Search Results (261)

Global climate change is increasing extreme rainfall events, and severe floods are becoming more frequent. Flood storage and detention basins (FSDBs) are an important part of the flood control system in China. They play a key role in regional flood emergency response and regulation. Therefore, accurate simulation of flood evolution after the activation of FSDBs is urgently needed. This study proposes a high-accuracy flood evolution simulation method that combines terrain clustering and physical propagation constraints. We first build a 2 m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) using GF-7 stereo imagery and laser altimetry data. We then introduce an improved superpixel segmentation algorithm (TSLIC). This method reduces the number of computational units while preserving key micro-topographic features. It groups high-resolution grids into terrain units with similar elevation characteristics and continuous spatial structure. Based on these terrain units, we develop a flood evolution model called RS-CFPM. The model combines flow velocity estimated from the Manning equation with flood propagation speed derived from radar remote sensing. It uses a water balance framework and includes a propagation time delay constraint. This design helps overcome the limitation of traditional static inundation methods that ignore flood travel time. We apply the proposed method to simulate the flood inundation process during the “23·7” extreme basin-scale flood event in the Haihe River Basin. Comparison with multi-temporal radar observations shows that the errors of simulated water level and inundation extent in the Dongdian FSDB are both within 10%. The computational efficiency is also improved by more than 60% compared with traditional methods. This study provides a new approach for rapid and accurate simulation of flood inundation processes in FSDBs under emergency conditions. The method can support flood emergency operation and decision-making. Full article

In this paper, the authors developed a data-driven model to classify radar measurements into precipitation (P) and non-precipitation (NP) echoes using the Random Forest machine learning algorithm. Dual-polarimetric radar variables and their local variability exhibit distinctive characteristics between P and NP echoes. The authors found that using larger search window sizes generally improves classification accuracy, though it involves a trade-off: while it helps eliminate small clusters of NP echoes, it may also suppress weak precipitation signals near storm edges. Incorporating multiscale local variability estimates computed with varying window sizes further enhances classification performance by capturing spatial-scale-dependent features characteristic of P and NP echoes. The main model uses radar variables obtained from a single scan and demonstrates consistent performance across all distances from the radar. This consistency allows reliable use of the model out to 230 km—the maximum range at which dual-polarimetric variables are used for rainfall estimation from NEXRAD radars—without significant degradation in accuracy due to range effects. Supplementing the model with independent information from GOES-16 infrared channel products further improves classification by helping to eliminate localized NP echoes remaining after the main model, particularly those caused by wind turbines that mimic precipitation in dual-polarimetric signatures. This is based on the tendency of water vapor and/or raindrops to absorb terrestrial radiation, thereby lowering brightness temperatures. A practical challenge remains near the radar, where the sampling volume is small and signal processing (e.g., sidelobe impact and ground clutter suppression) can distort radar measurements. The under-detection of precipitation in these regions is likely due to such corrupted data. This issue may be mitigated by adopting a hybrid scan strategy—such as a Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator (CAPPI)—specifically for regions close to the radar. Full article

This study, conducted in the framework of the LIAISE field campaign in NE Spain (May–September 2021), investigates how near-surface relative humidity influences early-stage rainfall characteristics when precipitation is most affected by temperature and relative humidity before rainfall onset. Two instrumented sites were examined, using disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar (MRR), C-band weather radar data, and automatic weather stations. Rainfall events were first classified as stratiform or convective using weather radar data based on a texture analysis of the reflectivity field. Then, only stratiform events were selected and further classified into dry and moist categories according to the upper and lower terciles of near-surface (2 m) relative humidity at the rainfall onset (dry < 54%; moist > 72%). Results show that during dry events, the time delay between the detection of precipitation at ~750 m above ground level (AGL) (by MRR or C-band radar) and its arrival at the surface (measured by the disdrometer) is consistently longer than during moist events, indicating possible evaporation of raindrops during their descent. Surface drop size distributions also differ: dry cases have generally fewer small drops (with diameters < 0.8 mm) but relatively more large drops, leading to higher radar reflectivity values despite similar surface rainfall amounts. However, reflectivity observed aloft by C-band radar and MRR does not present the dependence on relative humidity found at ground level. Findings reported here increase our understanding of the impact of low-level conditions on precipitation characteristics and microphysical associated processes and may contribute to improve correction schemes in operational weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates. Full article

It is known that rainfall leads to a reduction in driving speed. However, the results of various studies are inconsistent regarding the amount of speed reduction. In this study, we combine high-resolution radar-based rainfall estimates for three days with heavy rainfall with driving speeds derived from floating car data on 1.5 million road sections in Germany. Using linear regression models, we investigate the functional relationship between rainfall and driving speeds depending on road section characteristics like speed limit and number of lanes. We find that the speed reduction due to rainfall is higher at road section with higher speed limits and on multi-lane roads. On highway road section with speed limits of 130 km/h, for example, heavy rainfall of more than 8 L/m² in five minutes leads to an average speed reduction of more than 30%, although estimates at very high rainfall intensities are subject to increased uncertainty due to data sparsity. Cross-validation shows that including rainfall as a predictor for driving speed reduces mean squared errors by up 14% in general and up to 50% in heavy rainfall conditions. Furthermore, rainfall as a continuous variable should be preferred over categorical variables for a parsimonious model. Our results demonstrate that parsimonious, interpretable models combining radar rainfall data with floating car data can capture systematic rainfall-related speed reductions across a wide range of road types. However, the analysis should be interpreted strictly as a descriptive, event-specific study. It does not support generalizable inference across time, seasons, or broader traffic conditions. To make this approach suitable for operational applications such as real-time speed prediction, route planning, and traffic management, larger multi-event datasets and the consideration of effects like weekday structure and diurnal demand patterns are required to better constrain effects under heavy rainfall conditions. Full article

The accurate retrieval of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) is a longstanding objective in meteorology because it underpins reliable quantitative precipitation estimation. Among remote sensors, weather radars are the primary tool for mapping DSD over wide areas, and phased-array systems in particular have demonstrated unique advantages owing to their high temporal and spatial resolution together with agile beam steering. Exploiting the underused high-resolution capability of an X-band phased-array radar, this study induced a Rainfall Regression Model (RRM). The RRM assumes a normalized gamma DSD model and retrieves its three parameters. It was then applied to a rain event influenced by the remnant circulation of Typhoon Haikui that affected Guangzhou on 8 September 2023. First, collocated disdrometer observations and T-matrix scattering simulations are used to build polynomial regressions between DSD parameters (D₀, N_w, μ) and the polarimetric variables. Validation against independent disdrometer samples yields Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for D₀ and 0.91 for log₁₀N_w. The RRM is then applied to the full volumetric radar data. Horizontal maps reveal that the surface elevation angle consistently exhibited the largest standard deviation for all three parameters. A vertical profile analysis shows that large-drop cores (D₀ > 2 mm) can reside above 2 km and that iso-value contours tilt rather than align vertically, implying an appreciable horizontal drift of raindrops within the complex remnant typhoon–monsoon wind field. By demonstrating the ability of X-band phased-array radar to resolve the three-dimensional microphysical structure of remnant typhoon precipitation, this study advances our understanding of the vertical characteristics of raindrops and provides high-resolution DSD information that can be directly ingested into severe weather monitoring and nowcasting systems. Full article

Accurate rainfall monitoring is essential for mitigating hydrometeorological disasters and understanding hydrological changes under climate change. This study presents a deep learning-based rainfall estimation framework using multispectral GEO-KOMPSAT-2A (GK2A) satellite imagery. The analysis primarily focuses on daytime observations to take advantage of visible channel information, which provides richer representations of cloud characteristics during daylight conditions. The core model, Model-HSP, is built on the Pix2PixCC architecture and trained with Hybrid Surface Precipitation (HSP) data from weather radar. To further enhance accuracy, an ensemble model (Model-ENS) integrates the outputs of Model-HSP and a radar based Model-CMX, leveraging their complementary strengths for improved generalization, robustness, and stability across rainfall regimes. Performance was evaluated over two periods—a one year period from May 2023 to April 2024 and the August 2023 monsoon season—at 2 km and 4 km spatial resolutions, using RMSE and CC as quantitative metrics. Case analyses confirmed the superior capability of Model-ENS in capturing rainfall distribution, intensity, and temporal evolution across diverse weather conditions. These findings show that deep learning greatly enhances GEO satellite rainfall estimation, enabling real-time, high-resolution monitoring even in radar sparse or limited coverage regions, and offering strong potential for global and regional hydrometeorological and climate research applications. Full article

Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from radar reflectivity is fundamental for weather nowcasting and water resource management. Conventional Z-R relationship formulas, derived from Rayleigh scattering theory, rely heavily on empirical parameter fitting, which limits the estimation accuracy and generalization across different precipitation regimes. Recent deep learning (DL)-based QPE methods can capture the complex nonlinear relationships between radar reflectivity and rainfall. However, most of them overlook fundamental physical constraints, resulting in reduced robustness and interpretability. To address these issues, this paper proposes FusionQPE, a novel Physics-Constrained DL framework that integrates an adaptive Z-R formula. Specifically, FusionQPE employs a Dense convolutional neural network (DenseNet) backbone to extract multi-scale spatial features from radar echoes, while a modified squeeze-and-excitation (SE) network adaptively learns the parameters of the Z-R relationship. The final rainfall estimate is obtained through a linear combination of outputs from both the DenseNet backbone and the adaptive Z-R branch, where the trained linear weight and Z-R parameters provide interpretable insights into the model’s physical reasoning. Moreover, a physical-based constraint derived from the Z-R branch output is incorporated into the loss function to further strengthen physical consistency. Comprehensive experiments on real radar and rain gauge observations from Guangzhou, China, demonstrate that FusionQPE consistently outperforms both traditional and state-of-the-art DL-based QPE models across multiple evaluation metrics. The ablation and interpretability analysis further confirms that the adaptive Z-R branch improves both the physical consistency and credibility of the model’s precipitation estimation. Full article

This study presents a practical early-warning approach for heavy rainfall detection using the temporal dynamics of satellite-derived Cloud-Top Temperature (CTT). A rapid rise followed by a sharp fall in CTT is identified as a precursor signal of convective intensification. By quantifying the $rise-peak-fall-trough$ pattern and the $peak$-to-$trough$ amplitude ($swing$), a $\mathrm{W}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{T}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{H}$ window—representing a potential heavy-rainfall candidate period—is defined. The observed lead time between the onset of CTT decline and the subsequent radar-observed rainfall surge is calculated, while an estimated lead time is inferred from the steepness of CTT fall in the absence of a surge. Application to eight heavy rainfall events in Korea (July 2025) yielded a probability of detection (POD) of 87.5%, indicating that potential heavy rainfall could be detected approximately 1.3–8.6 h in advance. Compared with radar-based nowcasting, the CTT $\mathrm{W}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{T}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{H}$ method retained predictive skill up to 3 h before numerical model guidance became effective, suggesting that satellite-based signals can bridge the forecast gap in short-term prediction. This work demonstrates a clear methodological novelty by introducing a physical interpretable, pattern-based metric. Quantitatively, the $\mathrm{W}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{T}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{H}$ method improves early-warning capability by providing 1–3 h of additional lead time relative to radar nowcasting in rapidly evolving convective environments. Overall, this framework provides an interpretable, low-cost module suitable for operational early-warning systems and flood preparedness applications. Full article

The availability of reliable and spatially distributed rainfall data is a key element flood and landslide risk assessment, both for forecasting and post-event analysis. In this context, this study evaluates the contribution of radar-based rainfall estimates to enhancing the spatial accuracy of precipitation fields with respect to those derived from rain gauge networks alone. The analysis was conducted over a ~100 km² area in the Liguria Region, north-western Italy, characterized by a dense rain gauge network, with an average density of one gauge per 10 km², and covers seven years of hourly rainfall observations. Radar-derived rainfall fields, available at a 1 × 1 km² spatial resolution, were locally corrected across the study area by interpolating gauge-based local correction factors through an Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) scheme. The corrected radar fields were then assessed through Leave-P-Out Cross-Validation and rainfall-intensity-based classification, also simulating scenarios with progressively reduced gauge density. The results demonstrate that radar-corrected estimates systematically provide a more accurate spatial representation of rainfall, especially for high-intensity events and in capturing the actual magnitude of local rainfall peaks, even in areas covered by a dense rain gauge network. Regarding the implications for rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessment, the analysis of 56 landslides from the ITALICA (Italian Rainfall-Induced Landslides Catalogue) database showed that including radar information can lead to significant differences in the estimation of rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation compared with gauge-only data. Full article

Ground-based weather radars are essential to better understand precipitation systems, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE), and to subsequently provide input to hydrological models. However, reflectivity measured by radars is typically affected by various sources of uncertainty, including attenuation and calibration errors. Due to these limitations, the two ground-based X-band weather radars of Cyprus, namely, at Rizoelia (LCA) and Nata (PFO), have not yet been employed for QPE. This study presents a dual neural network framework with the ultimate goal of converting the ground-based radar raw reflectivity to rainfall rate, using satellite and in situ observations. The two ground-based radars are aligned with GPM DPR using the volume-matching method. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of converting raw ground-based radar reflectivity to rainfall estimates using neural networks trained with spaceborne and in situ observations. Full article

This study presents a water vapor gradient (WVG) retrieval method based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) tropospheric parameter estimation. A case study examined the method’s applicability to the extreme rainstorm event in North China in July 2023. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) and WVG data from 332 GNSS sites in this area were retrieved. Radar and precipitation data were combined to perform a spatiotemporal comparison study. The results show that GNSS PWV and WVG of this weather process were highly consistent with radar reflectivity and precipitation. When a high PWV (>60 mm) was accompanied by WVG convergence, radar reflectivity was significantly strong and precipitation occurred at the leading edge of large gradients and the convergence region. Based on the edge of big WVGs, observed by multiple GNSS stations, the location and movement of rainfall could be identified. In case of large amounts of PWV accompanied by plummeting WVG (down to 0.1–0.4 mm/km), high or persistent precipitation occurs. During the event, compared to the northern plateau, the plain region demonstrated higher PWV, lesser WVG variation, and more intense precipitation, likely caused by the topographic dynamic effect. GNSS PWV and WVG can be key indicators for short-range weather forecasting of extreme rainstorm events. Full article

The Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) aboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provides valuable three-dimensional precipitation structure data on a global scale and has been widely used in hydrometeorological research. However, due to its spatial resolution limitations and inherent algorithmic assumptions, the accuracy of GPM precipitation estimates can exhibit systematic biases, especially under complex terrain conditions or in the presence of variable precipitation structures, such as light stratiform rain or intense convective storms. In this study, we evaluated the near-surface precipitation rate estimates from the GPM-DPR Level 2A product using over 1440 min of disdrometer observations collected across China from 2021 to 2023. Based on three years of stable stratiform precipitation data from the Jinghe station, we developed a least squares linear correction model for radar reflectivity. Independent validation using national disdrometer data from 2023 demonstrated that the corrected reflectivity significantly improved rainfall estimates under light precipitation conditions, although improvements were limited for convective events or in complex terrain. To further enhance retrieval accuracy, we introduced a regionally adaptive R–Z relationship scheme stratified by precipitation type and terrain category. Applying these localized relationships to the corrected reflectivity yielded more consistent rainfall estimates across diverse conditions, highlighting the importance of incorporating regional microphysical characteristics into satellite retrieval algorithms. The results indicate that the accuracy of GPM precipitation retrievals is more significantly influenced by precipitation type than by terrain complexity. Under stratiform precipitation conditions, the GPM-estimated precipitation data demonstrate the highest reliability. The correction framework proposed in this study is grounded on ground-based observations and integrates regional precipitation types with terrain characteristics. It effectively enhances the applicability of GPM-DPR products across diverse environmental conditions in China and offers a methodological reference for correcting satellite precipitation biases in other regions. Full article

Accurate and spatially consistent rainfall estimation is essential for hydrological modeling and flood risk mitigation, especially in mountainous tropical regions with sparse observational networks and highly heterogeneous rainfall. This study presents a comparative analysis of six radar–gauge merging methods, including three statistical approaches—Quantile Adaptive Gaussian (QAG), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and radial basis function (RBF)—and three geostatistical approaches—external drift kriging (EDK), Bayesian Kriging (BAK), and Residual Kriging (REK). The evaluation was conducted over the Huong River Basin in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by steep terrain, monsoonal climate, and frequent hydrometeorological extremes. Two observational scenarios were established: Scenario S1 utilized 13 gauges for merging and 7 for independent validation, while Scenario S2 employed all 20 stations. Hourly radar and gauge data from peak rainy months were used for the evaluation. Each method was assessed using continuous metrics (RMSE, MAE, CC, NSE, and KGE), categorical metrics (POD and CSI), and spatial consistency indicators. Results indicate that all merging methods significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall estimates compared to raw radar data. Among them, RBF consistently achieved the highest accuracy, with the lowest RMSE (1.24 mm/h), highest NSE (0.954), and strongest spatial correlation (CC = 0.978) in Scenario S2. RBF also maintained high classification skills across all rainfall categories, including very heavy rain. EDK and BAK performed better with denser gauge input but required recalibration of variogram parameters. EQM and REK yielded moderate performance and had limitations near basin boundaries where gauge coverage was sparse. The results highlight trade-offs between method complexity, spatial accuracy, and robustness. While complex methods like EDK and BAK offer detailed spatial outputs, they require more calibration. Simpler methods are easier to apply across different conditions. RBF emerged as the most practical and transferable option, offering strong generalization, minimal calibration needs, and computational efficiency. These findings provide useful guidance for integrating radar and gauge data in flood-prone, data-scarce regions. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the microphysical structures of Meiyu heavy rainfall (near-surface rainfall intensity > 8 mm/h) across different life stages in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV). We classified the heavy rainfall events into three life stages of developing, mature, and dissipating using ERA5 reanalysis and IMERG precipitation estimates, and examined vertical microphysical structures using Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite during the Meiyu period from 2014 to 2023. The results showed that convective heavy rainfall during the mature stage exhibits peak radar reflectivity and surface rainfall rates, with the largest near-surface mass weighted diameter (D_m ≈ 1.8 mm) and the smallest droplet concentration (dBN_w ≈ 38). Downdrafts in the dissipating stage preferentially remove large ice particles, whereas sustained moisture influx stabilizes droplet concentrations. Stratiform heavy rainfall, characterized by weak updrafts, displays narrower particle size distributions. During dissipation, particle breakups dominate, reducing D_m while increasing dBN_w. The analysis of the relationship between microphysical parameters and rainfall rate revealed that convective heavy rainfall shows synchronized growth of D_m and dBN_w during the developing stage, with D_m peaking at about 2.1 mm near 70 mm/h before stabilizing in the mature stage, followed by small-particle dominance in the dissipating stage. In contrast, stratiform rainfall exhibits a “small size, high concentration” regime, where the rainfall rate correlates primarily with increasing dBN_w. Additionally, convective heavy rainfall demonstrates about 22% higher precipitation efficiency than stratiform systems, while stratiform rainfall shows a 25% efficiency surge during the dissipation stage compared to other stages. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article