Search Results (111)

Interference in the local radio network (RLAN), referred to in this study as spike-type interference, is a significant problem in data from C-band weather radars, as it can degrade the accuracy of hydrometeor monitoring. The main challenge in removing these spikes is their spatial structure, particularly when they overlap with precipitation. At the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB), algorithms for removing such disturbances have been implemented as part of the RADVOL-QC system for radar data quality control. These algorithms primarily utilise polarimetric data. This paper describes them in detail and presents examples of how they work. Full article

The “spin-up” problem, in which convection-permitting models require hours to develop realistic clouds from large-scale initial fields, critically limits short-term severe weather forecasting. Cloud analysis can serve as a feasible approach to directly assimilate hydrometeor information from remote sensing retrievals. In this study, we leverage multi-source remote sensing data, including three-dimensional mosaic radar reflectivity, hourly averaged FY-2G satellite brightness temperature (black-body temperature, TBB), and FY-2G total cloud water products, within a stepwise cloud analysis initialization scheme. The scheme is implemented in a convective-scale ensemble forecasting system (CMA-Meso, 3 km resolution) for a heavy rainfall event. For each ensemble member, three-dimensional hydrometeor increments are independently generated from these remote sensing retrievals and gradually introduced over the first ten time steps, ensuring smooth coordination with the model’s dynamic thermal framework. Quantitatively, the scheme reduces near-surface Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS) errors, improves the overall predictive skill by 2.6–7.9% (maximum at the 12 h spin-up period), and increases ensemble spread by 2–5.8%, mitigating under-dispersion. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts show uniform area under the relative operating characteristic curve (AROC) improvements across all thresholds, 1.16–5.77% for light rain, 3.03–8.97% for moderate rain, and 6.00–12.07% for heavy rain, with these maxima consistently occurring at the 12 h spin-up time. Although Brier scores are marginally larger, these AROC gains confirm the enhanced discrimination of convective rainfall. At 500 hPa, CRPS reductions of 7.1–15.6% emerge after 24 h (largest 15.6% for geopotential height at 24 h), zonal wind CRPS is reduced by 2.2% at 12 h, and ensemble spread increases by 3.1–7.0% for all three variables. These improvements, particularly the pronounced benefits during the initial 12 h, demonstrate that the remote sensing-driven cloud analysis effectively shortens spin-up. Mechanistically, the gains arise from physically coordinated hydrometeor-latent heat perturbations and subsequent cloud radiation feedback that continuously regulate thermal-dynamic structures. This study establishes that assimilating diverse remote sensing data via cloud analysis is an effective approach for overcoming spin-up challenges in convective-scale ensembles. Full article

Assimilation of all-sky radiance (ASR) observations informs atmospheric states and cloud distributions; however, it does not always lead to improved analyses or forecasts. In particular, directly updating hydrometeor fields introduces substantial uncertainty into ASR assimilation. This study examines the impact of dynamic observation errors on analyses and precipitation forecasts under different hydrometeor control variable (HCV) configurations. Observation errors are prescribed using a fifth-order polynomial model as a function of a cloud impact parameter, allowing spatiotemporally varying (i.e., scene-dependent) errors that adapt to cloud conditions. Results indicate that dynamic observation errors generally improve cloud analyses and associated thermodynamic fields. By contrast, constant errors tend to overweight ASR observations in heavily cloud-affected regions, thereby degrading analysis quality. The advantages of dynamic errors are more pronounced when solid-phase hydrometeors are included in the HCV, as these strongly influence brightness temperature (BT) analysis and the representation of convective cloud tops. Among all experiments, those combining dynamic errors with direct updates of solid-phase hydrometeors produce the most realistic BT and reflectivity analyses, as well as the greatest improvements in precipitation forecasts. These results underscore the importance of cloud-dependent observation error modeling in ASR assimilation, particularly when solid-phase HCVs are employed. Full article

The present study investigates the statistical distribution of radar reflectivity slopes [S-Ze] in the lower troposphere along the west coast of India using a C-band radar during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons in 2024. The study period spans a range of meteorological conditions, from a drier atmosphere during pre-monsoon months to a moist atmosphere during the monsoon months, with varying updraughts and downdraughts. To investigate the S-Ze, we calculated the difference in Ze between 4 km and 2 km altitudes in the lower troposphere. The S-Ze could be either positive or negative, where, in a positive [negative] S-Ze, the Ze decreases [increases] towards the surface. The monthly variations in S-Ze from the pre-monsoon to monsoon months are observed in the lower troposphere and are higher in monsoon months compared to pre-monsoon months, which are too near the coast. The land–ocean contrasts of the vertical profiles contributing to +ve and −ve S-Ze are lower compared to north–south gradients and higher in monsoon months. The average S-Ze shows the highest +ve and −ve S-Ze magnitude near the coast among all the months. The highest magnitude in S-Ze is observed in March and April and is associated with the lower and higher numbers of vertical Ze profiles. The increase or decrease in hydrometeor size is less during the monsoon months (June, July, August, and September) compared to pre-monsoon months, where the March–April months have the highest increase or decrease in the hydrometeor’s size in the lower troposphere. The variations in the S-Ze are the combined effect of the atmospheric, thermodynamic (relative humidity (RH) and moisture flux), and dynamic conditions (zonal, meridional, and vertical velocity). Strong updraughts that carry RH to higher altitudes make the lower atmosphere drier and contribute to a +ve S-Ze; Ze tends to decrease in the lower troposphere. However, a weaker updraught or a moderate downdraught with sufficient RH provides sufficient time for hydrometeors to grow and contributes to −ve S-Ze, and Ze tends to increase in the lower troposphere. For example, in March and April, the atmosphere is dry, and we observe the largest decrease in hydrometeors near the coastal boundary. However, we also see significantly higher negative radar reflectivity slopes, and weak downdraughts provide enough time for hydrometeors to grow. In June and July, there are strong updraughts (downdraughts) with high (low) RH, making the atmosphere more conducive to a decreasing tendency in Ze and contributing to a higher fraction of +ve S-Ze. The results presented here would be an extension of the study from the satellite-based observations, revealing the extension of climatology for the inclusion of stratiform precipitation. Full article

Extreme weather events exacerbated by global warming pose severe threats to urban safety, underscoring the urgent need for highly accurate precipitation nowcasting. Short-term local heavy precipitation remains a particular challenge for traditional forecasting due to its suddenness and high disaster potential. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion framework that integrates ground-based GNSS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS-PWV) and ground-based Radar Composite Reflectivity (CR). While GNSS-PWV keenly captures pre-convective atmospheric water vapor accumulation, radar CR details the morphological distribution of hydrometeors. Specifically, we developed the Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Attention Swin U-Net (STEA-Swin) model to synergize these heterogeneous datasets over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. High-precision PWV was retrieved from 250 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) using the dual-frequency ionosphere-free Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method, achieving a strong correlation (>0.97) with ERA5 reanalysis data. Validated against measured data from the 2025 flood season, the STEA-Swin model achieved a Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.68 for torrential rain events at a +1 h forecast lead time. Notably, compared to single-source models, the Critical Success Index (CSI) and POD for torrential rain improved by 18.5% and 21.5%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that coupling deep learning with ground-based GNSS-derived atmospheric thermodynamic information can significantly enhance early warning capabilities, providing a promising technical approach for regional disaster prevention and climate resilience. Full article

Accurate classification of precipitation phase (liquid, mixed, or solid) is essential in high mountain environments, where rapid changes in elevation can lead to abrupt phase transitions over short distances, significantly affecting hydro-meteorological, ecological, and socio-economic activities. However, most existing classification schemes have not been evaluated over long periods using real observational data, but mainly through simulations. This study addresses this gap by introducing a new methodology based on X-band polarimetric radar and by validating it against real precipitation events over an extended time period. The machine learning model is trained and tested using a four-year dataset including X-band radar, Micro Rain Radar, disdrometer, and temperature profile data from the Grenoble region (French Alps). To improve the classification accuracy, three temperature profile sources were tested: lapse rates obtained from automatic weather stations, interpolation of the temperature profile from the freezing level detected by the Micro Rain Radar, and temperature profiles from the operational AROME model forecast. Three different phase classification schemes were tested: two existing schemes based on fuzzy-logic, and the new method based on random forest. Results show that the random forest method, trained with radar polarimetric variables, AROME temperature profiles, and target labels derived from Micro Rain Radar observations, achieves the highest accuracy. Despite the overall good classification results, limitations persist in identifying mixed-phase precipitation due to its transitional nature and vertical variability. Feature importance analysis indicates that temperature is the most influential variable in the classification scheme, followed by reflectivity factor measured in the horizontal plane ($Z_e)$ and differential reflectivity ($Z_{dr})$. This methodology demonstrates the potential of combining machine learning techniques with multi-instrument observations to improve hydrometeor classification in complex terrain. The approach offers valuable insights for operational forecasting, water resource management, and climate impact assessments in mountainous regions. Full article

A major scientific challenge is understanding how precipitation systems will change under global warming. In particular, extreme precipitation events associated with hail and graupel are of significant concern. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the flagGraupelHail product from the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) aboard the GPM Core Observatory using high-resolution dual-polarization observations from Multi-Parameter Phased Array Weather Radar (MP-PAWR). The analysis focused on a convective system that developed in a humid environment over the Tokyo region of Japan, providing a valuable assessment within a climatic regime that has been underrepresented in previous studies. A bias correction for MP-PAWR reflectivity, derived from XRAIN network comparisons, yielded good agreement with KuPR observations from the DPR. A new grid-matching method, suitable for comparing vertically varying hydrometeor particle types and available only for MP-PAWR, was also introduced. The comparison revealed that DPR flagGraupelHail detections generally corresponded to regions of graupel occurrence identified by the MP-PAWR GHratio, defined as the number of graupel/hail grids within a DPR observation volume, although DPR tended to detect fewer events. To improve detection performance, we introduced a new indicator, STH35-FH—the height difference between the 35 dBZ echo top and the 0 °C level—as a complementary parameter to the PTI value used to determine flagGraupelHail. Incorporating STH35-FH improved the consistency between DPR and MP-PAWR detections, reducing false positives and enhancing overall detection accuracy. These results demonstrate the value of combining ground-based and spaceborne radar observations to improve global precipitation retrievals, particularly in humid environments. This approach will contribute to more accurate global graupel/hail estimation by spaceborne precipitation radar and a better understanding of how global warming affects precipitation systems. Full article

Based on a cloud water resources (CWR) diagnostic dataset with a 1° × 1° resolution over China from 2000 to 2019, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns of CWR in the complex terrain of the North China Region. The results indicate the following: (1) CWR-related physical quantities exhibit significant seasonal differences, with most being highest in summer and lowest in winter; water vapor convergence is strongest in summer and weakest in autumn, while hydrometeor convergence is smallest in summer and largest in winter; and the water surplus (precipitation minus evaporation) is minimal and negative in spring, indicating severe spring drought. (2) At the annual scale, precipitation is highly correlated with cloud condensation (r > 0.99), and CWR variation is primarily controlled by hydrometeor influx (r > 0.99). (3) The regional annual CWR and precipitation increase at rates of 34.8 mm/10 years and 49.2 mm/10 years, respectively, but exhibit seasonal asynchrony—CWR increases in all four seasons, while precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend in winter. (4) Spatially, CWR show a pattern of “more in the south and north, less in the central region; more in the east, less in the west,” with significant increases in the central–southern parts (southern Shanxi and Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin). (5) Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals two dominant modes of CWR anomalies: a “region-wide consistent pattern” and a “north–south out-of-phase dipole pattern,” the latter being related to terrain-induced differences in water vapor transport and uplift condensation. The results statistically elucidate the distribution patterns of CWR under the influence of complex topography in NCR, providing a scientific reference for the development and utilization of regional CWR. Full article

This paper investigates the collection of aerosol particles (APs), ranging from 0.002 μm to 0.2 μm in diameter, by solid hydrometeors such as cloud ice, snow, and graupel. It specifically examines electrostatic scavenging (ESS) of APs and compares it with our previously studied scavenging by cloud droplets and raindrops. ESS by solid hydrometeors is contrasted with other scavenging mechanisms. The original two-moment aerosol scheme, which includes prognostic equations for the number and mass of APs within the numerical model, is employed in this work. It is concluded that ice crystals are most effective at electrostatic scavenging of APs compared to other solid hydrometeors. The reduction in the total mass of APs in the air caused by ESS from liquid hydrometeors exceeded six times the reduction caused by ESS from cloud ice after one hour of integration. ESS by solid hydrometeors increases the relative aerosol precipitation mass (RAPM) by less than 0.1%, whereas ESS by liquid hydrometeors raises RAPM by over 24%. Full article

To enhance the operational efficiency of the CMA-BJ3.0 regional numerical model and address the issue of short-term precipitation overforecasting caused by assimilating estimated saturated water vapor, this study investigates the assimilation of radar reflectivity mosaic data by optimizing the configuration of retrieved water vapor in the indirect assimilation scheme. A 1D (one-dimensional) Bayesian method was employed to retrieve and constrain water vapor from reflectivity observations, generating retrieved water vapor for assimilation to mitigate overforecasting biases. A case study of precipitation on 1 August 2022 was analyzed, with particular focus on comparing the innovation vector statistics, spatial patterns of analysis increments, and physical mechanisms underlying forecast differences across multiple data assimilation configurations. Results showed that an observation-background (O-B) statistical distribution closer to a Gaussian unbiased state indicated a better balance between observations and the background field. The optimized scheme corrected systematic positive biases in water vapor, curbed excessive increments, and effectively resolved the overforecasting issue by refining the initial water vapor field. Batch experiments quantitatively demonstrated that assimilating 1D Bayesian-retrieved water vapor significantly improved precipitation forecast scores, particularly for higher magnitudes (≥25.0 mm/3 h), and reduced the over-forecast within the first 6 h. While the study focused on improving short-term precipitation accuracy without considering hydrometeor impacts or convective dynamics, the 1D Bayesian method, despite its background-dependency, proved effective in correcting water vapor biases, making it a promising assimilation scheme. Full article

Cloud seeding is a targeted weather modification strategy aimed at enhancing precipitation, particularly in regions facing water scarcity. This study evaluates the impacts of wintertime cloud seeding events in the western United States, focusing on three regions: the Lake Tahoe area, the Santa Rosa Range, and the Ruby Mountains, using an integrated remote sensing approach. Ground-based AgI generators were deployed to initiate seeding, and the atmospheric responses were assessed using multispectral observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R series satellites and regional radar reflectivity mosaics derived from NEXRAD data. Satellite-derived cloud microphysical properties, including cloud top brightness temperatures, optical thickness, and phase indicators, were analyzed in conjunction with radar reflectivity to evaluate microphysical changes associated with seeding. The analysis revealed significant regional variability: Tahoe events consistently exhibited strong seeding signatures, such as droplet-to-ice phase transitions, cloud top cooling, and thickened cloud structures, often followed by increased radar reflectivity. These outcomes were linked to favorable atmospheric conditions, including colder temperatures, elevated mid-to-upper tropospheric moisture, and sufficient supercooled liquid water. In contrast, events in the Santa Rosa Range generally showed weaker responses due to warmer, drier conditions and limited cloud development, while the Ruby Mountains presented mixed outcomes. This study improves the detection of seeding impacts by characterizing microphysical changes and precipitation development, capturing the progression from initial cloud phase transitions to hydrometeor development. The results highlight the importance of aligning seeding strategies with local atmospheric conditions and demonstrate the practical value of satellite-based tools for evaluating seeding effectiveness, particularly in data-sparse regions. Overall, this work contributes to advancing both the scientific insight and operational practices of weather modification through remote sensing. Full article

The high spatial resolution of radar data enables the detailed resolution of typhoon vortices and their embedded structures; the assimilation of radar data in the initialization of numerical weather prediction exerts an important influence on the forecasting of typhoon track, intensity, and structures up to at least 12 h. For the case of typhoon Morakot (2009), Taiwan radar data was assimilated to adjust the dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the vortex in the model initialization by the three-dimensional variation data assimilation system in the Advanced Region Prediction System (ARPS). The radial wind was directly assimilated to tune the original unbalanced velocity fields through a 3-dimensional variation method, and complex cloud analysis was conducted by using the reflectivity data. The influence of radar data assimilation on typhoon prediction was examined at the stages of Morakot landing on Taiwan Island and subsequently going inland. The results showed that the assimilation made some improvement in the prediction of vortex intensity, track, and structures in the initialization and subsequent forecast. For example, besides deepening the central sea level pressure and enhancing the maximum surface wind speed, the radar data assimilation corrected the typhoon center movement to the best track and adjusted the size and inner-core structure of the vortex to be close to the observations. It was also shown that the specific humidity adjustment in the cloud analysis procedure during the assimilation time window played an important role, producing more hydrometeors and tuning the unbalanced moisture and temperature fields. The neighborhood-based ETS revealed that the assimilation with the specific humidity adjustment was propitious in improving forecast skill, specifically for smaller-scale reflectivity at the stage of Morakot landing, and for larger-scale reflectivity at the stage of Morakot going inland. The calculation of the intensity-scale skill score of the hourly precipitation forecast showed the assimilation with the specific humidity adjustment performed skillful forecasting for the spatial forecast-error scales of 30–160 km. Full article

A novel data assimilation technique is developed to assimilate MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) level two (L2) cloud products, including cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud particle effective radius (Re), cloud water path (CWP), and cloud top pressure (CTP), into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Its impact on the analysis and forecast of Typhoon Talim in 2023 at its initial developing stage is demonstrated. First, the conditional generative adversarial networks–bidirectional ensemble binned probability fusion (CGAN-BEBPF) model ) is applied to retrieve three-dimensional (3D) CloudSat CPR (cloud profiling radar) equivalent W-band (94 Ghz) radar reflectivity factor for the typhoons Talim and Chaba using the MODIS L2 data. Next, a W-band to S-band radar reflectivity factor mapping algorithm (W2S) is developed based on the collocated measurements of the retrieved W-band radar and ground-based S-band (4 Ghz) radar data for Typhoon Chaba at its landfall time. Then, W2S is utilized to project the MODIS-retrieved 3D W-band radar reflectivity factor of Typhoon Talim to equivalent ground-based S-band reflectivity factors. Finally, data assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted by using the WRF Hydrometeor and Latent Heat Nudging (HLHN) radar data assimilation technique. Verification of the simulation results shows that assimilating the MODIS L2 cloud products dramatically improves the initialization and forecast of the cloud and precipitation fields of Typhoon Talim. In comparison to the experiment without assimilation of the MODIS data, the Threat Score (TS) for general cloud areas and major precipitation areas is increased by 0.17 (from 0.46 to 0.63) and 0.28 (from 0.14 to 0.42), respectively. The fraction skill score (FSS) for the 5 mm precipitation threshold is increased by 0.43. This study provides an unprecedented data assimilation method to initialize 3D cloud and precipitation hydrometeor fields with the MODIS imagery payloads for numerical weather prediction models. Full article

This study conducted a classification analysis of hydrometeor types during a typical stratiform mixed cloud precipitation event in the rainy season using data from the Liupan Mountains micro rain radar power spectra. The primary research findings are as follows: (1) Utilizing the RaProM method synthesizes the information of particle falling velocity, equivalent radar reflection coefficient, particle scale characteristics at different stages, and the location of the bright zone in the zero-degree layer to classify hydrometeors during this precipitation process, and the results show that drizzle and raindrop distribution time periods do not match with the raindrop spectra and rain intensities observed by the DSG5 ground-based precipitation gauge. (2) Sensitivity experiments conducted on the RaProM method revealed that after modifying the discrimination thresholds for drizzle and raindrops, the distributions of drizzle and raindrops were more aligned with ground-based raindrop spectrum observations. Furthermore, these adjustments also showed better consistency with the radar reflectivity factor, Doppler velocity, and velocity spectrum width thresholds used by existing millimeter-wave cloud radars to discriminate between drizzle and raindrops. (3) Various kinds of hydrometeors show different vertical distribution characteristics in three precipitation stages: weak, strong, and weak. In the two weak precipitation stages, hydrometeors mainly existed in the form of snowflakes at altitudes above the zero-degree layer and in the form of drizzle at altitudes below the zero-degree layer. The vertical distribution disparity of hydrometeors between the mountain peak and base sites demonstrates that terrain significantly influences hydrometeors during the precipitation process. Full article

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) reduces energy production and increases wind energy operation and maintenance costs. Degradation of the blade coating and ultimately damage to the underlying blade structure are caused by collisions of falling hydrometeors with rotating blades. The selection of optimal methods to mitigate/reduce LEE are critically dependent on the rates of coating fatigue accumulation at a given location and the time variance in the accumulation of material stresses. However, no such assessment currently exists for the United States of America (USA). To address this research gap, blade coating lifetimes at 883 sites across the USA are generated based on high-frequency (5-min) estimates of material fatigue derived using a mechanistic model and robust meteorological measurements. Results indicate blade coating failure at some sites in as few as 4 years, and that the frequency and intensity of material stresses are both highly episodic and spatially varying. Time series analyses indicate that up to one-third of blade coating lifetime is exhausted in just 360 5-min periods in the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Conversely, sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exhibit the same level of coating lifetime depletion in over three times as many time periods. Thus, it may be more cost-effective to use wind turbine deregulation (erosion-safe mode) for damage reduction and blade lifetime extension in the SGP, while the application of blade leading edge protective measures may be more appropriate in the PNW. Annual total precipitation and mean wind speed are shown to be poor predictors of blade coating lifetime, re-emphasizing the need for detailed modeling studies such as that presented herein. Full article