Search Results (984)

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) adjust to the underlying behavior in the dataset using a training rule or optimizer. The most popular first-and second-order optimizers, Adam (AD) and Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), were compared with the aim of predicting extreme flash floods of a runoff-dominated hydrological system. A fully connected multilayer perceptron with a shallow structure was used to reduce complexity and limit overfitting. The inputs of the ANN were determined by rainfall–water level cross-correlation analysis. For each optimizer, the hyperparameters of the ANN were selected using a grid search and the cross-validation score on a novel criterion (PERS PEAK) mixing the persistency (PERS) and the quality of flood-peak restitution (PEAK). For an extreme and unseen event used as a test set, LM outperformed AD by 25% on all performance criteria. The peak water level of this event, 66% greater than that of the training set, was predicted by 92% after more training iterations were done by the LM optimizer. This shows that the ANN can predict beyond the ranges of the training set, given the right optimizer. Nevertheless, the LM training time was up to five times longer than that of AD during grid search. Full article

Accurate and spatially consistent rainfall estimation is essential for hydrological modeling and flood risk mitigation, especially in mountainous tropical regions with sparse observational networks and highly heterogeneous rainfall. This study presents a comparative analysis of six radar–gauge merging methods, including three statistical approaches—Quantile Adaptive Gaussian (QAG), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and radial basis function (RBF)—and three geostatistical approaches—external drift kriging (EDK), Bayesian Kriging (BAK), and Residual Kriging (REK). The evaluation was conducted over the Huong River Basin in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by steep terrain, monsoonal climate, and frequent hydrometeorological extremes. Two observational scenarios were established: Scenario S1 utilized 13 gauges for merging and 7 for independent validation, while Scenario S2 employed all 20 stations. Hourly radar and gauge data from peak rainy months were used for the evaluation. Each method was assessed using continuous metrics (RMSE, MAE, CC, NSE, and KGE), categorical metrics (POD and CSI), and spatial consistency indicators. Results indicate that all merging methods significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall estimates compared to raw radar data. Among them, RBF consistently achieved the highest accuracy, with the lowest RMSE (1.24 mm/h), highest NSE (0.954), and strongest spatial correlation (CC = 0.978) in Scenario S2. RBF also maintained high classification skills across all rainfall categories, including very heavy rain. EDK and BAK performed better with denser gauge input but required recalibration of variogram parameters. EQM and REK yielded moderate performance and had limitations near basin boundaries where gauge coverage was sparse. The results highlight trade-offs between method complexity, spatial accuracy, and robustness. While complex methods like EDK and BAK offer detailed spatial outputs, they require more calibration. Simpler methods are easier to apply across different conditions. RBF emerged as the most practical and transferable option, offering strong generalization, minimal calibration needs, and computational efficiency. These findings provide useful guidance for integrating radar and gauge data in flood-prone, data-scarce regions. Full article

Asynchrony between the movement of water and sediment in a reservoir will affect long-term maintenance of the reservoir’s capacity to a certain extent. Based on water and sediment data on the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) measured over the years and a river network model, optimization of the dispatching mode of the reservoir’s sand peak process was studied, and the corresponding water and sediment dispatching indicators were provided. The results show that (1) sand peak discharge dispatching of the TGR can be divided roughly into three stages, namely the flood detention period, the sediment transport period, and the sediment discharge period. (2) According to the process of the flood peak and the sand peak, a division method for each period is proposed. (3) A corresponding scheduling index is proposed according to the characteristics of the sand peak process and the needs of flood control scheduling. This research can provide operational indicators for the operation and management of the sediment load in the TGR and also provide technical support for sustainable reservoirs similar to TGR. Full article

Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew—a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016—to project versions of “Matthew 2100” that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate “2100” discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km²) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23–69%, with 0.4–3 m increases in water surface elevation and 8–57% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC. Full article

Flood control infrastructure is essential for the development of cities and the population’s well-being. The goal is to protect human and economic resources by reducing the inundation area and controlling the flood level and peak discharges. Detention basins can do this by storing a large volume of water to be released after the peak discharge. By doing this, a large amount of energy is stored, which can be recovered via micro-hydropower. In addition, as the release flow is controlled and almost constant, Pumps as Turbines (PAT) could be a feasible and economic option in these cases. Thus, this study investigates the feasibility of micro-hydropower (MHP) in urban detention basins, using the Santa Lúcia detention basin in Belo Horizonte as a case study. The methodology involved hydrological modeling, hydraulic analysis, and economic and environmental assessment. The results demonstrated that PAT selection has a crucial role in the feasibility of the MHP, and exploiting rainfall with lower intensities but higher frequencies is more attractive. Using multiple PATs with different operating points also showed promising results in improving energy production. In addition to the economic benefits, the MHP in the detention basin produces minimal environmental impact and, as it exploits a wasted energy source, it also reduces the carbon footprint in the urban water cycle. Full article

An extreme flood event occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This study evaluated the influence of this extreme flood on the design discharges in Slovenia. This evaluation was based on flood frequency analysis for the data from 33 gauging stations. Analyses were conducted with and without the 2023 peak discharge, i.e., for the periods 1961–2022 and 1961–2023, using eight different theoretical distribution functions. In addition, specific discharge values for the 2023 flood event were analyzed and compared with regional envelope curves for Europe. The findings of the study indicate that the impact of a single flood event on the design discharge values can be substantial. Moreover, an analysis of the specific discharges resulting from the 2023 flood event in Slovenia reveals that the values for all gauging stations considered are below the regional envelopes. Concurrently, the analysis indicates that a flood event larger than the 2023 event may occur in the future. Full article

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta, characterized by complex topography and hydrological conditions, is highly susceptible to recurrent flooding, particularly in its coastal regions where tidal dynamics hinder floodwater discharge. This study integrates Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery with machine learning (ML) techniques to assess near real-time flood inundation patterns associated with extreme weather events, including recent cyclones between 2017 to 2024 (namely, Mora, Titli, Fani, Amphan, Yaas, Sitrang, Midhili, and Remal) as well as intense monsoonal rainfall during the same period, across a large spatial scale, to support disaster risk management efforts. Three machine learning algorithms, namely, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN), were applied to flood extent data derived from SAR imagery to enhance flood detection accuracy. Among these, the SVM algorithm demonstrated the highest classification accuracy (75%) and exhibited superior robustness in delineating flood-affected areas. The analysis reveals that both cyclone intensity and rainfall magnitude significantly influence flood extent, with the western coastal zone (e.g., Morrelganj and Kaliganj) being most consistently affected. The peak inundation extent was observed during the 2023 monsoon (10,333 sq. km), while interannual variability in rainfall intensity directly influenced the spatial extent of flood-affected zones. In parallel, eight major cyclones, including Amphan (2020) and Remal (2024), triggered substantial flooding, with the most severe inundation recorded during Cyclone Remal with an area of 9243 sq. km. Morrelganj and Chakaria were consistently identified as flood hotspots during both monsoonal and cyclonic events. Comparative analysis indicates that cyclones result in larger areas with low-level inundation (19,085 sq. km) compared to monsoons (13,829 sq. km). However, monsoon events result in a larger area impacted by frequent inundation, underscoring the critical role of rainfall intensity. These findings underscore the utility of SAR-ML integration in operational flood monitoring and highlight the urgent need for localized, event-specific flood risk management strategies to enhance flood resilience in the GBM delta. Full article

Accurate prediction of wave overtopping rates is essential for flood risk assessment along coral reef coastlines. This study quantifies the uncertainty sources affecting overtopping rates for vertical seawalls on reef flats, using ensemble simulations with a validated non-hydrostatic SWASH model. By generating extensive random wave sequences, we identify spectral resolution, wave spectral width, and wave groupiness as the dominant controls on the uncertainty. Statistical metrics, including the Coefficient of Variation ($CV$) and Range Uncertainty Level ($RUL$), demonstrate that overtopping rates exhibit substantial variability under randomized wave conditions, with $CV$ exceeding 40% for low spectral resolutions (50–100 bins), while achieving statistical convergence ($CV$ around 20%) requires at least 700 frequency bins, far surpassing conventional standards. The $RUL$, which describes the ratio of extreme to minimal overtopping rates, also decreases markedly as the number of frequency bins increases from 50 to 700. It is found that the overtopping rate follows a normal distribution with 700 frequency bins in wave generation. Simulations further demonstrate that overtopping rates increase by a factor of 2–4 as the JONSWAP spectrum peak enhancement factor ($\gamma$) increases from 1 to 7. The wave groupiness factor ($GF$) emerges as a predictor of overtopping variability, enabling a more efficient experimental design through reduction in groupiness-guided replication. These findings establish practical thresholds for experimental design and highlight the critical role of spectral parameters in hazard assessment. Full article

The Eastern Huang–Huai region of China is a representative mining area with a high groundwater level. High-intensity underground mining activities have not only induced land cover and land use changes (LUCC) but also significantly changed the watershed hydrological behavior. This study integrated the land use prediction model PLUS and the hydrological simulation model MIKE 21. Taking the Bahe River Watershed in Huaibei City, China, as an example, it simulated the hydrological response trends of the watershed in 2037 under different land use scenarios. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The land use predictions for each scenario exhibit significant variation. In the maximum subsidence scenario, the expansion of water areas is most pronounced. In the planning scenario, the increase in construction land is notable. Across all scenarios, the area of cultivated land decreases. (2) In the maximum subsidence scenario, the area of high-intensity waterlogging is the greatest, accounting for 31.35% of the total area of the watershed; in the planning scenario, the proportion of high-intensity waterlogged is the least, at 19.10%. (3) In the maximum subsidence scenario, owing to the water storage effect of the subsidence depression, the flood peak is conspicuously delayed and attains the maximum value of 192.3 m³/s. In the planning scenario, the land reclamation rate and ecological restoration rate of subsidence area are the highest, while the regional water storage capacity is the lowest. As a result, the total cumulative runoff is the greatest, and the peak flood value is reduced. The influence of different degrees of subsidence on the watershed hydrological behavior varies, and the coal mining subsidence area has the potential to regulate and store runoff and perform hydrological regulation. The results reveal the mechanism through which different land use scenarios influence hydrological processes, which provides a scientific basis for the territorial space planning and sustainable development of coal mining subsidence areas. Full article

As the largest freshwater lake in China, Poyang Lake plays a crucial role in hydrological processes. Conventional models often fail to capture the time-lagged relationships between meteorological drivers and runoff responses, while lacking regional generalization capability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel XAJ-LSTM-TFM hybrid model that accounts for time-lagged hydrological responses and enhances the regional applicability of the Xinanjiang model. The model innovatively integrates the physical mechanisms of the Xinanjiang model with the temporal learning capacity of LSTM networks. By incorporating intermediate hydrological variables (including interflow and groundwater flow) along with 1–3 day lagged meteorological features, the model achieves an average 15.3% improvement in Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) across five sub-basins, with the Ganjiang Basin attaining an NSE of 0.812 and a 25.7% reduction in flood peak errors. The results demonstrate superior runoff simulation performance and reliable generalization capability under intensive anthropogenic activities. Full article

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) via CO₂ flooding is a promising strategy for improving hydrocarbon recovery and carbon sequestration, yet the influence of pH on solid–liquid interfacial interactions in quartz-dominated reservoirs remains poorly understood. This study employs molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the pH-dependent adsorption behavior of crude oil components on quartz surfaces and its impact on CO₂ displacement mechanisms. Three quartz surface models with varying ionization degrees (0%, 9%, 18%, corresponding to pH 2–4, 5–7, and 7–9) were constructed to simulate different pH environments. The MD results reveal that aromatic hydrocarbons exhibit significantly stronger adsorption on quartz surfaces at high pH, with their maximum adsorption peak increasing from 398 kg/m³ (pH 2–4) to 778 kg/m³ (pH 7–9), while their alkane adsorption peaks decrease from 764 kg/m³ to 460 kg/m³. This pH-dependent behavior is attributed to enhanced cation–π interactions that are facilitated by Na⁺ ion aggregation on negatively charged quartz surfaces at high pH, which form stable tetrahedral configurations with aromatic molecules and surface oxygen ions. During CO₂ displacement, an adsorption–stripping–displacement mechanism was observed: CO₂ first forms an adsorption layer on the quartz surface, then penetrates the oil phase to induce the detachment of crude oil components, which are subsequently displaced by pressure. Although high pH enhances the Na⁺-mediated weakening of oil-surface interactions, which leads to a 37% higher diffusion coefficient (8.5 × 10⁻⁵ cm²/s vs. 6.2 × 10⁻⁵ cm²/s at low pH), the tighter packing of aromatic molecules at high pH slows down the displacement rate. This study provides molecular-level insights into pH-regulated adsorption and CO₂ displacement processes, highlighting the critical role of the surface charge and cation–π interactions in optimizing CO₂-EOR strategies for quartz-rich reservoirs. Full article

This study investigates the dynamic response mechanisms of discharge capacity in the Han River Estuary to hydrological process changes at the Yangtze–Han River confluence. By constructing a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 265 km Xinglong–Hankou reach, we quantitatively decouple the synergistic effects of riverbed scouring (mean annual incision rate: 0.12 m) and Three Gorges Dam (TGD) operation through four orthogonal scenarios. Key findings reveal: (1) Riverbed incision dominates discharge variation (annual mean contribution >84%), enhancing flood conveyance efficiency with a peak flow increase of 21.3 m³/s during July–September; (2) TGD regulation exhibits spatiotemporal intermittency, contributing 25–36% during impoundment periods (September–October) by reducing Yangtze backwater effects; (3) Nonlinear interactions between drivers reconfigure flow paths—antagonism occurs at low confluence ratios (R < 0.15, e.g., Cd increases to 45 under TGD but decreases to 8 under incision), while synergy at high ratios (R > 0.25) reduces Hanchuan Station flow by 13.84 m³/s; (4) The 180–265 km confluence-proximal zone is identified as a sensitive area, where coupled drivers amplify water surface gradients to −1.41 × 10⁻³ m/km (2.3× upstream) and velocity increments to 0.0027 m/s. The proposed “Natural/Anthropogenic Dual-Stressor Framework” elucidates estuary discharge mechanisms under intensive human interference, providing critical insights for flood control and trans-basin water resource management in tide-free estuaries globally. Full article

With ongoing global warming, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and associated debris flows pose increasing threats to downstream communities and infrastructure. Glacial lakes differ in their triggering factors and breach mechanisms, necessitating event-specific analysis. This study investigates the GLOF risk of Jiongpuco Lake, located in the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, using an integrated approach combining remote sensing, field surveys, and numerical modeling. Results show that the lake has expanded significantly—from 2.08 km² in 1990 to 5.43 km² in 2021—with the most rapid increase observed between 2015 and 2016. InSAR data and optical imagery indicate that surrounding moraine deposits remain generally stable. However, ice avalanches from the glacier terminus are identified as the primary trigger for lake outburst via wave-induced overtopping. Mechanical and geomorphological analyses suggest that the moraine dam is resistant to downcutting erosion, reinforcing overtopping as the dominant failure mode. To assess potential impacts, three numerical simulation scenarios were conducted based on different avalanche volumes. Under the extreme scenario involving a 5-million m³ ice avalanche, the modeled peak discharge at the dam site reaches approximately 19,000 m³/s. Despite the high flood magnitude, the broad and gently sloped downstream terrain facilitates rapid attenuation of flood peaks, resulting in limited impact on downstream settlements. These findings offer critical insights for GLOF hazard assessment, disaster preparedness, and risk mitigation under a changing climate. Full article

Background: In September 2023, Storm Daniel triggered catastrophic flooding across Thessaly, in central Greece, leading to the deaths of approximately 483,476 animals and heightening concerns about zoonotic diseases, particularly Q fever caused by Coxiella burnetii. Sofades, a municipality in the Karditsa region that is severely impacted by the floods, emerged as a critical area for evaluating the risk of zoonotic disease transmission. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence status of Coxiella burnetii Phase 1 IgA antibodies among residents in the rural area of Sofades after the Daniel floods. Methods: Serum samples were obtained from a convenient sample of residents with livestock exposure between 1 March and 31 March 2024. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect Coxiella burnetii Phase 1 IgA antibodies. Descriptive analyses summarized demographic data, and logistic regression was employed to examine the association between gender, age, and positive ELISA results. Results: The overall seroprevalence was 16.66%. Males had a significantly higher positivity rate (28.57%) than females (6.25%). Seropositivity was more frequent among individuals aged 41–80 years, with peak prevalence observed in the 61–80 age group. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study offers a snapshot of Coxiella burnetii exposure in a high-risk rural population post-flood. The slightly higher seroprevalence in Sofades (16.66%) compared to Karditsa (16.1%) suggests limited influence of environmental factors on transmission. Despite limitations in causal inference, the findings highlight the need for enhanced surveillance and targeted public health measures. Longitudinal studies are needed to assess the long-term impact of environmental disasters on Q fever dynamics. Full article

The remote sensing inversion of the Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) at the Yellow River estuary is crucial for regional sediment management and the advancement of monitoring techniques for highly turbid waters. Traditional in situ methods and low-resolution imagery are no longer sufficient for high-accuracy studies. Using SSC data from the Longmen Hydrological Station (2019–2020) and Sentinel-2 imagery, multiple models were compared, and the random forest regression model was selected for its superior performance. A non-parametric regression model was developed based on optimal band combinations to estimate the SSC in high-sediment rivers. Results show that the model achieved a high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.94) and met accuracy requirements considering the maximum SSC, MAPE, and RMSE. The B4, B7, B8A, and B9 bands are highly sensitive to high-concentration sediment rivers. SSC exhibited significant seasonal and spatial variation, peaking above 30,000 mg/L in summer (July–September) and dropping below 1000 mg/L in winter, with a positive correlation with discharge. Spatially, the SSC was higher in the gorge section than in the main channel during the flood season and higher near the banks than in the river center during the dry season. Overall, the random forest model outperformed traditional methods in SSC prediction for sediment-laden rivers. Full article