Search Results (408)

This study focusses on the transmission of carbon pricing mechanisms in shaping trade dynamics between the Eurozone and key partners: the USA and China. Using Bayesian variable selection methods and a Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions (TV-SVAR) model, the research identifies the key variables impacting EU carbon emissions over time. The results reveal that manufactured products from the US have a diminishing positive impact on EU carbon emissions, suggesting potential exemption from future regulations. In contrast, manufactured goods from the US and petroleum products from China are expected to increase emissions, indicating a need for stricter trade policies. These findings provide strategic insights for policymakers aiming to balance trade and environmental objectives. Full article

Our regression analysis documents that energy policies to promote renewable energy development, as well as hydroelectric imports from Canada, lead to short-run reductions in average electricity prices (also known as merit-order effects) throughout the Northeast United States. Changes in the reliance upon renewable energy in one of the Northeast’s three interconnected electricity markets will impact wholesale prices in the other two. The retirement of a 1000 MW nuclear plant can increase prices by about 9% in the Independent System Operator of New England market and 7% in the New York Independent System Operator market in the short run at reference hubs, while also raising prices in neighboring markets. Some proposed large-scale off-shore wind farms would not only lower prices in local markets at the reference hubs modeled but would also lower prices in neighboring markets. Full article

The Carbon Emissions Trading System (ETS) serves as a market-based mechanism to drive renewable energy (RE) investments, yet its heterogeneous impacts on different stakeholders remain underexplored. This paper treats the carbon market as an exogenous shock and develops a multi-agent equilibrium model incorporating carbon pricing, encompassing power generation enterprises, power transmission enterprises, power consumers, and the government, to analyze how carbon prices reshape RE investment layouts under dual-carbon goals. Using panel data from Zhejiang Province (2017–2022), a high-energy-consumption region with 25% net electricity imports, we simulate heterogeneous responses of agents to carbon price fluctuations (CNY 50–250/ton). The results show that RE on-grid electricity increases (+0.55% to +2.89%), while thermal power declines (–4.98% to −15.39%) on the generation side. Transmission-side RE sales rise (+3.25% to +9.74%), though total electricity sales decrease (−0.49% to −2.22%). On the consumption side, RE self-generation grows (+2.12% to +5.93%), yet higher carbon prices reduce overall utility (−0.44% to −2.05%). Furthermore, external electricity integration (peaking at 28.5% of sales in 2020) alleviates provincial entities’ carbon cost pressure under high carbon prices. This study offers systematic insights for renewable energy investment decisions and policy optimization. Full article

The accurate estimation of electricity supply costs has become increasingly relevant due to growing demand, variable generation sources, and regulatory changes in emerging power systems. This study models the average unit cost of electricity supply (USD/kWh) in Ecuador using multiple linear regression techniques and ARIMAX forecasting, based on monthly data from 2018 to 2024. The regression models incorporate variables such as energy demand, generation mix, transmission costs, and regulatory indices. To enhance model robustness, we apply three variable selection strategies: correlation analysis, PCA, and expert-driven selection. Results show that all models explain over 70% of price variability, with the highest-performing regression model achieving $R^2=0.9887$. ARIMAX models were subsequently implemented using regression-based forecasts as exogenous inputs. The ARIMAX model based on highly correlated variables achieved a MAPE below 5%, showing high predictive accuracy. These findings support the use of hybrid statistical models for informed policy-making, tariff planning, and operational cost forecasting in structurally constrained energy markets. Full article

The natural gas pipeline network transmission system involved in the coordinated operation of pipeline networks and gas-fired power generation facilities is complex. It consists of multiple components, such as gas sources, users, valves, compressor stations, and pipelines. The addition of natural gas-fired power generation facilities overlaps with the high and low peak periods of civil gas, imposing dual peak-shaving pressures on pipeline networks and requiring more stringent operational control strategies for maintaining system stability. To address the aforementioned issues and improve the overall operating revenues of the system, we proposed the coordinated optimization model of gas-fired power generation facilities, pipeline networks, gas storage, and compressor stations. The optimization algorithm is written using the penalty function method of the Interior Point OPTimizer (IPOPT) solver. Meanwhile, the basic parameters of the system’s pipeline networks, users, gas storage, natural gas-fired power generation facilities, compressors, and electricity prices were input into the solver. The research results reveal that the algorithm ensures solution accuracy while accounting for computational efficiency and practical applicability. The algorithm can be used to effectively calculate the ideal coordinated operation solution, significantly improve the operating revenues of the system, and achieve safe, stable, coordinated, and efficient operation of the system. Full article

This paper examines cryptocurrency shock transmission to financial markets and the macroeconomy using a Bayesian structural VAR with Pandemic Priors from 2015 to 2024. By affecting overall risk appetite, cryptocurrency price shocks generate positive financial market spillovers, accounting for 18% of equity and 27% of commodity price fluctuations. Real economic effects are significant in driving investment but remain limited, contributing only 4% to unemployment and 6% to industrial production variance. However, cryptocurrency shocks explain 18% of price-level forecast error variance at long horizons. Narrative analysis reveals sentiment and technology as primary shock drivers. These findings demonstrate cryptocurrency’s deep financial system integration with important inflation implications for monetary policy. Full article

The global shift to low-carbon energy systems has significantly increased demand for critical raw materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements, and copper. These materials are essential for renewable technologies and energy storage. However, their extraction and processing produce significant carbon emissions and face challenges from supply chain vulnerabilities and price volatility. This review examines the complex relationship between carbon pricing mechanisms—such as carbon markets and taxes—and raw material markets. It explores the strategic importance of these materials, recent policy developments, and the transmission of carbon pricing impacts through supply chains. The review also analyzes the systemic risks created by carbon pricing, including regulatory uncertainty, market volatility, and geopolitical tensions. We then discuss financial tools and corporate strategies for managing these risks, such as carbon-linked derivatives and supply chain diversification. Finally, this review identifies key challenges and suggests future research to improve the resilience and sustainability of raw material supply chains. Here, resilience is defined as the capacity to adapt to carbon pricing volatility, geopolitical disruptions, and regulatory shocks, while maintaining operations. The paper concludes that coordinated policies and flexible risk management are urgently needed to support a reliable and sustainable energy transition. Full article

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high). We show that global geopolitical risk has both detriments and benefits sides—it is a threat and an opportunity for monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Interacted local projections (LPs) reveal short–medium-term volatility or dampening effects, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty might weaken the immediate impact of monetary policy on output and prices. In uncertain environments (e.g., high geopolitical risk), economic agents—households and businesses—may adopt a wait-and-see approach. They delay consumption and investment decisions, which could initially mute the impact of monetary policy. Agents may delay their responses until they gain more information about geopolitical developments. Once clarity emerges, they may adjust their behavior, aligning with the long-run effects observed in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Furthermore, we identify an exacerbating investor sentiment following tightening monetary policy, during global and local geopolitical episodes. The impact is even more pronounced under conditions of high domestic weakness. Evidence is extracted through a novel composite index that we construct using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our results have implications for the Central Bank’s monetary policy conduct and communication practices. Full article

This paper revisits the international finance trilemma by analyzing how different monetary policy objectives and exchange rate regimes shape the transmission of global risk shocks. Using a structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SVARX), we examine the monetary policy responses and exchange rate fluctuations of ASEAN+4 economies—China, Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong—to external shocks including U.S. monetary policy changes, oil price fluctuations, global policy uncertainty, and financial risk during 2010–2022. Economies are grouped according to their trilemma configurations: floating exchange rates with free capital flows, fixed exchange rates, and capital control regimes. Our findings broadly support the trilemma hypothesis: fixed-rate economies align with U.S. interest rate movements, capital control economies retain greater monetary autonomy, and open, floating regimes show partial responsiveness. More importantly, monetary responses vary by global shock type: U.S. monetary policy drives the most synchronized policy reactions, while oil price and uncertainty shocks produce more heterogeneous outcomes. Robustness checks include alternative model specifications, where global shocks are treated as endogenous, and extensions, such as using Japan’s monetary base as a proxy for unconventional monetary policy. These results refine the empirical understanding of the trilemma by showing that its dynamics depend not only on institutional arrangements but also on the nature of global shocks—underscoring the need for more tailored and, where possible, regionally coordinated monetary policy strategies. Full article

This paper investigates the link between commodity price volatility and stock market indices in Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on commodities such as oil, cocoa, and gold over a daily period from 2 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. In order to conduct this study, the BEKK-GARCH process is applied to test the volatility transmission across commodity and stock markets, while focusing on the asymmetry in the conditional variances of these markets. The analysis reveals a 30% increase in volatility spillovers during the COVID-19 period, highlighting significant asymmetry in conditional variances between African stock markets and global commodity markets. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that conditional variances in stock and commodity markets are asymmetrical. This study advances the literature on volatility transmission by providing novel evidence on asymmetric spillovers between African stock markets and global commodity prices, particularly during COVID-19. It offers insights into the unique role of emerging African markets in global financial interconnectedness. Full article

This paper analyzes the electricity dispatch process and the importance of predicting infrastructure construction delays and network congestion using a system dynamics methodology. Two scenarios of renewable energy integration within Colombia are examined, together with their impact on electrical generation, pricing, and the growth of transmission networks. The results indicate that delays significantly influence the system’s long-term development. Incorporating network congestion into energy dispatch significantly alters investment requirements for generation and transmission, emphasizing network constraints that an idealized dispatch would neglect. Considering congestion highlights the necessity of incorporating delays into energy planning, as these impacts are overlooked in models that fail to account for actual network limitations. This paper emphasizes the strategic significance of considering delays and congestion to attain more realistic and successful planning in extensive power networks. Full article

The widespread deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) has introduced substantial challenges to electricity pricing, grid stability, and renewable energy integration. This paper presents the first real-time quantum-enhanced electricity pricing framework for large-scale EV charging networks, marking a significant departure from existing approaches based on mixed-integer programming (MILP) and deep reinforcement learning (DRL). The proposed framework incorporates renewable intermittency, demand elasticity, and infrastructure constraints within a high-dimensional optimization model. The objective is to dynamically determine spatiotemporal electricity prices that reduce system peak load, improve renewable utilization, and minimize user charging costs. A rigorous mathematical formulation is developed, integrating over 40 system-level constraints, including power balance, transmission limits, renewable curtailment, carbon targets, voltage regulation, demand-side flexibility, social participation, and cyber-resilience. Real-time electricity prices are treated as dynamic decision variables influenced by station utilization, elasticity response curves, and the marginal cost of renewable and grid electricity. The model is solved across 96 time intervals using a quantum-classical hybrid method, with benchmark comparisons against MILP and DRL baselines. A comprehensive case study is conducted on a 500-station EV network serving 10,000 vehicles, coupled with a modified IEEE 118-bus grid and 800 MW of variable renewable energy. Historical charging data with ±12% stochastic demand variation and real-world solar/wind profiles are used to simulate realistic conditions. Results show that the proposed framework achieves a 23.4% average peak load reduction per station, a 17.9% gain in renewable utilization, and up to 30% user cost savings compared to flat-rate pricing. Network congestion is mitigated at over 90% of high-traffic stations. Pricing trajectories align low-price windows with high-renewable periods and off-peak hours, enabling synchronized load shifting and enhanced flexibility. Visual analytics using 3D surface plots and disaggregated bar charts confirm structured demand-price interactions and smooth, stable price evolution. These findings validate the potential of quantum-enhanced optimization for scalable, clean, and adaptive EV charging coordination in renewable-rich grid environments. Full article

With the soaring demand for electric power and the limited spinning reserve in the power system in Taiwan, the comprehensive management of both thermal power generation and load demand turns out to be a key to achieving the robustness and sustainability of the power system. This paper aims to design a demand bidding (DB) mechanism to collaborate between customers and suppliers on demand response (DR) to prevent the risks of energy shortage and realize energy conservation. The concurrent integration of the energy, transmission, and reserve capacity markets necessitates a new formulation for determining schedules and marginal prices, which is expected to enhance economic efficiency and reduce transaction costs. To dispatch energy and reserve markets concurrently, a hybrid approach of combining dynamic queuing dispatch (DQD) with direct search method (DSM) is developed to solve the extended economic dispatch (ED) problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through three case studies of varying system scales. The impacts of tie-line congestion and area spinning reserve are fully reflected in the area marginal price, thereby facilitating the determination of optimal load reduction and spinning reserve allocation for demand-side management units. The results demonstrated that the multi-area bidding platform proposed in this paper can be used to address issues of congestion between areas, thus improving the economic efficiency and reliability of the day-ahead market system operation. Consequently, this research can serve as a valuable reference for the design of the demand bidding mechanism. Full article

In recent years, as an important alternative to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles, new electric vehicles (NEVs) have gained widespread attention and rapid development globally. In the traditional automotive industry chain, downstream vehicle manufacturers need to master core technologies, such as engines, chassis, and transmissions. In contrast to the traditional automotive industry chain, where downstream vehicle manufacturers must master core technologies, like engines, chassis, and transmissions, the electric vehicle industry chain has evolved in a way that the development of core components is gradually separated from the vehicle manufacturers. Downstream vehicle manufacturers can now outsource key components, such as batteries, electric controls, and motors. Additionally, in terms of sales models, the electric vehicle industry chain can adopt either the traditional 4S dealership model or a direct-sales model. As the research and development of core components are increasingly separated from vehicle manufacturers, the downstream vehicle manufacturers can source components, like batteries, electric controls, and motors, externally. At the same time, they can choose to use either the traditional 4S dealership model or the direct-sales model. The underlying mechanisms and channel selection in this context require further exploration. Based on this, a mathematical model is established by incorporating terminal marketing input, product competitiveness, and after-sales service levels from the literature to solve for the optimal pricing under centralized and decentralized pricing strategies. Using numerical examples, the pricing and profit performance under different market structures are analyzed to systematically examine the impact of the electric vehicle supply chain on business operations, as well as the changes in various elements across different channels. We will focus on how after-sales services (including the spare part supply) influence the pricing strategy and profit distribution in the supply chain, aiming to provide insights into advanced manufacturing system management for manufacturing enterprises and improve the efficiency of intelligent logistics management. The research indicates that (1) The direct-sales model helps to improve the terminal marketing input, after-sales service quality, and product competitiveness for supply chain stakeholders; (2) It is noteworthy that the manufacturer’s direct-sales model also significantly contributes to lowering prices, highlighting that the direct-sales model has substantial impacts on both supply chain stakeholders and, importantly, consumers. Full article

This study employs the TVP-VAR-BK-DY spillover index model to investigate the risk spillover effects between China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) pilots and A-share listed emission-regulated enterprises. The findings reveal that, due to the nascent stage of China’s carbon market, the overall risk spillover level within the “carbon-stock” system remains low; however, dynamic risk spillovers have shown an upward trend driven by the advancement of ETS pilots. In particular, during compliance periods, enterprises that exceed their emission limits must purchase sufficient allowances on the carbon trading market to avoid high penalties for non-compliance. This creates substantial demand, which drives a rapid increase in the spot prices of carbon allowances, triggering intense short-term price fluctuations and risk spillovers—a pronounced “compliance-driven trading” effect. Frequency domain analysis indicates that long-term shocks have a significantly greater impact on the market than short-term oscillations, reflecting moderate information processing efficiency within the “carbon-stock” system. Directional spillover analysis shows that A-share enterprises initially absorb risks from the carbon market in the short term, but over the long term, they transmit part of these risks back to the carbon market, forming a significant bidirectional risk transmission relationship. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals marked differences in risk spillover contributions among firms associated with different ETS pilots, as well as between enterprises with polluting behaviors and those with high ESG scores, with the latter contributing considerably higher spillovers to the overall carbon market. These findings offer nuanced insights into the dynamic, structural, and firm-level characteristics of risk spillovers, providing valuable guidance for policymakers and investors to enhance market stability and optimize investment strategies. Full article