust scheduling model is constructed. The simulation based on the arithmetic example of OCC-VPP in North China shows that (1) OCC-VPP significantly improves the economy through the synergy of electric–hydrogen production and methanation (52% of hydrogen is supplied with heat and 41% is methanated), and the cost of carbon sequestration increases with the prediction error, but the carbon benefit of stepped carbon trading is stabilized at the base price of 320 DKK/ton; (2) when the uncertainty is increased from 0 to 18, the total cost rises by 45%, and the cost of purchased gas increases by the largest amount, and the cost of energy abandonment increases only by 299.6 DKK, which highlights the smoothing effect of energy storage; (3) the proposed model improves the solution speed by 70% compared with stochastic optimization, and reduces cost by 4.0% compared with robust optimization, which balances economy and robustness efficiently. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

29 pages, 1531 KB  
Article
Dynamic Tariff Adjustment for Electric Vehicle Charging in Renewable-Rich Smart Grids: A Multi-Factor Optimization Approach to Load Balancing and Cost Efficiency
by Dawei Wang, Xi Chen, Xiulan Liu, Yongda Li, Zhengguo Piao and Haoxuan Li
Energies 2025, 18(16), 4283; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18164283 - 12 Aug 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1625
Abstract
The widespread deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) has introduced substantial challenges to electricity pricing, grid stability, and renewable energy integration. This paper proposes a real-time pricing optimization framework for large-scale EV charging networks incorporating renewable intermittency, demand elasticity, and infrastructure constraints within a [...] Read more.
The widespread deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) has introduced substantial challenges to electricity pricing, grid stability, and renewable energy integration. This paper proposes a real-time pricing optimization framework for large-scale EV charging networks incorporating renewable intermittency, demand elasticity, and infrastructure constraints within a high-dimensional optimization model. The core objective is to dynamically determine spatiotemporal electricity prices that simultaneously reduce system peak load, improve renewable energy utilization, and minimize user charging costs. A rigorous mathematical formulation is developed integrating over 40 system-level constraints, including power balance, transmission capacity, renewable curtailment, carbon targets, voltage regulation, demand-side flexibility, social participation, and cyber resilience. Real-time electricity prices are treated as dynamic decision variables influenced by charging station utilization, elasticity response curves, and the marginal cost of renewable and grid-supplied electricity. The problem is solved over 96 time intervals using a hybrid solution approach, with benchmark comparisons against mixed-integer programming (MILP) and deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based baselines. A comprehensive case study is conducted on a 500-station EV charging network serving 10,000 vehicles integrated with a modified IEEE 118-bus grid model and 800 MW of variable renewable energy. Historical charging data with ±12% stochastic demand variation and real-world solar and wind profiles are used to simulate realistic operational conditions. Results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves a 23.4% average peak load reduction per station, a 17.9% improvement in renewable energy utilization, and user cost savings of up to 30% compared to baseline flat-rate pricing. Utilization imbalances across the network are reduced, with congestion mitigation observed at over 90% of high-traffic stations. The real-time pricing model successfully aligns low-price windows with high-renewable periods and off-peak hours, achieving time-synchronized load shifting and system-wide flexibility. Visual analytics including high-resolution 3D surface plots and disaggregated bar charts reveal structured patterns in demand–price interactions, confirming the model’s ability to generate smooth, non-disruptive pricing trajectories. The results underscore the viability of advanced optimization-based pricing strategies for scalable, clean, and responsive EV charging infrastructure management in renewable-rich grid environments. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

17 pages, 2690 KB  
Article
Impact Analysis of Price Cap on Bidding Strategies of VPP Considering Imbalance Penalty Structures
by Youngkook Song, Yongtae Yoon and Younggyu Jin
Energies 2025, 18(15), 3927; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18153927 - 23 Jul 2025
Viewed by 882
Abstract
Virtual power plants (VPPs) enable the efficient participation of distributed renewable energy resources in electricity markets by aggregating them. However, the profitability of VPPs is challenged by market volatility and regulatory constraints, such as price caps and imbalance penalties. This study examines the [...] Read more.
Virtual power plants (VPPs) enable the efficient participation of distributed renewable energy resources in electricity markets by aggregating them. However, the profitability of VPPs is challenged by market volatility and regulatory constraints, such as price caps and imbalance penalties. This study examines the joint impact of varying price cap levels and imbalance penalty structures on the bidding strategies and revenues of VPPs. A stochastic optimization model was developed, where a three-stage scenario tree was utilized to capture the uncertainty in electricity prices and renewable generation output. Simulations were performed under various market conditions using real-world price and generation data from the Korean electricity market. The analysis reveals that higher price cap coefficients lead to greater revenue and more segmented bidding strategies, especially under asymmetric penalty structures. Segment-wise analysis of bid price–quantity pairs shows that over-bidding is preferred under upward-only penalty schemes, while under-bidding is preferred under downward-only ones. Notably, revenue improvement tapers off beyond a price cap coefficient of 0.8, which indicates that there exists an optimal threshold for regulatory design. The findings of this study suggest the need for coordination between price caps and imbalance penalties to maintain market efficiency while supporting renewable energy integration. The proposed framework also offers practical insights for market operators and policymakers seeking to balance profitability, adaptability, and stability in VPP-integrated electricity markets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section C: Energy Economics and Policy)
Show Figures

Figure 1

32 pages, 4535 KB  
Article
A Novel Stochastic Copula Model for the Texas Energy Market
by Sudeesha Warunasinghe and Anatoliy Swishchuk
Risks 2025, 13(7), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13070137 - 16 Jul 2025
Viewed by 1839
Abstract
The simulation of wind power, electricity load, and natural gas prices will allow commodity traders to see the future movement of prices in a more probabilistic manner. The ability to observe possible paths for wind power, electricity load, and natural gas prices enables [...] Read more.
The simulation of wind power, electricity load, and natural gas prices will allow commodity traders to see the future movement of prices in a more probabilistic manner. The ability to observe possible paths for wind power, electricity load, and natural gas prices enables traders to obtain valuable insights for placing their trades on electricity prices. Since the above processes involve a seasonality factor, the seasonality component was modeled using a truncated Fourier series, and the random component was modeled using stochastic differential equations (SDE). It is evident from the literature that all the above processes are mean-reverting processes; thus, three mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes were considered the model for wind power, the electricity load, and natural gas prices. Industry experts believe there is a correlation between wind power, the electricity load, and natural gas prices. For example, when wind power is higher and the electricity load is lower, natural gas prices are relatively low. The novelty of this study is the incorporation of the correlation structure between processes into the mean-reverting OU process using a copula function. Thus, the study utilized a vine copula and integrated it into the simulation. The study was conducted for the Texas energy market and used daily time scales for the simulations, and it was able to conclude that the proposed novel mean-reverting OU process outperforms the classical mean-reverting process in the case of wind power and the electricity load. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Stochastic Modeling and Computational Statistics in Finance)
Show Figures

Figure 1

Back to TopTop